Learning Scenarios

Willem Manders Hans de Zwart Laura OvertonCharles Jennings David Mallon

“Scenarios are stories about the future,but their purpose is to make betterdecisions in the present”

"When a meeting, or part thereof, is heldunder the Chatham House Rule, participantsare free to use the information received, butneither the identity nor the affiliation of thespeaker(s), nor that of any other participant,may be revealed"

http://learningscenarios.org

@lrnscen #lrnscen

Today (from 10:00 – 13:00)Workshop participants Introduction to scenarios Brainstorming and clustering trends & uncertainties Create mini-scenarios Consolidate scenarios Signs and signals Review learning challenges and strategy

This afternoonWillem, Hans and interested others Introduction to scenarios Brainstorming and clustering trends & uncertainties Create mini-scenarios Consolidate scenarios Signs and signals Review learning challenges and strategy

During the conferenceAll Business Educa participants Introduction to scenarios Brainstorming and clustering trends & uncertainties Create mini-scenarios Consolidate scenarios Signs and signals Review learning challenges and strategy

After the conferenceEverybody individually + teleconference Introduction to scenarios Brainstorming and clustering trends & uncertainties Create mini-scenarios Consolidate scenarios Signs and signals Review learning challenges and strategy

Introduction to scenariosBrainstorming and clustering trends & uncertainties Create mini-scenarios Consolidate scenarios Signs and signals Review learning challenges and strategy

Identifying driving forces adapted from Kees van der Heijden

The Systems Iceberg(adapted from Peter Senge)

News eventsPatterns of systembehaviour (Trends)Deep system structure(Driving Forces)

Uncertainties...

In 60 minutes:Time horizon: 5 – 10 years out (2015-2020)1. Brainstorm key trends and uncertainties Make sure to capture extreme outcomes:2. Cluster, prioritise and eliminate duplicates3. Report back to the whole group

In 60 minutes:1. Put two key independent uncertainties in a matrix2. Describe scenario characteristics for each quadrant3. Create a name for each quadrant4. Report back to the whole group

What is next?

We will consolidate the scenarios and present them tomorrow

We need your help!

Our minimum requirements:1. A newspaper headline for 20202. Three signals from the conference that relate to a particular scenario3. Reflection on how this impacts your strategy

Touch base Friday afternoon...Touch (virtual) base in two months?

Sunset in Sarasota By Flickr user livingonimpulseImage Credits Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic (CC BY 2.0) license Chatham house © 2011 Google Past and Future © Alex Slobodkin (licensed via istockphoto) Tip of the iceberg © paul kline (licensed via istockphoto) Decision making © mattjeacock (licensed via istockphoto)

Learning Scenarios

by Hans de Zwart

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