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GWU SOLAR INSTITUTE SYMPOSIUM 4/26/2011  SOLAR GRID PARITY  A value based perspective                                     ...
renewable                         finite                                                                                  ...
renewable                         finite                                                                                  ...
NEWSWEEKApril 4, 2011                © Richard Perez, et al.
• Vast resource• Built-in smart grid capability• Energy breeder
NGCC       Hydro               © Richard Perez, ASRC
Heat wave A/C electrical demand peak      © Richard Perez, ASRC
Heat wave A/C electrical demand peak      © Richard Perez, ASRC
100oF80oF60oF40oF20oF        © Richard Perez, ASRC
Northeast US – AUG 14th, 2003                                © Richard Perez, et al.
17:00 GMT   18:00 GMTAs little as 500 MW ofPV dispersed aroundthe major northeasterncities would haveprevented the blackou...
• Vast resource• Built-in smart grid capability• Energy breeder
30 yr life        © Richard Perez, et al.
© R. Perez & T. Hoff.
© R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Developer            © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Developer   Rate Payer                         © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Developer   Rate Payer   Tax Payer                             © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
Developer   Rate Payer   Tax PayerEQUIPMENT      COSTINCENTIVES     VALUEPRODUCTION     VALUETAX EFFECTS    VALUE         ...
Developer   Rate Payer   Tax PayerEQUIPMENT      COST        VALUE        VALUEINCENTIVES     VALUE                    COS...
¢/kWh      Developer      Rate Payer   Tax PayerEquipment   15 – 30 ¢/kWh    VALUE        VALUE                           ...
¢/kWh        Developer      Rate Payer   Tax PayerEquipment      15 – 30 ¢/kWh    VALUE        VALUETransmission          ...
¢/kWh        Developer      Rate Payer   Tax PayerEquipment      15 – 30 ¢/kWh    VALUE        VALUETransmission          ...
¢/kWh       Developer   Rate Payer   Tax Payer Equipment      15 - 30     VALUE        VALUETransmission                  ...
¢/kWh             Developer           Rate Payer             Tax Payer    Equipment             15 - 30            VALUE  ...
¢/kWh             Developer             Rate Payer               Tax Payer    Equipment             15 - 30               ...
STRESS REMOVAL                                          NO PV                                          PV at 10% Peak pene...
¢/kWh             Developer             Rate Payer               Tax Payer    Equipment             15 - 30               ...
¢/kWh           Developer   Rate Payer   Tax Payer    Equipment          15 - 30     VALUE        VALUE  Transmission     ...
¢/kWh           Developer   Rate Payer                           Tax Payer    Equipment          15 - 30     VALUE        ...
¢/kWh           Developer   Rate Payer   Tax Payer    Equipment          15 - 30     VALUE        VALUE  Transmission     ...
¢/kWh                Developer     Rate Payer             Tax Payer    Equipment               15 - 30         VALUE      ...
¢/kWh           Developer   Rate Payer   Tax Payer    Equipment          15 - 30     VALUE        VALUE  Transmission     ...
2016           2036       © Richard Perez, et al.
SOLAR2016                   2036               © Richard Perez, et al.
2016                            2036                                                                              DISCOUNT...
2016                            2036                                                                              DISCOUNT...
¢/kWh      Developer   Rate Payer   Tax Payer              Equipment       15 - 30     VALUE        VALUE            Trans...
¢/kWh      Developer   Rate Payer   Tax Payer              Equipment       15 - 30     VALUE        VALUE            Trans...
¢/kWh           Developer         Rate Payer   Tax Payer              Equipment             15 - 30            VALUE      ...
¢/kWh           Developer         Rate Payer   Tax Payer              Equipment             15 - 30            VALUE      ...
¢/kWh      Developer   Rate Payer   Tax Payer              Equipment       15 - 30     VALUE        VALUE            Trans...
Solar Generation                Firm capacity storage requirement   Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement   Bas...
Solar Generation                Firm capacity storage requirement   Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement   Bas...
Solar Penetration: 3%Solar Generation                Firm capacity storage requirement   Variable generationExcess PV stor...
5%Solar Generation                Firm capacity storage requirement   Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement   B...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage               8%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage r...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            10%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            13%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            15%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            18%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            20%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            23%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            25%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            28%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            30%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            33%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            35%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            38%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            40%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            43%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            45%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            48%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            50%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            53%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            55%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            58%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            60%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            63%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            65%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            68%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            70%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            73%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration = cost of storage            75%Solar Generation                        Firm capacity storage req...
Cost of high penetration << 5 cents/kWhFor penetration of up to 30% in New York                                           ...
¢/kWh      Developer    Rate Payer       Tax Payer              Equipment       15 - 30       VALUE           VALUE       ...
¢/kWh      Developer   Rate Payer           Tax Payer              Equipment       15 - 30     VALUE                VALUE ...
¢/kWh     Developer     Rate Payer           Tax Payer              Equipment   15 - 30     VALUE                     VALU...
¢/kWh     Developer     Rate Payer        Tax Payer              Equipment   15 - 30     VALUE                  VALUE     ...
¢/kWh            Developer   Rate Payer           Tax Payer              Equipment             15 - 30     VALUE          ...
¢/kWh            Developer   Rate Payer           Tax Payer              Equipment             15 - 30     VALUE          ...
¢/kWh      Developer   Rate Payer           Tax Payer              Equipment       15 - 30     VALUE                VALUE ...
¢/kWh      Developer   Rate Payer           Tax Payer              Equipment       15 - 30     VALUE                VALUE ...
Penetration costs << 5c/kWh                                                   30%       Solar Generation                Fi...
Penetration costs > 80 c/kWh                                                  75%       Solar Generation                Fi...
1. LOAD MANAGEMENT© Richard Perez, et al.
Solar Generation                Firm capacity storage requirement   Variable generation       Excess PV storage requiremen...
Solar Generation                Firm capacity storage requirement   Variable generation       Excess PV storage requiremen...
Solar Generation                Firm capacity storage requirement   Variable generation       Excess PV storage requiremen...
Solar Generation                Firm capacity storage requirement   Variable generation       Excess PV storage requiremen...
Solar Generation                Firm capacity storage requirement   Variable generation       Excess PV storage requiremen...
Solar Generation                Firm capacity storage requirement   Variable generation       Excess PV storage requiremen...
1. LOAD MANAGEMENT       2. STORAGE                                              metaefficient.com                        ...
1. LOAD MANAGEMENT       2. STORAGE       3. INTERCONNECTION© Richard Perez, et al.
© Richard Perez© Richard Perez, et al.
renewable                         finite                                                                                  ...
solar                             Coal     Natural Gas             WIND        Biomass                                    ...
Miles below the ocean floor lies enough oil to powerthe US for more than a decade……and perhaps our best shot at energy ind...
Miles below the ocean floor lies enough oil to powerthe US for more than a decade……and perhaps our best shot at energy ind...
Miles below the ocean floor lies enough oil to powerthe US for more than a decade……and perhaps our best shot at energy ind...
2010 PV Installations: 13.8 GW                                         Germany                                         Ita...
Rising Energy Intensity
GermanyItalyCzeh RepublicBelgiumFranceSpainJapanROWUSANew York
Richard Perez | SUNY Albany
Richard Perez | SUNY Albany
Richard Perez | SUNY Albany
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Richard Perez | SUNY Albany

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Transcript of "Richard Perez | SUNY Albany"

  1. 1. GWU SOLAR INSTITUTE SYMPOSIUM 4/26/2011 SOLAR GRID PARITY A value based perspective Richard Perez Ken Zweibel Tom Hoff
  2. 2. renewable finite 1,2 60-120 WIND per year Waves11,3 215 0.2-2 total SOLAR 10 Natural Gas 1,8 23,000 per year 3 -11 per year OTEC1,4 240 total Petroleum 1,8 2 – 6 per year2009 World energy use Biomass 1,516 TWy per year 3 – 4 per year 90-300 HYDRO 1,6 Total 0.3 – 2 per year TIDES 1 Geothermal1,7 0.3 per year 2050: 28 TW Uranium 1,9 900 Total reserve © R. Perez et al. COAL 1,8
  3. 3. renewable finite 1,2 60-120 WIND per year Waves11,3 215 0.2-2 total SOLAR 10 Natural Gas 1,8 23,000 per year 3 -11 per year OTEC1,4 240 total Petroleum 1,8 2 – 6 per year2009 World energy use Biomass 1,516 TWy per year 3 – 4 per year 90-300 HYDRO 1,6 Total 0.3 – 2 per year TIDES 1 Geothermal1,7 0.3 per year 2050: 28 TW Uranium 1,9 900 Total reserve © R. Perez et al. COAL 1,8
  4. 4. NEWSWEEKApril 4, 2011 © Richard Perez, et al.
  5. 5. • Vast resource• Built-in smart grid capability• Energy breeder
  6. 6. NGCC Hydro © Richard Perez, ASRC
  7. 7. Heat wave A/C electrical demand peak © Richard Perez, ASRC
  8. 8. Heat wave A/C electrical demand peak © Richard Perez, ASRC
  9. 9. 100oF80oF60oF40oF20oF © Richard Perez, ASRC
  10. 10. Northeast US – AUG 14th, 2003 © Richard Perez, et al.
  11. 11. 17:00 GMT 18:00 GMTAs little as 500 MW ofPV dispersed aroundthe major northeasterncities would haveprevented the blackoutAn investment of $ 3billion 19:00 GMT 20:00 GMTOutage cost $ 8 billion © Richard Perez, et al.
  12. 12. • Vast resource• Built-in smart grid capability• Energy breeder
  13. 13. 30 yr life © Richard Perez, et al.
  14. 14. © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  15. 15. © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  16. 16. Developer © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  17. 17. Developer Rate Payer © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  18. 18. Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  19. 19. Developer Rate Payer Tax PayerEQUIPMENT COSTINCENTIVES VALUEPRODUCTION VALUETAX EFFECTS VALUE © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  20. 20. Developer Rate Payer Tax PayerEQUIPMENT COST VALUE VALUEINCENTIVES VALUE COSTPRODUCTION VALUE COSTTAX EFFECTS VALUE COST © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  21. 21. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax PayerEquipment 15 – 30 ¢/kWh VALUE VALUE © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  22. 22. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax PayerEquipment 15 – 30 ¢/kWh VALUE VALUETransmission 3 - 11 Energy © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  23. 23. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax PayerEquipment 15 – 30 ¢/kWh VALUE VALUETransmission 6 - 11 Energy © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  24. 24. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUETransmission 6 - 11 EnergyTransmission 0-5 Capacity © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  25. 25. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 CapacityDistribution Energy 0–1 Distribution System Customer Customer Customer Customer Customer © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  26. 26. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 CapacityDistribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Distribution System Customer Customer Customer Customer Transformer Substation Customer © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  27. 27. STRESS REMOVAL NO PV PV at 10% Peak penetration 8760 hours 8760 hours Electrical consumption for one year Customer Customer Customer Customer Transformer Substation© R. Perez & T. Hoff. Customer
  28. 28. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 CapacityDistribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0 - 3+ Capacity Distribution System Customer Customer Customer Customer Transformer Substation Customer © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  29. 29. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 CapacityDistribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation © Richard Perez, et al.
  30. 30. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 CapacityDistribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement US-Wide cost of outages: $100- 200 billion per year* 5-10% mitigated by PV *Gellings, C. W., and K. Yeager, (2004): Transforming the electric infrastructure. Physics Today, Dec. 2004. © Richard Perez, et al.
  31. 31. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 CapacityDistribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health © Richard Perez, et al.
  32. 32. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 CapacityDistribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Coal generation cost: 9-25 cents per KWh Grid Security Non-shale natural gas: 3-6 cents per kWh 2-3 enhancement GHG mitigation alone: 2 – 100 cents per KWh Environment & Given New York and neighboring states energy mix >>> 3-6 Health © noliesradio.org © Richard Perez, et al.
  33. 33. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 CapacityDistribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 HealthLong term societal value © Richard Perez, et al.
  34. 34. 2016 2036 © Richard Perez, et al.
  35. 35. SOLAR2016 2036 © Richard Perez, et al.
  36. 36. 2016 2036 DISCOUNT RATE The weight of future events on present decision making is discounted • Use a societal discount rate of 2% e.g., at 9% an event 30 years in the future • Conservatively assume a 2.5 increase on commodities over 30 years is worth only 5% of its future value.© Richard Perez, et al.
  37. 37. 2016 2036 DISCOUNT RATE The weight of future events on present decision making is discounted • Use a societal discount rate of 2% e.g., at 9% an event 30 years in the future • Conservatively assume a 2.5 increase on commodities over 30 years is worth only 5% of its future value.© Richard Perez, et al.
  38. 38. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value© Richard Perez, et al.
  39. 39. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth© Richard Perez, et al.
  40. 40. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid SecurityGermany & Ontario Experience: 2-3 enhancement • Solar implies more jobs than Environment & conventional energy 3-6 Health • 10 times per kWh Long -term • 2.5 sustained jobs per MW 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth Reduced unemployment, Enhanced confidence conducive to business development Increased tax revenues© Richard Perez, et al.
  41. 41. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid SecurityGermany & Ontario Experience: 2-3 enhancement • Solar implies more jobs than Environment & conventional energy 3-6 Health • 10 times per kWh Long -term • 2.5 sustained jobs per MW 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth Reduced unemployment, 3+ Enhanced confidence conducive to business development Increased tax revenues $$© Richard Perez, et al.
  42. 42. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High penetration© Richard Perez, et al.
  43. 43. Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold 20 day sample of Summer New York City electrical load © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  44. 44. Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold VARIABLE LOAD GENERATION BASE LOAD GENERATION © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  45. 45. Solar Penetration: 3%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  46. 46. 5%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  47. 47. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 8%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  48. 48. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 10%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  49. 49. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 13%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  50. 50. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 15%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  51. 51. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 18%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  52. 52. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 20%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  53. 53. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 23%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  54. 54. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 25%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  55. 55. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 28%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  56. 56. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 30%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  57. 57. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 33%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  58. 58. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 35%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  59. 59. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 38%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  60. 60. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 40%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  61. 61. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 43%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  62. 62. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 45%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  63. 63. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 48%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  64. 64. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 50%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  65. 65. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 53%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  66. 66. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 55%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  67. 67. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 58%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  68. 68. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 60%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  69. 69. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 63%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  70. 70. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 65%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  71. 71. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 68%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  72. 72. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 70%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  73. 73. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 73%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  74. 74. Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 75%Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generationExcess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  75. 75. Cost of high penetration << 5 cents/kWhFor penetration of up to 30% in New York © R. Perez & T. Hoff.
  76. 76. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High Penetration 0 – 5 up to 30%© Richard Perez, et al.
  77. 77. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High Penetration 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41© Richard Perez, et al.
  78. 78. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE UNACCOUNTED VALUE ITEMS: Transmission 6 - 11 Energy • Solar useful life >>30 years 0 - 5 Transmission Capacity • Reduction of international tensions and Distribution Energy 0-1 military expense required secure ever more Distribution limited energy paths into the US Capacity 0-3 • Dispersed energy resource is3 inherently more Fuel Price -5 Mitigation secure Grid Security • Economic growth beyond tax revenues 2-3 enhancement Environment & • Government incentives for fossil and nuclear 3 - 6 Health resources Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High Penetration 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41© Richard Perez, et al.
  79. 79. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE UNACCOUNTED VALUE ITEMS: Transmission 6 - 11 Energy • Solar useful life >>30 years 0 - 5 Transmission Capacity • Reduction of international tensions and Distribution Energy 0-1 military expense required secure ever more Distribution limited energy paths into the US Capacity 0-3 • Dispersed energy resource is3 inherently more Fuel Price -5 Mitigation secure Grid Security • Economic growth beyond tax revenues 2-3 enhancement Environment & • Government incentives for fossil and nuclear 3 - 6 Health resources Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High Penetration 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41 ++© Richard Perez, et al.
  80. 80. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission Net meter 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy RECs 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Grants Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Tax effects Grid Security Auctions 2-3 enhancement Environment & FIT 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ Penetration Cost 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41© Richard Perez, et al.
  81. 81. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission Net meter 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy RECs 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Grants Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Tax effects Grid Security Auctions 2-3 enhancement Environment & FIT 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ Penetration Cost 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41© Richard Perez, et al.
  82. 82. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High Penetration 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41© Richard Perez, et al.
  83. 83. ¢/kWh Developer Rate Payer Tax Payer Equipment 15 - 30 VALUE VALUE Transmission 6 - 11 Energy Transmission 0-5 Capacity Distribution Energy 0-1 Distribution 0-3 Capacity Fuel Price 3-5 Mitigation Grid Security 2-3 enhancement Environment & 3-6 Health Long -term 3-4 Societal Value Economic Growth 3+ High Penetration 0-5 TOTAL 15 - 30 15 – 41© Richard Perez, et al.
  84. 84. Penetration costs << 5c/kWh 30% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.© Richard Perez, et al.
  85. 85. Penetration costs > 80 c/kWh 75% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold © R. Perez & T. Hoff.© Richard Perez, et al.
  86. 86. 1. LOAD MANAGEMENT© Richard Perez, et al.
  87. 87. Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold© Richard Perez, et al.
  88. 88. Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold© Richard Perez, et al.
  89. 89. Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold© Richard Perez, et al.
  90. 90. Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold© Richard Perez, et al.
  91. 91. Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold© Richard Perez, et al.
  92. 92. Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold© Richard Perez, et al.
  93. 93. 1. LOAD MANAGEMENT 2. STORAGE metaefficient.com Flow batteries pangeaexploration.com Compressed air© Richard Perez, et al.
  94. 94. 1. LOAD MANAGEMENT 2. STORAGE 3. INTERCONNECTION© Richard Perez, et al.
  95. 95. © Richard Perez© Richard Perez, et al.
  96. 96. renewable finite 1,2 70-120 WIND per year Waves11,3 215 0.2-2 total SOLAR 10 Natural Gas 1,8 23,000 per year 3 -11 per year OTEC1,4 240 total Petroleum 1,8 2 – 6 per year 2009 World energy use Biomass 1,5 16 TWy per year 3 – 4 per year 90-300 HYDRO 1,6 Total 0.3 – 2 per year TIDES 1 Geothermal1,7 0.3 per year 2050: 28 TW Uranium 1,9 900 Total reserve © R. Perez et al. COAL 1,8© Richard Perez, et al.
  97. 97. solar Coal Natural Gas WIND Biomass PetroleumUranium © Richard Perez
  98. 98. Miles below the ocean floor lies enough oil to powerthe US for more than a decade……and perhaps our best shot at energy independenceNewsweek March 22, 2010
  99. 99. Miles below the ocean floor lies enough oil to powerthe US for more than a decade……and perhaps our best shot at energy independenceNewsweek March 22, 2010
  100. 100. Miles below the ocean floor lies enough oil to powerthe US for more than a decade……and perhaps our best shot at energy independenceNewsweek March 22, 2010
  101. 101. 2010 PV Installations: 13.8 GW Germany Italy Czeh Republic Belgium France Spain Japan ROW USA New York© Richard Perez, et al.
  102. 102. Rising Energy Intensity
  103. 103. GermanyItalyCzeh RepublicBelgiumFranceSpainJapanROWUSANew York

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