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Ipe17 Ipe17 Presentation Transcript

  • The Political Economy of a Green RevolutionPol376: International Political Economy April 2, 2012 Michael Lee
  • Summary Global Warming Possible solutions Friedman and a “Green New Deal” Obstacles to a Green Revolution  Ideational  Implementation  Political  International A green opportunity?
  • Negative externalities ofdirty energy consumption
  • What are the negative externalities of filling up a tank of gas? Global warming Other pollutants Foreign policy Petro-dictatorship Complexity
  • Hot, Flat and Crowded Rise of China Green new deal Competitive advantage http://video.nytimes.com/video/2007/04/10/maga zine/1194817107532/the-power-of-green.html Energy internet Carbon tax/price floors Regulation/incentives
  • Other approaches to climate change Doing nothing Cap and trade Government intervention Geo-engineering
  • Battle of ideas Climate science Skeptics  Deniers  Cornucopians  Lomborg “Climategate” Hockey stick Environmental tradeoffs
  • Temperature since 1000 CE, multiple sources
  • Implementation problems Variable generation, constant demand Government picking winners Green bubbles  Spain  Czech Republic
  • Ontario wind energy as % of capacity: variable energy generation, regular demand
  • Does a green public lead to green policies? (WVS) Early 90s Late 90s Late 00sFrance 54.4% 37.6% (no data)China 82.4% 74.3% 73.7%USA 63.9% 60.9% 49.8%Canada 63.7% 58.1% 65.7%
  • Pricing carbon: a tough sell USA  Cap and trade  http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/111/hou se/1/477  Sectoral/regional costs Canada  Green tax shift (carbon tax)  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=os5vXksQwts& feature=relmfu
  • If you were building a politicalcoalition of green interests, what would it look like?
  • Past international efforts Global collective action problems Montreal protocol (Ozone), 1987 Acid rain treaty (S02, NOx), 1991 http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progress/arp03. html Kyoto protocol (C02), 1997 Copenhagen (C02), 2009
  • Human C02 emissions since 1850
  • Why was Kyoto unsuccessful, while previous agreements succeeded?
  • Country C02/person StatusUS 18.9 Signed, did not ratifyCanada 16.9 Ratified, dropped outJapan 9.8 Failed to meet targetGermany 9.6 Met targetUK 8.9 Exceeded targetFrance 6 Exceeded target
  • Are there competitive advantages to going green?
  • Who has a comparative advantage in solar power?
  • Annual Average windspeed
  • Summary Academic consensus may not translate into public acceptance Hard to implement Tricky international and domestic distributional politics