Richard Perez - GW Solar Symposium 2012

1,164 views
1,073 views

Published on

Published in: Business, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,164
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
68
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
10
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Richard Perez - GW Solar Symposium 2012

  1. 1. SOLAR ENERGY: A Path to Energy Significance 4/12/12 DISPERSED PV GENERATION: SOLAR RESOURCE VARIABILITY Richard Perez Tom Hoff
  2. 2. DISPERSED PV GENERATION: SOLAR RESOURCE VARIABILITY SPATIAL © R. Perez & T. Hoff
  3. 3. TEMPORAL TIME SCALE © R. Perez & T. Hoff
  4. 4. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 One-Minute Global Irradiance (W/sq.m) 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 One-Minute Global Irradiance (W/sq.m) -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Minute-to-Minute Change (%maximum yield) -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Minute-to-Minute Change (%maximum yield) SINGLE LOCATION 20 UNCORRELATED LOCATIONS © R. Perez et al Relative Variability = 1/√N N locations © Richard Perez / Tom Hoff Variability = σ(∆kt*)
  5. 5. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 One-Minute Global Irradiance (W/sq.m) -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Minute-to-Minute Change (%maximum yield) 20 UNCORRELATED LOCATIONS © R. Perez et al © Richard Perez / Tom Hoff Relative Variability = 1/√N N locations
  6. 6. © Richard Perez / Tom Hoff 16 Months of data -- 40 million data points © R. Perez & T. Hoff
  7. 7. Virtual Networks Time  space = f (cloud speed) © Richard Perez / Tom Hoff 400x400km satellite- derived hi-resolution one-minute data 16 Months of data -- 40 million data points16 Months of data -- 4 Billion data points Very high density modular networks 66 stations
  8. 8. -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ∆Kt*Correlation Site-pair distance distance (km) One minute One minute © Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
  9. 9. -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ∆Kt*Correlation Site-pair distance distance (km) One minute 5-minutes © Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
  10. 10. -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ∆Kt*Correlation Site-pair distance distance (km) One minute 5-minutes 15-minutes © Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
  11. 11. -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ∆Kt*Correlation Site-pair distance distance (km) One minute 5-minutes 15-minutes 30-minutes © Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
  12. 12. -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ∆Kt*Correlation Site-pair distance distance (km) One minute 5-minutes 15-minutes 30-minutes One Hour HAWAII LAND Nov 2011 CLOUD SPEED 13 km/h © Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
  13. 13. NEVADA Jun 1998 CLOUD SPEED 24 km/h -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ∆Kt*Correlation Site-pair distance distance (km) One minute 5-minutes 15-minutes 30-minutes One Hour © Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
  14. 14. HAWAII Dec 2010 CLOUD SPEED 26 km/h -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ∆Kt*Correlation Site-pair distance distance (km) One minute 5-minutes 15-minutes 30-minutes One Hour © Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
  15. 15. CENT. CALIFORNIA Mar 1998 CLOUD SPEED 30 km/h -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ∆Kt*Correlation Site-pair distance distance (km) One minute 5-minutes 15-minutes 30-minutes One Hour © Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
  16. 16. SOUTH GT. PLAINS Dec 2010 CLOUD SPEED 44 km/h -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ∆Kt*Correlation Site-pair distance distance (km) One minute 5-minutes 15-minutes 30-minutes One Hour © Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
  17. 17. -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 ∆Kt*Correlation -0.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Site-pair distance distance (km) © R. Perez & T. Hoff
  18. 18. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 5 10 15 CorrelationZeroCrossoverDistance(km) FluctuationDeltaT(minutes) © Richard Perez / Tom Hoff ∆t ZeroCorrellationDistance
  19. 19. BASE GENERATION VARIABLE GENERATION SOLAR GENERATION STORAGE CRITICAL TIME SCALE Seconds Minutes Half Hour Hour Small PV Large PV or dist. feeder Utility Balancing Area Application Technical Solutions Interconnection Hardware Voltage reg. devices Storage Load Management, contingency variable generation SolarAnywhere High Resolution SolarAnywhere Standard Resolution © R. Perez & T. Hoff
  20. 20. CRITICAL TIME SCALE Seconds Minutes Half Hour Hour SolarAnywhere High Resolution SolarAnywhere Standard Resolution © R. Perez & T. Hoff Measured and simulated 10 second fleet output for a 4 km x 4 km region
  21. 21. © R. Perez & T. Hoff. © Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
  22. 22. -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 DeltaKt* -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 DeltaKt* -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 DeltaKt* single point -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 DeltaKt* single point 20-Second fluctuations 1-minute fluctuations 5-minute fluctuations 15-minute fluctuations SINGLE POINT © Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
  23. 23. -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 DeltaKt* -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 DeltaKt* -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 DeltaKt* -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 DeltaKt* 20-Second fluctuations 1-minute fluctuations 5-minute fluctuations 15-minute fluctuations SINGLE POINT 40x40 km AREA © Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
  24. 24. Hourly Variability divided by 5 3-Hour Variability divided by 5 6-Hour Variability divided by 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 5 10 15 CorrelationZeroCrossoverDistance(km) FluctuationDeltaT(minutes) ∆t = 24 hours Source: Marc Perez, Columbia University ∆t ZeroCorrellationDistance
  25. 25. Perez et al., ASRC
  26. 26. 100oF 80oF 20oF 40oF 60oF © Richard Perez, ASRC
  27. 27. Early 2012 Heat Wave 0 30 60 100 © R. Perez & T. Hoff
  28. 28. 0.10 0.23 0.28 0.33 0.38 0.43 0.48 0.53 0.58 0.63 0.68 0.73 0.78 0.83 0.88 0.93 0.98 10 x10 km 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 1.7% 3.9% 11.6% 79.2% Clearness Index Distributed resource footprint 30x30 km 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 1.0% 1.9% 2.9% 7.5% 84.3% 70x70 km 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 3.9% 94.4% 90x90 km 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.0% 97.8% 110x110 km 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 97.3% 50x50 km 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 1.2% 97.6% A/C Solar Peak Shaving Guarantee increases with resource distribution 15-year Clearness Index distribution for all hours with T >88F, Central CA Probability of having less than a 90% ideal solar resource: ZERO 10x10km30x30km50x50km70x70km90x90km110x110km © R. Perez & T. Hoff
  29. 29. More intense cloud impact More intense turbidity impact FLAT PLATE vs. CONCENTRATION Capacityfactor © R. Perez & T. Hoff
  30. 30. Thank you
  31. 31. SPARE SLIDES THEREAFTER

×