The Political Economy of a Green RevolutionPol376: International Political Economy April 2, 2012 Michael Lee
Summary Global Warming Possible solutions Friedman and a “Green New Deal” Obstacles to a Green Revolution Ideational Implementation Political International A green opportunity?
Negative externalities ofdirty energy consumption
What are the negative externalities of filling up a tank of gas? Global warming Other pollutants Foreign policy Petro-dictatorship Complexity
Hot, Flat and Crowded Rise of China Green new deal Competitive advantage http://video.nytimes.com/video/2007/04/10/maga zine/1194817107532/the-power-of-green.html Energy internet Carbon tax/price floors Regulation/incentives
Other approaches to climate change Doing nothing Cap and trade Government intervention Geo-engineering
Battle of ideas Climate science Skeptics Deniers Cornucopians Lomborg “Climategate” Hockey stick Environmental tradeoffs
Temperature since 1000 CE, multiple sources
Implementation problems Variable generation, constant demand Government picking winners Green bubbles Spain Czech Republic
Ontario wind energy as % of capacity: variable energy generation, regular demand
Does a green public lead to green policies? (WVS) Early 90s Late 90s Late 00sFrance 54.4% 37.6% (no data)China 82.4% 74.3% 73.7%USA 63.9% 60.9% 49.8%Canada 63.7% 58.1% 65.7%
Pricing carbon: a tough sell USA Cap and trade http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/111/hou se/1/477 Sectoral/regional costs Canada Green tax shift (carbon tax) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=os5vXksQwts& feature=relmfu
If you were building a politicalcoalition of green interests, what would it look like?
Past international efforts Global collective action problems Montreal protocol (Ozone), 1987 Acid rain treaty (S02, NOx), 1991 http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progress/arp03. html Kyoto protocol (C02), 1997 Copenhagen (C02), 2009
Human C02 emissions since 1850
Why was Kyoto unsuccessful, while previous agreements succeeded?
Country C02/person StatusUS 18.9 Signed, did not ratifyCanada 16.9 Ratified, dropped outJapan 9.8 Failed to meet targetGermany 9.6 Met targetUK 8.9 Exceeded targetFrance 6 Exceeded target
Are there competitive advantages to going green?
Who has a comparative advantage in solar power?
Annual Average windspeed
Summary Academic consensus may not translate into public acceptance Hard to implement Tricky international and domestic distributional politics