Ana Liza Solis Climate Monitoring and Prediction - PAGASA/DOST Source :
 
Definition of Terms Weather -  is the specific condition of the atmosphere or “actual state”  at a particular place and  t...
(Global) Climate System –  interactive system consisting of 5 major components, forced or influenced by various external f...
Global warming refers to the increase in the earth’s mean temperature due to the so-called  enhanced greenhouse effect.
 
Source: OSTP Water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2) are the two most abundant natural heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere....
<ul><li>Carbon dioxide: +31%  </li></ul><ul><li>Methane: +151% </li></ul><ul><li>Nitrous oxide: +17% </li></ul>Humans are ...
 
<ul><li>Human activities contribute to climate change by causing changes in Earth’s atmosphere in the  amounts of greenhou...
 
<ul><li>Natural sources </li></ul><ul><li>Soils (biological processes) </li></ul><ul><li>Ocean </li></ul><ul><li>Natural s...
Man-Made Sources of GhGs <ul><li>Nitrous Oxide: </li></ul><ul><li>Bacterial Breakdown of Nitrogen in Soils and Oceans </li...
Man-Made Sources of GhGs <ul><ul><li>Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) </li></u...
Man-Made Sources of GhGs (Human Activity) Carbon dioxide
Methane CH 3  accounts for 20% of additional greenhouse effects Man-Made Sources of GhGs (Human Activity) Carbon dioxide
Man-Made Sources of GhGs (Human Activity)
 
Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Period  Rate Years   /decade Source: IPCC 100  0.074  0.018 50  0.1...
 
<ul><ul><li>Alters the composition of the global atmosphere, which  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Is an addition to natural  ...
Manifestations of Climate Change Melting of Glaciers Arctic sea ice area decreased by 2.7% per decade
sets of observational evidence supporting the assessment that climate change is happening
<ul><li>Recent observations show that ghg emissions and many aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary o...
<ul><ul><li>sea-level rise </li></ul></ul>
Manifestations of Climate Change The  Thames Barrier , a major flood defense system in London designed to be used once eve...
Manifestations of Climate Change  … Tornados wreak havoc in the North Island Stuff.co.nz |  Recently….July 2007 Chilean La...
 
<ul><ul><li>- Among longest coastlines in  the world with 32,400 kms (susceptible to  storm surges ) </li></ul></ul><ul><l...
HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO TYPHOONS –  LOCATED WITHIN PACIFIC TYPHOON BELT AREA VISITED BY AVERAGE 20 TYPHOONS EVERY YEAR With ...
The Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disturbances and disasters. The past typhoons have been  unusua...
LANDSLIDES MUD FLOWS SINCE 2003 AT LEAST 3,000 PEOPLE DIED DUE TO LANDSLIDES AND MUD FLOWS.
 
Observed Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines  Period: 1951-2006  (departures from the  1961-1990 normal values) almos...
LUZON VISAYAS MINDANAO 1951-80 1961-90 1971-00
Is this the Future? <ul><li>Global warming is inadequate to describe the changes we can expect in the Earth System.  </li>...
 
<ul><li>Mitigation  -  human intervention to reduce the source and enhance the sinks </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation -  capac...
 
MITIGATION
MITIGATION
 
<ul><li>Risk Assessment and Hazard Mapping </li></ul><ul><li>Information and Education Campaign </li></ul><ul><li>Seasonal...
Enhancement of Monitoring System CEBU SC.GARDEN Quezon City MTSAT NOAA WAFS LEGEND: Chinese FY2 MODIS Meteorological Satel...
Satellite Receiving Facilities MODIS FY2 (Chinese) NOAA
Installation of more automatic weather stations
<ul><ul><li>Meteorological Buoys  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wind Profilers </li></ul></ul>
PROVISION OF SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST
Drought Monitoring System
“ Long-range planning does not deal with future decisions, but with the future of present decisions.”   Peter Drucker  WMO...
Thank you  “ tracking the sky . . . helping the country” The real cause of the melting ice caps
 
 
 
 
 
<ul><ul><li>increase in malnutrition </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>mixed effects on malaria </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>increa...
DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN TO THE PHILIPPINES AT THE END OF 21 ST  CENTURY?
Temperature Projection 1.8-3  C increase 1.8-3  C increase 2.1-2.7   C increase 2.1-2.7   C increase Increase in entir...
RAINFALL SCENARIO END OF 21 ST CENTURY JFM - An  increase in  rainfall (0.5 - 2  mm/day)  decrease over  the  mountainous ...
 
 
Intensity of precipitation events is projected to increase.  Even in areas where mean precipitation decreases, precipitati...
Intensity of precipitation events is projected to increase.  Even in areas where mean precipitation decreases, precipitati...
 
Climate Change Scenarios (MRI GCM 20km) FUTURE (2075-2099) END OF 21 ST  CENTURY
Significant increase in the frequency of hot days Significant increase in the frequency of warm nights <ul><li>Majority of...
 
 
 
 
 
 
INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO ADDRESS  CLIMATE CHANGE  1990   1 st  IPCC report -  the planet seems to be warming -  Human act...
2007   Bali roadmap adopted at COP 13, Bali Conference 2008   Poznan Conference (Poland) 2009   Copenhagen Protocol expect...
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Villamor Jan29

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  • Greenhouse is made of glass or strong semi-transparent plastic material. When the sun shines, it produces energy in the form of sunlight, passes thru the glass and heats inside of that greenhouse, the ground, plants, vegetable, etc. Some of IR is absorbed, but most of it escapes to space.
  • global average air temperature increased by 0.74°C from 1906 to 2005 Strong temperature increase since 1975 (unprecedented)
  • Global mean temperatures has increased; b. Sea levels are rising; and c. Snow cover in Arctic has decreased
  • More intense and increase in frequency of events
  • These are based on what has been observed locally, so we need local impact assessment of future changes in climate. That’s why there is an increasing demand…
  • Our available data shows that there is an increasing trend in the number of tropical cyclones in the Visayas and decreasing trend in Mindanao. There is no trend in the number of tropical cyclones in Luzon. In general, there is no trend in the total number of annual tropical cyclones in the Philippines (the blue bar represents 1951-1980 30-year total number of TC, pink bar represents 1961-1990 30-year total TC, and yellow shows the 1971-2000 30-year total TC).
  • Increase in incidence of diseases in animals and crops Availability of food could decline; Prices will rise as a result; Employment opportunities may become less; More people could face hunger and starvation
  • increase in malnutrition mixed effects on malaria increase number of people at risk with dengue
  • DJF – 1.8- 3 Mam- 1.8 3 Jja 2.1-2.7 Son2.1-2.7
  • There are few significant decreases in hot days at coastal stations (Aparri, Virac, Puerto Princesa)
  • Increase in incidence of diseases in animals and crops Availability of food could decline; Prices will rise as a result; Employment opportunities may become less; More people could face hunger and starvation
  • increase in malnutrition mixed effects on malaria increase number of people at risk with dengue
  • Villamor Jan29

    1. 1. Ana Liza Solis Climate Monitoring and Prediction - PAGASA/DOST Source :
    2. 3. Definition of Terms Weather - is the specific condition of the atmosphere or “actual state” at a particular place and time. Climate - is the “average weather” or normal state of the atmosphere and its long term variability over a particular period (say over month, a season, a year or several years)
    3. 4. (Global) Climate System – interactive system consisting of 5 major components, forced or influenced by various external forcings (i.e.,sun and human activity) Cryosphere
    4. 5. Global warming refers to the increase in the earth’s mean temperature due to the so-called enhanced greenhouse effect.
    5. 7. Source: OSTP Water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2) are the two most abundant natural heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere. These and other gases keep the Earth’s surface about 60°F (33 °C) warmer than it otherwise would be. Without this natural greenhouse or blanket effect, life as we know it would not be possible Land,vege, ocean,etc. trapped by Sunlight - heat energy
    6. 8. <ul><li>Carbon dioxide: +31% </li></ul><ul><li>Methane: +151% </li></ul><ul><li>Nitrous oxide: +17% </li></ul>Humans are increasing heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere = enhanced greenhouse effect ‘ Thickening blanket’
    7. 10. <ul><li>Human activities contribute to climate change by causing changes in Earth’s atmosphere in the amounts of greenhouse gases, aerosols and cloudiness. </li></ul>How do human activities contribute to climate change?
    8. 12. <ul><li>Natural sources </li></ul><ul><li>Soils (biological processes) </li></ul><ul><li>Ocean </li></ul><ul><li>Natural sources </li></ul><ul><li>Wetlands </li></ul><ul><li>Termites </li></ul><ul><li>Ocean </li></ul><ul><li>Natural sources </li></ul><ul><li>Tropical soils (wet forests) </li></ul><ul><li>Ocean </li></ul><ul><li>Natural sources </li></ul><ul><li>none </li></ul>Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide Hydroflourocarbons NATURAL SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GASES Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxides Hydrofluorocarbons
    9. 13. Man-Made Sources of GhGs <ul><li>Nitrous Oxide: </li></ul><ul><li>Bacterial Breakdown of Nitrogen in Soils and Oceans </li></ul><ul><li>Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer and Pesticides in Agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>Biomass Burning </li></ul><ul><li>Combustion Process Vehicles </li></ul><ul><li>Acid Production </li></ul>Nitrous oxides
    10. 14. Man-Made Sources of GhGs <ul><ul><li>Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6 </li></ul></ul>Hydrofluorocarbons
    11. 15. Man-Made Sources of GhGs (Human Activity) Carbon dioxide
    12. 16. Methane CH 3 accounts for 20% of additional greenhouse effects Man-Made Sources of GhGs (Human Activity) Carbon dioxide
    13. 17. Man-Made Sources of GhGs (Human Activity)
    14. 19. Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Period Rate Years  /decade Source: IPCC 100 0.074  0.018 50 0.128  0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999, 1991 ,2000
    15. 21. <ul><ul><li>Alters the composition of the global atmosphere, which </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Is an addition to natural climate variability* </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>a change of climate attributed directly/indirectly to human activity that </li></ul></ul>* fluctuations / variations of climate observed since the instrumental period
    16. 22. Manifestations of Climate Change Melting of Glaciers Arctic sea ice area decreased by 2.7% per decade
    17. 23. sets of observational evidence supporting the assessment that climate change is happening
    18. 24. <ul><li>Recent observations show that ghg emissions and many aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary of IPCC projections. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>global mean temperature </li></ul></ul>
    19. 25. <ul><ul><li>sea-level rise </li></ul></ul>
    20. 26. Manifestations of Climate Change The Thames Barrier , a major flood defense system in London designed to be used once every two to three years is now being used six times a year due to increased rainfall. More Rains Forecast As England And Wales See Wettest Months Since 1766 Henley-On-Thames, England (AFP) July 26, 2007
    21. 27. Manifestations of Climate Change … Tornados wreak havoc in the North Island Stuff.co.nz | Recently….July 2007 Chilean Lake Vanishes in Two Months By Eduardo Gallardo Buenos Aires has first snow since 1918 James Sturcke and agencies July 10, 2007 Guardian Unlimited ICE WORLD Tibetian Warming Trend Gaining Pace         Tibet's sensitive alpine environment is seen as a key barometer of the world's climate. by Staff Writers Beijing (AFP) Jul 23, 2007 Deadly Monsoon Rains Worst in 25 Years NEW DELHI, India ,
    22. 29. <ul><ul><li>- Among longest coastlines in the world with 32,400 kms (susceptible to storm surges ) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>DUE TO ITS GEOGRAPHIC FEAUTURES </li></ul><ul><ul><li>- Highly susceptible to flooding and inundations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- Archipelagic- 7,100 islands </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>with low lying areas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- Highly susceptible to sea level rise </li></ul></ul>REGIONS IN THE PHILIPPINES THAT ARE VULNERABLE TO A 1-METER RISE IN SEA LEVEL SOURCE: Greenpeace Southeast Asia published at BizNewsAsia <ul><li>POOR ACCESS TO RESOURCES </li></ul><ul><li>LOW LEVEL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT </li></ul>RANK REGION NUMBER OF MUNICIPALITIES LAND AREA VULNERABLE TO 1 meter SLR (m 2 ) 1 ARMM 39 137,635,200 2 Region 9 40 81,129,600 3 Region 4B 64 75,807,900 4 Region 8 92 75,662,100 5 Region 5 86 74,277,000 6 Region 7 68 52,747,200 7 Region 6 68 38,118,600 8 Region 11 20 30,107,700 9 Region 4A 46 23,805,900 10 Region 1 48 20,322,900 11 Region 12 19 16,232,400 12 CARAGA 40 12,611,700 13 Region 10 31 12,109,500 14 Region 2 18 6,439,500 15 Region 3 23 4,252,500 16 NCR 1 380,700
    23. 30. HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO TYPHOONS – LOCATED WITHIN PACIFIC TYPHOON BELT AREA VISITED BY AVERAGE 20 TYPHOONS EVERY YEAR With the projected increase in temperature this could mean much stronger and more intense tropical cyclones. 1128 Actual tracks
    24. 31. The Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disturbances and disasters. The past typhoons have been unusually heavy and devastating to our country and our people. TY Reming (DURIAN) source:www.albay.gov.ph/reming NOV 2006 Typhoon Frank (Fengshen) June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars) www.
    25. 32. LANDSLIDES MUD FLOWS SINCE 2003 AT LEAST 3,000 PEOPLE DIED DUE TO LANDSLIDES AND MUD FLOWS.
    26. 34. Observed Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values) almost 3 times increase in maximum temperatures BACKGROUND INFORMATION: observed changes An increase of 0.6104C from 1951-2006 ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE MEAN ANNUAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE An increase of 0.3472C from 1951-2006 MEAN ANNUAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURE An increase of 0.8904C from 1951-2006
    27. 35. LUZON VISAYAS MINDANAO 1951-80 1961-90 1971-00
    28. 36. Is this the Future? <ul><li>Global warming is inadequate to describe the changes we can expect in the Earth System. </li></ul><ul><li>The focus is not on temperature alone but also on the anticipated shifts in climate variability ; specifically the </li></ul><ul><li>projected increase in the frequency and severity of extreme events. </li></ul>
    29. 38. <ul><li>Mitigation - human intervention to reduce the source and enhance the sinks </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation - capacity to cope up with the adverse impacts of climate change </li></ul><ul><li>- To reduce vulnerability </li></ul><ul><li>Access to Financial resources - part of developed countries’ obligation under the convention to enhance adaptive capacities of developing countries </li></ul><ul><li>Technology Transfer </li></ul>
    30. 40. MITIGATION
    31. 41. MITIGATION
    32. 43. <ul><li>Risk Assessment and Hazard Mapping </li></ul><ul><li>Information and Education Campaign </li></ul><ul><li>Seasonal Forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring and Early Warning System </li></ul>S&T –based Climate Change Adaptation Strategies
    33. 44. Enhancement of Monitoring System CEBU SC.GARDEN Quezon City MTSAT NOAA WAFS LEGEND: Chinese FY2 MODIS Meteorological Satellite Facility
    34. 45. Satellite Receiving Facilities MODIS FY2 (Chinese) NOAA
    35. 46. Installation of more automatic weather stations
    36. 47. <ul><ul><li>Meteorological Buoys </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wind Profilers </li></ul></ul>
    37. 48. PROVISION OF SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST
    38. 49. Drought Monitoring System
    39. 50. “ Long-range planning does not deal with future decisions, but with the future of present decisions.”   Peter Drucker WMO/OMM
    40. 51. Thank you “ tracking the sky . . . helping the country” The real cause of the melting ice caps
    41. 57. <ul><ul><li>increase in malnutrition </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>mixed effects on malaria </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>increase number of people at risk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>with dengue </li></ul></ul>
    42. 58. DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN TO THE PHILIPPINES AT THE END OF 21 ST CENTURY?
    43. 59. Temperature Projection 1.8-3  C increase 1.8-3  C increase 2.1-2.7  C increase 2.1-2.7  C increase Increase in entire archipelago; Greater increase in MAM FUTURE (2075-2099) Solis,2009 (Capacity Development for Adaptation to Climate Change in Asia-Climate Change Analysis)
    44. 60. RAINFALL SCENARIO END OF 21 ST CENTURY JFM - An increase in rainfall (0.5 - 2 mm/day) decrease over the mountainous areas ( W.Luzon )            Eastern part wet, will be more wet more dry increase + Areas statistically significant at 95% level AMJ - Rainfall reduction in entire archipelago (5 - 20%); greater decrease over Luzon and the mountainous areas
    45. 63. Intensity of precipitation events is projected to increase. Even in areas where mean precipitation decreases, precipitation intensity is projected to increase but there would be longer periods between rainfall events. “ It rains less frequently, but when it does rain, there is more precipitation for a given event.” (Tebaldi et al. 2006) Extremes will have more impact than changes in mean climate
    46. 64. Intensity of precipitation events is projected to increase. Even in areas where mean precipitation decreases, precipitation intensity is projected to increase but there would be longer periods between rainfall events. “ It rains less frequently, but when it does rain, there is more precipitation for a given event.” (Tebaldi et al. 2006) Extremes will have more impact than changes in mean climate
    47. 66. Climate Change Scenarios (MRI GCM 20km) FUTURE (2075-2099) END OF 21 ST CENTURY
    48. 67. Significant increase in the frequency of hot days Significant increase in the frequency of warm nights <ul><li>Majority of stations show an increase in hot days and warm nights </li></ul>Significant decrease in the number of cold days Significant decrease in the number of cool nights <ul><li>Decreases in cold nights and cool days are significant and almost all throughout the country. </li></ul>
    49. 74. INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE 1990 1 st IPCC report - the planet seems to be warming - Human activity seems to be responsible for it 1992 2 nd Earth Summit, Rio de Janeiro - UNFCCC was adopted - Call for a stabilization of GHG emissions by 2000 1994 UNFCCC entered into force - Philippines ratified UNFCCC 1997 Kyoto Protocol was adopted at COP 3, Kyoto Conference 2005 Kyoto Protocol entered into force 2007 4 th IPCC report - Equivocally, the planet is warming due to man-made activities
    50. 75. 2007 Bali roadmap adopted at COP 13, Bali Conference 2008 Poznan Conference (Poland) 2009 Copenhagen Protocol expected - 2 nd KP commitment period INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE
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