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  • 1. Y376 IPE: Oil Politics October 15, 2009
  • 2. What Role Did Energy Politics Play in September 11? In…
    • Afghanistan
    • Central Asia
    • The Middle East
    • The Rest of the World
  • 3. Afghanistan
    • Afghanistan itself has few exportable energy resources.
    • Its main value from an energy standpoint stems from the fact that it offers a route for Caspian energy to the sea via Pakistan.
  • 4.
    • There are large deposits of oil and natural gas in the Caspian Sea region.
    • The main problem is getting these resources to markets.
    • Pipelines are required to service the large markets in North America, Europe, and E. Asia.
  • 5. Two Pipelines in Greater Detail Main participants in these two pipelines: Tengiz to Novorossiysk Russian Federation 24% Repub. Of Kazakhstan 19% Sultanate of Oman 7% Chevron 15% LUKARCO 12.5% Rosneft/Shell 7.5% Mobil 7.5% Agip 2% Turkmenistan to Pakistan: Unocal, Gazprom, Hyundai, Itochu, Delta Oil (Saudi Arabia)
  • 6. What is the Role of Saudi Arabia within OPEC?
    • It is the largest single supplier of oil.
    • The small Saudi population permits them the luxury of varying the amount of oil that they sell (thereby controlling prices):
      • When they want the price to increase they sell less
      • When they want the price to decrease they sell more
  • 7. Figure 9-10. Saudi Export Revenues and Foreign Currency Reserves, 1960-2005, in Billions of Current Dollars Source: World Development Indicators 2007 ; and Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Annual Report , Monetary and Banking Statistics .
  • 8. This Puts the United States in a Strange Position
    • The U.S. wants the price of oil to be low, and it views the Saudis as a moderates within OPEC.
    • Saudi Arabian donors funded the Mujaheddin in Afghanistan and many of the Islamic schools that were the recruiting grounds for both Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters.
  • 9. The Three Periods Period Dates Type of Governance Bretton Woods 1945-1971 Hegemonic Interdependence 1971-1989 Collective Globalization 1989-present Global
  • 10. Evolution of Subsystems Subsystems Bretton Woods Interdependence Globalization North-North Creation of US-dominated regimes Floating replaces fixed exchange-rates; Major challenges to US hegemony EU expansion and the creation of Euro; the US reemerges as hegemonic North-South Bipolar competition NIEO, OPEC, increasing gaps w/in the South Rise of Asian NICs and the Washington Consensus
  • 11. What Happens to Specific Regimes? Regimes Bretton Woods Interdependence Globalization Monetary Fixed but adjustable rates Dirty Float Dirty Float; greater concerns about crises Trade GATT GATT challenged (even by US) WTO; rise of the anti-globalization movement Investment Few rules other than retaliation Period of nationalizations TRIMs within the WTO; but MAI fails; rise of BITs