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    Book of proceedings 7th international conference on industrial engineering and industrial Book of proceedings 7th international conference on industrial engineering and industrial Presentation Transcript

    • 10-12th july, 2013 & 2013 Spain ICIEOM XIX 7 th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización 2013 www.cio2013.org Fundación General INSISOC S O C I A L S Y S T E M S ENGINEERING CENTRE bpmsat Business Solutions ABEPRO ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE ENGENHARIA DE PRODUÇÃO & Project Management Technologies Cátedra UVa Asociación para el Desarrollo de la Ingeniería de Organización Industrial Engineering and Complexity Management Book of Abstracts of the Managing Complexity: Challenges for Industrial and Operations Management. Industrial Engineering and Complexity Management Book of Proccedings of the ABEPRO ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE ENGENHARIA DE PRODUÇÃO Asociación para el Desarrollo de la Ingeniería de Organización INSISOC S O C I A L S Y S T E M S ENGINEERING CENTRE
    • Industrial Engineering and Complexity Management
    • BOOK OF PROCEEDINGS 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Valladolid July 10-12th, 2013
    • Tittle/Título de la obra: “Industrial Engineering and Complexity Management”. Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Executive Editors/Editores: Cesáreo Hernández Iglesias José M. Pérez Ríos Editorial Management / Coordinación editorial: Cristina Ruiz Martín David Jesús Poza García Iván Velasco Jiménez Grupo INSISOC Universidad de Valladolid Escuela de Ingenierías Industriales, sede Paseo del Cauce C/ Paseo del Cauce 59 47011 Valladolid (Spain) Printed / Imprimido © Copyright, by the authors Legal Deposit/Depósito Legal: ISBN: 978-84-616-5410-9 Not authorized for further reproduction or distribution of any kind without prior permission from the authors. No está permitida la reproducción total o parcial, ni su tratamiento informático, ni la transmisión de ninguna forma o por cualquier medio, ya sea electrónico, fotocopia, registro u otro, sin permiso previo y por escrito de los autores.
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Foreword and Welcome It is our honour to present the Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering, XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización (CIO2013) and the XIX International Conference on Industrial engineering and Operations Management (ICIEOM). The CIO&ICIEOM 2013 is being organized by the INSISOC Group and the Industrial engineering School of the University of Valladolid. Following with the promotion of internationalization the Conference is the first joint event of ADINGOR (Asociación para el Desarrollo de la Ingeniería de Organización) and ABEPRO (Associaçâo Brasileira de Engenharia de Produçâo) the two main Spanish and Brazilian Scientific Societies in the field of Industrial and Management Engineering. The mission of the Conference is to promote links between researchers and practitioners from different branches to enhance an interdisciplinary perspective of industrial engineering and management. It is a forum to exchange ideas, academic and professional experiences to all branches of industries, information on the most recent and relevant research, theories and practices in Industrial Engineering, Management and Operations. The motto of the Conference “Managing Complexity: Challenges for Industrial and Operations Management” underlies the fact that in an open and global world, to handle complexity, cooperation is needed. We want to thanks the support given by the Cátedra Michelin of Industrial Organization and the Industrial Engineering School of the University of Valladolid. We also send our recognition to the keynote speakers for sharing with us their wisdom and experience and to the authors that sent their work for revision. Last but no least we gratefully acknowledge the hard and generous effort of those that took part in the peer-review process to maintain the high scientific level of the Conference series. And of course we do not forget the backstage work of the Scientific and Organizing Committees. We hope that the Conference will meet your expectations and will strength your professional and personal relations. We invite you to enjoy Valladolid, a name full of historical significance for the Spanish, Portuguese and Brazilian citizens, since the signing of the “Tordesillas Treatry” back in 1494. Best wishes, Valladolid, July 2013 Cesáreo Hernández Iglesias Chair of the Conference José M. Pérez Ríos Chair of the Scientific Committee i
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Organizing Committee Chair: Cesáreo Hernández Iglesias, Universidad de Valladolid Vice-chair: Adolfo López Paredes, Universidad de Valladolid Support crew: Fernando Acebes Senovilla, Universidad de Valladolid Alberto Araúzo Araúzo, Universidad de Valladolid Aldora Gabriela Gomes Fernandes, Universidad de Valladolid Mónica Iglesias Sanzo, Universidad de Valladolid Javier Pajares Gutiérrez, Universidad de Valladolid José M. Pérez Ríos, Universidad de Valladolid Marta Posada Calvo, Universidad de Valladolid David J. Poza García, Universidad de Valladolid Mario Ramírez Ferrero, Universidad de Valladolid Cristina Ruiz Martín, Universidad de Valladolid Pablo Sánchez Mayoral, Universidad de Valladolid Iván Velasco Jiménez, Universidad de Valladolid Félix A. Villafáñez Cardeñoso, Universidad de Valladolid Secretariat: Natividad Cabreros Martínez, Universidad de Valladolid Webmaster: Félix A. Villafáñez Cardeñoso, Universidad de Valladolid iii
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Scientific Committee Chair: José M. Pérez Ríos, Universidad de Valladolid, Spain Vice-chair: Francisco Soares Másculo, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, Brazil. Members: Segismundo S. Izquierdo Millán, Universidad de Burgos, Spain Jose M. Galán Ordax, Universidad de Burgos, Spain Angel Gento Municio, Universidad de Valladolid, Spain Jesús Gutiérrez Cillán, Universidad de Valladolid, Spain Juan Hernanagómez Barahona, Universidad de Valladolid, Spain Adolfo López Paredes, Universidad de Valladolid, Spain Miguel Ángel Manzanedo del Campo, Universidad de Burgos, Spain Natalia Martin Cruz, Universidad de Valladolid, Spain Gianni Mummolo, Politecnico di Bari, Italy Javier Pajares Gutiérrez, Universidad de Valladolid, Spain Marta Posada Calvo, Universidad de Valladolid, Spain Heitor M. Quintela Unisys, Brazil Alfonso Redondo Castán, Universidad de Valladolid, Spain Ana Isabel Rodríguez Escudero, Universidad de Valladolid, Spain Lourdes Saiz Bárcena, Universidad de Burgos, Spain José Ignacio Santos Martín, Universidad de Burgos, Spain Luis Felipe Scavarda, PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Markus Schwaninger, Univ. of St.Gallen, Institute of Management, Switzerland Tom Taylor, President of Association for Project Management (APM), UK Milton Vieira Junior, UNINOVE, Brazil Referees: María del Mar Eva Alemany Díaz Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain Rui Manuel Alves Silva Sousa DPS - UMINHO, Portugal Dilanthi Amaratunga University of Salford, UK Antonio Andrade Dias President of APOGEP, Portugal Carlos Andrés Romano Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain Madalena Araújo DPS - UMINHO, Portugal José Dinis Araújo Carvalho DPS - UMINHO, Portugal Eugenia Babiloni Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain Bopaya Bidanda University of Pittsburgh, USA Andrés Boza García Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain v
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Agostino Bruzzone University of Genova, Italy Luis Camarinha Matos Uninova, Portugal Francisco Campuzano Bolarín Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Spain Manuel Cardós Carboneras Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain Javier Carrasco Arias Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain Vagner Cavenaghi UNESP - Bauru, Brazil Juan Gabriel Cegarra Navarro Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Spain Ernesto Cilleruelo E.T.S. de Ingeniería de Bilbao, Spain José A. Comesaña Benavides Universidad de Vigo, Spain Ramón Companys Pascual Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain Albert Corominas Subias Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain Pablo Cortés Achedad Universidad de Sevilla, Spain Anna M. Coves Moreno Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain José Crespo de Carvalho ISCTE, Portugal Virgilio Cruz Machado Uninova, Portugal Lluís Cuatrecasas Arbós Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain Llanos Cuenca Gonzalez Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain Ricardo Chalmeta Rosaleñ Universidad Jaume I, Spain Jens J. Dahlgaard Linköping University, Sweden Valério de Carvalho DPS - UMINHO, Portugal María Victoria De la Fuente Aragón Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Spain David Alfonso De la Fuente García Universidad de Oviedo (EPI GIJON), Spain Carmen De Nieves Nieto Centro Universitario de la Defensa (CUD), Spain Ricardo Del Olmo Martínez Universidad de Burgos, Spain Pablo Díaz de Basurto Uraga Universidad del País Vasco, Spain Silvio do Carmo Silva DPS - UMINHO, Portugal Alfonso Durán Heras Universidad Carlos III, Spain Enda Enda Fallon NUI, Ireland Ander Errasti Opacua Centro de Estudios e Inv. Técnicas de Guipúzcoa, Spain Sofía Estellés Miguel Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain Vicenç Fernández Alarcón Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain Arturo José Fernández González Universidad de Vigo, Spain Isabel Fernández Quesada Universidad de Oviedo, Spain Paulo Ferrão Director do MIT Portugal, IST-Portugal Adriana Ferreira de Faria UFV, Brazil Rui Francisco M. Marçal PUC-PR, Brazil Jose M. Galán Ordax Universidad de Burgos, Spain Jesús García Arca Universidad de Vigo, Spain José Pedro García-Sabater Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain Angel Gento Municio Universidad de Valladolid, Spain Sergio Eduardo Gouvea da Costa PUC-PR, Brazil Gonzalo Grau Gadea Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain Gil Gutiérrez Casas Universidad Carlos III, Spain vi
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Jesús Gutiérrez Cillán Universidad de Valladolid, Spain Cesáreo Hernández Iglesias Universidad de Valladolid, Spain Antonio Hidalgo Nuchera Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain Eloy Hontoria Hernández Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Spain M. Carmen Jaca García Universidad de Navarra, Spain Segismundo S. Izquierdo Millán Universidad de Burgos, Spain Tomasz Janowsky UNU-IIST, Macau Kalle Kähkönen Tampere University of Technology, Finland Franz-Josef Kahlen University of Cape Town, South Africa Katja Klingebiel Technische-Universität Dortmund, Germany Francisco Cruz Lario Esteban Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain Gilson Lima Universidad Federal Fluminense, Brazil Rui M. Lima DPS - UMINHO, Portugal Adolfo López Paredes Universidad de Valladolid, Spain Amaia Lusa García Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain Julient Maheut Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain Anna-Bella Manalang De La Salle University (DLSU), Philippines Miguel Ángel Manzanedo del Campo Universidad de Burgos, Spain Juan A. Marin-Garcia Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain Natalia Martin Cruz Universidad de Valladolid, Spain Eva Martínez Caro Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Spain Carme Martínez Costa Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain Francisco Soares Másculo Universidade Federal da Paraíba, Brazil Manel Mateo Doll Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain Ana María Mejías Sacaluga Universidad de Vigo, Spain Pedro Mondelo Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain Josefa Mula Bru Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain Gianni Mummolo Politecnico di Bari, Italy Jesús Muñuzuri Sanz Universidad de Sevilla, Spain Luis Onieva Giménez Universidad de Sevilla, Spain Ángel Ortiz Bas Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain Sergio Palomero Ródenas Universidad Jaume I, Spain Javier Pajares Gutiérrez Universidad de Valladolid, Spain Juan E. Pardo Froján Universidad de Vigo, Spain Edson Pinheiro de Lima PUC-PR, Brazil Raúl Poler Escoto Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain Eva Ponce Cueto Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain Marta Posada Calvo Universidad de Valladolid, Spain José Carlos Prado Prado Universidad de Vigo, Spain Bernardo Prida Romero Universidad Carlos III, Spain Goran Putnik DPS - UMINHO, Portugal Heitor M. Quintela Unisys, Brazil Shahin Rahimifard Loughborough University, UK vii
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Alfonso Redondo Castán Universidad de Valladolid, Spain Imma Ribas Vila Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain Ana Isabel Rodríguez Escudero Universidad de Valladolid, Spain Carlos Rodriguez Monroy Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain Luiz Felipe Roriz R. Scavarda do Carmo PUC-RIO, Brazil Diego Ros McDonnell Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Spain Lorenzo Ros McDonnell Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Spain Patxi Ruiz de Arbulo López Universidad del País Vasco / EHU, Spain Rui Manuel Sá Pereira Lima DPS - UMINHO, Portugal Rashed Sahraeian Shahed University, Tehran, Iran Lourdes Saiz Bárcena Universidad de Burgos, Spain Javier Santos Universidad de Navarra, Spain José Ignacio Santos Martín Universidad de Burgos, Spain Luis Felipe Scavarda PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Markus Schwaninger Univ. of St.Gallen, Institute of Management, Switzerland M. Val Segarra Oña Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain Pep Simó Guzmán Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain Rui Sousa Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Portugal Ana Suárez Sánchez Universidad de Oviedo, Spain Gursel A. Suer Russ College of Eng. & Technology, Ohio University, USA Josu Takala University of Vaasa, Finnland Tom Taylor President of Association for Project Management (APM), UK Senhorinha Teixeira DPS - UMINHO, Portugal Guilherme L. R. Vaccaro UNISONOS, Brazil Jaume Valls Pasola Universidad de Barcelona, Spain Ton van der Wiele Erasmus University, The Netherlands Mario Vanhoucke Ghent University, Belgium María José Verdecho Sáez Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain Eduardo Vicens Salort Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain Milton Vieira Junior UNINOVE, Brazil viii
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Proceedings Index English Tracks ..................................................................................................... 13 EN-01 Strategy and Entrepreneurship .............................................................. 15 A Valuation of SAREB, the Spanish “Bad Bank”, Upside Using the Real Options Methodology .......................................................................................... 17 Roux Martínez F, Ruiz López F, Eguren S Corporate Entrepreneurship: Types and Determinant Factors. A Case Study Based Analysis of Technology Based and R+D Active Companies. ................ 25 Onaindia E, Goyogana U, Ochoa Laburu C The impact of innovation management techniques on radical innovation: An empirical study .................................................................................................... 33 Igartua J.I, Errasti N, Ganzarain J An Empirical Analysis of the Spanish Gas Price Structure ............................. 42 Cansado P, Rodríguez Monroy C Capabilities Generation Mechanisms in Alliances. Case Based Analysis ....... 50 Morcillo Bellido J, Duran Heras A Best Practices in Sustainable Supply Chain Management: A Literature Review .................................................................................................................. 59 Mejías A.M, Pardo J.E State of the Art of Challenges on International Operations Management for SMEs..................................................................................................................... 67 Martínez S, Mediavilla M, Errasti A, Santos J, Mula J Economic and Financial Profile of High-Growth Firms vs. Normal Firms from New Industry in the Basque Country: a Discriminant Analysis ............ 76 Ruiz de Arbulo P, Landeta B, Basañez A, Insunza G, Gonzalez X High-growth Firms: Qualitative Analysis Via Case Study .............................. 85 Insunza Aranzeta G, Basañez Llantada A, Ruiz de Arbulo López P, Landeta Manzano B, González Laskibar X 1
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Analysis and Characterisation of the High-growth Firm in the Basque Country ................................................................................................................ 94 Gonzalez X , Ruiz de Arbulo P, Landeta B, Basañez A, Insunza G The Delphi Method Applied for Validates the Regional Innovation Model. Case Study Applied in Central Region Romania. ........................................... 102 Moica S, Ganzarain J Regional Strategic Development Method as a Tool for the Emergence of New Industries at Regional Level ............................................................................. 111 Ganzarain J, Igartua J.I , Markuerkiaga L Costing a Product by Old and New Techniques: Different Wines for Different Occasions ............................................................................................................ 120 Ruiz de Arbulo López, P, Fortuny-Santos, J, Vintró-Sánchez, C An Electric Taxi Fleet Charging System Using Second Life Electric car Batteries Simulation and Economical Approach ............................................ 129 Canals Casals Ll, Amante B Decision Tool Based on Cloud Computing Technology ................................. 137 Zabalza-Vivanco J, Rio-Belver R, Cilleruelo E, Acera-Osa F.J, Garechana G Productivity in Knowledge Worker Teams ..................................................... 146 Moreno A, Varanki H, Mahou A. Return of Equity Issues in the Spanish Stock Market from the Investor’s Perspective, during the 1997-2012 Period ....................................................... 154 Parreño J, Ruiz F, Roux F Sustainable Balanced Scorecard: Practical Application to a Services Company ............................................................................................................ 163 Redondo A, Pascual J.A, Gento A, Muñoz J Applying Cluster Analysis to Renewable Energy Emergent Sector at Local Level ................................................................................................................... 172 Larruscain J, Río-Belver R, Cilleruelo E, Garechana G, Gavilanes-Trapote J Application of Reverse Innovation in SMEs ................................................... 180 Garcia Miranda I, Duran Heras A, Giraldo Casado E Analysis of the Electric Car Via Patents ......................................................... 189 Fernandez de la Bastida E, Gavilanes-Trapote J, Río-Belver R, Cilleruelo E, Larruscain J 2
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Quality in a Small Service Organization and its Relation with Sand Cone Model .................................................................................................................. 197 Braga C, Migowski S, Libânio C, Spindler G, Duarte F CBA and CEA Analysis on Occupational Safety and Health. A New Proposal for Investment Decisions ................................................................................... 209 Cuervo MA New Technologies and Entrepreneurial Intention .......................................... 221 Martin-Cruz N, Rodriguez-Escudero AI EN-02 OR, Modelling and Simulation ............................................................. 233 Toward Various Exact Modeling the Job Shop Scheduling Problem for Minimizing Total Weighted Tardiness ............................................................ 235 Namakshenas M , Sahraeian R Two Simple Constructive Algorithms for the Distributed Assembly Permutation Flowshop Scheduling Problem ................................................... 245 Hatami S, Ruiz R, Andrés Romano C Set-up Continuity in Tactical Planning of Semi-continuous Industrial Processes ............................................................................................................. 253 Pérez D, Alemany M.M.E, Lario F.C , Fuertes V.S Literature Review of Master Planning Models with Lack of Homogeneity in the Product Characteristics under Uncertainty Context ............................... 262 Mundi I, Alemany M.M.E, Poler R, Fuertes V.S A MILP Model for the Scheduling of Non-continuous Serial Multi-product Multi-stage Batch Processes with Non-identical Machines. ........................... 271 Latorre F, García-Sánchez A, Méndez C, Aguirre A, Ortega-Mier M NTIGen: a Software for Generating Nissan Based Instances for Time and Space Assembly Line Balancing ....................................................................... 281 Chica M, Cordón O, Damas S, Bautista J Agent-based Modelling and Archaeological Complexity ............................... 289 Poza D, del Olmo R Optimizing Stochastic Supply Chains via Simulation: What is an Appropriate Simulation Run Length? ................................................................................... 297 Arreola-Risa A, Fortuny-Santos J, Vintró-Sánchez C 3
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Localization Based on Business Interactions through a Simulated Annealing Algorithm ........................................................................................................... 306 Sánchez R.M, Galán J.M, Santos J.I Applications of the Lagrangian Relaxation Method to Operations Scheduling315 Laviós-Villahoz J.J ,Arauzo J.A, del-Olmo-Mártinez R, Manzanedo-del-Campo M.A, Methodology for the Strategic Capacity Planning in Universities ................ 324 de la Torre R, Lusa A, Mateo M A MILP Event Based Formulation for a Real-world Multimode RCSP with Generalized Temporal Constraints.................................................................. 332 Borreguero T, García A, Ortega M A Model of Makespan Flow-shop Scheduling under Ergonomic Requirements ..................................................................................................... 341 Asensio-Cuesta S, Gomez-Gasquet, P, Andrés C, Alemany M.M.E Solving the Car Resequencing Problem with Mix Banks .............................. 354 Valero-Herrero M, Garcia-Sabater J.P , Vidal-Carreras P, Canos-Daros L Gaia Analysis and Design of a Multi-agent-based Shop Floor Control System363 Arauzo J.A, del-Olmo-Mártinez R, Labiós-Villahoz J.J Estimating Costs in the EOQ Formula ............................................................ 372 Vidal-Carreras P.I, Garcia-Sabater J.P, Valero-Herrero M, Santandreu-Mascarell C Integrated Production and Simulation Scheduling Tool to Solve the Mix Model Assembly Line Problem Considering Heijunka and Operational Constraints: a Case Study ................................................................................ 381 Maheut J, Garcia-Sabater J.P, Garcia-Sabater J.J Electrical Markets and Agent-Based Computational Economics: a Critical Review of the Last Two Decades of Researching ............................................ 389 Ferrero R The Inventory Routing Problem for the Mixed Car Model Assembly Line. 398 Pulido R, García-Sánchez A, Ortega-Mier M EN-03 Logistics, Production and Information Systems ................................. 407 4
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Solving the Mixed Model Sequencing Problem with Workload Minimization with Product Mix Preservation ........................................................................ 409 Bautista J, Cano A, Alfaro R, Batalla C Enhanced Supply Chain Management Using SCOR and BPM. Application to the Spanish Road Transport SME. .................................................................. 418 Franconetti P, Ortiz A Incorporating the Work Pace Concept into the MMSP-W ............................ 427 Bautista J, Alfaro R, Batalla C, Cano A Impact of Ergonomic Risk Reduction in the TSALBP-1 ................................ 436 Bautista J, Batalla C, Alfaro R, Cano A Order Promising Process for Supply Chains with Lack of Homogeneity in the Product ............................................................................................................... 445 Alemany MME, Boza A, Ortiz A, Poler R Modeling the Master Plan for Supply Chains with Lack of Homogeneity in the Products ....................................................................................................... 454 Alemany MME, Cuenca L, Ortiz A, Pérez D A Design Framework for Flexible Automated Warehouses .......................... 463 Marín L.F., Carrasco-Gallego R Supplier Evaluation and Selection: a Review of the Literature since 2007 .. 472 Moliné JI, Coves AM A “Collaborative Me” Crossroad: Individual Beliefs and the Adoption of Corporate Blogs ................................................................................................. 481 Fernández-Cardador P, Hernández-García A, Iglesias-Pradas S Improving the Distribution Process in a Meat Company .............................. 490 Pérez I,Ulabarry L. E, Moreno K,Parra C A New Constructive Heuristic for the Fm|Block|∑T ...................................... 500 Companys R, Ribas I A Roadmap to Establish Collaboration among SMEs belonging to NonHierarchical Networks ...................................................................................... 508 Andres B, Poler R 5
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Measures to Diagnose the Power Balance in a Non-hierarchical Manufacturing Network ................................................................................... 517 Andres B, Poler R New Tool for Aiding Warehouse Design Process ............................................ 526 Chackelson C, Errasti A, Santos J Calculation of the Approaches to CSL in Continuous Review Policy (s,Q) from an Analogy of a Periodic Review Policy (R,S). ...................................... 534 Estelles-Miguel S, Albarracin J.M, Cardós M, Guijarro E. Determining the Order-up-to-level Using the Normal Approximation in a Discrete Context ................................................................................................ 543 Guijarro E, Babiloni E, Cardós M, Palmer M On the Selection of Customer Service Metrics in Inventory Control ........... 551 Guijarro E, Babiloni E, Cardós M, Estellés S Analysing the Purchase Intention of Spanish Consumer: A Study about Remanufactured Products ................................................................................ 560 Jiménez-Parra B, Rubio S, Vicente-Molina M A Non Parametric Estimation of the Cycle Service Level of a Periodic Review Policy in a Discrete Context .............................................................................. 568 Cardós M, Babiloni E, Estellés S, Guijarro E Proposal of a Classification of the Different Data Models to Manage Materials in Industry ........................................................................................ 576 Maheut J, Garcia-Sabater JP, Marin-Garcia JA Packaging Logistics. A Case Study in Dairy Sector ....................................... 585 García Arca J, Prado Prado JC, González-Portela Garrido A.T Inter Enterprise Framework for Hierarchical Decisions ............................... 594 Vargas A, Boza A, Cuenca L, Ortiz A Enterprise Resilience Assessment: A Categorisation Framework of Disruptions ......................................................................................................... 603 Sanchis R, Poler R Trajectory Analysis of the Valencian Automobile Industry Implementing Lean Management ............................................................................................. 611 Valero-Herrero M, Marin-Garcia J , Garcia-Sabater J, Vidal-Carreras P 6
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Long Term Capacity Planning with Products’ Renewal ............................... 620 Yilmaz G, Lusa A, Benedito E Multiagent Model for Supply Chain Management ......................................... 630 Ponte B, Pino R, Fernández I, García N, Monterrey M Revisiting the SEC Classification Framework in Traditional and Electronic Commerce .......................................................................................................... 639 Agudo-Peregrina AF, Chaparro-Peláez J, Pascual-Miguel FJ Utilization of Tool Value Stream Mapping (VSM) for Improvement of Welded Assembly Manufacturing Process ...................................................... 647 Guimarães G, Muller M, Taffarel L, Lash M, Bechert T Logistic Management in a Fresh Food Firm: A Case Study .......................... 655 García Márquez F.P, Peña García-Pardo I, Trapero Arenas J.R City Logistics: Are Sustainability Policies Really Sustainable? .................... 665 Grosso R, Muñuzuri J, Cortes P, Carrillo J A Model for Coordination of Production Planning, Forward and Reverse Logistics Management in a Multi-product and Multi-plant Environment, with Reusable Bottles Constraints ................................................................... 674 Parra Peña J, Vicens-Salort E, Ortiz Bas A Neural Network Application for Risk Factors Estimation in Manufacturing Accidents. ........................................................................................................... 683 Carrillo JA, Guadix J, Grosso R, Onieva L EN-04 Quality and Product Management ....................................................... 691 Information Capability in Basque Country Quality Award Winners .......... 693 Zárraga-Rodríguez M, Álvarez MJ Market Oriented New Product Development Process: a Case Study ........... 702 Nunes M, Afonso P The Logical Framework Approach and Worker Commitment .................... 720 Paipa-Galeano L, Jaca C, Viles E, Mateo R, Santos J How to Choose the Best Order when Implanting HIWP in Operations Area728 Marin-Garcia JA, Perello-Marin MªR, Canos-Daros L, Valero-Herrero M 7
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. EN-05 Knowledge and Project Management .................................................. 737 Competitive Intelligence Practices in Microenterprises and SMEs from the Industrial Sector: the Case of Basque Country .............................................. 739 Aldasoro J C, Cantonnet M L, Cilleruelo E Web 2.0 as a Key Tool for Sharing Knowledge in Basque Country SMEs .. 747 Alvarez Meaza I, Cilleruelo Carrasco E, Zamanillo Elguezabal I Predisposition of Workers to Share Knowledge: an Empirical Study .......... 755 Sáiz L, Díez J I, Manzanedo, M A, Del Olmo, R User Software and Information Systems in Engineering Project Management763 Arias J, Rubio R, Solana J Application of Public Private Partnerships to the Spanish Airport System 772 Coello N, Rodríguez Monroy C, Calvo F Towards Strategic Project Management ......................................................... 780 Hermano V, Martín-Cruz N. Analysis of Common Maturity Models Applied to Project Management .... 788 Montero G Patterns in Innovative Companies in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) ....................... 795 Canós-Darós L, Santandreu-Mascarell C, Marin-Garcia JA, García-Sabater JJ How Organizational Cybernetics Can Help to Organize Debates on Complex Issues................................................................................................................... 803 Pérez Ríos J, Velasco Jiménez I, Sánchez Mayoral P The M.A.G. Factor. Management, Administration and Guidance. Where and How Much MAG Does Each Project Deserve and Need? A New, Original Assessment and Scoring System ....................................................................... 813 Taylor T EN-06 Service Systems ...................................................................................... 823 Tourism Destination Web Monitor: A Technological Platform for the Acquisition of Tourist Information through the Web Presence of the DMOs825 Rebon F, Gerrikagoiti J.K, Ochoa Laburu C 8
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Methodology for Analysis and Decision Making by Sampling in Buildings. 833 Aparicio P, Guadix J, Onieva L, Escudero A E-Government Interoperability Frameworks: Administration to Business. 842 Andres B, Poler R Economic Performance and Financial Profitability: Two Study Cases in F&B Industry .............................................................................................................. 851 Santandreu-Mascarell C, Canós-Darós L, Vidal-Carreras PI, Valero-Herrero M Appropriate Work Design in Lean Production Systems ................................ 858 Dombrowski U, Hellmich E-M., Mielke T. Model of a Public Private Partnership in the Spanish Health Context ........ 867 Pérez J Complex Networks Applied to Communication Management in Emergency Crisis ................................................................................................................... 876 Ruiz Martín C, Ramírez Ferrero M, González Álvarez J.L, Poza D EN-07 Education................................................................................................ 885 Applying the LEGOstics Concept in Formal Education at Technical University of Cartagena .................................................................................... 887 Bojan P, de la Fuente Aragón MV, Ros McDonnell L Teaching Operation Management with GeoGebra. An example of Make-tostock Problem Solving ....................................................................................... 895 Calona Z, Santos J, Arcelus M Factors Involved in the University-industry Collaboration; a Final YearProject Approach ...................................................................................... 903 Errasti N, Ganzarain J, Markuerkiaga L, Martinez de Zuazo M How to Assess the Innovation Competency of Higher Education Students . 912 Marin-Garcia JA , Perez-Peñalver MªJ, Vidal-Carreras PI, Maheut J Using Rubrics for Monitoring and Evaluating Degree Projects in Industrial Management Engineering ................................................................................. 921 Barbera-Ribera T, Estelles-Miguel S, Dema Perez C.M, Garrigos-Simon F.J. Spanish Tracks .................................................................................................. 931 9
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. SP-01 Estrategia y Entrepreneurship .............................................................. 933 La Satisfacción de Clientes como Estrategia de Marketing para la Venta... 935 Dalongaro R.C, Froemming L.M.S La Importancia de las Innovaciones No Tecnológicas en las Empresas Españolas ........................................................................................................... 943 Larrea Unzain A, Aldasoro Alustiza J.C, Cantonnet Jordi Mª L Open E-Government y Cambios Organizativos en las Administraciones Públicas Españolas ............................................................................................ 951 Martínez Núñez M , Pérez Aguiar WS, Martin-Fernandez L Análisis de Buenas Prácticas en Transferencia Tecnológica en el Sector TIC966 Artal A., Sanchez Granados A.M., Gil Garcia E. SP-02 Investigación Operativa, Modelado y Simulación ............................... 975 Comparativa de Heurísticas Multiobjetivo Voraces y Poblacionales Aplicadas a la Optimización Mono-objetivo en Entornos Industriales Flow Shop con Permutación ....................................................................................................... 977 Valledor P, Gómez A, Díaz D, Priore P, Rosillo R Estudio sobre el Efecto de la Complejidad e Incertidumbre en el ELSP ..... 986 Cortés R, García-Sabater J.P, Molina P SP-03 Logística, Producción y Sistemas de Información ............................... 997 Mejora del Sistema Productivo mediante Value Stream Mapping. Aplicación a una Empresa de Diseño .................................................................................. 999 De la Fuente MV, Alonso M, Hontoria E, Ros L Sistema Integrado de Planificación de la Producción y Distribución para la Gestión de Excepciones ................................................................................... 1007 Álvarez E, Villalón L, Osaba E, Díaz F Técnicas de Predicción Cuantitativas Aplicadas a la Cadena de Suministro. Un Caso de Estudio ......................................................................................... 1016 Trapero Arenas J.R , García Márquez F.P Decisiones en el Diseño de Redes de Logística Inversa: Propuesta de un Modelo de Decisión. ......................................................................................... 1025 Ribas I, Rubio S 10
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. La Mejora Dinámica del Rutado de Vehículos: Eventos de Reoptimización1034 Escudero A, Muñuzuri J, Cortés P, Aparicio P Sistemas de Ayuda a la Toma de Decisiones para la gestión de Incidencias1043 Valero R, Boza A, Vicens E Sistema de Control y Reprogramación de la Producción basado en Captura Inalámbrica de Datos en Planta ..................................................................... 1050 Eguizábal L, Lago A, Fernández A Planificación y Control de la Producción en la Mejora del Proceso de Producción de Fabricación de Juegos Mesas: un Estudio de Caso ............. 1060 RaposoJ, Costa-de MatosAN, NunesA SP-04 Calidad y Gestión del Producto ........................................................... 1069 Las Empresas de Servicios Energéticos (ESE) en España y su contribución al desarrollo de las Ciudades Inteligentes (Smart Cities) .................................. 1071 Morcillo Bellido J, Prida Romero B El Análisis del Ciclo de Vida en España. Temas de Investigación Principales y Agentes Clave ................................................................................................... 1080 Basañez Llantada A, Martínez de Alegría Mancisidor I, Insunza Aranzeta G, González Laskibar X Un Sistema Integrado de Gestión como Elemento de Mejora Competitiva 1089 Fortea E, Mikeo I Modelo para la Implementación de Sistemas de Gestión Preventivos en Sectores Singulares .......................................................................................... 1097 Solano Martos J, Maeso González E SP-05 Gestión del Conocimiento y de Proyectos ........................................... 1107 Estimación de la Evolución de Proyectos en el Ámbito de la Producción Industrial mediante la Parametrización de la Curva S del Coste Acumulado1109 García Escribano E Aprendizaje Organizacional: Estudio de Caso Sector Turismo de Ciudad Guayana, Venezuela ........................................................................................ 1118 D’Armas M, Arzola M 11
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Gestión de la Innovación y el Papel de las TIC: El caso de SILK ............... 1128 Planuch Prats C, Salvador Vallès R La Intragestion Financiera a través de las TIC Basada en la Auditoria de Orden del Sector Universitario Venezolano .................................................. 1137 Guaido Suarez D SP-06 Sistemas de Servicios ............................................................................ 1143 La Calidad de E-Servicio en Portales Web B2C: Evaluación Mediante Sistemas de Inferencia Borrosos .................................................................... 1145 Castro A, Puente J, de la Fuente D, Parreño J, Lozano J SP-07 Educación .............................................................................................. 1155 Tendencias y Aseguramiento de la Calidad en la Educación Superior: Mapa Europeo y Caso de España ............................................................................. 1157 Gonzalez Lasquibar X, Ruiz de Arbulo López P, Landeta Manzano B, Basañez Llantada A, Insunza Araceta G Satisfacción en la Utilización del Video por el Discente en su Proceso Activo de Aprendizaje. Una Experiencia en el Contexto de los Grados en Ingeniería de Telecomunicación. ...................................................................................... 1167 Pérez-Aguiar W, Martínez-Núñez M Aplicación de la Tecnología BPMS en la Gestión de los Procesos Relacionados con la Actividad Docente en un Centro Universitario .................................. 1178 Pardo JE , Mejías AM 12
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. English Tracks 13
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. EN-01 Strategy and Entrepreneurship 15
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. A Valuation of SAREB, the Spanish “Bad Bank”, Upside Using the Real Options Methodology Roux Martínez F1, Ruiz López F2, Eguren S3 Abstract This paper develops a model to analyze the upside potential of profitability of the SAREB (“Asset Management Company for Assets Arising from Bank Restructuring”), the Spanish “Bad Bank”. The model is based in the Real Options methodology, that is especially adequate due to the convergence of two elements, (i) depreciated assets with a high upside potential, and (ii) a highly volatile market as it has shown to be the real estate Spanish market. Our results suggest that the SAREB has a higher than expected profitability potential that would be dedicated to increase the return to its shareholders, mainly private banks. Consequently we also show that after the financial crisis are emerging two types of banks in Spain, in one hand the losers who are transferring their real estate assets at a deep discount, and in the other hand the winners, capturing the upside potential of those assets as shareholders of SAREB, and consequently consolidating their strength in the Spanish Real Estate Industry. It is worth to mention that Governments should make an effort in properly redistribute the wealth generated by the real Estate industry. Keywords: Bad Bank, Real Options, Valuation, Financial Crisis, Real Estate. 1Félix Roux Martinez ( e-mail: froux@etsii.upm.es) Dpto. de Administración de Empresas. Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. c/ José Gutiérrez Abascal, 2. 28006 . Madrid 2Félipe Ruiz López ( e-mail: feliperuizlopez@gmail.com) Dpto. de Administración de Empresas. Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. c/ José Gutiérrez Abascal, 2. 28006 . Madrid 3Santos Eguren ( e-mail: santos.eguren@upm.es) Dpto. de Administración de Empresas. Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. c/ José Gutiérrez Abascal, 2. 28006 . Madrid 17
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. 1 SAREB Overview and Background 1.1 Legal Structure On 25 June 2012, Spain requested the Eurogroup financial assistance to recapitalize the Spanish banking industry. In accordance with this request, the Spanish Administration created the SAREB to segregate impaired financial assets “toxic assets” of those credit institutions receiving public funding. The legal structure of the SAREB was defined in RDL 24/2012, now passed as law 9/2012. The SAREB will be incorporated for a maximum period of 15 years, and initially as a Public Limited Company (Spanish “Sociedad Anónima”). The purpose of the SAREB is the holding, management, acquisition and disposal of assets to be transferred to it by credit institutions receiving public support. These institutions receive debt securities issued by the SAREB with a State guarantee as payment for the assets transferred. (European Central Bank, 2012) In a second phase starting by 2013, the SAREB eventually will set up a number of funds and a management company, to create and finance portfolios of assets in response to specific investor demand. 1.2 Funding Required, Capital Structure and Cost of Capital. SAREB shareholders are mixed, Public and Private, Public ownership may not exceed 50% (BOE, Ley 9/2012) to prevent SAREB debt to consolidate as public debt increasing the total amount of Spanish debt outstanding. In any case the State guaranteed debt of the SAREB should increase the overall risk of the Spanish debt. The equity mix is expected to be in the range of 45% Public vs. 55% Private. Although when facing a banking crisis regulators are forced to improvise (Aghion P et al, 1999) this private majority, could generate a conflict of interest (ECB, 2012) because private shareholders are banks and financial institutions that also have significant interests in the Spanish real estate industry, as shown in Table1. The total amount of assets to be transferred initially in December 2012 to SAREB will include those of; BFA-Bankia (22,318 million €), Catalunya Bank (6,708 million €), Novagalicia and Banco Gallego (5,097 million €) and Banco de Valencia (1,964 million €), in total 37.110 million € (El País, 2012) The transfer of additional assets of other banks, such as Caja España-Duero, Liberbank, and BMN, will start in 2013 and will require further capital by current or new shareholders, but as stipulated in Law 9/2012 the total amount of assets of SAREB will never exceed 90.000 million Euros. 18
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Table 1 SAREB ownership as at 28 December 2012 Institution Capital (million €) Stake (%) Private Stake1 2,114 55% Direct funds 524 14% Subordinated Debt 1,590 42% Public Stake 1,705 45% Direct funds 432 11% Subordinated Debt 1,273 33% Total Equity 3,819 100% 1 Private shareholders include; Banco Santander, CaixaBank, Sabadel Popular, Bankinter, Cajamar, Banca March, Deutsche Bank, CCS, Mutua Madrileña, Catalana Occidente, Asisa y Mutua Pelayo. Source: Expansion, 2012. Taking into account these numbers we can build an illustrative balance sheet of SAREB, as shown in Figure 1, it shows that when matching the total amount of assets transferred with the sources of funds, it can be seen at a glance that 91% of funds comes from state guaranteed debt and only 9% is equity. Assets (million Eur). Liabilities (million Eur). From Novacaixa and Banco G. 6,122 M€ From Catalunya Caixa 6,708 M€ Bonds issued by SAREB State Guaranteed 37,110 M€ DEBT 91% From Bankia BFA 22,318 M€ Initial Cash and equivalents Shareholders 3,818 M€ Public S hareholer (FROB); 45% of equity, 1,705 M€ Private S hareholers (Banks); 55% of equity, 2,114M€ EQUITY (*) 9% From B.Valencia 1,962 M€ (*) Equity icludes shareholders funds and subordinated debt Fig. 1 Illustrative Balance Sheet of SAREB by December 2012 This high proportion of debt will have a very low cost because is State Guaranteed, consequently leverages the stream of earnings to be paid to the equity, in fact borrowing at a fixed low rate is increases sharply the rate of return of the firm´s equity (Brealey Myers, 1996). The estimation of the minimum expected return on equity (ROE) according to the FROB (Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring) is at 14%. But more importantly any increase on profitability on the total volume of assets goes to the equity, mainly controlled by Private banks. 19
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. 1.3 Transfer Price of Real Estate Assets to SAREB The transfer prices have been determined by Banco de España, and were sharply adjusted, they are based on the exercise performed by Oliver Wyman, a consultancy firm, in 2012, as presented in table 2, and include additional discounts taking into account some costs of SAREB such as administration and financial costs. Table 2 Type of asset and haircut applied in the transfer price to SAREB according to FROB Asset Type Average haircut Asset Type Average haircut Loans1 45.6% Foreclosed assets2 63.1% 1 Loans include; loans on finished housing, land, projects, and other Real Estate assets. 2 Foreclosed assets include; new housing, developments in progress and land. As a consequence of the haircuts applied, the final price of the assets ranges between 54% and 37% of their initial book value, depending if they are loans on assets or physical real estate assets. 2 The Real Options Approach 2.1 Advantages of the Methodology An increasing number of academics and corporate practitioners defend that traditional discounted-cash –flow (DCF) approaches such as the standard net-presentvalue (NPV) rule, cannot properly capture management´s flexibility to adapt and revise decisions in response to unexpected market developments (Trigeorgis, 1996). DCF approaches build “expected scenarios” based on assumptions. But they are not able to capture the management´s flexibility to make decisions throughout the process changing the outcome of the project. Real Options methodology is based on the financial options theory to value derivatives, but instead of using a financial asset (e.g. a share) as underlying, uses a real asset (e.g. a physical asset or a project), its advantage is that allows to value investment decisions taking into account the flexibility to adapt to the changing market conditions and make decisions throughout the life of a project. An Option is conceived as a right but not an obligation to make a decision in a period of time. There are two kinds of options, “calls” and “puts”, a “call” option gives the right to buy an asset at a specified exercise price, and the “put” option gives the right to sell the asset at that exercise price. Both “calls” and “puts” can be “European”, if they must be exercised at a fixed date, or “American” if they can be exercised at any time before a final date. 20
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. 2.2 Numerical Methodology Application to Value the SAREB To value the SAREB we take into account its flexibility to adapt to market conditions, meaning that if Real Estate Market conditions improve it can gain the upside, and if they decline SAREB does not lose a lot because it can always sell all or part of its assets that are valued at a low price vs. the market. Consequently the assets of SAREB include an abandonment option, which is an American Put Option. To show the value of it, we build a base case and some sensitivities regarding (ii) the standard deviation, and (iii) the abandonment price. The valuation methodology applied is the simple discrete-time model presented by Cox, Ross and Rubinstein in their famous article published in the Journal of Financial Economics in 1979. As a starting point five variables must be defined: The underlying assets; are the Real Estate assets transferred from the affected banks. We take the value of the assets transferred until December 2012 amounting 37,110 million €. We assume that the haircut that they have suffered is 55%, a figure between 46% and 63% as presented in previous points, consequently their initial book value was 82,470 million €. We also treat the total amount of assets as a whole and its evolution in percentage in order to show in a simple manner the evolution of its value. Meaning that the 82,470 million € are 100% of the value before the haircut, and that 37,110 million € are 45% of the book value. One important element of the Real Options vs. Financial Options, is that the owner of a financial option can not affect the value of the underlying asset (e.g. a share of Telefónica), but the manager of a real asset can raise its value (Copeland Antikarov, 2003). Consequently the proper management SAREB assets have a lot to do with the final value extracted from them. The exercise price; the minimum price at which assets can be sold. Due to the haircut suffered by the assets transferred to SAREB it can be assumed that it is 37,110 million €. Time to expiration of the option; fifteen years, equal to the life of SAREB. It is worth to mention that this long life increases the value of the option because the probability of price increase of the Real Estate underlying assets is also higher. The standard deviation of the price of the underlying asset; is the standard deviation of the price of the Real Estate assets. This industry traditionally has shown higher volatility than the stock market, and it has grown sharply during the last years, as shown in Table 3. In the base case it is assumed a standard deviation of 40%, showing the higher than the IBEX 35 volatility of the industry. 5. The risk-free rate over the life of the option; we assume it is the rate of the Spanish Public Debt for an equivalent period of time of 15 years, of 6.5%. 21
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Table 3 Annual Standard deviation of Real State Spanish quoted companies, average of them and IBEX 35 as a reference Company Name, average and Index Standard Deviation σ (3 years period 2010 - 2012) Reyal Urbis 96% Colonial 69% Sacyr y Vallermoso 59% Realia 48% Average 68% IBEX 35 Source: La Caixa, December 2012 29% Once the variables are identified, an event tree showing the paths that could be followed by the value of the underlying asset is built, as shown in Figure 2. Year σ= 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 8157% 3665% Million € 82,467 2457% % 100% 1647% 1104% 740% Haircut 45,357 55,0% 496% 333% 223% 149% Value of the assets transferred Million € 37,110 15 18154% 12169% 40% 5468% Book Value 14 100% % 45% 67% 100% 45% 30% 20% 45% 20% 45% 20% 14% 9% 20% 14% 9% 6% 9% 4% 20% 9% 4% 3% 2% 9% 3% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 14% 9% 6% 4% 2% 1% 30% 20% 14% 6% 4% 67% 45% 30% 14% 6% 3% 45% 20% 149% 100% 67% 30% 14% 6% 100% 45% 333% 223% 149% 67% 30% 740% 496% 223% 100% 1647% 333% 149% 67% 30% 496% 223% 100% 2457% 1104% 740% 333% 149% 67% 30% 14% 223% 100% 45% 496% 3665% 1647% 1104% 740% 333% 149% 67% 30% 496% 223% 149% 67% 740% 333% 2457% 1647% 1104% 8157% 5468% 3665% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Fig. 2 Present Value event tree without abandonment option After building the event tree, the real option to abandon is computed at each node of the tree and calculated the present value of it. As shown in figure 3, the flexibility has added value, enhancing the project upside in case of Real State Price increases, and limiting the downside to a level close to the initial assets value. When taking into account the option to abandon, the value of the assets obtained reaches 47,090 million €, 9,980 million over the initial asset valuation of 37,110 million €, representing a 12%. 22
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 18154% 12169% 8157% 5468% 3665% 2457% 1647% 1104% 740% 496% 333% Value of assets transferred Including Real Option 225% 152% 105% Million € 47,090 % 57% 75% 57% 48% 224% 152% 105% 75% 47% 45% 47% 47% 45% 45% 45% 45% 46% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% Abandon 45% 45% 67% 52% 45% 45% 45% 149% 100% 71% 54% 45% 45% 333% 223% 149% 102% 72% 47% 45% 45% 150% 55% 45% 45% 45% % 12% 56% 740% 496% 333% 223% 103% 73% 1647% 1104% 740% 496% 333% 151% 104% 74% 56% 45% 45% Increase in Value Million € 9,980 152% Go 740% 223% 3665% 2457% 1647% 1104% 496% 333% 224% 104% 75% 57% 740% 496% 333% 3665% 2457% 1647% 1104% 8157% 5468% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% Fig. 3 Real Option calculation including per node option and decisions Finally a sensitivity analysis is done and presented in Table 4, showing that even the most conservative case; an additional haircut of 25% in the value of assets, and a low σ at 20%, well under the IBEX35 volatility, reaches a value of 38,018 million €, over the initial value of assets of 37,110 million €. Table 4 Sensitivity analysis Standard Deviation (σ) Initial Value 37,110 million € Additional haircut (-25%)1 20% 40,486 million € 38,018 million € 30% (close to IBEX35) 43,683 million € 40,141 million € 40% 47,090 million € (base case) 42,694 million € 50% 50,242 million € 45,214 million € 1 An additional haircut of 25% of the price would drive to an initial value of 27,833 million € On top of this valuation it is important to notice, that due to the high proportion of State Guaranteed debt on SAREB funds (91%) the upside on profitability will go directly to pay the equity, mainly controlled by private banks. In fact the European Central Bank on its opinion published on 14 December 2012 recommends to impose limitations on the payment of dividends to ensure the timely redemption of State guaranteed bonds, and that all cash held by the SAREB could be applied to the early repayment of the State bonds (BCE, 2012). 23
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. 3 Conclusions Since the SAREB bears a real option that generates significant upside potential, it should be taken into account. Our valuation of the upside is in the range of 10.000 million € (+12% on the value of Real Estate assets transferred). The high volume of State Guaranteed debt at a fixed low rate on SAREB funds causes that all the upside goes to the shareholders that are mainly private banks. This makes explicit that after the financial crisis are emerging two types of banks in Spain, in one hand the losers who are transferring their real estate assets at a deep discount, and in the other hand the winners, capturing the upside potential of those assets as shareholders of SAREB and consequently consolidating their strength in the Spanish Real Estate Industry. It is worth to mention that in this environment Governments should make a real and proportionate effort to redistribute the wealth generated by the Real Estate industry. 4 References Aghion, P., P. Bolton, and S. Fries (1999) Optimal Design of Bank Bailouts: The Case of Trasition Economies, Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, 155(1), 51-70 Brealey RA, Myers SC (1996) Principles of Corporate Finance. Fifth Edition, McGraw .Hill. International. Copeland T, Antikarov V (2000) Real Options, A practitioners guide. Cengage Learning, New York, New York Cox JC, Ross SA, Rubinstein M (1979) Option pricing: a simplified approach. Journal of Financial Economics 7: 229-263 ECB (European Central Bank), Opinion of the European Central Bank of 14 December 2012 on asset management companies (CON/2012/108). El País, 26 December 2012. “La banca nacionalizada traspasa al banco malo activos por valor de 37.110 millones”. Available via http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2012/12/26/actualidad/1356524351_995160.html El País, 28 December 2012. “Bancos y aseguradoras aportan 1.590 millones a la Sareb en deuda subordinada”. Available via http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2012/12/28/agencias/1356706298_756836.html Expansión, 13 December 2012. “Sareb negocia contrarreloj la entra da de Pimco y Fortress en el capital”. Available via. http://www.clipmedia.net/ficheros/2012/12_dic/sq270.pdf FROB Fondo de Restructuración Ordenada Bancaria (2012). Press Release 13 December 2012, Sareb increases capital to allow private investors to take a stake. Available via. http://www.frob.es/notas/20121213%20SAREB%20INGLES%20PROT.pdf Ley 9/2012, de 14 de noviembre, de reestructuración y resolución de entidades de crédito. Available via. http://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2012/11/15/pdfs/BOE-A-2012-14062.pdf Luehrman, Timothy A (1998) Investment Opportunities as Real Options: Getting started on the Numbers. Harvard Business Review 76: 51-67. Real Decreto-ley 24/2012, de 31 de agosto, de reestructuración y resolución de entidades de crédito. Available via. http://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2012/08/31/pdfs/BOE-A-2012-11247.pdf Trigeorgis, L (1996) Real Options Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation. The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts 24
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Corporate Entrepreneurship: Types and Determinant Factors. A Case Study Based Analysis of Technology Based and R+D Active Companies. Onaindia E1, Goyogana U2, Ochoa Laburu C3 Abstract Based on the integrative model proposed by Narayanan V, Yang Y, Zahra S (2009) as theoretical framework and using multiple case studies, we explore in this paper the characteristics of new business, activities or ventures; created by entrepreneurial companies and the cause-effect relationship of some “context agents”, such as: external factors (industry, technological change) and internal organizational factors (capital structure, top management commitment, competitive strategy, organizational structure, human resources management, use of public funds and policies). We have selected six technology-based companies with medium-high intensity in R+D, either small or medium-high companies, from very different industries, but all of them involved in Corporate Entrepreneurship. The preliminary results confirm the thesis pointed out in scientific literature: the implication of top management is critical, CE is a strategic issue with decisive influence for the survival of the company and the Intrapreneur has revealed to be a key agent. Nevertheless, there is a wide range of possible combinations of factors, mainly of internal ones, and their cause-effect relationships are very different. Keywords: Corporate Entrepreneurship, Internal and External Factors, Multiple Case Studies 1 Eneritz Onaindia Gerrikabeitia ( e-mail: eneritz.onaindia@ehu.es) Dpto. de Organización de Empresas. EUITI-Eibar. UPV-EHU Avda Otaola 29, 20600 Eibar. 2 Unai Goyogana Quesada ( e-mail: unai.goyogana@ehu.es) Dpto. Organización de Empresas, UPV – EHU. Escuela Politécnica. Universidad del País Vasco. Plaza de Europa 1, 20018 San Sebastián. 3 Carlos Ochoa Laburu ( e-mail: carlos.ochoa-laburu@ehu.es) Dpto. Organización de Empresas, UPV – EHU. Escuela Politécnica. Universidad del País Vasco. Plaza de Europa 1, 20018 San Sebastián. 25
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. 1 Introduction and Approach of the Project The interest in “business creation” (entrepreneurship) and its protagonists (entrepreneurs) is a classic issue in economic literature and, specifically in literature about management. This issue is specially recurrent and relevant in economic crisis times. But, despite all the generated literature there is still a wide field of study about the “type” of Corporate Entrepreneurship and “how” new ventures are developed, and specifically, about Internal Organizational Factors. A group of technology-based and active in R+D companies which have experience on Corporate Entrepreneurship is studied in this work. Consequently, classic questions about Entrepreneurial Orientation or about the results of that entrepreneurial activity are not proposed. The studied companies are proactive on entrepreneurship and obtain economical and not economical results from it. We question and attempt to analyze “what do technology-based and R+D investor entrepreneurial companies do? and how?” so that results can be translated to other companies. 2 Theoretical Models to Analyze Corporate Entrepreneurship We have selected the model by Narayanan, Yang and Zahra (2009) as a theoretical framework because it is focused on the “entrepreneuring company”, and specially because a section about “Characteristics of the new venture” is included:  Internally or externally developed. It means, creating a new company or a new activity line in the current company.  100% owned company or partnership as a major or minor shareholder.  Internal or external entrepreneur  Developed according to the strategy of the company or because of an opportunistic decision. The model by Narayanan, Yang and Zahra (2009) is proposed as a synthesis of the most relevant models: Guth-Ginsberg (1990), Covin-Slevin (1991) and Lumpkin-Dess (1996). A positive Entrepreneurial Orientation has a positive effect on the outcomes of the company, especially in the economic outcomes (profitability, sales increase and market share). The cause-effect relationship between them may be reversible. Good outcomes may favour Entrepreneurship. There is a set of External and Internal Factors/Agents of the company which determine the characteristics of the new activities and, by extension, their outcomes. The cause-effect relationship between them, as well as its intensity, are contingent. In other words, they do not act always in the same way but their influence depends very much on their possible combinations. 26
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. In the same way, there is a set of factors, external and internal to the company and to the new activities, which Moderate/Mediate in the entrepreneurship process. Moderators Environment hostility Context External Technology Demand Entrepreneurial Orientation CV Characteristics Strategy Orientation Internal Finance Top Management Organization Corporate Culture Intrapreneur Outcomes Economic Outcomes Market Performance Strategic Outcomes Processes Compensation/Incentives Control Mediators Timing Organizational Structure Market Orientation Controlled by the parent company Controlled by the new business Fig. 1 Integrative model for Corporate Venturing by Narayanan, Yang, Zahra (2009) 3 Methodology: Multiple Case Study The focus of this work is mainly exploratory. It means that the available theoretical basis for the research questions are considered inadequate or incomplete and that is why new theoretical contribution is required to better understand the analysed phenomenon. Consequently, multi-case study methodology has been used (Yin, 1984). As many authors have pointed out, (Yin, 1984; Eisenhardt, 1989; Villareal and Landeta, 2006; Toledano-Urbano, 2011) the main advantage is the potential to research deeply complex phenomena, in which experience of participants are specially important and the context is essential. 27
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. 4 Characterization of the Companies in the Study We have analyzed six companies with medium-high technological base: mediumhigh rates of assets/employee, sales/employee and added value/employee. These six companies work in very different industries. Four of them are mature companies, more than 30 years old, so these companies are managed by the second or third generation of owners. The other two are quite young, less than 10 years old, and these two companies are managed by the first generation of owners, the entrepreneur. Table 1 Characterization of the companies in the study Company B Age (Utilities design, construction & operation) Buildings construction (Structures design & construction) (No. of Employees) 60 5.000 40 Electric power generation Size (Years) A Industry 70 C Computer interactive graphics 5 50 D Bicycle manufacturing 150 250 5 30 90 80 E F Engineering services (Precision equipment for science design) Small and medium domestic appliances Technology Intensity Low Assets/employee (€) < 100.000 Medium > 200.000 Sales/employee (€) < 100.000 > 200.000 Added value/employee (€) < 40.000 Company High > 70.000 C, D, F A, B, E Medium High R+D Intensity Low University graduates < 10% > 50% R+D (Sales, employees) < 5% > 10% Patents Company F D, B A, C, E Internationalization Low Medium High (< 10% sales) Company (>25% sales) B, C, F 28 A, D, E
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. 5 Entrepreneurial Behaviour of the Companies in the Study The duration of the life-cycle of product or activity lines is decreasing to less than 10 years and companies are forced to set up new activities, at least, every five years. This is the reason why Corporate Entrepreneurship is so important for them by two ways: new product development and new companies development based on some of the former products. The features of the relationship between the Entrepreneurial Behaviour of the analyzed companies with their External Factors are summarized in table 2. Table 2 Types of Corporate Entrepreneurship according to External Factors change / Competitiveness of the industry) (Technology Life-Cycle of the Industry Relatedness to main activities Product life-cycle strategy Way of the new activity Origin of Entrepreneur No. cases Emergent Emergent technology Same Technology/ Different Market Pioneer Spin off External (2) C,E Internal (2) A,B Internal (2) D,F Mature Mature Same Technology/ Different Market Emergent technology Emergent technology Different Technology/ Same Market Different Technology/ Same Market Spin off Pioneer Strategic renewal Acquisition Pioneer Strategic renewal Source: elaborated by authors The features of the relationship between the Entrepreneurial Behaviour of the analyzed companies with their External Factors are summarized in table 3. 29
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Table 3 Types of Corporate Entrepreneurship according to Internal Factors (Boost for Corporate Entrepreneurship / Strategy) Product lifecycle strategy Pioneer Pioneer LifeCycle of the Industry Relatedness to main activities Boost for CE Way of the new activity Origin of the Entrepreneur No. cases Emergent Different Technology/ Different Market Board/Management Customers R+D Spin off Internal (1) A Emergent Same Technology/ Different Market Board/Management Customers R+D Technology partners Entrepreneur Spin off External (2) C, E Corporation Board/Management R+D Acquisition Strategic Internal renewal Different Technology/ Same Market Source: elaborated by authors Follower Mature (3) B,D,F 6 Analysis and Discussion Companies in “mature” industries are more “follower” than “pioneer”, despite their R+D departments. Companies in “emergent” industries show an opposite behaviour. In this sample there is a similar number of both types. There are more “pioneer” companies that launch technological innovations which are very “related” to their current business. In other words, they adapt current technologies and products to new markets and customers. Most of them create ex-novo companies, but there are also some cases of acquisitions. Almost in every case the entrepreneur is external to the original company. He or she usually comes from a partner of the company or a partner in a R+D project. In fact, those collaboration projects are the main source of original ideas for future entrepreneurial projects. But the Board of the company is always on its back. The role of the “entrepreneur” who “pushes” to make the new activity develop is more often in this category Companies in “mature” industries in our sample adopt mainly one type of innovation strategy: Related innovation. In other words, different technology for same market - customers. It is executed mainly through internal development though with technological partners. The boost comes more frequently from the Management and the R+D department frequently in cooperation with technological partners. 30
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Why the new ventures are created with a 100% or a majority share of the capital in some cases and with a minority share in others? It is more usual the latter than the former and the reason is not clear. It seems that the minority position is more usual in not related innovations and in emergent industries in which the company depends much more on technological partners. Why some companies use intrapreneurs and others external entrepreneurs? It is also not very clear. It seems that it is more related with the diversification to new markets than with the development of new technologies. When intending to enter in a new market it seems more appropriate to use someone with experience in them, frequently technological partners or collaborators in R+D projects. When intending to develop a new technology it seems more appropriate to rely on internal R+D and intrapreneurs. It is obvious that the Top Management role is decisive. Some of the companies in our sample (A, E) are “presidential”. In D it is the Board of the corporation, not the company who has the boost to promote innovation. In B it is the Executive Management and not the Board. In C they are some of the partners and not the CEO. In this same company, the entrepreneur was a main force in pushing forward the decision to create a new venture. In any case the role of the Board of the company is significantly moderated by (or significantly moderates to) the R+D department, the technological partners or the customers in the different cases. The use of Risk Capital does not seem to be influenced by the technological strategy (pioneering or follower) neither by the industry (emergent or mature), nor the creation of a brand new company or the acquisition of an existing one. What seems to have influence is again the destiny of the innovation. Activities created to penetrate new markets use more Risk Capital than the ones devoted to the development of new technologies. Anyway, this strategy has been used very few times. Almost all the companies in this study have used some modality of public funds: public calls for financing of R+D projects, establishments at Technology parks or Innovation Poles, or assistance to create new enterprises from CEI (Innovation and Enterprises Centres) or BIC (Business Innovation Centres). 7 References Covin, J; Slevin, D. (1991) “A conceptual model of entrepreneurship as firm behaviour”. Entrepreneurship: Theory and Practice, 16(1):7-25 Dess, G.; Lumpkin, G.; Mc. Gee, J.,(1999) “Linking corporate entrepreneurship to strategy, structure and process: suggested research direction”’. Entrepreneurship: Theory and Practice, 23(3):85-102 Eisenhardt, K. M. (1989): “Building Theories from Case Study Research”, Academy of Management Review, Vol. 14, nº 4, pp.532-550. Guth, W.; Ginsberg, A (1990) Guest Editor’s Introduction: “Corporate Entrepreneurship”. Strategic Management Journal, 11:5-15 31
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Lumpkin, G; Dess, G (1996) “Clarifying the entrepreneurial orientation construct and linking it to performance. Academy of Management Review, 21:135-172 Narayanan VK, Yang Yi, Zahra S.A (2009). “Corporate venturing and values creation: A review and proposed framework” Research Policy 38; 58-76 Miles, M.; Covin, J. (2002) “Exploring the Practice of Corporate Venturing: Some Common Forms and Their Organizational Implications”. Entrepreneurship: Theory and Practice, 26(3): 21-40 Urbano, David; Toledano, Nuria; Ribeiro-Soriano, Domingo. “Socio-cultural factors and transnational entrepreneurship: A multiple case study in Spain”. International Small Business Journal 29. 2 (Apr 2011): 119. Villarreal, O.; Landeta, J. (2007) “El estudio de casos como metodología de investigación científica en economía de la empresa y dirección estratégica” Empresa global y mercados locales: XXI Congreso Anual AEDEM, Vol. 1, 2007 (Ponencias), pág. 34 Yin, R. K. (1994): Case Study Research. Design and Methods, Applied Social Research Methods Series, Vol. 5, Second Edition, Sage Publications, London. 32
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. The impact of innovation management techniques on radical innovation: An empirical study Igartua J.I1, Errasti N, Ganzarain J Abstract While research in innovation management has provided many insights into specific aspects of innovation, the encompassing problems confronting general managers, especially managers of small and medium-size firms, have been overlooked in the development of innovation management techniques and tools. This paper analyses the way innovation management techniques (IMTs) influence innovation in firms. Specifically, this paper focuses on studying the role of IMTs on radical innovation. To this end, we propose a specific model of analysis, tested in a sample of more than five hundred Spanish companies. Research results highlight that different set of IMTs relate to radical and incremental innovation in different ways, and that therefore companies seeking for radical innovation look for certain IMTs rather than others. This empirical study will help managers and practitioners to understand the role of IMTs in structuring radical innovation strategy, as well as to researchers to focus on the role of such IMTs on innovation. Keywords: Innovation, Radical Innovation, Innovation Management Techniques, IMTs 1 Introduction The need for understanding innovation appears to be widespread, at business level. Some researchers have developed studies regarding the measurement of innovative performance in enterprises (Mancebo Fernández and Valls Pasola, 2005), using instruments as the Community Innovation Survey instrument (CIS) trying to discover the factors that influence that result (Arundel and Hollanders, 2006). On 1 Juan Ignacio Igartua (e-mail: jigartua@mondragon.edu) Departamento de Mecánica y Producción Industrial. Escuela Politécnica Superior, Mondragon Unibertsitatea, C/ Loramendi 4, 20500 Mondragon, Spain 33
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. the other hand, other scholars have investigate onto the role of innovation management and the analysis of its impact on innovation and innovation performance of firms (Rigby and Bilodeau, 2007, Adams et al., 2006) (Prajogo and Ahmed, 2006), including the emphasis on the role of systems and tools (Chiesa and Masella, 1996). Finally another incipient research approach it has been orientated to analyse the role of techniques and tools for managing innovation (Hidalgo and Albors, 2008).This approach highlights innovation as a fundamental process in organization performance (Galanakis, 2006, Raymond and St-Pierre, 2010), a process that requires setting up well-organized and well-run standardized set of tools (Igartua et al., 2010). In this direction, the aim of this paper focuses on understanding the influence of innovation management techniques (IMTs) on innovation in firms. Specifically, this paper focuses on studying the role of IMTs on radical innovation. Thus, the main purpose of the study reported in this paper is to understand how companies´ implementation of IMTs, affect innovation (product, service, process, and other kind of innovations) and the specific role of certain IMTs when looking for radical product or service innovation (McDermott and O'Connor, 2002). The aim of this paper is to understand whether IMTs play a significant role on innovation and the achievement of radical innovations. After a brief introduction to innovation management techniques (IMTs), we develop the methodology used in this study. Subsequently we show some empirical results of the investigation, including a conclusions section. 2 Innovation Management Techniques (IMTs) The need to manage the innovation process and context, demands that managers make effective and timely decisions based on multiple functions, inputs and disciplines (Brown, 1997); and therefore, management tools and techniques are needed to support these complex decisions (Phaal et al., 2006a). Brady et al. (Brady, 1997) define a management tool as “a document, framework, procedure, system or method that enables a company to achieve or clarify an objective” (p.418). Innovation management techniques (IMTs) can be defined as the range of tools, techniques and methodologies intended to support the process of innovation and help companies to meet new market challenges in a systematic way (Phaal et al., 2006a). Chiesa and Masella (Chiesa and Masella, 1996), in their audit model of the process of technological innovation, identified the effective use of appropriate tools and systems as one of three facilitators of innovation processes, in conjunction with the deployment of human and financial resources and the leadership and direction of senior management. 34
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. A research conducted in Europe (European Commission, 2000) affirmed that IMTs allow a company to combine technology and business strategy, fostering increased employee participation, and concluded that there is insufficient awareness of the variety and range of IMTs available, as well as the potential benefits of their use. More recently, Hidalgo and Albors (Hidalgo and Albors, 2008) argue that IMTs are critical to increasing competitiveness, showing that proper application of IMTs facilitates a company’s ability to introduce appropriate new technologies in products or processes, as well as the necessary changes to the organization. About the existing IMTs, several authors as Phaal et al. (Phaal et al., 2006a) have worked towards the development of a catalogue of tools, as well as a series of research programs. In this direction, some works have tried to summarize the existing set of techniques (Hidalgo and Albors, 2008), an approach followed by other researchers that focused on the role of certain tools (Igartua et al., 2010, Lichtenthaler, 2011, D'Alvano and Hidalgo, 2012, Aagaard, 2012, Tipu, 2012, Padilla-Meléndez and Garrido-Moreno, 2012, Huang and Rice, 2012), or empirical studies (Graner and Mißler-Behr, 2012, Barge-Gil et al., 2011, Chai et al., 2010). Thus, the present research focuses on the role of 17 groups of IMTs identify in the literature (1.- creative development, 2.- technology management, 3.- strategic management, 4.- people management, 5.- business intelligence, 6.- management innovative projects, 7.- development of new products-services, 8.- techniques and practices for collaboration and networking, 9.- design management, 10.knowledge management, 11.- new business development, 12.- financial resource management, 13.- industrial property rights management, 14.- production management, 15.- marketing, 16.- organizational practices, and 17.- process improvement) (Hidalgo and Albors, 2008 4261, Phaal et al., 2006b 1409). 3 Research Methodology The research was conducted through a survey targeted to business managers, as others research studies conducted in the field of innovation (O'Regan et al., 2006). The research is based on survey focused on innovation management where top managers, of more than five hundred companies over a defined universe of six thousand companies, were asked to answer a structured questionnaire from December 2008 till April 2009. The measurement instruments developed for the measurement of innovation (product-service and process) were based on variables used in the literature and based on the Community Innovation Survey (CORDIS, 2008). On the other hand, the measurement of the implementation of IMTs in companies was developed 35
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. though a scale of 53 items from the identification of the former mentioned 17 IMT groups identified in the literature (Cronbach's alpha for these scale was 0,948). The gathered data has been analysed using SPSS16 and statistical methods as T Student Test, ANOVA and regression analysis (simple linear and multiple linear). Due to the fact that the sample meets the sampling criteria needed to ensure its representativeness, the implications of the study are directly extrapolated to the entire study population. 4 Results In order to examine whether there are significant differences between the implementation of IMTs in companies and their innovation results, a Student's t-test comparison of two means was developed. The results of this test are summarized in Table 1. Thus, in all cases the t-statistic takes a critical level of bilateral significance lower than the critical value of 0.005 rejecting the null hypothesis of equality of means, and therefore concluding that the use of IMTs in companies that innovate is higher compared to those companies that do not innovate. Table 1 IMTs use related to Innovation (Product, service, process and other innovations) N Prod Inno Serv Inno Yes No Yes No 362 186 327 221 Mean 2,4700 1,7004 2,4267 1,8741 Std.D. ,67465 ,63001 ,68541 ,73550 Std. Err. Mean ,03546 ,04619 ,03790 ,04948 N Proc Inno Other Inno Yes No Yes No Mean Std.D. 378 176 409 148 2,4235 ,71159 1,7732 ,67540 2,4319 ,69673 1,6291 ,62068 Std. Err. Mean ,03660 ,05091 ,03445 ,05102 It was also considered the fact that, when analyzing the use of IMTs by companies, those could be classified into four groups, depending on product-service and process innovations (Table 2). Table 2 Companies classification based on innovation Prod-Serv Inno YES YES NO NO Process Inno NO YES YES NO Group 1 2 3 4 N 85 332 44 93 Thus, when analyzing the use of IMTs on these four groups the statistical results based on ANOVA analysis (with a significance of 0.000 lower that the significance lower than the critical value of 0.005), show that for all the IMTs groups 36
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. (excepted the group of techniques related to production management: Just-in-time, ERP, Lean Management); the mean use of IMTs is higher for those companies that do innovate in product-service and process altogether, than for those that only innovate in product, process or do not innovate (Figure 1). Fig. 1 Mean use of IMTs by companies´ innovation activity classification Finally, when analyzing the use of IMTs related to the innovation radicalness, two simple linear regression studies were developed, one for the radical innovation of product-services and other for the incremental one (see Table 3). The models take a very high R (0.596) for radical innovation and an also high R (0.641) for incremental innovation; indicating that 35.5% of the variability of performance in radical innovation of product-services depends on the use of IMTs, while the 41.1% of the variability of performance in incremental innovation of 37
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. product-services depends on the use of IMTs. In addition, the F statistic shows for both regressions a value below the critical level (Sig 0.05), so it can be argued that variables are linearly related. Table 3 Companies classification based on innovation Model Radical Innovation R R2 Adj. R2 Std.Err. of Estimate 1 ,596a ,355 ,354 a. Predictors: (Constant), IMTs ,77389 Model Incremental Innovation R R2 Adj. R2 Std.Err. of Estimate 1 ,641a ,411 ,410 a. Predictors: (Constant), IMTs ,78352 Besides, and in order to identify the IMT groups that most related to the radical innovation of product-services and to the incremental one, two multiple linear regression analysis were carried out introducing variables step by step till the models was validated after five steps and six steps respectively (see Table 4 and Table 5). Table 4 Multiple linear regression (step-by-step) relating IMTs and Radical Innovation Radical Innovation: Model Summaryf Std.Err. of Change Statistics Estimate R Square F df1 df2 Change Change 5 ,606e ,368 ,361 ,75135 ,008 6,581 1 508 e. Predictors: (Constant), TRed, TFinan, TCrea, TProp, TIntel f. Dependent variable: InnoRadical Model R R2 Adj. R2 Sig. F. Change ,011 So, the model of radical innovation was tested in five steps, after which the proposed model included a constant, and the variables related to the use of IMTs related to networking, economic and financial aspects, creativity techniques, techniques related to industrial property management, as well as those related to business intelligence and technological foresight. Table 5 Multiple linear regression (step-by-step) relating IMTs and Radical Innovation Radical Innovation: Model Summaryf Model R R Adj. Std.Err. of Change Statistics R2 Estimate R Square F df1 df2 Change Change 6 ,647f ,418 ,411 ,77402 ,008 7,226 1 504 f. Predictors: (Constant), TEmpr, TLNP, TTec, TProy, TProp, TRed g. Dependent variable: InnoIncremental 2 Sig. F. Change ,007 In contrast, the model of incremental innovation was tested in six steps, after which the proposed model included a constant, and the variables related to the use 38
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. of IMTs related to new business development (business plan, transfer mechanisms, and spin-offs), new product development techniques, technology management, project management, industrial property management, and those relating to the management of networking activities. 5 Discussion and Conclusions The main purpose of the article was to identify the link between business innovation and its radicalness and innovation management techniques (IMTS) implemented by companies. The IMTs measurement was based on set of 17 group of techniques taken from the literature, while the innovation measurement was based on the already existing instruments. Thus, based on the extended set of data and using statistical methods (Student's t-test, linear regression and multiple linear regressions), the research has underlined the importance of IMTs and their differential role on the achievement of different kinds of innovations (product-service and process). When analyzing innovation in companies, results indicate that the variability of performance in innovation management depends on the implementation IMTs, what underlines the importance of management techniques, coinciding with previous researchers (Phaal et al., 2006a, Hidalgo and Albors, 2008, Igartua et al., 2010, Phaal et al., 2006b, Chai et al., 2010, Barge-Gil et al., 2011, D'Alvano and Hidalgo, 2012, Graner and Mißler-Behr, 2012). Furthermore, the multiple linear regression analysis carried out also stress the role of certain IMTs for the development of radical versus incremental innovations. Thus, networking (open innovation and collaboration), as well as financing, creativity techniques, IPR management and business intelligence (technology watch) seem to be techniques that are important for the development of radical innovations, while new business development techniques, new product development techniques, technology management and project management seem to influence incremental innovation of product or services. The limitations of this paper result from the research model and the variables used. Further research and analysis would provide more detailed relationships. On the other hand, the contributions of this study must be interpreted with a degree of caution since it has focused on a regional context, which may have certain characteristics that can affect the findings. 39
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. 6 References Aagaard, A. 2012. The Contribution of Innovation Strategy Development and Implementation in Active Facilitation of Pharmaceutical Front End Innovation. Systemic Practice and Action Research, 25, 457-477. Adams, R., Bessant J. & Phelps, R. 2006. Innovation management measurement: A review. International Journal of Management Reviews, 8, 21-47. Arundel, A. & Hollanders, H. 2006. Searching the forest for the trees: “Missing” indicators of innovation. 2006 Trend Chart Methodology Report. MERIT - Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology. Barge-Gil, A., Nieto, M. J. & Santamaria, L. 2011. Hidden innovators: the role of non-RD activities. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 23, 415-432. Brady, T., Rush, H., Hobday, M., Davies, A., Probert, D., Banerjee, S. 1997. Tools for technology management: An academic perspective. Technovation, 17, 417-426. Brown, D. 1997. Innovation Management Tools: A review of selected methodologies, Luxembourg, EUROPEAN COMMISSION: Directorate-General XIII Telecommunications, Information Market and Exploitation of Research. CORDIS. 2008. Community Innovation Survey [Online]. Available: http://cordis.europa.eu/innovation-smes/src/cis.htm. Chai, S. N. C., Sun, H. Y. & Lau, A. K. W. The impact of innovation management techniques on product innovation performance: An empirical study. 2010 Singapore. 432-437. Chiesa, V. & Masella, C. 1996. Searching for an effective measure of R&D performance. Management Decision, 34, 49 - 57. D'alvano, L. & Hidalgo, A. 2012. Innovation management techniques and development degree of innovation process in service organizations. R and D Management, 42, 60-70. EUROPEAN COMMISSION 2000. Promoting innovation management techniques in Europe. Galanakis, K. 2006. Innovation process. Make sense using systems thinking. Technovation, 26, 1222-1232. Graner, M. & Mißler-Behr, M. 2012. The use of methods in new product development-A review of empirical literature. International Journal of Product Development, 16, 158-184. Hidalgo, A. & Albors, J. 2008. Innovation management techniques and tools: a review from theory and practice. R&D Management, 38, 113-127. Huang, F. & Rice, J. 2012. Openness in product and process innovation. International Journal of Innovation Management, 16. Igartua, J. I., Garrigós, J. A. & Hervas-Oliver, J. L. 2010. How innovation management techniques support an open innovation strategy. Research Technology Management, 53, 41-52. Lichtenthaler, U. 2011. Implementation Steps For Successful Out-Licensing. ResearchTechnology Management, 54, 47-53. Mancebo Fernández, N. R. & Valls Pasola, J. 2005. El comportamiento innovador de la empresa industrial. Un modelo de análisis a partir de la encuesta del INE. Mcdermott, C. M. & O'connor, G. C. 2002. Managing radical innovation: An overview of emergent strategy issues. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 19, 424-438. O'regan, N., Ghobadian, A. & Sims, M. 2006. Fast tracking innovation in manufacturing SMEs. Technovation, 26, 251-261. Padilla-Meléndez, A. & Garrido-Moreno, A. 2012. Open innovation in universities: What motivates researchers to engage in knowledge transfer exchanges? International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behaviour and Research, 18, 417-439. Phaal, R., Farrukh, C. & Probert, D. 2006a. Technology management tools: generalization, integration and configuration. International Journal of Innovation & Technology Management, 3, 321-339. 40
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Phaal, R., Farrukh, C. J. P. & Probert, D. R. 2006b. Technology management tools: concept, development and application. Technovation, 26, 336-344. Prajogo, D. I. & Ahmed, P. K. 2006. Relationships between innovation stimulus, innovation capacity, and innovation performance. R&D Management, 36, 499-515. Raymond, L. & St-Pierre, J. 2010. R&D as a determinant of innovation in manufacturing SMEs: An attempt at empirical clarification. Technovation, 30, 48-56. Rigby, D. & Bilodeau, B. 2007. Management Tools and Trends 2007. Bain & Company. Tipu, S. A. A. 2012. Open innovation process in developing-country manufacturing organisations: Extending the Stage-Gate model. International Journal of Business Innovation and Research, 6, 355-378. 41
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. An Empirical Analysis of the Spanish Gas Price Structure Cansado P1, Rodríguez Monroy C2 Abstract We can say without hesitation that in energy markets a throughout data analysis is crucial when designing sophisticated models that are able to capture most of the critical market drivers. In this study we will attempt to investigate into Spanish natural gas prices structure to improve understanding of the role they play in the determination of electricity prices and decide in the future about price modelling aspects. To further understand the potential for modelling, this study will focus on the nature and characteristics of the different gas price data available. The fact that the existing gas market in Spain does not incorporate enough liquidity of trade makes it even more critical to analyze in detail available gas price data information that in the end will provide relevant information to understand how electricity prices are affected by natural gas markets. In this sense representative Spanish gas prices are typically difficult to explore given the fact that there is not a transparent gas market yet and all the gas imported in the country is negotiated and purchased by private companies at confidential terms. Keywords: Natural Gas, Gas Price, Oil Indexation, CCGT, Spark Spread. 1 Introduction Probably the most visible link between gas and electricity prices is found when analyzing operations by gas-fired power generation plants (CCGTs). In this respect, for a CCGT the decision to generate electricity or not, will depend on the ‘spark spread’, i.e. the difference between the cost of gas generating an extra MWh of electricity and the revenue obtained from the sale of electricity at the System Marginal Price (SMP). As we said, the report aims primarily to provide a 1 Pablo Cansado Bravo ( e-mail: pablo.cansado@yahoo.es) Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales de Madrid. 2 Carlos Rodríguez Monroy ( e-mail: crmonroy@etsii.upm.es) Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. c/ José Gutiérrez Abascal, 2, 28006 Madrid. 42
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. detailed analysis of the available gas price references to understand and quantify the essential features applying to the Spanish gas and electricity markets 2 Gas Pricing Fundamentals in Spain. Perhaps the most crucial factor having a strong influence on the existing long term contract gas prices in Spain, is the fact that the majority of those gas contracts prices are determined by a formula referenced to oil and oil products evolution. Moreover long term contracts are confidential by nature and therefore a precise determination of wholesale gas prices is opaque. Not only are most contracts confidential, but contracts are often limited to two or three years in length, and have been struck at very different prices over time. As a result the ‘average’ gas price normally quoted as a reference is often significantly different from the current contracts available in the market. Additionally to the long-term purchasing strategy, Spanish traders actively seek short term optimization opportunities which bring incoming gas of another nature, named spot LNG. This opportunistic gas supply is normally priced with reference to other benchmarks different from oil and oil products like National Balancing Point (NBP), Transfer and Title Facility (TTF) or even to the recently devised LNG spot indices. Although a detailed analysis of Spanish natural gas price influencing factors is far from the scope of this report, we will analyse those gas price formation drivers through the resulting price structure. Furthermore this will help us to better understand which would be the best option to analyze potential for forecasting gas and electricity prices in the future. The fact that gas coming into Spain is generally delivered through long-term agreements, this structure covering at least 94% of the total expected annual demand as of 2011 according to the Comisión Nacional de la Energía (CNE), creates a solid framework to assess the Spanish gas price contracting structure. Moreover a high proportion of these contracts use Brent oil and oil products as base price reference for buyers and sellers. It has to be said that, establishing a reference for end-user gas prices is also difficult. In the first place, the liberalization process in the gas market has significantly widened up the range of gas suppliers in the country adding a certain variety of gas price formulas and price levels. Furthermore the traditional regulated, i.e. fixed price reference applicable to specific customers is today only a residual share of the total gas market, i.e. the Last Resort Tariff (LRT) scheme for small customers that sets a price benchmark only relative to the actual volumes sold in that segment, around 20% of total volumes sold. Nonetheless the Ministry´s procedures to establish a transparent LRT price formation scheme has helped substantially to determine fundamentals of imported price, as we will see. 43
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. 3 Gas Price Data Available in Spain In order to perform the analysis, we have examined the main information published ready available in Spain for wholesale gas prices, of which perhaps the most relevant today is that collected by the CNE, directly processed from imported gas price data by origin from Agencia Tributaria (AEAT) in www.AEAT.es, similar to the information that AEAT provides to all Spanish Cámaras de Comercio and that is available through the Comercio Exterior Data Base in http://aduanas.camaras.org/ web site. We will nominate this reference as CNE_AT gas price. As the second gas price reference for Spanish import prices we will select the base price benchmark described in the Last Resort Tariff (LRT) calculation methodology developed by the Ministry of Industry in 2008 with the intention to reflect existing long term contract prices into Spain for LRT calculation purposes. The benefit of this price reference is that it gives in our view a very accurate representation of larger import volumes prices into Spain but also of expected oil-indexed average price trends in the future, at least for the next four or five years. In this sense we anticipate a significant alignment between the current cost of long-term supplies into Spain (as per the CNE_AT gas price) and the LRT base price. It has to be said that additionally, the LRT Ministry´s calculation weights this long term base gas price with gas prices resulting from regular auctions and also with a percentage of NBP and Henry Hub (HH) prices. The introduction of external price benchmarks into the resulting price formula had initially the intention to take into account regular LNG spot purchases by traders at a liquid hub price. The actual weighting determined by the Ministry is in our opinion somehow misleading as it does not consider that liquid markets, like NBP and HH do also structurally fluctuate according to medium term supply/demand conditions. At this point in time and with the depressing effect of shale gas production significantly lowering HH index, we understand that a resulting weighted average of 80% LRT price and 20% NBP price to construct a final LRT proxy price is more realistic. This will be our second gas price reference. Finally and in order to complete the picture we have also considered in the analysis the NBP price benchmark to reflect trends and seasonality of global LNG spot prices as a whole affecting Spanish traders price expectations under the current market conditions. 44
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. 4 Distribution Function of Spanish natural gas prices. 4.1 Objective The objective in this section will be to understand the statistical properties of typical long term gas price benchmarks in Spain to prepare for an ulterior analysis of effects into electricity prices formation. We start with an analysis of almost eight years history (01/01/2004-01/07/2012) with price details on a monthly basis by the different benchmarks, i.e. CNE_AT, LRT proxy and NBP to set up the picture of wholesale gas price formation in Spain. The main objective of the analysis will be to conclude on the distribution patterns of the different gas price data as an essential starting point for building up gas price factors into stochastic models to determine electricity prices in the future. Modelling techniques, model testing and acceptance and finding the right parameters all depend in great extent on the choice of the relevant distribution. Although there is a vast amount work devoted to empirical analysis of the properties of gas price distributions in different markets, the Spanish gas market situation under the rules of oil-indexed contracts, make the analysis of price distributions a very challenging task. Although the opening of the gas market in Spain is prior to 2004, we will consider that a relative more stable picture for trading activities is starting around 2003 and 2004. We will try in the first place to test the hypothesis that log-returns of these values are normally distributed. We will follow the traditional methodology in finance, in particular the Black–Scholes model, that considers changes in the logarithm of energy price indices are assumed normal (these variables behave like compound interest, not like simple interest, and so are multiplicative. 4.2 Statistical Properties of Spanish Natural Gas Prices As discussed, we will start by analyzing the statistical properties of the data referred in previous sections that will allow us to examine the dynamics of the long term gas price series. At a later stage we will present a model taking into account previous observations in order to extract as much as possible significant characteristics of the data. We anticipate that general work done on modelling crude oil and their volatile will be essential for modelling identification and model selection. In order to assure that there is not trend component and data are stationary to some extent, we will analyze dynamics of returns series rather than price series themselves. We will calculate for each of the price references log returns as a sequence of prices S1 as defined by the continuous compounding basis: 45
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. 𝑋 𝑖 = ln (1 + R t ) = ln 𝑃𝑖+1 𝑃𝑖 Here Pt denotes the price of natural gas at time t. In this way we will smooth out existing trends, i.e., those arising from crude oil price evolution. Furthermore it will allow us to test the hypothesis that log-returns of these values are normally distributed in a more convenient form. Figure 1 presents the history of the gas price benchmarks considered and Figure 2 returns of LRT Proxy and NBP from January 2004 until July 2012. Fig. 1 Evolution of different gas price benchmarks and electricity prices since 2004 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 Jan 07 Jan 06 Jan 05 -0,25 Jan 04 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 10 -0,25 Jan 09 0,00 Jan 08 0,00 Jan 07 0,25 Jan 06 0,25 Jan 05 0,50 Jan 04 0,50 -0,50 -0,50 NBP LRT base (80%)and NBP (20%) proxi Fig. 2 Evolution of returns from LRT proxy and NBP since 2004 The behaviour of prices and returns in the case of the LRT proxy is unsteady and although volatility is low compared to that of NBP, there is some evidence of volatility clustering, i.e. periods of high volatility followed by periods of relatively low volatility, what seems to be in line with typical crude oil returns characteristics. 46
    • Book of Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management - XVII Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización. Figure 3 shows the resulting histogram of long term gas price benchmarks logreturns. In the tables attached we can see the statistical parameters determining each function characteristics. LRT Proxy 10 Number Observations Minimum Maximum First Quartile Median Third Quartile Density 6 4 2 0 -0,25 -0,15 Var1 0,15 0,05 -0,05 Var1 0,25 101 -0,180 0,145 -0,007 0,015 0,037 Average Variance (n-1) Standard Deviation (n-1) Skewness (Pearson) Kurtosis (Pearson) 0,008 0,003 0,051 -1,084 2,321 Number Observations Minimum 8 101 -0,189 Maximum First Quartile Median Third Quartile Average Variance (n-1) Standard Deviation (n-1) Skewness (Pearson) Kurtosis (Pearson) 0,122 -0,007 0,016 0,031 0,010 0,003 0,051 -1,076 3,486 Normal(0,008;0,051) CNE Density 10 5 0 -0,25 -0,15 Var1 -0,05 Var1 0,05 0,15 Normal(0,010;0,050) Fig 3 Distribution functions of log-returns for LRT proxy and CNE data.  Kurtosis is greater than 3 for CNE price and around 2.5 for LRT Proxy, thus density functions are characterized by the fatness of their tails comparing to the density of the Gaussian distribution N(0,1) As it can be seen higher kurtosis distribution have a sharper peak around the mean and longer, fatter tails, while a low kurtosis distribution has a more rounded peak and shorter, thinner tails. For Normal distributions excess kurtosis is cero. We can