Ssai Webinar   Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change   Harch   Sep 7 2012 V1
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Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1

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Statistical Society of Australia Webinar - Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change - Bronwyn Harch Sep 7, 201

Statistical Society of Australia Webinar - Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change - Bronwyn Harch Sep 7, 201

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Ssai Webinar   Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change   Harch   Sep 7 2012 V1 Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1 Presentation Transcript

  • Global Food Security: Achieving foodsecurity in the face of climate changeThe Role of Statisticians and Statistical ScienceDr Bronwyn Harch| Deputy Director7th September, 2012SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE FLAGSHIP
  • Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social & economicaccess to sufficient, safe & nutritious food to meet their dietary needs & foodpreferences for an active & healthy life. United Nations Food & Agriculture Organisation Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 2
  • Key Challenges Growing from 7 billion people today to 9 billion by 20501.5 billion overweight 1 in 6 undernourished1.3 billion tonnes 200+ million more of food wasted hungry after 2007/8 each year price spikes 1.5 billion depend 1.4 billion live on on degrading land <USD$1.25 / day 12 million ha of additional 7.5 billion USD lost toagricultural land degraded/year extreme weather in 2010 Beddington et al. 2011 available at www.ccafs.cgiar.org/commission Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 3
  • Key Elements to Food InsecurityPhoto: International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)  Converging threats from climate change, population growth & unsustainable resource use  Resource competition, land degradation & greenhouse gas emissions  Food price volatility & conflicts associated with food shortagesFood Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 4
  • Commission on Sustainable Agriculture& Climate Change • Established by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) • Program on Climate Change, Agriculture & Food Security (CCAFS) with support from the Global Donor Platform for Rural Development (GDPRD) • 13 eminent natural and social scientists from around the world • Evidence-based policy recommendations: A ‘road map’ for policy makers Released in November 2011 • Full Report released 28th March 2012 http://ccafs.cgiar.org/commission/Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 5
  • Major Findings  Business as usual will not bringPhoto: International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) food security & environmental sustainability  Need to simultaneously address global agriculture within the context of the food system & climate change  The interconnected nature of these challenges demands an integrated management approach  The world’s poor are less resilientFood Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 6
  • Seven Recommendations1. Integrate food security & sustainable agriculture into global & national policies2. Significantly raise the level of global investment in sustainable agriculture & food systems in the next decade3. Target populations & sectors most vulnerable to climate change & food insecurity4. Reshape food access & consumption patterns to ensure basic nutritional needs are met & foster sustainable eating habits worldwide5. Reduce loss & waste in food systems – particularly from infrastructure, farming practices, processing, distribution & household habits6. Sustainably intensify agricultural production while reducing greenhouse gas emissions & other negative environmental impacts7. Create comprehensive, shared, integrated information systems that encompass human & ecological dimensionsFood Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 7
  • Key insights related toAustralia’s interest in foodsecurityFood Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 8
  • Australia’s interests in food security• Australia has a high level of food security o export ~60% of food production o produce 1% of world’s food; 3% of traded food• Share same health/diet issues with higher income countries• Land and water are increasingly contested o for food, fibre, fuel and carbon sinks• Droughts and floods constrain agricultural outputs• Strong population growth is fuelling community debate on “sustainability”• National policy related developments and dialogue• International engagement around food security DAFF 2012. FOODmap. An analysis of the Australian food supply chain Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 9
  • Action in needed on three fronts 1) reducing demand 2) sustaining existing productivity 3) filling the production gapFood Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 10
  • Food Demand Scenarios 1960 to 2050 45 Plus 20 % wastage loss in value chain 40 Global Food Demand (Petacal/day) Plus 6 or 12 % diversion to biofuels 35 9B people + consumption increase in developing 30 countries 25 9B people 8B people , no 20 consumption increae 15 10 5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year
  • A ‘Mega-wedge’ of Food Demand 45 40 Filling the Global Food Demand (Petacal/day) Production 35 Demand 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 YearFood Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 12
  • Other “Mega-wedges” of Food Demand ? 45 Global Food Demand (Petacal/day) 40 Filling the 35 Production Demand 30 25 Avoiding 20 losses of productive 15 capacity 10 5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 YearFood Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 13
  • Other “Mega-wedges” of Food Demand ? 45 Reducing 40 Global Food Demand (Petacal/day) the Demand 35 Filling the 30 Production Demand 25 20 Avoiding losses of 15 productive capacity 10 5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 YearFood Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 14
  • Pathways to Address the Food Security Challenge ? Reducing the demand trajectory 45 • Reduce waste along the food value 40 Global Food Demand (Petacal/day) 35 chain 30 25 • Reducing over-consumption in 20 human diets 15 10 5 • Rebalancing livestock component of 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 future diets Year • Develop “smart biofuel” policies & technologiesFood Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 15
  • Pathways to Address the Food Security Challenge? Avoiding losses of productive capacity • Maintaining pest & disease resistance 45 & biosecurity 40 Global Food Demand (Petacal/day) 35 • Avoiding further soil & water 30 25 degradation 20 15 • Climate change mitigation without 10 loss of food security 5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 • Adapting to unavoidable climate change YearFood Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 16
  • Pathways to Address the Food Security Challenge? Filling the production shortfall • Net expansion of the land footprint • Net expansion of irrigation footprint 45 40 Global Food Demand (Petacal/day) • Expanding aquaculture based 35 30 production 25 20 • Increasing production intensity 15 10 • Closing yield gaps 5 0 (including raising eco-efficiency) 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year • Raising yield ceilings through new technologiesFood Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 17
  • Pathways ahead for the Govt and Industry?Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 19
  • Translation... Carbon storage Greenhouse gas abatement Livelihood Profitability Agri-environmental Productivity stewardship
  • Greenhouse gas Agri-environmental abatement Productivity stewardship Carbon storage Livelihood Profitability
  • Pathways ahead for the Govt and Industry? Contribution of statisticians & statistical science? ◦ innovation ◦ partnerships ◦ knowledge servicesFood Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 22
  • What is Agri-Environmental Informatics? Modelling of Key Processes Enhancing * environmental Design, accounting NextIntegration & Generation * landscape stewardship Synthesis of DataObservational * environmental services Acquisition Data * community well-being Technologies * competitive edge Enabling Risk Informed Decision Making
  • Reflections: innovation, partnershipsknowledge services Deep engagement with stakeholders  adoption and impact Strong disciplinary science across a range of disciplines Transdisciplinary integrators and modellers  space, time  competing objectives High level visualisation and communication technologies  space, time  risk profiles A mosaic of native ecosystems, plantations, and agriculture on  uncertainty Kangaroo Island, SA.
  • Thank youSustainable Agriculture FlagshipDr Bronwyn HarchDeputy Directort +61 7 3833 5631e bronwyn.harch@csiro.auw www.csiro.au/SAF