Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q3 - 2011
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Colliers Residential MarketShare Q3 - 2011

202
views

Published on

Colliers Residential Q3 2011 Report on New Multi-Family Home Sales

Colliers Residential Q3 2011 Report on New Multi-Family Home Sales

Published in: Real Estate, Business

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
202
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. MarketShareTHIRD QUARTER 2011A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RESIDENTIALREAL ESTATE MARKET IN THE VANCOUVER LOWER MAINLANDOCTOBER 2011
  • 2. TABLE OFCONTENTS WELCOME TO MARKETSHARE 1 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 2 OVERALL – MARKET SUMMARY 3 MARKET SUMMARIES Vancouver – Downtown 4 Vancouver – West 5 Vancouver – East 6 Richmond/South Delta/Tsawwassen 7 Burnaby/New Westminster 8 North Shore: North Vancouver & West Vancouver 9 Tri-Cities: Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam & Port Moody 10 Ridge Meadows: Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows 11 Surrey Central/North Delta 12 South Surrey/White Rock 13 Cloverdale/Langley 14 WHAT TO WATCH 15 THIRD QUARTER 2011
  • 3. WELCOME TOMarketShareAs our team gathered to review and discuss our view Finally, as I mentioned in the last edition of MarketShare we have committed to a long-term approach in building sales distribution channelsof the markets this past quarter, we were again in China for both Vancouver and Toronto developers to satisfy what weinspired to see such buoyant activity in Toronto and believe will be sustained demand. We are increasing the size of our teamsVancouver while economies around the world are in this market, investing in technology, people development andexperiencing such volatility. communication infrastructure and building multiple partnerships with banks, immigration agencies as well as with other real estate agencies.The global macroeconomic view continues to lean towards the negative Our aim is to be the ‘go to’ organization for Canadian real estate in China.side. Depending on which economist you follow, the U.S. and Europe will This year our teams in Hong Kong, Singapore and China have already soldresolve their current issues soon and the world will ‘get back to business’ over USD $400 million of UK and Australian product. Together we areor, they won’t. How the U.S. and multiple countries in Europe can run their now expanding the market for Canadian product. We believe the bestfinances into the ground with debt is simply mind-boggling (where’s their approach to maximize success for Canadian developers in China is aproforma?). What is even more amazing is that when they try to address the long-term sustained approach as opposed to a “launch and leave”. Forproblems, political partisanship and self-interest seemingly get in the way of the right projects, we believe this is a long-term sales channel forconstructive and corrective action. Canadian real estate but it is not a quick fix problem project solver.While the global economy continues to experience many issues, the In summary, while the global economy has caused angst over the pastVancouver Lower Mainland real estate market continues to demonstrate month or so the Vancouver Lower Mainland real estate market continuesresilience and reinforces that ‘this is the place to be’ for real estate to perform steadily and assuming no major global economic meltdown wedevelopers. Low interest rates and an influx of new buyers into the market expect it to continue.will help to sustain this resilience. With current global economic challengesexpected to keep interest rates low into the foreseeable future, the I hope you enjoy this edition of MarketShare and as always we welcomeVancouver Lower Mainland is a great place to be a real estate buyer as well. your thoughts and comments.Looking ahead, we do however see challenges in the local marketsurrounding the need for affordable housing options. In talking to ourcolleagues in land sales the limited supply of quality new development sitesis resulting in escalating land prices. The higher the price for land, thegreater the price the buyer will be required to pay. At the same time thenumber of active and planned projects may push construction costs higher, Greg Ashleyagain resulting in higher sales prices for the buyer. This situation will PRESIDENT AND MANAGING PARTNER,necessitate innovation. We are beginning to see this innovation on the COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETINGdevelopment side - more efficient floor plans and reduced parking being twoof them. If one lives close to transit or downtown and does not require a carwhy does a developer have to build or provide the buyer a parking space?And if one does have a car, there are under-utilized parking structures thatwould be happy to offer long-term leases as an option to purchasing aresidence without parking. Our team is currently working on an innovativeproject in Chinatown that offers exactly this.THIRD QUARTER 2011 1
  • 4. RESEARCHMethodologyUrban Analytics (UAI) is Metro-Vancouver’s leading buildings/projects. In all instances active sales range quoted in tables is defined as “The active sales range in which 75 percent of sales of this productsource for analytical interpretation of relevant real type occurred”.estate market data, trends and strategicrecommendations. This quarter we were also interested to find out how the rejection of the HST and the ensuing uncertainty was impacting the new home market.Urban Analytics Inc. (UAI) was engaged by Colliers to provide aggregate We found that the impact has been modest on lower priced product.data on the multi-family residential real estate market in the Vancouver However, product priced between $525,000 and $1 million that completesLower Mainland. prior to February 2013 appears to be getting hit the hardest. That said, most end-user buyers (and many realtors) seeking product priced underThe methodology used to collect the data was as follows: the $525,000 threshold simply don’t understand how the tax applies. SoGENERAL PARAMETERS to avoid the confusion and encourage purchasing, many developers areVancouver Lower Mainland refers to the area from West Vancouver to now including the HST in the price. The provincial government mustAldergrove. The focus of this study is limited to the multi-family market. provide clarity on this issue swiftly.MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA – NEW HOME SALES Finally, with the continued “bubble” talk by economists based thousandsThe primary method used to collect information is a personal visit to each of miles from here, our analysts made a conscious effort to determine theproject being actively marketed. In addition to collecting current sales amount of standing inventory and assess whether these concerns areinformation, UAI representatives engage on-site sales staff to determine warranted. We do not think they are as a) inventory levels do not presentadditional relevant information such as incentive offerings, traffic trends and a concern at this time, b) any speculative buying that is typical of aactive buyer profiles. In all instances active sales range quoted in tables is growing bubble represents a microscopic fraction of the total buyingdefined as “The per square foot sales range in which 75 percent of sales of this activity taking place today and c) investors are taking a much longer termproduct type occurred”. approach with their purchases, unlike 2006 to 2008 when most investors had no intention – and in many cases no ability – to close on theirFor the purposes of the MarketShare publications, UAI contacts various purchases.municipal planning departments along with developers (and/or theirrepresentatives) of proposed new developments to determine the We hope you find this aggregate data combined with Colliers’anticipated timing of their approval and marketing launch. analysis, observations and opinions thought provoking.MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA – RESALEThe resale market provides an important barometer from which to assessdemand and determine pricing for new home projects. Accordingly, UAI Michael Ferreiraclosely monitors the resale market for multi-family homes in order to PRINCIPAL, URBAN ANALYTICS INC.identify trends that are relevant to the new home sector. However, thebreadth and depth of product for sale can create findings that are less thanhelpful to the new home developer. As a result, UAI recommends studyingonly product that is aged ten years or newer and valued at less than $1.2million. While it could be argued that limiting the analysis to newer product urban A N A LY T I C S I N C(i.e. five years or newer) would be more relevant to the new home sector,we believe this would limit the sample size and potentially skew the datatowards a specific type of product available in a small number of specific www.urbananalytics.caTHIRD QUARTER 2011 2
  • 5. OVERALL – SUMMARYVANCOUVER LOWER MAINLANDAs expected, Third Quarter sales were slower than the previous two quarters. Finally, given the slower season and increased competition in marketsHowever, even accounting for the usual seasonal dip in sales during this where the predominant buyer is an end user, such as Langley/Cloverdalequarter, a total of 2,315 units were sold which is up 40 percent from the same and Central Surrey/North Delta, a number of projects offered price-quarter in 2010. Year to date, 9,681 units have been sold, or 108 percent of reducing incentives while other of more centrally located projects worked2010’s total sales volume. Our prediction of 12,000+ units sold in 2011 to generate sales through increased realtor commissions.appears to be attainable. RESALE MARKET:Sales at new and high profile projects in False Creek, UBC, South Vancouver, This past quarter, 1,792 multi-family homes were sold on MLS. Sales wereRichmond, Coquitlam, and South Surrey contributed greatly as did continued up 48 percent over this same period last year. The increase was across alldemand for townhome product in all markets. Reasonably strong traffic and product types with high rise representing the lowest increase at 22 percent,sales activity during the first part of the quarter was reported. However, low rise sales increasing by 70 percent and townhome sales increasing bytraffic and sales slowed towards the end of August and through September. 76 percent. However, when compared to the torrid pace of the Second Quarter, sales were off 30 percent as a whole. Overall Third Quarter salesOverall unsold inventory levels in the Lower Mainland were reduced by were distributed across all product types as indicated in the following table.approximately 10 percent in the Third Quarter relative to Second Quarter ofthis year. Like many buyers, Mainland Chinese investors and end users were HIGH RISE LOW RISE TOWNHOME TOTALSsomewhat less active overall except for in key markets such as UBC. Total Third Quarter Sales 722 478 592 1,792Surprisingly, the first time or entry level buyer remained active takingadvantage of developer incentives and low interest rates. Total Active Listings 1,961 1,403 1,458 4,822NEW HOME MARKET: THE QUARTER AHEAD:In the Third Quarter 36 percent of sales occurred at high rise projects, which is The Fourth Quarter of 2010 proved to be the most active sales period fora 20 percent decrease compared to the previous quarter. Low rise sales that year. This year, we think that it is unlikely we will see the same numberrepresented 38 percent of sales, which is up 12 percent from the previous of sales due to the limited number of projects likely to launch in the Fourthquarter while townhome sales increased by 6 percent to 26 percent. Of the Quarter. We do however, still expect a positive quarter and continue to7,067 units of inventory available to purchase 2,130 are complete with three project annual sales of 12,000+ units.projects accounting for approximately 31 percent of the completed and unsoldinventory. Active projects decreased by approximately 2 percent. Overall ThirdQuarter performance across all product types is summarized in the followingtable. HIGH RISE LOW RISE TOWNHOME TOTALS Total Third Quarter Sales 825 893 597 2,315 Total Inventory 3,484 2,404 1,179 7,067 W. Scott Brown Total Number Of Projects 80 99 94 273 SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, WESTERN CANADA COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING Note To Reader - At the end of this report we have included a commentary on ‘What to Watch’Like any typical summer there were a limited number of higher profile new and invite you to read our thoughts on the future of the Lower Mainland market. In comingproject launches. These included: Concord Pacific/Millennium’s quiet and editions, we will provide additional insight to the market through our ‘What to Watch’ commentary, critiquing our earlier assumptions and sharing your views.successful release of Alexandra in the West End; China based ModernGreen’s UBC offering YU; Bastion’s re-launch of Opsal Steel, ForresterHomes’ Granville Mews; Townline’s Magnolia at the Gardens; and,Springbank’s Bloom.THIRD QUARTER 2011 3
  • 6. MARKET SUMMARYVANCOUVER – DOWNTOWN The ‘green light’ rating for Vancouver - Downtown is largely the result of the limited supply of product, the wildly successful response to the Alexandra project in the West End, and the continued steady absorptions at most existing pre-construction projects. A healthy supply of higher-end new and resale condominiums in this market has resulted in more moderate absorptions in this sector.NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES t ll S nS we* The positive response to the Concord/ nm a Bid De Me CANADA St PLACE Millennium offering Alexandra in the West ero W lvi lle St Ge ard Projected Q4 C St org End (75 of 85 units sold with little to no ola ia Q3 release Nic St St Du ns Co advertising at average sale values upwards Ha Bute mu W rd ov rw ir S Ha aSW oo t t Ne W sti t ater dS t Pe t olaS nS lso nd ng of $950 per square foot) illustrates the level Nic gh to Pe Co mo nS t er St sS t ou St Br s n dra xS of demand for well-located and optimally rvi ll S t Je St t te HIGH RISE Bu St St positioned product. low St rn by St St ha rds K Pa ur Ho St cifi Th we vil le Ric r nS t me Be cS St Ho ran ilto d Ho ac t d G t Blv* City-imposed moratorium on new LOW RISE rar am ie S hA ur H po B mb y St Ex ve GM Ca t at BC PLACE PLA development approvals in the West End will Be T St Da STADIUM TOWNHOME DS ur vie RAR mo St lvd further exacerbate the demand/supply BUR GE y cB BRID Se cifi Pa T ES imbalance for the foreseeable future in the VIL L AN E Maps for illustrative purposes GR RIDG Vancouver – Downtown market. only. Locations are approximate. B* There are now five completed projects with NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS a combined total of 76 units of standing Q3 ACTIVE Q3 Q3 ACTIVE SALES PRODUCT inventory. PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF) High Rise 13 155 483 $690 - 710 Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/aMLS RESALE - Q3 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY* Overall months of supply is 6.7. This is up MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE from 4.6 in the Second Quarter of 2011. PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales) High Rise 527 6.7 235 100 $707 38 $364,000 - 828,000* Overall sales were up 11 percent compared to this same quarter in 2010. Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a* Average sale price of $707 per square foot Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a - this is 5 percent higher than during the Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category Third Quarter of 2010. MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM High Rise $439,283 $692 $707,254 $721 Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/aTHIRD QUARTER 2011 4
  • 7. MARKET SUMMARYVANCOUVER – WEST The ‘green light’ rating applied to the Vancouver - West market remains. While sales at most of the actively marketed projects remain steady, the amount of product contemplated for the South East False Creek neighbourhood over the next two to three years will make this a highly competitive market for the foreseeable future. Vancouver - Downtown product remains in higher demand than product in South East False Creek. That said, sales success at Kits 360 and 6th + Fir illustrated the strong demand for product in the Kitsilano and Burrard Slopes areas. NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES Point G rey Rd Cornwall St* The positive response to the latest We 4th Ave W Gr sb University of e at Nor the r oo condominium offering at UBC’s Wesbrook British Columbia 10th Ave W BROADWAY W kM Projected Q4 all community, Modern Green’s YU, illustrates 12th Ave W Q3 release 12 16th Ave W the continued appeal of this neighbourhood Arbutus St Dunbar St Crown St Macdonald St Blenheim St SW M to the new immigrant Chinese buyers. King Edward Ave ar in Dr e* There are indications the Mainland Chinese 33rd Ave W 33rd Ave HIGH RISE Buyer has discovered The Village on False W Boulevard 41st Ave W Creek. Several units were sold to this buyer GRANVILLE STREET 41st Ave LOW RISE group during the Third Quarter. Main St Cambie St Fraser St 49th Ave W TOWNHOME Oak St* Local developer interest in assembled 57th Ave W 57th A properties along the Cambie Corridor has C.P.R Maps for illustrative purposes apparently cooled in light of some seemingly . SE Marine only. Locations are approximate. 70th Ave W Kent Ave N O irrational land sale values attained earlier this year. NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS Q3 ACTIVE Q3 Q3 ACTIVE SALES* Marine Gateway at the foot of Cambie Street is PRODUCT PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF) anticipated to launch in the First Quarter of High Rise 18 226 948 $680 - 750 2012 rather than in the Fourth Quarter of this Low Rise 3 6 14 $600 - 680 year. Townhome 3 3 50 $670 - 700 MLS RESALE - Q3 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY* Active listings for low and high rise product MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE increased by 43 percent compared to the PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales) Third Quarter of 2010. High Rise 172 8.5 61 43 $723 41 $309,900 - 940,000* At the same time, overall sales have Low Rise 125 7.1 53 38 $706 51 $427,000 - 796,600 increased by 81 percent compared to the Townhome 52 5.8 27 19 $663 26 $575,000 - 1.1M Third Quarter of 2010. Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category* The townhome sector showed the strongest sales increase compared to this same MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE quarter last year. This helps explain the low AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF ‘average days on market’ for townhome PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM product. High Rise $391,383 $643 $785,205 $758 Low Rise $432,950 $659 $649,891 $717 PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM Townhome $805,321 $665 $952,303 $671THIRD QUARTER 2011 5
  • 8. MARKET SUMMARYVANCOUVER – EAST Limited supply of new multi-family home product is the primary reason for the continued ‘green light’ rating for this market. The Main and Fraser Street corridors continue to attract new home buyers seeking more affordable pricing in quickly gentrifying areas. Developers contemplating new projects in Vancouver - East should be conscious of the fact buyers are typically seeking greater value here relative to more established Vancouver - West neighbourhoods. NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES morial Bridge* Polygon continues to receive a very positive St an nm McGill St response to its New Water development at De Eton St Da cific Projected Q4 Dundas St vie the River District. Pa Q3 release St HASTINGS STREET E St Willingdon Ave Parker St Gilmore Ave* The execution and marketing of many of the Venables St Holdom St Clark Dr low rise projects located along Kingsway has Gr 1st Ave e at Nor thern Wy been poor. HIGH RISE BROADWAY E 12th Ave W 12th Ave E* Panther Constructors Ltd. is set to launch its Grandview Hwy LOW RISE Nanaimo St KIN Canada Wy Renfrew St GS Rupert St first residential project, The Flats at 219 WA Wayburne Dr King Edward Ave Y Kincaid St Spro Georgia East, early in the Fourth Quarter. TOWNHOME Collingwood Moscrop St This innovative project is the first of its kind 33rd Ave W 33rd Ave E Deer Lake Pk for Chinatown. 41st Ave W Burke St Maps for illustrative purposes TREET 41st Ave E Gran only. Locations are approximate. ge S t* Two Vancouver - East areas that will see increased development activity in the coming NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS quarters are Chinatown and a large land Q3 ACTIVE Q3 Q3 ACTIVE SALES PRODUCT PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF) assembly adjacent to the Collingwood Village High Rise 2 27 120 $580 - 630 community near Kingsway and Boundary. Low Rise 16 130 185 $480 - 530 Townhome 4 6 39 $450 - 500 MLS RESALE - Q3 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY* Average sale values for high rise product MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE increased 8 percent over the Third Quarter of PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales) 2010. High Rise 107 7.8 41 39 $554 34 $328,888 - 557,500* Active listings increased by 9 percent Low Rise 117 8.8 40 38 $479 72 $288,000 - 448,000 compared to the previous quarter. Townhome 59 7.1 25 24 $484 35 $522,000 - 765,000* Overall sales were up 45 percent compared to Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category the Third Quarter of 2010 - much of which can be attributed to higher sales activity in the low MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE rise condominium sector. AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM High Rise $396,863 $569 $523,974 $551 Low Rise $329,487 $476 $398,114 $483 PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM Townhome $588,110 $492 $692,109 $484THIRD QUARTER 2011 6
  • 9. MARKET SUMMARYRICHMOND/SOUTH DELTA/TSAWWASSEN Richmond retains its ‘green light’ rating as a result of the continued strong absorptions of high and low rise condominium product. The lack of new product releases in the Third Quarter also resulted in very little movement in achievable sale values. Developers contemplating new product here should be aware of the considerable amount of condominium product proceeding through the planning process, and design and position their projects appropriately. NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES y W Vulcan er* The most notable project launch of Third Russ Bak Alderbridge Wy RICHMOND ANNACIS HIGHW Quarter was Townline’s The Gardens low rise River Rd Projected Q4 project on the former Fantasy Gardens Westminster Hwy Q3 release C.N.R. property. The positive response to the No 8 Rd No. 7 Rd Granville Ave project’s first phase will likely result in the THRUWAY Blundell Rd launch of Phase II during the Fourth Quarter. No. 1 Rd Gilbert Rd No. 3 Rd No. 4 Rd No. 5 Rd No. 6 Rd Railway Ave Garden City Rd HIGH RISE Francis Rd FRASER - DELTA* Slower absorptions in the high rise product T category can be attributed to the lack of LOW RISE Williams Rd I H product launches in the market area. Most TOWNHOME Steveston Hwy r Rd Rive pre sale offerings for this product type are No. 2 Rd Steveston Shell Rd nearing the end of their respective sales Moncton St Maps for illustrative purposes campaigns. Ge or only. Locations are approximate. ge M t a* Note that the Quintet sales office has now NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS closed to allow for the start of construction. Q3 ACTIVE Q3 Q3 ACTIVE SALES PRODUCT Nearly 650 of the approximately 700 units in PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF) this five-tower development are sold. High Rise 9 147 456 $540 - 590 Low Rise 7 119 204 $430 - 470 Townhome 14 31 126 $375 - 425 MLS RESALE - Q3 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY* Overall active listings are up 21 percent MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE compared to the Third Quarter of 2010. PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales)* Months of supply for high rise product is 11. High Rise 308 11 84 38 $521 66 $333,000 - 613,500 This is up from 9 in the Third Quarter of last Low Rise 144 9.2 47 21 $445 51 $339,900 - 529,900 year. Townhome 225 7.6 89 40 $410 49 $480,000 - 731,000* Demand for townhome product remains Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change strong. * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM High Rise $352,639 $520 $484,204 $520 Low Rise $337,686 $500 $427,951 $442 PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM Townhome $484,414 $395 $598,749 $410THIRD QUARTER 2011 7
  • 10. MARKET SUMMARYBURNABY/NEW WESTMINSTER A ‘green light’ rating has been applied to the Burnaby/New Westminster area due to the continued strong absorptions in the Metrotown area of Burnaby, which has also led to increased buyer activity in areas other Burnaby neighbourhoods such as North Burnaby, Brentwood and Edmonds. The new home market in New Westminster remains very price sensitive; only those projects that are appropriately positioned relative to comparable product in Burnaby and other competing market areas achieved moderately strong absorptions NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES HASTINGS STREET E* With Intracorp’s Metroplace development now Simon Fraser Willingdon Ave Parker St Curtis St Gilmore Ave Venables St University St. Johns Holdom St Sperling St substantially sold out, the market is awaiting Gerald Ave Projected Q4 Ga 1st Ave ar gl the launch the next series of towers in di Rd Wy Q3 release rke Cla BROADWAY E Como Lake Ave Metrotown by the likes of Concord, Intracorp LOU G HEE DH Gatensbury Rd Grandview Hwy IGH WAY Mountain St and Anthem/Beedie. Canada Wy Nanaimo St Renfrew St Rupert St Wayburne Dr Kincaid St Sprott St Winston St* While absorptions of concrete condominium CO e Blu RA T Moscrop St HIGH RISE Deer Lake Pkwy NS CA NA product remains steady in the Brentwood DA HIG Burke St BURNABY HWA Y 1 North Rd Gran area, achievable sale values still lag behind LOW RISE ge S t Oakland St United B W Tyne St alk those of comparable product in Metrotown 49th Ave E Boundary Rd er 6t Av TOWNHOME h e Royal Oak Ave Av e Ca KIN St Imperial St G t th Nelson Ave SW na sS by approximately $30 - $40 per square foot. St AY 10 da nd e Kerr St mo Av ia ER Wy mb Ed 8th ve RIV Rumble St hA Colu 6t R St E* The most notable project launches NEW AS 116th A ot Gilley Ave Marine Dr FR Elli e Maps for illustrative purposes Av WESTMINSTER Pa ns ee tu ardson W l lo Qu anticipated for the Fourth Quarter include only. Locations are approximate. Kent A ve S Marine Wy St ew y Bridge Liberty’s Highland House at UniverCity (SFU), NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS TriDecca’s 258 tower in New Westminster, Q3 ACTIVE Q3 Q3 ACTIVE SALES PRODUCT and the final release of The Grove low rise PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF) buildings at Onni’s Victoria Park. High Rise 15 148 358 $465 -600 Low Rise 13 80 222 $385 - 475 Townhome 6 23 99 $350 -450 MLS RESALE - Q3 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age) ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORYMARKET HIGHLIGHTS: MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE* Active listings for high rise product have were PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales) 9 percent lower than in the Third Quarter of High Rise 408 5.7 216 56 $479 47 $317,500 - 555,000 2010. Low Rise 148 5 89 23 $423 63 $240,339 - 470,000* Compared to the Third Quarter of 2010, high Townhome 152 5.8 78 20 $394 42 $364,900 - 619,900 rise condo sales increased by 67 percent. Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change* Sale prices for low rise product increased by * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category 6 percent over the Third Quarter of 2010. MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM High Rise $320,589 $482 $455,338 $475 Low Rise $281,040 $423 $383,004 $422 PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM Townhome $416,679 $421 $538,803 $382THIRD QUARTER 2011 8
  • 11. MARKET SUMMARYNORTH SHORE: North Vancouver & West Vancouver The lower sales activity on the North Shore during the Third Quarter was largely the result of a drop in the number of actively marketing projects. The combination of lower sales activity and a significant increase in the amount of new product anticipated to relaunch or commence marketing in the Fourth Quarter has resulted in the North Shore retaining its ‘yellow light’ status. NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES* Both Polygon’s Anderson Walk and Anthem’s Local on Lonsdale sales centres were closed for Projected Q4 Rd much of the Third Quarter, while Qualex- no Q3 release r e Av emar R d ila Bra Cap k Ed roo Landmark’s District Crossing was substantially ge Lynn Delb m on tB Valley sold out. lvd d Chesterfield Ave HW 29th St E Rd R St Georges Ave ey ur Mountain Hwy AY Lonsdale Ave ll Deep rE mo Va eD 1 nn y Ly Hy Mt Se sid* The most notable project launches scheduled Cove Fell Ave an er Rd nis R iv HIGH RISE on ne Dr rs Dr for the Fourth Quarter are Wegroup’s The La Berkley Rd 15th St Rd Grand Blvd E Deep Cove Rd 13th St W Lillooet Prescott at 13th Street and Lonsdale, and 15 Brooksbank Ave LOW RISE Welch St 3rd St W Ke Mt Seymour Pkwy ith Es Mountai Harbourside Dr an Rd E pl ad West by Grosvenor/Citimark on 15th Street Harbourside Pl eW 3rd St TOWNHOME E ld Dollarton Rd Dollarton Hwy n Hwy E Main St nade O Espla near Lonsdale. Riverside Dr Iro n W rkers Memorial Br o Burrard Inlet* Onni is also slated to re-launch the Evelyn W Maps for illustrative purposes development in West Vancouver. only. Locations are approximate.* Absorptions for low rise product are NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS anticipated to increase after Polygon launches Q3 ACTIVE Q3 Q3 ACTIVE SALES PRODUCT PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF) its second phase of Anderson Walk in the High Rise 8 15 309 $575 - 625 Fourth Quarter. Low Rise 10 39 257 $500 - 540* There is a limited supply of townhome product Townhome 3 6 31 n/a on the market. MLS RESALE - Q3 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY* Higher months of supply of all product types MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE are making market conditions more PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales) favourable for buyers. High Rise 106 11.8 27 38 $619 51 $336,500 -702,000* Active listings of low rise product is 65 Low Rise 112 12.4 27 38 $504 53 $318,000 - 584,000 percent higher than the Third Quarter of Townhome 56 9.3 18 25 $414 60 $430,000 - 998,000 2010. Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category* Overall sales activity in the Third Quarter was lower than the previous quarter. MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM High Rise $360,661 $598 $578,889 $626 Low Rise $345,864 $493 $526,980 $510 PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM Townhome $651,750 $441 $815,000 $386THIRD QUARTER 2011 9
  • 12. MARKET SUMMARYTRI-CITIES: Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam & Port Moody The Tri-Cities has been downgraded to a ‘yellow light’ rating due to the rising months of supply in the high rise sector. However, there is a strong likelihood of this area regaining a ‘green light’ rating due to the recent approval of Metro Vancouver Mayors to raise the capital required to fund the construction and operation of the Evergreen rapid transit line through a new gas tax and higher property taxes. NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES Rd Westwood* Lower absorptions of high rise product are April Plateau due in part to the uncertainty over whether Dr Panorama Projected Q4 Ioc Pinetree Wy Her funding for the Evergreen Line would be oR it Q3 release d age M Johnson St Coast Meridian Rd C.P .R. approved. La n ou ds d n ta Victoria Dr St ow in Blv sy ne ghnes* While Cressey’s M2 high rise development d Dr Cedar Dr St. Johns St Shau continued to achieve strong absorptions, HIGH RISE sales activity at most other actively selling Prairie Ave Rd ke high rise projects remained muted. LOW RISE r Cla Como Lake Ave Gatensbury Rd* Low rise condominium projects by Mosaic in TOWNHOME Burquitlam Mountain St Kin Mariner Wy Linton St gs 7 wa yA LO Burquitlam and a high rise project by ve U G Austin Ave Broadway St Polygon at its Windsor Gate community e Blu Maps for illustrative purposes iver Rd St achieved strong Third Quarter absorptions. only. Locations are approximate. Maillardville ssy Ave* Demand for well-designed and appropriately NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS positioned townhome product in the Burke Q3 ACTIVE Q3 Q3 ACTIVE SALES PRODUCT PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF) Mountain remains steady. High Rise 9 46 440 $85 - 440 Low Rise 11 60 214 $320 - 390 Townhome 7 59 145 $285 - 335 MLS RESALE - Q3 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY* There continues to be a generous supply of MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE high rise condominium product; 16.5 months. PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales) High Rise 220 16.5 40 21 $403 48 $275,000 - 468,500* Low rise sales are were 54 percent higher than in this same quarter last year. Low Rise 170 6.4 80 41 $343 54 $252,800 - 370,000* Townhome sales nearly tripled over the Townhome 169 6.9 74 38 $304 36 $379,850 - 579,900 Third Quarter 2010. Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category* Average days on the market for townhome product is very low at an average of 36 days. MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM High Rise $271,617 $419 $420,441 $401 Low Rise $250,488 $367 $321,107 $340 PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM Townhome $402,644 $328 $464,013 $298THIRD QUARTER 2011 10
  • 13. MARKET SUMMARYRIDGE MEADOWS: Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows The limited sales activity in Ridge Meadows is largely due to the limited number of projects actively marketing and can account for the ‘yellow light’ status. While there is likely some justification for the introduction of new low rise condominium and townhome product in this market, developers of this product should be aware of the price sensitivity among multi-family product buyers here. Only well-designed and appropriately positioned projects in appealing locations are likely to achieve desired absorption levels. NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q3 NEW RELEASESi AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES ng sw* Sales activity Portrait Homes’ Brighton ay LO Harris Rd Av UGH e Neaves Rd EE DH Broadway St townhome project remains steady as IGH WA Projected Q4 Y purchasers are responding well to entry level Q3 release Dewdney Trunk Rd 7 townhomes priced below $300,000. 128th Ave* The most anticipated Fourth Quarter launch is Woolridge Rd 203rd St Quadra’s Cedar Downs low rise condominium 216th St hS Laity St HIGH RISE project in Pitt Meadows. LAS D PITT MEADOWS Hammond Rd LOW RISE AIRPORT* There is no apparent demand for high rise 207th St d product in Ridge Meadows. TOWNHOME er R Fra R iv ser Pe Wy rim eteC. r N.R Rd . 108th Ave Ears Bridge Maps for illustrative purposes BARNSTON ISLAND only. Locations are approximate. 104th Ave NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS Q3 ACTIVE Q3 Q3 ACTIVE SALES PRODUCT PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF) High Rise 1 0 84 $275 - 325 Low Rise 3 21 17 $250 - 300 Townhome 5 32 54 $200 - 250 MLS RESALE - Q3 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY* High rise condominium resale listings at MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE Solaris are now appearing on MLS. PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales) High Rise 6 4.5 4 9 $291 118 $259,900 - 309,900* There is a generous supply of low rise condominium and townhome listings: 14.8 Low Rise 94 14.8 19 41 $248 64 $200,000 - 284,305 and 12 months respectively. Townhome 92 12 23 50 $212 64 $306,542 - 448,800* Less than 50 sales of newer resale multi- Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category family product sold on MLS in this quarter. MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM High Rise n/a n/a $282,400 $291 Low Rise $193,333 $256 $247,595 $247 PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM Townhome $340,000 $238 $378,645 $219THIRD QUARTER 2011 11
  • 14. MARKET SUMMARYSURREY CENTRAL/NORTH DELTA The fact that the amount of new contemplated low and high rise inventory could potentially outpace current absorption levels is the primary reason for the ‘yellow light’ rating applied to this market – particularly in the Surrey Central neighbourhood. Developers considering the launch of low or high rise product in this neighbourhood should be aware of the price-sensitivity of buyers. High rise product should be priced at $400 or less per square foot in order to achieve any significant absorption. NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES eteC.N o Gr r R.R d. 108th Ave* Most of the activity for high rise 108th Ave d Guildford tR A 91 ot Sc 104th Ave 104th Ave condominiums is occurring at Concord Projected Q4 South 100th Ave 100th Ave Pacific’s Park Place where substantial Westminster FR Q3 release 148th St 156th St 160th St AS ER Qu HIG ee ns ANNACIS 96th Ave HW price-reducing incentives are being offered b ISLAND AY 96th Ave orou 99A gh 92nd Ave 92nd Ave Br Ave 132nd St to both purchasers and realtors. 120th St 128th St i dg KING GEORGE HIGHWAY n e Alex Derwen 88th Ave 88th Ave y t W Frase PACIFIC HIGHWAY* Townhome activity in the South Newton and r Brid y lW 84th Ave 84th Ave e HIGH RISE ge rd No North Delta neighbourhoods of this market ANNAC Ha 80th Ave 80th Ave IS HI remains steady. However, recent new LOW RISE 168th St 176th St hS 76th Ave 76th Ave GHW Scott Rd 112th St 144th St 140th St 152nd St AY townhome launches in South Newton have 72nd Ave Newton Rd 72nd Ave TOWNHOME Newton made this a much more competitive market 91 64th Ave 68th Ave Sullivan area, which has led to lower buyer urgency Kitson Pkwy 64th Ave SO Maps for illustrative purposes UT Surrey Clover levels. B.N HE .R. RN 48th St only. Locations are approximate. RA Centre th St ILW 58th Ave AY* Buyer response to Polygon’s Sunstone NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS community in North Delta remains positive Q3 ACTIVE Q3 Q3 ACTIVE SALES PRODUCT as evidenced by the absorptions being PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF) achieved by Eclipse – its most recent High Rise 3 54 292 $350 - 400 townhome offering. Low Rise 13 97 404 $275 - 325 Townhome 21 154 262 $210 - 260 MLS RESALE - Q3 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY* Average resale price of $348 per square foot MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE for high rise condominium product in Central PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales) Surrey helps explain reluctance of High Rise 72 27 8 5 $348 49 $201,000 - 282,000 developers to introduce new product here. Low Rise 180 11 49 29 $282 68 $193,204 - 284,900* Townhome sales more than doubled in Townhome 240 6.4 113 66 $222 50 $309,978 - 435,000 comparison to the Third Quarter of 2010. Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category* The ‘average days on market’ for all product MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE types are lower than in the Third Quarter of AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF 2010. PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM High Rise $213,900 $340 $276,667 $359 Low Rise $193,614 $301 $260,154 $279 PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM Townhome $294,071 $248 $359,224 $224THIRD QUARTER 2011 12
  • 15. MARKET SUMMARYSOUTH SURREY/WHITE ROCK Higher absorptions of low rise product and continued strong demand for entry level and move-up townhomes helped the South Surrey/White Rock market retain its ‘green light’ rating. The stronger absorption of low rise product is helping to reduce the amount of standing inventory of this product type. New immigrant and established Chinese buyers from Richmond continue to participate in the townhome market. NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES 40th Ave 40th Ave* Edgewater continues to dominate sales in the Mud Bay low rise condominium sector. Response to the Projected Q4 release of the final two phases of this project Q3 release 32nd Ave Rd 32nd Ave t en has been positive in spite of the approximately 160th St 168th St c Cres St iew 28th Ave 28th Ave $400 per square foot sale values being yv 99 Ba sought. 24th Ave 24th Ave Sunnyside 152nd St 140th St 124th St 128th St HIGH RISE* Low rise condominium developers hoping to 20th Ave 20th Ave 20th Ave attain similar sale values should expect very LOW RISE North Bluff Rd 16th Ave slow absorptions unless the product offers a Marine Dr TOWNHOME Buena Vista Ave unique selling feature such as views or green Semiahmoo 8th Ave belt adjacency. Campbell Riv B. 172nd St 176th St N. Maps for illustrative purposes R.* The most significant anticipated project launch only. Locations are approximate. in the foreseeable future is Polygon’s Seaside NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS Village low rise condominium project. Q3 ACTIVE Q3 Q3 ACTIVE SALES PRODUCT PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF)* There continues to be limited demand for high High Rise 2 7 60 $550 - 600 rise product in South Surrey/White Rock. Low Rise 8 98 338 $325 - 375 Townhome 13 116 125 $250 - 300 MLS RESALE - Q3 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY* The majority of the active high rise listings MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE are units at Bosa’s Miramar Village project. PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales) High Rise 35 17.5 6 9 $497 99 $469,000 - 675,000* The overwhelming majority of low rise condominium listings are located in White Low Rise 106 17.7 18 26 $354 63 $225,000 - 437,000 Rock where there is more limited demand Townhome 116 7.9 44 65 $275 52 $332,604 - 689,300 than in South Surrey. Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category* Townhome sales are down 44 percent compared to the Second Quarter and can be MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE attributed to new product on that market that AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF is favourably priced. PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM High Rise n/a n/a $630,400 $500 Low Rise $232,600 $312 $381,646 $373 PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM Townhome $382,867 $287 $470,151 $287THIRD QUARTER 2011 13
  • 16. MARKET SUMMARYCLOVERDALE/LANGLEY A ‘yellow light’ rating continues to be applied to Cloverdale/Langley as a result of the highly competitive nature of this market area. The seemingly ever-increasing number of low rise and townhome projects has given prospective purchasers much to consider, which has lengthened the buying cycle. The level of competition combined with the HST still being applied to new home product has led to many developers offering lucrative price-reducing incentives valued at up to $12,000 to generate sales. NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q3 2011MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q3 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q4 NEW RELEASES Topham R r 192* Quadra/HJ’s Yorkson Creek development 92nd Ave continues to dominate absorptions in this Projected Q4 Rd 88th Ave market area. New home buyers continue to PACIFIC HIGHWAY 216th St er ov Q3 release Gl respond to the value-oriented offering of 1 Tele Rd grap h ie Tr both the low rise condominiums and rv Ha townhomes at this development. 200th St 192nd St 208th St 216th St 184th St 176th St* It is interesting to note that absorptions have HIGH RISE been higher in the Yorkson area of Langley 72nd Ave 72nd Ave LOW RISE 10 than in the East Clayton neighbourhood of HWY 10 BYPASS Cloverdale. TOWNHOME 17 Rd er Glov 64th Ave* In spite of the considerable amount of unsold 60th Ave inventory in the townhome sector, there are Maps for illustrative purposes Log an Ave just 87 units of standing townhome only. Locations are approximate. St 56th Ave inventory. NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS* Also noteworthy is the emergence of the PRODUCT Q3 ACTIVE Q3 Q3 ACTIVE SALES PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF) Korean buyer in the Yorkson area. High Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a Low Rise 15 243 549 $280 - 330 Townhome 18 167 248 $225 - 275 MLS RESALE - Q3 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY* Overall newer resale multi-family listings MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE increased by 28 percent compared to the PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales) Third Quarter of 2010. High Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a* Overall newer resale multi-family sales Low Rise 207 11.1 56 36 $298 74 $198,350 - 353,000 increased by 56 percent compared to the Townhome 297 8.8 101 64 $216 50 $293,000 - 414,000 Third Quarter of 2010. Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change* Townhome sales represent two thirds of the newer multi-family re-sale transactions in this MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE marketplace. AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM High Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a Low Rise $207,506 $29,34 $289,932 $300 PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM Townhome $302,828 $240 $354,470 $213THIRD QUARTER 2011 14
  • 17. RESIDENTIAL MARKET SUMMARYWHAT TO WATCHWhile we don’t see a “bubble” or Vancouver real estate LOOKING AHEAD Our quarterly cycle of developer polling suggests that the sentimentcrash on the horizon it is likely that some new project moving into the final quarter of 2011 is mixed. The word that bestlaunches and approvals will be delayed due to the describes this sentiment is “angst”. Developers admit this year’s volumeforthcoming municipal elections and concerns over is remarkable but are troubled by the global economic issues and theconsumer confidence. That said, we remain grateful to uncertainty with respect to the HST. Either way, developers expect abe working in the Vancouver market given the volatility healthy market next year but not necessarily one as strong as the market this year.of other markets worldwide.LAST QUARTER Looking ahead to the Fourth Quarter of 2011 and the First Quarter ofLast quarter we said that Third Quarter sales would be in line with Third 2012 and beyond we expect:Quarter performance in 2010. We certainly can’t be accused of being too * The Total Annual Sales Volume for 2011 to exceed 12,000 units.bullish as sales were up 40 percent over the same quarter last year. Did * Fourth Quarter performance will be less than Second Quarter of 2011.anyone see that coming? That said, they were less than half what they werein the Second Quarter of this year. * A number of developers will forge ahead with planned Fourth Quarter launches while others may defer to the First and Second Quarter ofWe commented that developer efforts to differentiate product from the 2012.architectural and design perspectives would be handsomely rewarded by * The market will reward innovative, well marketed projects but will notinvestors, end users and eventually renters. One need look no further than cover executional “sins” of any material kind.Onni’s sale success at Central as proof of that statement. Of course, we think * Product priced between $525,000 and $1 million that completes priorVancouver has unrealized architectural potential and we look forward to to February 2013 will continue to be hit hardest by the uncertainty overfuture efforts to tap into it. On the other hand, we didn’t expect a number of the HST.controversial projects to gain the necessary approvals as quickly as they did. * Incentive offerings will be a must for projects in competitive marketWe anticipated continued Asian immigration to drive sales and it has areas if developers are to accelerate absorptions. A good time to buy!particularly in the main stay areas UBC and Vancouver - West, Richmondand Metrotown. And, according to our data this interest is spreading to TheVillage on False Creek and to less central areas provided that they are ontransit and near good schools.Finally, we expected developers in Vancouver to look to Victoria and Calgaryas land prices escalate and development opportunities become rarer inVancouver. Bosa Properties enjoyed summer sales at its Promontory projectin Victoria. Embassy Developments continues to prepare for the launch of asignature project Evolution at East Village, an emerging downtown Calgaryneighbourhood. On the other hand, Concert Properties had planned tolaunch its downtown Victoria project Era but elected to delay its publicrelease until the cloud of uncertainty surrounding the rejection of the HSTpasses.THIRD QUARTER 2011 15
  • 18. RESIDENTIAL MARKET SUMMARYWHAT TO WATCHFinally, there are a number of the questions we at Colliers are askingourselves as we enter the Fourth Quarter of 2011 and the First Quarter of2012:WILL THE GOVERNMENT PROVIDE CLEAR TRANSITION RULESREGARDING HST OR PROVIDE CLEAR INFORMATION ON WHAT’SNEXT?We anxiously look forward to clarity in this area from our government.WHAT IMPACT WILL THE ONGOING GLOBAL ECONOMY AND STOCKMARKETS HAVE ON CONSUMER PSYCHOLOGY AND DEVELOPERMIND SET?People can only take so much posturing, “bubble talk” and bad news beforethey stop acting and wait and see. Many pundits believe our economy andmarkets are more resilient and will continue to be. Others are starting topreach doom and gloom to anyone who will listen. Who is right?WHAT IMPACT WILL THE OUTCOME OF THE MUNICIPALELECTIONS IN NOVEMBER HAVE ON THE DEVELOPMENTCOMMUNITY AND THE MARKET FOR HOUSING?The temperature outside may be cooling off but the campaigns for control ofcivic leadership positions are just heating up. Will there be intelligentdialogue and debate or polarity? Which municipalities are most likely to seechange? Which are most likely to see the status quo until next time round?WHAT DO YOU THINK?As always, we value your input. If you have views you’d like to share and/orquestions that you would like to see answered in future editions pleasecontact us directly at scott.brown@colliers.com.W. Scott BrownSENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, WESTERN CANADACOLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETINGTHIRD QUARTER 2011 16
  • 19. COLLIERS INTERNATIONALRESIDENTIAL MARKETINGWESTERN CANADAW. Scott Brown, Senior Vice PresidentSuite 1900, 200 Granville StreetVancouver, British ColumbiaCanada V6C 2R6MAIN +1 604 681 4111DIRECT +1 604 661 0877EMAIL scott.brown@colliers.comEASTERN CANADAChristine Brennan, Vice PresidentOne Queen Street East, Suite 2200Toronto, OntarioCanada M5C 2Z2MAIN +1 416 777 2200DIRECT +1 416 643 3462EMAIL christine.brennan@colliers.comwww.colliers.com/residentialThis document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Colliers International makes no guarantees,representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracyand reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludesunequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages urban A N A LY T I C S I N Carising there from. This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers International and /or its licensor(s). © 2011. All rights reservedVancouver Lower Mainland: West Vancouver to Aldergrove. Excludes Abbotsford, Chilliwack, and Mission. Resale Data: MLS sold for attachedproduct (high rise, low rise, and townhomes) built within the last ten years for units valued less that $1.2 million. Single family sales are excludedfrom the report. www.urbananalytics.ca