Fundamental analysis lecture mba finace


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Fundamental analysis lecture mba finace

  2. 2. Fundamental vs. Technical <ul><ul><li>Fundamental = Qualitative analysis of a company’s fundamental drivers driven by factual numbers and industry analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technical = Quantitative (Charts) The quantitative performance of a company’s security </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. WHAT IS FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS? <ul><li>Fundamental analysis is the examination of the underlying forces that affect the well being of the economy, industry groups, and companies. </li></ul><ul><li>The most common way that fundamental analysis is done in is in three steps: </li></ul>
  4. 4. fundamental analysis is done in is in three steps <ul><li>1. Economic Analysis:- </li></ul><ul><li>The first step to this type of analysis includes looking at the macroeconomic situation. </li></ul><ul><li>GDP </li></ul><ul><li>growth rates </li></ul><ul><li>Inflation </li></ul><ul><li>interest rates </li></ul><ul><li>exchange rates, </li></ul><ul><li>productivity </li></ul><ul><li>energy prices. </li></ul>
  5. 5. <ul><li>Analyze the state of the world economy </li></ul><ul><li>Pick certain asset classes that will outperform others </li></ul><ul><li>Pick geographic locations </li></ul><ul><li>Narrow to industry analysis </li></ul>
  6. 6. 2. Industry Analysis <ul><li>The SECOND step taken in FUNDAMENTAL analysis is looking at the industry as a whole. </li></ul><ul><li>INDUSTRY ANALYSIS LOOKS AT </li></ul><ul><li>total sales </li></ul><ul><li>price levels </li></ul><ul><li>competition and their effects </li></ul><ul><li>Foreign competition </li></ul><ul><li>any entrances or exits from the industry </li></ul>
  7. 7. 3. Company Analysis:- <ul><li>Last in this process of studying the fundamentals includes looking at the company individually </li></ul><ul><li>This includes looking at </li></ul><ul><li>unit sales </li></ul><ul><li>prices </li></ul><ul><li>new products </li></ul><ul><li>earnings and </li></ul><ul><li>Any chance of debt or equity occurring </li></ul>
  8. 8. Economic analysis <ul><li>The economy is like the tide and the various industry groups and individual companies are like boats </li></ul><ul><li>When the economy expands, most industry groups and companies benefit and grow. </li></ul><ul><li>When the economy declines, most sectors and companies usually suffer </li></ul><ul><li>Many economists link economic expansion and contraction to the level of interest rates. </li></ul><ul><li>Interest rates are seen as a leading indicator for the stock market as well. </li></ul>
  9. 9. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (GDP) <ul><li>GDP is one of the core indicators of the current condition of a country's economy. </li></ul><ul><li>It measures the monetary value of all final goods and services produced over a specified period (one year) within the boundaries of a country. </li></ul><ul><li>Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity; however it is only released quarterly </li></ul>
  10. 10. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (GNP) <ul><li>The broad components of GDP are: </li></ul><ul><li>consumption </li></ul><ul><li>Investment </li></ul><ul><li>net exports </li></ul><ul><li>government purchases </li></ul><ul><li>and inventories. </li></ul>
  11. 11. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION <ul><li>Personal consumption expenditures ( PCE ) represent roughly 2/3 of GDP. By monitoring retail sales, policy makers are able to make an assessment of the likely growth of PCE for the current and future quarters. </li></ul>
  12. 12. INFLATION <ul><li>Is a general increase in prices in an economy and consequent fall in the purchasing power of money. </li></ul><ul><li>Economists distinguish between two types of inflation. </li></ul><ul><li>Demand-pull inflation arises when the economy is trying to spend beyond its capacity to produce. </li></ul><ul><li>Cost-push inflation is driven by increases in nominal wages and in the prices of non-wage inputs such as raw materials and energy. </li></ul>
  13. 13. INTEREST RATES <ul><li>If there is an uncertainty in the market in terms of interest rates </li></ul><ul><li>then any developments regarding interest rates will usually have a direct and immediate effect on the currency market. </li></ul><ul><li>Generally, when a country raises its interest rates, it’s currency will strengthen in relation to other currencies around the world </li></ul>
  14. 14. INTEREST RATES <ul><li>WHEN INTEREST RATES ARE HIGHER global assets will be shifted internationally by their owners to gain a higher return on their investments </li></ul><ul><li>Interest rate hikes are usually not good news for a nation’s internal stock markets because many investors within the country will withdraw money from a country's stock market to take advantage of the higher / more secure rate of return. </li></ul>
  15. 15. Consumer Price Index (CPI) <ul><li>CPI IS An index designed to measure the change in price of a fixed market basket of goods and services. </li></ul><ul><li>The market basket of goods and services is representative of the purchases of a typical urban consumer. </li></ul><ul><li>The index is intended to measure pure price change only; attempts are made to remove changes in price resulting from changes in quality. </li></ul>
  16. 16. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX <ul><li>The rate of change of the CPI is one of the key measures of inflation for the U.S. economy. </li></ul><ul><li>Acceleration or deceleration of inflation may signal that a change in monetary policy may be appropriate </li></ul>
  17. 17. Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization INDEX <ul><li>An index designed to measure changes in the level of output in the industrial sector of the economy. </li></ul><ul><li>The index is grouped by both products (consumer goods, business equipment, intermediate goods, and materials) and industry (manufacturing, mining, and utilities </li></ul>
  18. 18. Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization <ul><li>The industrial sector of the economy represents only about 20% of GDP, because changes in GDP are heavily concentrated in the industrial sector, changes in this index provide </li></ul><ul><li>useful information on the current growth of GDP. </li></ul><ul><li>information on the overall level of resource utilization in the economy which may in turn provide information on the likely future course of inflation. </li></ul><ul><li>Greater utilization will tend to increase inflation </li></ul>
  19. 19. Business Sales and Inventories <ul><li>Total current-dollar sales and inventories for the manufacturing, wholesale, and retail sectors of the economy </li></ul><ul><li>The rate of inventory accumulation plays a key role </li></ul><ul><li>in determining the current pace of economic growth </li></ul><ul><li>provides useful clues about the future pace of growth as well. </li></ul><ul><li>For example, </li></ul><ul><li>if inventories are accumulating at a rapid pace, such that inventory sales ratios are rising, </li></ul><ul><li>it may portend a slowing of growth in the near future as firms cut production to bring inventories back into line with sales. </li></ul><ul><li>Vice versa, if inventories are growing slowly or actually falling, it may signal a future pickup in production. </li></ul>
  20. 20. S&P 500 Stock Index <ul><li>S&p 500 is one of several indices designed to measure changes in price of a broad array of stocks. </li></ul><ul><li>The stock market is one measure of the current value of the nation's stock of capital and is often viewed as a barometer of business and consumer confidence regarding the future. </li></ul><ul><li>A high and/or rising stock market may signal robust growth of business investment and consumer spending in the near future </li></ul><ul><li>while a low and/or falling stock market may signal sluggish spending. For this reason, the S&P 500 is 1 component of the Index of Leading Indicators. </li></ul>
  21. 21. EMPLOYMENT <ul><li>The unemployment rate represents the percentage of employable individuals who are actively looking for work within the county. </li></ul><ul><li>Unemployment has been a persistent problem in industrial economies during economic slowdowns over the last 200 years and is therefore used as a primary indicator of the health of an economy. </li></ul><ul><li>In most cases, statistics are based on the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. A certain level of unemployment is considered to be unavoidable due to </li></ul><ul><li>(1) structural changes in an economy </li></ul><ul><li>(2) workers who are voluntary switching jobs. </li></ul><ul><li>This unavoidable level of unemployment is called the natural level of unemployment. </li></ul>
  22. 22. INTERNATIONAL TRADE <ul><li>The trade balance portrays the net difference (over a period of time) between the imports and exports of a nation. </li></ul><ul><li>When a nation imports more than it exports, the trade balance shows a deficit. </li></ul><ul><li>Although this is for the most part considered unfavorable, a deficit in and of itself is not necessarily a bad thing. </li></ul>
  23. 23. GLOBAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS <ul><li>OVER VIEW </li></ul><ul><li>Growth in the WORLD economy has resumed after the most virulent recession in decades. </li></ul><ul><li>Recession caused by world financial meltdown triggered by the subprime loan problem </li></ul>
  24. 24. World economic recovery continued <ul><li>The recovery is driven by </li></ul><ul><li>exceptionally strong demand-supporting policy measures </li></ul><ul><li>public interventions in financial markets </li></ul><ul><li>a strong pick-up in demand in the THE INDUSTRIAL WORLD </li></ul><ul><li>a positive contribution from inventory adjustment </li></ul>
  25. 25. World economic recovery <ul><li>unemployment is set to continue to rise well into 2010 and to fall only modestly in 2011 from its peak of over 9% </li></ul>
  26. 26. Table 1.1. A modest recovery from widespread recession OECD area, unless noted otherwise Average 2009 2010 2011 1997-2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 q4 q4 q4 Per cent Real GDP growth¹ 2.8 2.7 0.6 -3.5 1.9 2.5 -1.0 2.1 2.8 United States 3.2 2.1 0.4 -2.5 2.5 2.8 -0.3 2.5 3.0 Euro Area 2.3 2.7 0.5 -4.0 0.9 1.7 -2.1 1.2 2.0 Japan 1.1 2.3 -0.7 -5.3 1.8 2.0 -1.1 1.4 2.2 Output gap² 0.1 1.8 0.3 -4.6 -4.1 -3.2 Unemployment rate³ 6.5 5.6 5.9 8.2 9.0 8.8 8.8 9.1 8.6 Inflation⁴ 3.0 2.3 3.2 0.5 1.3 1.2 0.7 1.2 1.2 Fiscal balance⁵ -2.0 -1.3 -3.5 -8.2 -8.3 -7.6 Memorandum items World trade growth 7.1 7.3 3.0 -12.5 6.0 7.7 World real GDP growth⁶ 3.8 4.6 2.2 -1.7 3.4 3.7 <ul><li>Year-on-year increase; last three columns show the increase over a year earlier. </li></ul><ul><li>Per cent of potential GDP. </li></ul><ul><li>Per cent of labor force. </li></ul><ul><li>Private consumption deflator. Year-on-year increase; last 3 columns show the increase over a year earlier </li></ul><ul><li>Per cent of GDP. </li></ul><ul><li>OECD countries plus Brazil, Russia, India and China only, representing 81% of world GDP purchasing power parities. Fixed weights based on 2005 GDP and purchasing power parities </li></ul><ul><li>Source: OECD Economic Outlook 86 database </li></ul>
  27. 27. World economic out look <ul><li>Upward and downward risks are broadly balanced </li></ul><ul><li>The uncertainty surrounding this projection is very high, but the risks are broadly balanced </li></ul><ul><li>Financial conditions could continue to improve faster and more extensively than assumed, setting in motion a positive feedback loop: </li></ul>
  28. 28. Upward and downward risks are broadly balanced <ul><li>better economic prospects and stronger business investment driven by better financial conditions reducing concerns about the health of financial institutions </li></ul><ul><li>in turn improving financial conditions, and thereby growth, still further. </li></ul><ul><li>On the other hand, financial conditions could worsen abruptly, for example, if a large financial institution were to get into difficulty </li></ul>
  29. 29. UNEMPLOYMENT <ul><li>Unemployment also represents a negative risk to the outlook. </li></ul><ul><li>as its continued increase may depress household expenditure and negatively affect financial institutions to a greater extent than anticipated. </li></ul>
  30. 30. Economic policy requirements are… <ul><li>Monetary policy. Given continued slack, close-to-zero interest rates are appropriate in most OECD countries until the latter half of 2010 and in Japan to beyond the projection period </li></ul><ul><li>scale back monetary policy stimulus as the recovery progresses… </li></ul><ul><li>the process of normalization of interest rates must start thereafter and progress at a pace which will depend inter alia on the withdrawal of other demand-supporting measures </li></ul><ul><li>Given low levels of inflation, policy interest rates would only need to reach neutrality by the time that upward pressures on inflation emerge. </li></ul>
  31. 31. Fiscal policy. <ul><li>Currently all western world fiscal policy is that of stimulating the economy </li></ul><ul><li>policy stimulus measures already decided need to be implemented fully. </li></ul><ul><li>However, as the recovery gathers strength, the focus needs to shift from supporting aggregate demand to consolidating budgets. </li></ul>
  32. 32. Financial policy <ul><li>In order to reduce uncertainty, and thus facilitate recapitalization. </li></ul><ul><li>pressure must be maintained on banks to write down the value of problem assets on their balance sheets . </li></ul><ul><li>to sell such assets to public or private asset management companies </li></ul>
  33. 33. Structural policy. <ul><li>As the recovery progresses, crisis-driven emergency measures of subsidizing production ( e.g. in the auto industry) or subsidizing jobs (e.g. short time working schemes) need to be scaled back </li></ul><ul><li>as their continuation would undermine the productive capacity of the economy </li></ul>
  34. 34. Zambian economy <ul><li>ZAMBIA </li></ul><ul><li>Area: 752,614 sq km </li></ul><ul><li>Population Estimate: 12.1 mn </li></ul><ul><li>Independence: 1964 </li></ul><ul><li>GDP: US $14,757.6 mn: 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>GDP per Capita: US $1,22 </li></ul>
  35. 35. Developments in Real GDP up 2009 <ul><li>Economy has experienced strong growth averaging at least 5.9% over the last five years and 6.2% over the last three years </li></ul><ul><li>Growth driven by the private sector supported by sound economic policies. </li></ul><ul><li>Economy benefited from favourable external sector developments: </li></ul><ul><li>Debt relief in 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>And High copper prices until the Q3 of 2008. </li></ul>
  36. 36. Table 1: Major Macroeconomic Indicators, 2004-2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* Real GDP growth (%) 5.4 5.3 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.3 GDP per capita (US $) 515.1 654.9 908.1 1,024.1 1,229.8 902.2 Inflation end-period (%) 17.5 15.9 8.2 8.9 16.6 11.5 Average selling exchange rate(ZK/ US $) 4,670.94 3,454.71 4,142.75 3,845.77 3, 756.01 5,157.65 Comm. banks weighted lending base rate (%) 29.8 27.4 21.6 18.3 20.8 23.2 Comm. banks ASR (%) 5.6 6.1 6.1 4.8 4.8 4.7 II Developments in Real GDP
  37. 37. Zambian economy <ul><li>Despite global economic crisis, economy expected to </li></ul><ul><li>grow by 6.3% in 2009 from the 6.0% in 2008. </li></ul><ul><li>This is due to robust growth in mining, agriculture and construction sectors. </li></ul><ul><li>Mining growing by 21.4% </li></ul><ul><li>Construction by 15.5% </li></ul><ul><li>Agriculture by 7.1% </li></ul>
  38. 38. Mining sector <ul><li>Mining expected to post robust growth of 13% in 2009 (2.4% in 2008) largely due to: </li></ul><ul><li>Improved copper prices; </li></ul><ul><li>Conducive business environment; </li></ul><ul><li>Commencement of production at Lumwana Copper </li></ul><ul><li>Mine </li></ul><ul><li>4.And Investments into operations at KCM, MCM and </li></ul><ul><li>Chambishi Copper Smelter that increased production </li></ul><ul><li>capacity </li></ul>
  39. 39. Agriculture <ul><li>Agriculture - strong recovery of 5.2% in 2009 (1.2% in 2008): </li></ul><ul><li>Maize output rose to 1.8 million metric tons from 1.5million metric tons, the highest production in 10 years. </li></ul><ul><li>Notable contribution from small-scale farmers supported by the Farmer Input Support Programme and marketing services </li></ul>
  40. 40. construction <ul><li>Construction: </li></ul><ul><li>Increased public & commercial infrastructure investments; </li></ul><ul><li>Continued high demand for housing; and </li></ul><ul><li>Expanded domestic production of cement. </li></ul>
  41. 41. Manufacturing and tourism <ul><li>However, projected slow down in manufacturing and a contraction in tourism </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacturing: </li></ul><ul><li>increase in the cost of imported raw materials mainly </li></ul><ul><li>due to the depreciation of the Kwacha (first half of </li></ul><ul><li>the year); </li></ul><ul><li>decline in export demand; and </li></ul><ul><li>continued stiff competition from cheaper imports </li></ul><ul><li>2.Tourism: </li></ul><ul><li>Fall in the number of foreign tourists, in view of the </li></ul><ul><li>global financial crisis. </li></ul>
  42. 42. Inflation and Monetary Developments <ul><li>Inflation declined to 11.5% in Nov. 2009 from 16.6% in Dec.2008. </li></ul><ul><li>Higher inflation in 2008 due to: </li></ul><ul><li>Higher international fuel and food prices ; </li></ul><ul><li>Depreciation of the Kwacha; </li></ul><ul><li>Higher transport costs; and </li></ul><ul><li>Electricity load-shedding. </li></ul><ul><li>Fall in inflation in 2009 due to: </li></ul><ul><li>decline in food prices; </li></ul><ul><li>Relatively strengthening of exchange rate; and </li></ul><ul><li>Stability in domestic fuel prices and transport costs. </li></ul><ul><li>Lending rates trending downwards ( 23.1% in Oct. 2009) </li></ul>
  43. 43. External Sector Performance <ul><li>Current Account deficit projected to narrow to US $483.9 mn in 2009 (US $1,049.5 mn in 2008); </li></ul><ul><li>Metal exports projected to increase by 9.6% (As at Oct 2009: 557,750mt (Oct 2008: 463,280.52 mt); </li></ul><ul><li>Gross International Reserves of US $1,887.1 mn on 30th Nov 2009 equivalent t to 5 months of import cover. (First time in last thirty-eight years) </li></ul>
  44. 44. Financial and Equity Market Performance <ul><li>Financial Sector has Remained Resilient: </li></ul><ul><li>Overall financial condition of the banking sector satisfactory with adequate capital. </li></ul><ul><li>However, NPLs increased to12.9% at Oct 2009 (Dec. 2008: 7.2%) </li></ul><ul><li>Five new commercial banks granted licenses in 2009 to operate. </li></ul><ul><li>First National Bank Zambia Ltd </li></ul><ul><li>United Bank for Africa Zambia Ltd </li></ul><ul><li>Ecobank Zambia Ltd </li></ul><ul><li>International Commercial Bank Zambia Ltd </li></ul><ul><li>Access Bank Zambia Ltd </li></ul><ul><li>Performance of NBFI sector also satisfactory </li></ul><ul><li>Performance of LuSE All-share index showing recovery </li></ul>
  45. 45. 2010 and Medium Term Economic Outlook <ul><li>Inflation projected to fall to single digit levels; </li></ul><ul><li>The economy to continue growing above 6.0%; </li></ul><ul><li>Interest rates are expected to continue trending downwards; </li></ul><ul><li>Satisfactory liquidity as more forex flows in due to the </li></ul><ul><li>increase in earnings from the NTEs and mining sector revenues </li></ul>