• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
Demantra Overview
 

Demantra Overview

on

  • 11,918 views

Demantra Overview

Demantra Overview

Statistics

Views

Total Views
11,918
Views on SlideShare
11,911
Embed Views
7

Actions

Likes
10
Downloads
0
Comments
0

3 Embeds 7

http://rodcopeland.com 3
http://www.rodcopeland.com 2
http://www.docshut.com 2

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    Demantra Overview Demantra Overview Presentation Transcript

    • Oracle DemantraOverview & Introduction The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Agenda • After completing this module, you should be able to: – Understand Demantra in the context of APS – Describe key capabilities of Oracle Demantra – Understand what business processes are supported within Demantra – Understand Oracle Demantra Concepts and Terms Copyright © Inspirage LLC, 2008. Private and confidential. All rights reserved. The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Understanding the Oracle APS & Demantra SolutionCopyright © Inspirage LLC, 2008. Private and confidential. All rights reserved Page 3 The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Oracle Advanced Planning Solution Trading PartnersBest in class Supply Chain Demand driven Operational Multi-Enterprise Real-TimeBusiness Risk Management adaptive planning Excellence Collaboration S&OPProcesses Role-based Portals Network Design Demand SensingIntegrated And Shaping PostponementPlanning Optimization Holistic PreconfiguredFunctions Supply Worksheets and Promise, Workbenches Planning Distribute, and Replenish Execute to plan Real-Time Demand Predictive Advanced Strategic Global Products Inventory Sales & Management Trade Supply Chain Production Collaborative Network Order Optimization Operations & Advanced Planning & Planning Scheduling Planning Optimization Promising Planning Forecasting OptimizationPlatform Connectors Embedded WFL Common planning Analytics data model LegacyE Future * E1 * EBS … * RP The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Oracle Demantra Applications Demand Advanced Forecasting Trade Promotion Management and Demand Modeling OptimizationReal-time Sales and Deduction and Predictive TradeOperations Planning Settlement Management Planning The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Demantra Integration – The Big Picture Demantra Demand Management Trade Promotion Management Real-Time Sales and Operations Planning Demand Management Predictive Trade PlanningAdvanced Planning Command Center Deduction and Advanced Forecasting Promotion Optimization Settlement Management Supply Chain Planning Oracle EBS JDE E1 Siebel CRM Strategic Network Optimization Supply Chain Supply Chain Trade Inventory Optimization Management Management Management and Financials and Financials Execution Adv. Supply Chain Planning Global Order Promising Collaborative Planning Production Scheduling The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • What is demand planning? Planning for future demand scenarios • Estimate future demand based on market conditions • Collaborative planning process involving internal and external participants A crucial function for improving operational plans • Optimal resource allocation • Reduced inventory levels • Improved customer satisfaction Compare and consolidate disparate forecasts • Sales, Marketing, Manufacturing • In units or amount Improve forecast accuracy • Better statistical forecasts Manage by exception • Multi-dimensional OLAP for analysis (product, channel, geography, …) • User-defined exceptions • Proactive notifications Copyright © Inspirage LLC, 2007. Private and confidential. All rights reserved. The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • High inventory Shorter product costs lifecycles Long Frequent new manufacturing product lead times introductions Stock outs & non- Proper Demand Management and availability Customer Switching Sales and Operations Planning helps Excessive inventory companies solve these challenges Promotion’s negative and increase profitable revenue ROI growth. Loss of revenue NPI failurePromotions/Deals Extremefluctuate demand product segmentation Poor collaboration between Product variations to sales, marketing, demand meet different mgmt., operations, and with geographical and legal customers requirements The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Typical ChallengesShorter Product Lifecycles• Frequent new product introductions putting increased burden on operations• Shorter life span of the product making it difficult to forecastExtreme Product Segmentation• Extreme segmentation of the product by color and aesthetic attributes to meet various demographic needs causing stock-outs or excess inventory of certain products.• Product variations to meet different geographical and legal requirements. For example, manuals, labeling and software to meet various language needs.Disconnected sales and operations• Lack of integration between sales/marketing and operations• Planning and review process is extremely manual and time consumingInferior systems• Manual processes, low visibility in a globalized business climate• Multiple non integrated local systems The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • What are the implications?Impact to customer service levels• Stock outs due to insufficient forecast can cause customers to switch suppliers or be dissatisfied• Reduced pricing power; affecting the marginsImproper capital allocation• Forecast created for the wrong product could cause your supply chain to be over-driven resulting in excess inventory• Impact to resources such as capital, space, production resources, etc.• Lost opportunity to sell your products and increase revenue and profitsInability to react to changing market conditions• If changing market conditions are not turned into advantage, profitability may suffer• Competitors may gainUnmet expectations• All of the above could result in unmet corporate expectations and decline in shareholder value The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Demand Driven Supply Chain An approach to mitigating challengesCopyright © Inspirage LLC, 2008. Private and confidential. All rights reserved Page 11 The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Traditional Supply Chains Demand Supply Traditional Definition of Supply Chain Management supplier customer Product design Source: AMR Research partner The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Demand-driven Processes Demand Supply Supply Demand Risk Insights Management Drive a Sense Shape Profitable Demand Demand Demand Response Proactive approach to demand management Product Makes your supply chain demand driven Improved profitability due proper prioritization of demands, Promotes collaboration amongst all stakeholders Technology Supports replenishment system with immediate visibility to changing needs Opportunities Source: AMR Research The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Demand ShapingCopyright © Inspirage LLC, 2008. Private and confidential. All rights reserved Page 14 The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Shaping Demands is the focus of aDemand Driven Supply Network (DDSN) What is “Shaping Demands”? • Shaping demands can be defined as aligning your forecast to reality by taking all possible variables into consideration OR • Fully exploit market to maximize objectives Strategic predictive forecasting • Collaborate with stakeholders • Historical demand patterns • Managing new product introductions • Discounts and promotions • Trade promotion and promotion optimization Operational planning to satisfy demands • Sales and operations planning • Supply planning based on global forecasts • Supply positioning The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Strategic Predictive ForecastingCollaboration• Collaborate to incorporate inputs from different stake-holders in the organization – such as marketing/sales/Operations• Forecast at the appropriate level of aggregation. For example, there may not be enough information for forecast at an individual item/location combinationHistorical demand patterns• Seasonality and Trends• Shape Modeling• Causal FactorsManage new product introductions• New item / store introductions• Lifecycle / supersession / Product phase-in and phase-outsDiscounts and promotion optimization• Effect of discounts and promotions• Promotion optimization The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Operational PlanningTolerance along time and organization dimensions for fulfilling demands• Global forecasting and consumption• Automatically sourcing forecasts to appropriate organizations that fulfill demandsSales and Operations Planning• Review current demand fulfillment• Consider constrained supply• Re-prioritize demandsSupply Positioning• Consider forecast accuracy measures to determine inventory levels• Postponement optimization The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Sample Business processes supported with DemantraCopyright © Inspirage LLC, 2008. Private and confidential. All rights reserved Page 18 The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Workflow enabled collaborationWhy collaboration capabilities are important?• It is extremely critical to bring sales, operations, finance and marketing to agreement on a single forecast number.• A platform that enables collaboration between these stakeholders will result in a better aligned corporation marching towards a common goal.Ability to easily tailor process flows that is custom to each business• Web based workflow development tool allows creating new workflows and modifying canned workflows easy.• For example, you can have a workflow that enables collaboration between account manager, regional manager and country manager before finalizing the forecast.Process to define and handle exceptions• Create workflows to handle exception events such as over/under forecasting and remediation plansWorkflows to integrate external systems• Facilitate integrating external systems’ data through workflows• For example, allocate around intersections that have sales orders The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Workflow enabled collaboration betweenstakeholders The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Disaggregating higher level entries tolower level SKU/LocationWhy is this important?• If the forecast quantities end up entered for the wrong products/locations, it could result in overconsumption and hence result in excess inventory• Can be mitigated with robust disaggregation mechanismsDemantra supports multiple disaggregation schemes• Proportional – where the allocation logic is based on another series• Proport Mechanism to control disaggregation during analytical engine runsProportional• When a “series” is defined, modelers have the ability to define the allocation to be based on another series.• The basis series could be computed based on a business specific logic or could be collected data series such as order history and backlog.Custom Methods• Define custom methods that can be invoked for any special allocation logic.• For example, allocate around intersections that have sales orders The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Disaggregating higher level entries tolower level SKU/Location The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • “Expressions” to facilitate numericalcalculations / quick reviewServer Expressions• These are expressions that uses database grouping functions such as average, sum, etc.• For example, you could have an expression that computes the average selling price at the category level and determine profitability.Client Expressions• These are expressions that enable using mathematical formulas and if-then- else statements using different series data.• For example, you could have an expressions that makes the forecast equal to or above the sales order quantity for any given combination.Color expressions• These are expressions that color code the cell based on conditionality.• For example, you could color all cells red when the forecast variance is above a certain percentage. The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Expressions / Color Coding The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Demantra’s Statistical ForecastingCapabilities Historical data Bayesian • Bayesian-Markov algorithm uses Estimator a mixed model that is better than Multiple causal Bayesian Optimizer best-fit approaches. factors • Unlimited dimensions and Forecast hierarchies Combined model • Forecast tree uses hierarchy to determine the best levels to forecast – For example, start at the lowest levels in the hierarchy Promotion Events and then move up one step at Seasonality a time. Causal Analysis • Attribute based forecasting Trend capabilities • Nodal tuning capabilities Cyclical Patterns • Advanced reporting capabilities Outlier Detection such as graphs, charts, various summarization capabilities. The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Shape ModelingActivity based shape modeling• Demantra captures the profile of historical demand over a period of time• Apply shapes scaled for volume and time to future forecasts• Alignment of future forecasts shape dictated by Quantity Alignment Duration specified in another series• Supported in Demand Planning mode and Promotion Effectiveness modePromotion Shape Modeling• Similar to Activity based shape modeling but in addition considers promotion attributes• Available only in PE modeShape modeling applicable only when there is continuous stream of demand data The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Activity Based Shape Modeling The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Causal Factors• Global Factors – Model global causal factors that apply to all products and locations – For example, holidays such as Thanksgiving and Christmas, seasons, etc• Local Factors – Local causal factors apply to a specific product and location – For example, a snow plough is more likely to sell more during snowy season in the North-East than in Arizona.• Improved forecast accuracy as a result of better incorporation of the causals. The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Member Management• New Products Introduction – All “combinations” are stored at lowest levels – Most members have “combinations” with sales data and hence enabled for forecasting – For introducing new, use tools such as Member Management to enable them for forecasting – Create a new member at any aggregation level in the product hierarchy – but typically lowest level members• Link new products to Locations – Link a new product to a location or an existing product to a new location – Create combinations of product/locations• Dummy history creation – Insert dummy historical records – Enables viewing combinations in worksheets The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • ChainingForecasting new product / stores• Chaining is the process of copying series data from one set of combinations to new set of combinations.• If you have new product/location combinations, use chaining to create history so Demantra can generate forecast.Item Similarity• For example, you created new store X which sells same items as existing store Y• Chaining creates all the relevant item combinations for new store X based on YLocation Similarity• For example, you created a new item B which is similar to item A and sold in all locations• Chaining creates all relevant location combinations for B based on AProport Mechanisms• Multiple proportionality options exist for disaggregating to new combinations – such as Target, Source, Equal and Similar The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Global Forecasting – Publish from Demantra, Consume and Distribute within ASCP• Publish forecast from Demantra to ASCP without the context of an Organization – Define sourcing rules to distribute the forecast to appropriate fulfillment centers based on regions/category/Item and Instance. – ASCP utilizes the sourcing rules to distribute the remaining forecast after consumption.• Consumption at multiple levels in location hierarchy – Zone / Region – Ship to Location• Consumption by multiple levels in Item hierarchy – Item – Demand Class The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Consumption tolerance along time dimensions• Backward Days – First look for the forecast on the day of the sales order. – Then days backwards from sales order date the forecast should be consumed.• Forward Days – After scanning backwards, scan forward to look for forecast to consume.• Consume within time bucket – For non-daily buckets, force the consumption of the forecast only within that bucket and not allow spanning backwards and forwards.• Criticality of consumption – If the forecasts are not consumed properly, supply chain will be overdriven causing excess inventory – All these different options can be taken advantage to shape forecast demands to align with reality. The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Respond – Profitably Balance Supply andDemand • Visibility to logistics and production constraints in one number planning process • Integrated with Strategic Network Optimization and Advanced Supply Chain Planning to evaluate supply constraints – Quickly and interactively simulate impact of demand changes on the supply picture with a common presentation layer • Integrated with Inventory Optimization for safety stock targets and postponement strategies – Quickly simulate impact of demand scenarios and varying budgets on service levels and hedging strategies The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • SummaryCopyright © Inspirage LLC, 2008. Private and confidential. All rights reserved Page 34 The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Path to implementStart with the corporate objectives• Identify and prioritize corporate objectives• For example, improve forecast accuracy by 10% or reduce stock-outs of certain product line, etc.Drill down to specifics• Determine what is needed to accomplish the objectives• For example, better collaboration among stakeholders or improved statistical forecasting capability, etc.Map the software functionality to meet specific requirements• Demantra is a suite of products within larger APS umbrella with many components and overlapping features• Identify the specific features that meet your needs• Then choose the components that provide those featuresLayout an incremental rollout plan• Start with the quick wins• Expand the footprint with minimal change management impact The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Review of Demantra TermsCopyright © Inspirage LLC, 2008. Private and confidential. All rights reserved Page 36 The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Levels• Levels control how data is aggregated and organized. These are used in worksheets, filters, import or export, and forecastingTypes of levels: – Items: group data according to characteristics of items – Locations: group data according to characteristics of locations – Combinations: group data according to time- independent characteristics of item-location combinations (i.e. Sales Rep) – Time: group data by sales date – Promotions: group data according to characteristics of Promotions including Item, Location and Time – Settlements: group data according to characteristics of Settlements including Item, Location and Time The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Series • A set of data that can be displayed in a worksheet table or graph, at any aggregation level • 3 data types of Series: Numeric, String or Date • Types of Series: – Sales Series: Consists of time-dependent data for each item- location combination – Matrix Series: Consists of time-independent data for each item-location combination (i.e. Store Minimum) – Promotion Series: Consists of data for each promotion at each item-location combination, at each time bucket – Level Series: Stores data associated with a specific member in a level The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Worksheets• Within Demantra, users work almost entirely within worksheets• A worksheet is a customized working environment where users can view and edit data• When users save changes back to the database, they become available to other users and to downstream operations• A worksheet consists of one or more views, usually displayed as tabs or MDI within the worksheet• Each view retrieves a set of data that is aggregated in a specific way and that may also be filtered The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Worksheets – UI Components TableMenu andToolbar Graph Member Browser Activity DetailsNotes andAttachments Embedded WorksheetStatus Bar The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Workflow• Web-based• Not accessible to most end users• Used to define and run workflows The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists
    • Let us review on the system• Login to the collaborator workbench using train##/train##• Open worksheet “Consensus Forecast Product Family” The Oracle APS and Demantra Specialists