Eden Pps6 6 Project Summary Reifernandes
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Eden Pps6 6 Project Summary Reifernandes

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Projecto EDEN

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    Eden Pps6 6 Project Summary Reifernandes Eden Pps6 6 Project Summary Reifernandes Presentation Transcript

    • PPS6 EDEN Revised project description and methodology Rei Fernandes First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007
    • Methodology overview • 4 stage process: 1. End vision development from scenarios 2. Impact analysis 3. Transition analysis 4. Synthesis and action plan development Impact analysis Synthesis and End vision action plan development Transition analysis First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007
    • Overview of Tasks Table Phase Activity % Total Time Responsible Portugal Vision and Scenario 5 IST Development 5 INEGI Impact Analysis Method Economic E3 database 5 IST F1 TIMES 20 Social ISIS 10 IST (subcontract) Environmental COPERT 10 INETI Transition Method Analysis of KCAM 10 SRE Potential Challenges & F2 Infrastructure 15 INEGI Opportunities EDP Niche Markets 5 SRE Roadmap Synthesis 5 All F3 Action Plan 10 All First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007
    • Current Progress • Kick-off meeting complete, 10th January • Final Products Descriptions gathered from PPS6 Partners • Full and detailed PPS6 EDEN Project Description completed with detailed roles, objectives, timings, & deliverables • First Workshop today! First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007
    • PPS6 Project Description in Summary • Four workshops/ meetings: – First workshop, end March 2007, INEGI in Porto – Second workshop, end Sept 2007, EDP? in Lisbon – Work level meeting, start Feb 2008, at IST in Lisbon – Final Dissemination meeting, End May 2008, in Lisbon First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007
    • Impact analysis • Use computer models to analyse the impact of hydrogen introduction under the four scenarios in three areas: – Economic (E3, TIMES) – Social (ISIS) – Environmental (COPERT) First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007
    • TIMES • MARKAL, short for MARKet ALIocation – new name TIMES • computer-driven, dynamic optimization model • Integrates energy, environmental, and economic factors. • Identifies costs and benefits of alternative energy scenarios for the future. • Estimates the relative merits of specific technologies that can be applied in an energy system. • Widespread international acceptance, with more than 40 countries using it to analyze a broad range of issues in energy planning and environmental policy formulation. • Provides energy system solutions to support national planning and policy decisions. First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007
    • TIMES • Times is an economic model generator for local, national or multi regional energy systems. • computer-driven, dynamic optimization model. • Integrates energy, environmental, economic factors and takes policy into account. • Aims to supply energy services at a minimum global cost. • Estimates the relative merits of specific technologies that can be applied in an energy system. • Provides energy system solutions to support national planning and policy decisions. First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007
    • TIMES II What Inputs does it needs? • End-use Energy service demands • Existing stock of energy related in equipment in all sectors • Characteristics of available future technologies • Present and future sources of primary energy supply and their potentials • In addition Policy constraints can be added for the model to take into account – e.g. “GHG emissions have to be reduce in x% by 2020 when compared to 1990 values” – e.g. “10% Hydrogen demand in all sectors using x,y,z technologies” First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007
    • TIMES III What outputs are expected from TIMES? • Energy system optimisation in several sectors • Enable comparisons (economic and environmental) between the EDEN scenarios and the Baseline scenario. First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007
    • ISIS • Provides, for a given hydrogen scenario: – The influence on industrial structure – The impact on “quantitative” employment effects • Meso level (covers all sectors of an economy) First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007
    • COPERT • Analyse road transport emissions • CO, NOx, VOC, CH4, CO2, N2O, SOx and others • Dependent on vehicle fleet size and composition – relate to TIMES results and other models (TREMOVE) First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007
    • Copert III Methodology 1. Input data: 1. Car fleet for a specific year 2. Calculations (example): - number of vehicles per category hot emission of pollutant i of vehicle class j per (passengers, light duty cars, heavy duty road type k: cars, buses, mopeds, motorcycles) Ehot;i,j,k = Nj x Mj,k x ehot,i,j,k and classes (related with engine capacity and vehicle age) Nj = number of vehicles of class j - annual mileage of vehicle class Mj,k = mileage driven on road type k per vehicle class j 2. Circulation Information: ehot,i,j,k = emission factor (g/Km) of pollutant i for - speed per road type vehicle class j operating in road type k - driving share for road type and vehicle class 3. Results (for a specific year) (road type: urban, rural, highway) 1. Total emission of pollutant (i) 2. Emission of pollutant (i) per: 3. Other Data - evaporation data a) vehicle category or class - climatic conditions b) road type - cold start parameters First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto,of emission: (hot, cold and evaporation) c) type 28 March 2007
    • Transition analysis • In parallel to the quantitative models • Qualitative impact analysis of the hydrogen chains to identify main challenges – KCAM • Identification of niche and market opportunities for Portuguese industry • Infrastructure analysis – plan the geographical introduction of hydrogen technologies and infrastructure First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007
    • KCAM Key Changes and Actor Mapping • A systematic method to gather and present qualitative data on hydrogen systems development • Via stakeholder consultation • Highlights major challenges (Key Changes) and actor groups associated with introducing a hydrogen chain First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007
    • Infrastructure Analysis • Verify development scenarios on a regional basis • Approved scenario of regional infrastructure build-up • Provide inputs to and interaction with other tasks • Assess investment costs over time • Input from stakeholders required • Results: – Transport distances – Graphic presentation of regional infrastructure build-up – Identification of potential cross-border hydrogen flows – Cash flow for infrastructure build-up First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007
    • Synthesis and action plan development • Collect all results from Impact analysis and Transition analysis • Determine the main messages • Present them in a suitable format for use in a coordinated public information campaign First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007
    • Timeline 2006 2007 2008 Actividade Tarefa J F MASONDJ F MAMJ J ASONDJ F MAMJ J ASOND End vision F0 Scenario development Impact analysis Economic F1 Social Environmental Transition analysis Qualitative assessment F2 Infrastructure analysis Niche and market opportunities Synthesis and action plan F3 Create action plan TOTAL DO PPS6 PPS6 First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007
    • Discussion First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007