Eden Pps6 3 Times Pt Jo Ocleto

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Eden Pps6 3 Times Pt Jo Ocleto

  1. 1. Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  2. 2. Workshop EDEN PPS6 Portuguese energy system scenarios for 2030 and Greenhouse Gas emissions using TIMES_PT 28 Março 2007 Sala de Actos da FEUP João Cleto Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente FCT - Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia UNL - Universidade Nova de Lisboa DCEA-FCT/UNL Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  3. 3. Overview • TIMES_PT – Structure and information sources – Objective Function for optimization – Model Inputs: primary energy potentials, technologies databases (costs, efficiencies and availability of electricity generation technologies), etc • Energy Scenarios 2000-2030 – Energy Consumption (total, sector, electricity generation) – Technologies profile • Analysis of CO2e Abatement Scenarios 2000-2030 Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  4. 4. TIMES_PT Structure, Inputs and Outputs, Information Sources Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  5. 5. TIMES Model Dynamic model of linear optimization, that configures the energy system in such way as to minimize the net total cost of the system, while satisfying a number of constrains of the demand Analyze the system behaviour over a Objective function – certain period of time and assume maximization of total surplus that the energy markets are in perfect (the step function allows the competition and the agents have a optimization through linear perfect knowledge of his evaluation programming) Assume a linear behavior between the outputs and inputs (However, does not mean that production functions behave in a linear fashion) Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  6. 6. Objective Function (Minimization of Total System Costs) NPV: net present value of the total costs ANNCOST: Total annual cost d: general discount rate REFYR: reference year for discounting YEARS: set of years for which there are costs (all years in the horizon + past years if costs have been defined for past investments + a number of years after the life time of the technology if some investment and dismantling cost are still being incurred, as well as the Salvage Value Discounted sum of the annual costs minus revenues: + Investment costs + Costs for sunk material during construction time + Variable costs + Fix operating and maintenance costs + Surveillance costs + Decommissioning costs + Taxes - Subsidies - Recuperation of sunk material - Salvage value Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  7. 7. Reference energy system in TIMES_PT Commodities Technologies or Processes Commodity Flow Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  8. 8. Base Model Structure – Main Sectors Transports Refinery, imports and renewable energy Industry Electricity Households, Commercial and Agriculture Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  9. 9. Main Information Sources in TIMES_PT General Structure • Economic Sectors • Existing Technologies/Processes NEEDS with minor adjustments/corrections (aggregation level) • Processes flow Technologies • Standard information technologies description (Ex: mass NEEDS with minor adjustments/corrections balances) DGGE • Stocks (Ex: installed capacity) National Emissions Inventory • Efficiency INE • Availability factor EDP, PEGOP, Turbogás, Valorsul, Cogen, EDM, EDA (…) • Input/Output ratio PTEN PNAC • Specific Parameters (Ex: CHPR) Studies and Publications (...) Energy Balance • Demand division DGGE & Eurostat Energy Balances ADENE (EURECO Project) • Load Diagram (timeslices) Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  10. 10. TIMES_PT Exogenous Inputs: Energy services demand, New energy technologies, primary energy potential, policy assumptions Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  11. 11. Model Structure: Exogenous Inputs and Outputs Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  12. 12. Demand Growth % year (2005-2010 / 2010-2030) 380 Space Cool. (4,5% / 3,9%) 360 340 320 300 280 Index (2000=100) 260 240 220 200 Glass (2,5% / 1,9%) tkm (2,6% / 1,8%) 180 Clinker (2,0% / 1,5%) 160 Pulp (1,6% / 1,0%) 140 Iron & Steel (1,0% / 0,3%) 120 Water Heat (1,1% / 0,5%) pkm (0,7% / 0,4%) 100 Space Heat (0,8% / 0,5%) 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  13. 13. Primary Energy Potentials in TIMES_PT 2000 2030 Reference Assumed a maximum growth 30% Wood Products (PJ) 71.7 100 (+28%) of 2000 capacity GPPAA & Extrapolation of PNAC Biogas (PJ) 0.1 29 (+100%) Waste Scenarios Extrapolation of Renewable Crops for Biofuel (PJ) 0.0 15 (+100%) Energy Portugal Forum Best guess based on 2008 Biofuel production (PJ) 0.0 50 (+100%) expected installed capacity Extrapolation of PNAC Waste Municipal Waste (PJ) 7.3 10 (+27%) scenarios Industrial Waste – Sludge (PJ) 0.0 2 (+100%) Best guess Assumed a maximum growth of Hydro (PJ) 40.2 55 (+35%) 35% of 2000 capacity Conservative assumption based Wind onshore (GW) 0.6 5 (+98%) on REN Wind offshore (GW) 0.0 2 (+100%) Best guess Extrapolation of Renewable Solar- heating (PJ) 0.8 38 (+98%) Energy in Portugal Forum Solar-electricity generation (GW) 0.0 2 (+100%) Best guess Extrapolation of Renewable Geothermal (PJ) 0.6 8 (+93%) Energy Portugal Forum Cruz, J., Sarmento, A. (2004). Waves (GW) 0.0 5 (+100%) Energia das Ondas Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  14. 14. Energy Scenarios 2000 - 2030 Base Scenario Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  15. 15. TIMES_PT Base Scenario - main policy assumptions Base Scenario CO2 eq. emissions restrictions (27% above 1990 levels in 2010-2030) Min. 39% of the electricity consumed in 2010 is from renewable sources Biofuel targets for 2010 (5.75%) Minimum use of Municipal Waste & Wood Waste Use existing natural gas power plants & at least new 200 MW in 2010-2030 No new Coal Power Plants before 2015 & no increase in coal in final sectors Nuclear is not an option Limited electricity imports (+100% 2005) and exports (+100% 2000) Limits on CHP (industry: +50% in 2020) No credits from Kyoto mechanisms Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  16. 16. Energy Scenario 2000 - 2030 Final Energy Consumption - Industry: Base Scenario 600 Final Energy Consumption (PJ) 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000K 2005K 2010K 2015K 2020K 2025K 2030K Coal Petroleum products Gas Electricity Heat Renewables Waste Others (Methanol, Hydrogen) Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  17. 17. Energy Scenario 2000 - 2030 Final Energy Consumption - Transports: Base Scenario 400 350 Final Energy Consumption (PJ) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000K 2005K 2010K 2015K 2020K 2025K 2030K Diesel Gasoline Heavy Fuel Oil Kerosene - Jet Fuels LPG Electricity Renewables Others (Methanol, Hydrogen, DME) Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  18. 18. Net Electricity Generation 2000 - 2030 50 Tecnologias de Geração de Electricidade Net electricity generation (TWh) 25 0 2000K 2005K 2010K 2015K 2020K 2025K 2030K Coal Lignite Oil Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Others CHP - Natural Gas, H2, biomass Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  19. 19. Analysis of CO2e Abatement Scenarios for 2030 CO2 emission restrictions Scenarios Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  20. 20. GHG Emissions Cená Cenário Restriç Restrições 27% acima das emissões de 1990 em vigor a partir de 2010 e Quioto 39% da electricidade consumida em 2010 é de fonte renovável 20, 10 e 0% acima das emissões de 1990 em vigor a partir de +20%, +10%, 0% 2020 e 39% da electricidade consumida em 2010 é de fonte renovável 10, 20 e 30% abaixo das emissões de 1990 em vigor a partir de -10%, -20%, -30% 2020 e 39% da electricidade consumida em 2010 é de fonte renovável Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  21. 21. Electricity Generation Technologies Profile:2020 Elect ricidade gerada em 2 0 20 ( PJ) % Electricidade renovável Quiot o 55% CO2eq +20% 60% CO2eq +10% 64% CO2eq 0% 63% CO2eq - 30% 67% CO2eq - 20% 64% CO2eq - 10% 63% 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 St eam Turb Coal Ex CHP St eamTurb IndCoal Comb Cyc Gas Ex Comb Cyc Gas New CHP FuelCell Gas Int CombOil Ex CHP Ind HFO Ex St eam Turb Wast e Ex CHP St eamTurb Wast e Hydro Ex Hydro New CHP Ind IPH Biof Ex CHP Int Comb Biogas CHP FuelCell H2 CHP Int Comb Ind Oil New CHP Ind Biom Ex Wind Onshore Wind Offshore Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  22. 22. Residential Heating Tecnologies: 2020 Aq u e cim e n t o d e e sp a ço n o se ct o r r e sid e n cia l e m 2 0 2 0 ( PJ) 53% Biomassa+solar Quioto 52% Biomassa+solar CO2eq + 20% 52% Biomassa+solar CO2eq + 10% 51% Biomassa+solar C O2eq 0% 50% Biomassa+solar C O2eq - 10% 48% Biomassa+solar C O2eq - 20% 27% Biomassa+solar C O2eq - 30% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Oil boiler Electr ic stov e Electr ic Heat Pum p LPG Heat Pum p Wood ther m ofir eplace Solar / elc Solar / diesel D istr ict heating Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  23. 23. CO2e Abatement Costs Marginal Abat ement Curv e f or CO2 60 50 50.16 40 €/ tCO2 30 24.90 20 17.92 12.96 10 9.19 6.67 3.79 0 Quioto 20 10 0 - 10 - 20 - 30 Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP
  24. 24. jfcn@fct.unl.pt - João Cleto sgcs@fct.unl.pt - Sofia Simões http://air.dcea.fct.unl.pt/projects/e2pol/ Telf: 212 948 300 ext. 10180 Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP

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