Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
  • Like
Nr can final
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Now you can save presentations on your phone or tablet

Available for both IPhone and Android

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply
Published

 

Published in Business , Technology
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
204
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0

Actions

Shares
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide
  • Ce graphique résume beaucoup de choses. La lecture de gauche à droite situe les pays dans le cadre de l’indice des Nations Unies sur le développement (IDH), selon lequel il faut que le pays soit au-dessus de 0,8 pour signifier l’atteinte d’un niveau de vie acceptable. La lecture du bas vers le haut présente l’empreinte écologique des pays. Une mauvaise orientation du développement verrait les pays pauvres atteindre le niveau de consommation des pays riches, remplissant la partie vide du graphique – un dépassement inconcevable de la capacité de support de la planète. Les arbitrages seront complexes pour trouver un autre issu…. Source: WWF International, Zoological Society of London, Global Footprint Network (2006), Living Planet Report , p.19. http://assets.panda.org/downloads/living_planet_report.pdf http://assets.panda.org/downloads/living_planet_report.pdf
  • Source: An Introduction to the World Conservation Strategy , United Nations Environment Programme, p. 10
  • Source: An Introduction to the World Conservation Strategy , United Nations Environment Programme, p. 10
  • Ce graphique (en anglais, faute de capacité à le refaire) est compliqué, et présente le retour sur l’investissement énergétique (EROI), soit le rapport entre la quantité d’énergie utilisable, obtenue d’un vecteur d’énergie donné, et la quantité d’énergie nécessaire pour son obtention. Le graphique est présenté ici « simplement » pour souligner le déclin de l’EROI (axe verticale à gauche), au fur et à mesure de l’utilisation des sources d’énergie fossile depuis 75 ans. En 1930, les États-Unis retiraient environ 100 barils de pétrole pour l’équivalent d’un baril investi. Aujourd’hui le pays consomme de plus en plus de ces ressources (la consommation en quads indiquée à l’extrême droite), ses réserves en sont extrêmement réduites et les importations comportent des ÉROI entre 15 (pétrole) et 20 (gaz); le retour sur l’investissement est cinq fois moins qu’en 1930. Le coin en bas à gauche montre où se situent les deux courants nord-américains actuels, soit les sables bitumineux et les biocarburants. Ceux-ci ont des EROI tellement bas qu’ils ne répondent pas dans leur production au minimum de retour sur l’investissement requis pour la civilisation, selon cet auteur, et se place au niveau d’une société de paysanne. Le charbon, très polluant, reste abondant et représente soit un défi soit une menace pour l’ensemble des pays. Source : Hall C.A.S., Cleveland C.J. (2005), EROI: definition, history and future implications. Présenté à ASPO-US conference, Denver November 10, 2005 http://www.esf.edu/efb/hall/talks/EROI6a.ppt#467,22
  • Cette carte, ègalement tirée de The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conflict After the Cold War ( carte 5.2, p. 59) , produit par Population Action International, présente un portrait des pays où la croissance démographique entraîne une situation où l’accès aux terres agricoles devient de plus en plus problématique. L’urbanisation massive prévue pour les prochaines décennies découle en partie de cette situation. Plus la couleur est foncée, plus le stress et le risque sont importants. Encore une fois, l’alimentation est en question. Les deux cartes montrent bien que les problèmes vont se rencontrer dans les pays du Sud. Les pays industrialisés, en particulier l’Amérique du Nord, sont en large partie épargnés ces stress, même si le Sud-ouest des États-Unis , voire le Sud-est, connaissent des problèmes. Voir: http://www.populationaction.org/Publications/Reports/The_Security_Demographic/Summary.shtml
  • Cette carte tirée de The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conflict After the Cold War ( carte 5.1, p. 57) , produit par Population Action International, présente un portrait des pays où la croissance démographique comporte une situation où l’accès à l’eau potable devient de plus en plus problématique, et est associé à des pénuries selon la situation. Plus la couleur est foncée, plus le stress et le risque sont importants. L’alimentation est en question. Voir: http://www.populationaction.org/Publications/Reports/The_Security_Demographic/Summary.shtml

Transcript

  • 1. Economic Conditions Political Decisions Environmental Losses Presentation by Harvey Mead OECD Workshop on Best Practices for Assessing Sustainability of Biobased Products Montreal July 23-24, 2009 Delta Centre-ville
  • 2. Bioproducts and the Club of Rome
  • 3. The Fat Planet 2009: Our Footprint = 1.3 Planets Source: Living Planet Report, WWF, Zoological Society of London, Global Footprint Network (2006)
  • 4. The per capita Ecological Footprint
  • 5. Including that of most of humanity
  • 6. Footprints of OECD Countries
  • 7. Footprint With BAU Scenario: 2040 = 2x Earth’s Biocapacity
  • 8. The ecological footprint and the Index of Human Development Canada
  • 9. Mainstream Environmentalism: Incapable of coping …
    • It is no accident that environmental crisis is gathering as social injustice is deepening and growing inequality is impairing democratic institutions. Each is the result of a system of political economy--today's capitalism--that is profoundly committed to profits and growth and profoundly indifferent to nature and society…. While environmentalists have been winning many battles, we are losing the planet…. The escalating processes of climate disruption, biotic impoverishment and toxification--which continue despite decades of warnings and earnest effort--are a severe indictment of capitalism…. An ever growing world economy … is undermining the ability of the planet to sustain life.
    • James Gustave Speth , “ Global Warming and Modern Capitalism”, in The Nation, October 6, 2008
  • 10. … and your economic criteria fail to look at the global context
    • Recognizing that advances in biotechnology and genetics offer much promise for sustainable growth and development … - first premise of draft recommendation
    • The development of a bioeconomy [is] necessary if OECD countries are to achieve long-term economic growth (that also addresses environmental and social needs) … - first sentence of the workshop plan
    • This
      • in spite of 60 years of failed development for most of humanity
      • in spite of the fact that growth has not produced its promised results
  • 11. Growth and the criteria of the HDI For the following graphs: Jean Gadrey, « Croissance de la richesse économique ou « bien-être durable pour tous! »? », February 2009
  • 12. Growth and the criteria of the HDI
  • 13. Growth and the criteria of the HDI
  • 14. Growth and the criteria of the HDI
  • 15. Growth and the criteria of the HDI
  • 16. Your Work: A response to peak oil by the United States and Europe
    • The United Sates industry has had a particular interest in developing biobased products. On the one hand, consumers have been calling for “green products” with a lighter environmental footprint. For competitive reasons, industry has been eager to develop such products. Industry also has recognized that the United States may never again be price-competitive on petroleum and natural gas feedstocks for developing petrochemical products against oil and gas supplies in certain other areas of the world . Both oil and natural gas production costs seem likely to remain lower in several areas of the world such as Russia, West Africa, and the Middle East than in the United States. A number of these countries currently are pursuing a development policy focused on exploiting their economic advantage in petroleum and natural gas production by moving downstream in the industry to develop petrochemical industries to serve world markets. On the other hand, U.S. industry seems convinced that the United States can meet world-class feedstock competition in the production of bio-based feedstocks for its chemical industries.  This is their fundamental point of departure , replacing oil with bio…. USDA paper (Duncan, Conway et al)
  • 17. And it’s not just peak oil that’s involved
    • Homer-Dixon’s tectonic stresses
      • population stress (growth rates and megacities)
      • energy stress (declining EROI et scarcity)
      • environmental stresses (fisheries, forests, land, water)
      • climate stress
      • economic stress (instability of financial system, inequity)
    • And their multipliers
      • Rising speed and global connectivity
      • Escalating power of small groups to destroy
    Thomas Homer-Dixon, The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization (2006)
  • 18. The same old story …
    • Energy Independence and Security Act (2007):
      • 36 billions gallons of biofuels in 2022, 15 from corn-based ethanol and 21 from cellulose, relative to oil …
      • decision made for political reasons, environmental – and even economic - assessment coming in downstream
    • PROBIP 2008 projections for bioplastics:
      • 420 kt in 2007, 4175 kt in 2020
    • Biofuel Directive of the EU: 10% for 2020
    • The calculations on land needed for replacing oil with ethanol?
      • putting off the decision(s)
    • Look again at NAFTA, Doha, Kyoto-Copenhagen
  • 19. Sustainability, Brundtland and Crises
    • Brundtland commission report in 1987
      • Numerous crises in need of urgent response
    • GEO4 report in 2007, twenty years after
      • All the crises still there, it’s probably too late
    • Report from first OECD workshop in 2003
      • t he way one views sustainability
      • how one frames the question of sustainability
    • Your comprehensive approach not comprehensive
      • LCA a serious approach
      • The three-stool conception inadequate: no indications of life cycle
  • 20. Early sustainability for ecological economists - 1 Matières Énergie Matières Énergie ÉCONOMIE ENVIRONNEMENT CHALEUR ÉNERGIE SOLAIRE
  • 21. Sustainability earlier on for ecological economists - 2 Matières Énergie Matières Énergie ÉCONOMIE ENVIRONNEMENT ÉNERGIE SOLAIRE CHALEUR
  • 22. Silicon Valley : Open Earth Source: An Introduction to the World Conservation Strategy, United Nations Environment Programme, p. 10.
  • 23. Today’s lack of sustainability for ecological economists - 3 ÉNERGIE SOLAIRE Matières Énergie Matières Énergie ÉCONOMIE ENVIRONNEMENT CHALEUR
  • 24. Silicon Valley : Full Earth Source: An Introduction to the World Conservation Strategy, United Nations Environment Programme, p. 10.
  • 25. Energy return on investment (EROI) : Things have changed since 1930 Retour sur l’investissement énergétique (EROI)
  • 26. The missing figures before starting your work
    • IIASA estimates (German report, p.47) perhaps 13% of total land area not cultivated suitable for agriculture
      • German report proposes that this is almost all primary forest which will be under pressure (next slides)
    • Population is expected to increase unsustainably by almost 50%, independently of biofuels, bioproducts, increasingly meat-based diet - we’ll lose them anyway
    • Conclusion: There is no land available for bioproducts
      • Eliminate biofuels
      • Focus on some biochemicals (what we should be doing already, with oil and gas – wasteful as fuel)
  • 27. Our Occupation of the Planet (Source: German report, p.47)
  • 28. “ Highest potential of biomass production … in exactly those zones with very high or high biodiversity” Source: German report, p.57
  • 29. Zones At Risk On the Planet For Land and Food This slide and the next one: R, Cincotta, R. Engelman, D. Anastasion, The Security Demographic , Population Action International (2003)
  • 30. Zones At Risk On the Planet For Water and Food
  • 31. Bioproducts in Borneo 1985-2005
  • 32. German Report on Biofuels
    • 800 studies looked at
    • Legislators will link biofuels integration with binding confirmation of:
      • sustainable management of agricultural areas;
      • protection of natural biospheres in the production of the biomass used (protection = 10%?);
      • specific CO2 reduction potential.
    • Such results never experienced - enormous challenges (and cf. ADEME in September):
      • meaning of “area of high natural value”
      • stricter certification = lower market share (FSC 2%) or government adoption
  • 33. Sustainable management of agricultural land: Jakarta:1976-2004
  • 34. Protection of natural biosphere areas (forests, grasslands, …)
  • 35. Preliminary Questions Remaining Apparently Unasked, Unanswered
    • What surface area is needed for biofuels to replace oil?
    • What surface area is left for chemical bioproducts to replace petrochemicals? They’ll need biofuels….
    • How much land needed to accommodate increasing population at their present standard of living?
    • How much further land needed to allow poor populations to reach a decent standard of living?
    • What is the productivity of cereals by comparison with oil?
    • What is the ‘oil content’ of cereals (life cycle)?
    • What is the potential of GMOs to provide bioproducts capable of rivaling oil?
  • 36. The Fat Planet 2009: Our Footprint = 1.3 Planets Source: Living Planet Report, WWF, Zoological Society of London, Global Footprint Network (2006)