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Vision 2050

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23.04.2009 in Hannover

23.04.2009 in Hannover

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Vision 2050 Vision 2050 Presentation Transcript

  • Vision 2050: Von der physischen Mobilität zur virtuellen Präsenz. Vision 2050: From physical mobility to virtual presence. Hermann Hartenthaler, Deutsche Telekom Laboratories, Berlin Hannover, 23. April 2009; Hannover, tech transfer – Gateway2Innovation, Forum Erleben, was verbindet.
  • Overview. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories. Vision 2050. Vision 2010/2020. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 2
  • Deutsche Telekom Laboratories. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 3
  • Telekom Laboratories – industrial research rocks. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 4
  • The Telekom Laboratories projects orient themselves to Deutsche Telekom’s R&D strategy (5i). Fields of innovation (5i) ICT spectrum Technology trends Guidelines for innovation  Smart individualization  Multimodal interfaces Intuitive Usability  Sensor technology Simplify your life.  Transaction control (AAA, identity management) Integrated Service  Multimedia / content based Always best served. Components  Intelligent, convergent services  Intelligent wireless broadband networks  Network-centric service control Intelligent Access  Seamless communication Always best connected.  Home networks and home networking  Clean Slate Internet Design  Process IT High quality at Infrastructure reasonable cost.  Trustworthy areas (devices, Internet, etc.,)  Network-based protection mechanisms Inherent Security Trusted IP networks. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 5
  • The organizational structure offers an ideal environment for cooperation between industry and research in partnership. Strategic Research Innovation Development (professorships at the TU Berlin) Quality and Security in Interaction Integrated Intelligent Intuitive Intelligent Infra- Inherent Usability Telecom- Design & Service Networks Usability Access structure Security Lab munications Media Components Functional groups User Driven Innovation Innovation Methods & Tools Networking / Security / Usability Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 6
  • The people are the primary focus of our research and development work. User Driven Innovation Strategic Quality / Innovation User Research Usability Development Experience Laboratory Laboratory Design Research Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 7
  • Open Innovation: exchange of internal and external R&D services allows for a more efficient access to new and existing markets. Company boundaries New market Research Existing market projects Research Development Source: Chesbrough (2003) Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 8
  • Telekom Laboratories cooperate according to the Open Innovation model with selected research institutes. Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms- Universität Bonn Norwegian University of Science and Technology Imperial College London Technische Universität Berlin Columbia University École Nationale d’Ingénieurs de Brest Fraunhofer-Institut für Nachrichtentechnik Heinrich- Boston University Hertz-Institut Univeridad Carlos III de University of Illinois Madrid Fraunhofer-Institut für Offene Technische Universität Kommunikationssysteme Darmstadt Ben-Gurion University Stanford University Deutsches Forschungszentrum für Künstliche Intelligenz Ludwig-Maximilian-Universität München École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne Technische Universität München Universität St. Gallen Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 9
  • Technology Radar: Early detection of technological trends and changes. Market Presence Market-Ready Product Concept Applied Research Attention needed: Basic Research High Medium Low Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 10
  • Researchers and developers from around the world form an interdisciplinary team.  A good 350 scientists and Telekom experts  Average age of around 36 years  Employees from more than 50 countries  ... of which approx. 70 are research scientists with mainly short-term contracts, plus 80 thesis students, interns, guest researchers, etc.  Several sites in Berlin and Darmstadt  International team with 25 members at the Ben-Gurion University in Israel focusing on security and multimedia  Project office with 8 staff members in Silicon Valley, USA, concerned with Clean Slate Internet Design, New Media, Services and Mobile Platforms Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 11
  • The scientific work is internationally renowned. Inventions and Patents Publications Invention applications Conference proceedings 299 Patent applications Journals 3 30 Books / chapters 51 48 Other 215 36 14 36 20 33 32 138 23 5 6 23 230 17 30 158 104 3 2 2 1 4 22 2004/2005 2006 2007 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 12
  • A number of awards show the international significance.  Dr. T. Alpcan: Robert T. Chien Memorial Award and Ross J. Martin Award, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign  H. Hartenthaler: DALI Award 2007 (together with elka and ivistar)  Dr. S. Krishnamurthy: Best Paper Award “Ubiquitous Intelligence and Computing (UIC-2007)”, Hong Kong  Prof. S. Möller: DFG Heisenberg scholarship  Prof. G. Joost: 100 Köpfe von morgen  Dr. F. Metze: Voice Award for Speech-based classification  Place in the Land of Ideas in 2006, 2007 and 2008  IBC AWARD: Digital Cinema: the digital workflow in the digital  B. Freese: Best Paper Award “Multi Access Modular Services approach (MAMS), (ICIN2007)”  Dr. A. Raake: ITG award 2007 for Speech Quality of VoIP - Assessment and Prediction  Dr. F. Steinhoff: 2nd place at the Wissenschaftspreis 2008 of the Deutsche Marketing-Verband  J. Heuer: Multi-Protocol IDDY Award 2008  J. Stegmann: Anniversary VOICE Award 2008  Dr. H. Arnold: European Young Leaders Forum  Prof. G. Joost: Berlin Scientific Award of the Governing Mayor of Berlin 2008  Dr. Z. Ren: Convergators’ Awards 2009 (in the Mobile Content and audience prize categories) Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 13
  • The success of Telekom Laboratories is measured at the transfer to the Group’s business areas or to spin-offs. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 14
  • Colleagues perform research and development in different locations. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 15
  • Vision 2050. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 16
  • As the future will demonstrate, companies should be prepared. “People tend to overestimate what can be accomplished in the short run, but to underestimate what can be accomplished in the long run.” Arthur Charles Clarke “The past is a foreign country. They do things differently there.” Leslie Poles Hartley “Technology is not kind. It does not wait. It does not say please. It slams into existing systems. Often destroying them, while creating new ones.” Joseph Alois Schumpeter “The future is already here – it is just not evenly distributed yet.” William Gibson Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 17
  • The laws of economics and technological conditions determine exponential growth in our industry. Moore’s Law Gilder’s Law Metcalfe’s Law Transistor Value of network 1 US$ Bandwidth 77,000Mio. count Transistor count 2,500Mio. 75Mio. Average price 2,300 -9 10 US$ Computer power Number of users 1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 The value of a Transistors placed on an Bandwidth grows at least telecommunications network integrated circuit are doubling three times faster than is proportional to the every 24 months while prices computer power. square of the number of users are falling. of the system (n²). Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 10/19/2010 18
  • Rate of change: technology diffusion is accelerating. Adoption curves of electronic devices 4 Handheld Cell Phone (1996) (1984) Camcorder 3 (1984) million units PC 2 (1978) VCRs (1974) 1 Color TV (1955) 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Years from inception Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 19
  • A projection of trends into the future shows changes in society and in technological indicators. Last domains of analogue Trend to Digitalization media are falling (radio, newspapers, …). Personalization ends the short era of mass media. Trend to Individualization Technology decouples Trend to new Society community from proximity. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 20
  • From physical mobility to virtual presence. Scenario.  Ein Tag im Leben des Architekten Hans Erimitamo  Videokonferenz-Besprechung mit der Kollegin auf der Baustelle in Aukland; Manipulation eines holografischen Gebäude-Modells in 3D durch Gesten  gemeinsames Frühstück mit der Tochter, die in Südafrika studiert; holografische Präsenz des Vaters am Frühstückstisch; virtuelles Shopping- Terminal; Bezahlung bei T-Pay durch eine Geste; Abfrage von Produktinformationen zu einer Weinflasche über eine Geste  reales und virtuelles Surfen von Vater und Tochter  abschließende Klärung von architektonischen Problemen in einer Videokonferenz  holografischer Besuchs des Vaters bei der Tochter Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 21
  • From physical mobility to virtual presence. Communication Messages.  Digitalisierung und Virtualisierung  Kommunikation substituiert physische Mobilität  Die Welt kommt nach Hause; man selbst ist in der Welt virtuell, jederzeit und überall präsent  Kommunikations- und Informationstechnologie holen die Welt nach Hause  Physische Mobilität benötigt kostbare Ressourcen – Nachhaltigkeit durch ITK  Physische Mobilität verliert an Bedeutung und ist in 2050 ein Luxus  Daten sind mobil, nicht der Mensch  Connected Life and Work  Privatleben und Arbeitsleben verschmelzen  Enspannung und Unterhaltung sind natürliche Bestandteile des Tagesablaufs  Entfernung spielt für den Zusammenhalt in Familie und Arbeitsleben keine wesentliche Rolle mehr Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 22
  • From physical mobility to virtual presence. Anknüpfungspunkte 2010 (Folie 1 von 2).  Soziale Kontakte im Privat- und Berufsleben sind ein menschliches Grundbedürfnis  Die privaten und beruflichen Kontakte werden zunehmend global  Ressourcen wie Erdöl und Erdgas sind begrenzt und werden bis 2050 knapp  Physische Transporte kosten viel Energie und belasten die Umwelt  Telepräsenz kann viele physische Präsenzbesprechungen ersetzen  CO2-Emissionen könnten drastisch reduziert werden  bundesweit 10% weniger Personenverkehr spart 18 Millionen Tonnen CO2  Dematerialisierung oder Virtualisierung ist einzentraler Beitrag der Telekommunikationsindustrie zu einer nachhaltigen Gesellschaft Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 23
  • From physical mobility to virtual presence. Anknüpfungspunkte 2010 (Folie 2 von 2).  Die Welt kommt nach Hause: tausende von Radioprogrammen, hunderte von Fernsehprogrammen  Soziale Netzwerke über facebook, StudiVZ, twitter, XING, etc. ergänzen bereits heute die physische soziale Präsenz  Arbeiten an jedem Ort, zu jeder Zeit und in flexiblen Strukturen  Intuitive Bedienbarkeit und „natürliche“ Benutzungsschnittstellen wie Gesten- und Spracherkennung sind verfügbar  Erkennen von Gedankenmustern durch technische Geräte ist ansatzweise möglich  Stimmbanderregungsmuster können in Sprache verwandelt werden, auch ohne dass laut gesprochen wird  Holografische Projektionen ergänzen Telepräsenzsysteme  3D-Fernsehen ist in der Vorbereitung  Jederzeitiger Zugriff an jedem Ort auf alle Informationen über das Internet ist in Vorbereitung  Breitbandinfrastruktur und LTE als UMTS-Nachfolger  Internet etabliert sich als das Nervensystem der Welt von morgen Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 24
  • Vision 2010/2020. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 25
  • UICC and NFC: a convergence solution in various living scenarios based on one device for many different applications. UICC Mobile Banking Home/Entertainment Mobile Payment Access Mobile Content www Enterprise/Office Mobile Ticketing Digital Identity Fixed Mobile Convergence Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 26
  • Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 27
  • IPTV evolution: IP based TV evolution could emerge from “multi channel IPTV” to next generation’s “New TV”. IPTV Evolution Remarks Classic IPTV TV 2.0 New TV Service elements User driven content Personalization Interaction Targeting Interactive services On demand services Multi channels IPTV provider Program provider Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 28
  • Group communications: enabling more efficient and effective communications within social groups – starting with families. Mobile Concentrating on the community services essentials for group communication Location functionalities for group communication Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 29
  • Collaboration in three dimensions: Mobile, flexible and non-hierarchical work environment. Dimensions of Future Work Properties mobile  Work is independent of time everywhere, at any and location time, flexible location  Flexible organizations fixed location, fixed  Teamwork is cross-functional time, hierarchical time and non hierarchical flexible structure  Information is pervasively available (everywhere and at non hierarchical any time) Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 30
  • Fusing reality and virtuality in the work environment: More effi- ciency through integrated services and innovative infrastructure. Communication Information Technology Technology Innovative Workplace- Efficient services Infrastructure operation Building and Media Technology Security Technology Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 31
  • Sustainability via a powerful infrastructure. Workplace at Home TelePresence and Video Conferencing Work wherever you want ! Save time and costs ! Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 32
  • Thank You! Welcome at booth E22! Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 33