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Ipe17

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  • 1. The Political Economy of a Green RevolutionPol376: International Political Economy April 2, 2012 Michael Lee
  • 2. Summary Global Warming Possible solutions Friedman and a “Green New Deal” Obstacles to a Green Revolution  Ideational  Implementation  Political  International A green opportunity?
  • 3. Negative externalities ofdirty energy consumption
  • 4. What are the negative externalities of filling up a tank of gas? Global warming Other pollutants Foreign policy Petro-dictatorship Complexity
  • 5. Hot, Flat and Crowded Rise of China Green new deal Competitive advantage http://video.nytimes.com/video/2007/04/10/maga zine/1194817107532/the-power-of-green.html Energy internet Carbon tax/price floors Regulation/incentives
  • 6. Other approaches to climate change Doing nothing Cap and trade Government intervention Geo-engineering
  • 7. Battle of ideas Climate science Skeptics  Deniers  Cornucopians  Lomborg “Climategate” Hockey stick Environmental tradeoffs
  • 8. Temperature since 1000 CE, multiple sources
  • 9. Implementation problems Variable generation, constant demand Government picking winners Green bubbles  Spain  Czech Republic
  • 10. Ontario wind energy as % of capacity: variable energy generation, regular demand
  • 11. Does a green public lead to green policies? (WVS) Early 90s Late 90s Late 00sFrance 54.4% 37.6% (no data)China 82.4% 74.3% 73.7%USA 63.9% 60.9% 49.8%Canada 63.7% 58.1% 65.7%
  • 12. Pricing carbon: a tough sell USA  Cap and trade  http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/111/hou se/1/477  Sectoral/regional costs Canada  Green tax shift (carbon tax)  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=os5vXksQwts& feature=relmfu
  • 13. If you were building a politicalcoalition of green interests, what would it look like?
  • 14. Past international efforts Global collective action problems Montreal protocol (Ozone), 1987 Acid rain treaty (S02, NOx), 1991 http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progress/arp03. html Kyoto protocol (C02), 1997 Copenhagen (C02), 2009
  • 15. Human C02 emissions since 1850
  • 16. Why was Kyoto unsuccessful, while previous agreements succeeded?
  • 17. Country C02/person StatusUS 18.9 Signed, did not ratifyCanada 16.9 Ratified, dropped outJapan 9.8 Failed to meet targetGermany 9.6 Met targetUK 8.9 Exceeded targetFrance 6 Exceeded target
  • 18. Are there competitive advantages to going green?
  • 19. Who has a comparative advantage in solar power?
  • 20. Annual Average windspeed
  • 21. Summary Academic consensus may not translate into public acceptance Hard to implement Tricky international and domestic distributional politics