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Ipe18 Ipe18 Presentation Transcript

  • Technology and the rise and fall of Nations Y376 International Political Economy April 4, 2012 Michael Lee
  • Summary Why do economies grow (or fail to grow)? Historical patterns Why do some countries innovate while others do not? Why did America lead the Fordist revolution Why did America lead the ICT revolution? What is the next big thing?
  • Discuss “Computer chips, potato chips. What does it matter? They’re all chips!” Does it matter which industries the US is successful in?
  • Types of economic growth Smithian  Division of labor Solovian  Diminishing returns to capital  convergence Schumpeterian  Endogenous growth theory  Process vs. product  Geopolitical implications
  • Discussion Why did Britain decline in the 20th century? Why did the Soviet Union fail to catch the US? Japan? Do the same forces threaten American leadership?
  • Soviet and US GDP per capita, 1946- 2006
  • Relative production of high-tech goods, 1830-2007
  • Relative ownership of global foreign investment assets, 1829-2007
  • Sussex school http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=- AAyUN7wj9I Irruption  frenzy  crisis  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5L0IvI00AY4& feature=related  (21:00) Crisis  Synergy  maturity  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sICSyC9u5iI  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONZFkqzuMjI
  • Past technological revolutionsTechnology Period Leading country CrisisTextiles, pig iron 1771 Britain Canal maniaSteam and 1829 Britain  USA Railway maniaRailroadsSteel, electricity 1875 Britain  Baring crisis ofand heavy USA/Germany 1890engineeringOil and mass 1908 USA Great DepressionproductionInformation and 1971 USA Dot com bust andtelecommunicati crisis of 2008ons
  • What kinds of things facilitate high tech growth? Property rights Access to capital Education (elite vs. median) Tax/subsidy policy Leading cities Catch-up vs. leadership Political cohesion
  • Some plausible drivers of growth don’t hold up (researchers/1000 people, OECD countries)
  • Competitiveness in Important industries historically Synthetic dye  Aniline red  Copyright rules Automobiles  Mass production  Engineering vs. pure research ICT  Venture capitalism  Hardware vs. software
  • Global synthetic dye population, 1857-1914
  • Motor vehicle production, 1930-1990
  • ICT value-added, 1985-2007
  • Question What is the next “big thing”? Who will get there first?