Minh Le | DOE Solar Program

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Visit the Solar Institute for details of the 2011 Solar Symposium: solar.gwu.edu/Symposium.html

Visit the Solar Institute for details of the 2011 Solar Symposium: solar.gwu.edu/Symposium.html

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  • Very effective presentation. Thanks. Like to see 2011 Q3 update on this please as the prices have come down more than 20% in this year alone.
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  • 1. SOLAR ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES PROGRAM Minh LeSunShot: Chief Engineer Solar Energy Technologies ProgramThe Apollo Mission of Our Times U.S. Department of Energy minh.le@ee.doe.govU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 1
  • 2. Imagine a World… What if this is a reality? Solar electricity infrastructure with an LCOE of 5-6 ¢/kWh, without subsidies, broadly across the United States  Jobs and Competitiveness: Innovation that ensures the U.S. leads the way on clean energy, supporting new jobs and opportunities for Americans  National Energy Security: Independence from fossil fuel and increased national security  Healthy Environment: Huge carbon reduction and cleaner airU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 2
  • 3. And U.S. competitiveness for international PV market share and green jobs is at risk Global & U.S. Annual PV Shipments by Region 2009 Module Shipment 50% 16,000 (by Manufacturer) 1995: 43% Our Sputnik Moment 14,000 40% First SolarU.S. Market Share Percentage 1,057 MW 12,000 PV Module Shipments (MW) Other 2,638 MW Suntech 672 MW 2000: 27% 10,000 30% Sharp Solar 570 MW 8,000 Yingli 525 MW ROW 20% 6,000 China & Taiwan Motech 338 MW Europe Q-Cells 4,000 518 MW Japan Kyocera 340 MW Trina JA Solar 10% 2010*: 7% 399 MW 509 MW U.S. SunPower 2,000 347 MW U.S. Share •Note: 2010* are preliminary data. News (3/2001), 2001-2004: PV News (3/2006), 0% 0 2005-2010*: Navigant Consulting (2/2011). •Sources: 2009 Module Shipment: Navigant Consulting 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* Global & Annual PV Shipments by Region: (4/2010). 1990-92 : PV News (2/1993), 1993-2000: PV U.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 3
  • 4. The U.S. has one of the strongest solar resources in the world – but lags in deployment Cumulative Installed PV (through 2009) Italy 1,167 MW China 305 MW France 272 MW Rest of E.U. 1,333 MW U.S. 1,650 MW Germany 9,785 MW Rest of World 2,374 MW Japan 2,633 MW Spain 3,386 MWU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program 4 Slide 4
  • 5. SunShot Initiative: Apollo mission of our time Moon Shot SunShot “We choose to go to the moon in this decade Solar energy to be cost competitive and do the other things, not because they are with fossil fuels without subsidies by easy, but because they are hard…. the end of the decade “Because that challenge is one that we are Working with US industry, national labs willing to accept, one we are unwilling to and academia to innovate and to lay the postpone, and one which we intend to win….” foundation for a subsidy-free solar – September 12, 1962 electricity infrastructure across the U.S.U.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 5
  • 6. Widespread U.S. Adoption ofSolar Energy Technologies Reference Case SunShot $1/Watt Case 2030 Utility PV (GW) < 0.1 0.1 - 1 1-5 5 - 10 10 - 20 20 – 30 > 30 • Cost target for widespread (unsubsidized) U.S. adoption would be empowered by fundamental innovations that: – Reduce costs across the full technology pipeline, – Support advances in both existing and new PV technologies, and – Promote investor confidence through long-term policies’ • Successful U.S. market for solar will help create a clean energy economy, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and helping prevent climate changeU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 6
  • 7. U.S. Energy Production and Consumption2009 U.S. Energy Production: 73.6 Quadrillion Btu Natural Gas 33% Crude Oil 15% U.S. Renewable Energy Production: 5.1 Quadrillion Btu Renewable Energy 7% Nuclear % 13 % , % So % 79 11% ind ,2 7 s, al, lar W as m om er Coal Hydropower oth Bi Ge 30% 4% U.S. Energy Consumption: 94.8 Quadrillion Btu Crude Oil Nuclear 37% 9% Hydropower U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption: 5.1 Quadrillion Btu 3% Renewable Energy 5% 3% % 2% 9% 7 ,1 al, r, ind 7 la rm s, So W as he om ot Ge Bi Natural Gas Coal 25% 21% Source: EIAU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 7
  • 8. Costs of PV modules have followed avery strong cost reduction trend Solar PV Experience Curves: Leading Technologies: Crystalline Silicon (c-Si), Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) Source: (CdTe) First Solar Earnings Presentation, SEC Filings; (c-Si) Navigant, Bloomberg NEF, NREL internal cost models • Past progress may not be a reliable indicator of future performanceU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 8
  • 9. Reaching cost targets will requireadvances in all PV system components Utility System with $1/W Goal Estimates do not include the cost of land. Hardware costs include power electronics and mounting. Non-hardware costs include permitting, installation, etc.U.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 9
  • 10. PV system cost reduction areasU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 10
  • 11. Approach to 50¢/W modules:CIGS example $3.50 $ Manufacturing Cost ∝ $3.00 Watt Efficiency $2.50 $2.00 $/WDC $3.50 $1.50 $0.42 $0.28 $1.00 $1.70 $0.28 $0.22 $0.50 $0.50 $0.00 2008 2010 Manufacturing Jsc Voc FF $1/W Target Cost ReductionU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 11
  • 12. Barriers-based investments:Manufacturing cost – CIGS example Cost Drivers Reduction Pathways Technical Risk Potential Materials cost and availability High Medium Thinner layers or replacement with (Indium, selenium, cadmium) Earth abundant and benign materials (e.g., CZTS, ZnS, …) Transparent Conductors High Low ITO alternative materials and/or deposition methodologies Large scale spatial uniformity High Medium Improved in-situ metrology, thermal and improved throughput control, and elimination of chemical with same or lower cost of bath CdS capital Glass and/or Encapsulants Medium Medium Flexible low-cost front and backsheets with low WVTR (i.e., ultrabarriers, glass replacement) Operational costs of Medium Medium Eliminate batch selenization, alternative selenization ovens deposition methodologies (e.g., atmospheric deposition).U.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 12
  • 13. Barriers-based investments:Cell and module efficiency η ∝ J SC ⋅VOC ⋅ FF EfficiencyU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 13
  • 14. Barriers-based investments:Efficiency – CIGS example η ∝ J SC ⋅VOC ⋅ FF Potential Technical Current Pathways Action Risk Increase (mA/cm2) Larger band gap junction 2.5 Medium Replace CdS (e.g. 2.5 eV) with wide partner bandgap emitter (i.e., ZnS (3.1 eV)) Improved TCO 1.5 Medium Develop TCO with high conductivity, transparency, environmental stability (i.e., a-InZnO) Reduce CdS window 1.5 Medium Develop 20 nm thick continuous CdS layer thickness layer without shunting. Minimize reflection off 1.5 Medium Develop a suitable low cost anti- CIGS surface reflection coating Improved monolithic 1 Low Reduce line width of laser/mechanical integration scribingU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 14
  • 15. SunShot system development plan Technologies not ready Final phase may include for integration teams may down select competition continue in development for large scale deployment on Government facility. VERTICALLY INTEGRATED TEAMS (based on road maps)U.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 15
  • 16. SunShot portfolio – current & upcoming 1 TRL (Technology Readiness Level) 9 Basic Energy PV Incubator Solar Solar America Sciences Demonstration Cities Supply Chain Zone Transformational Codes and Next Generation Balance of Systems-Hardware High Standards Penetration Foundational PV Manufacturing Initiative Workforce Program to $1/W Systems Development Advance Cell Power Electronics Efficiency (PACE) Module State/Utility SEGIS Performance Engagement SunShot CSP Components and Storage Accelerator Fellowships Large-scale DeploymentU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 16
  • 17. Basic Energy Sciences and the long-term futureof SunShot – TRL 1Basic Energy Sciences (BES) – basic research – Fundamental scientific understanding of new solar electric materials and concepts – Complementary to, but well-differentiated from, the EERE Solar ProgramEnergy Frontier Research Centers (EFRCs) – 13 of 46 are focused on solar – many on OPVPipeline basic research into applied research – Bridge from Science to Technology will support research at EFRCs that have matured to applied researchU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 17
  • 18. EERE / SunShot Postdoctoral FellowshipsDevelop the next generation of scientific Fellowship Duration (years)leaders 1 (renewable for 2nd year) – EERE research topic areas include: Fellowship Award ($) – Position postdocs for faculty-level research $65k stipend + benefits + ORISE Admin = $105k positions at universities and national labs Approx. Annual Cost to DOE ($) for 20 fellows – Graduate fellowships are a future possibility ~$1M (~5 postdocs) – Modeled after NSF, DoD, NIH, and Office of Science fellowships ~$400k (~2 postdocs) ~$200k (~1 postdoc)20% Innovation Time – A unique fellowshipopportunity ~$400k (~2 postdocs) – Fellows pursue innovative self- ~$200k (~1 postdoc) directed projects in addition to designated research project ~$800k (~4 postdocs) – Modeled after Google and HP ~$200k (~1 postdoc) ~$400k (~2 postdocs)Also: SunShot Policy Fellowships ~$400k (~2 postdocs) – Fellows help design, manage, and assess new Objective Solar Program funding opportunities Develop the next generation of scientific leaders in Energy Efficiency and Renewable EnergyU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 18
  • 19. Energy Efficiency and Renewable EnergyPostdoctoral FellowshipsDevelop the next generation of scientific leaders Fellowship Duration (years) – EERE research topic areas – examples include: 1 (renewable for 2nd year) • New PV materials, phenomena, and processes Fellowship Award ($) • Structure-activity relationship models for batteries $65k stipend + benefits + $20K research allowance • Characterization of advanced hydrogen storage Approx. Annual Cost to DOE ($) for 20 fellows materials ~$1M (~5 postdocs) • And others… – Applicant (U.S. citizen) finds research mentor ~$400k (~2 postdocs) and writes joint proposal ~$200k (~1 postdoc) – Positions postdocs for faculty-level research ~$400k (~2 postdocs) positions at universities and national labs ~$200k (~1 postdoc)20% Innovation Time – A unique fellowship ~$800k (~4 postdocs)opportunity ~$200k (~1 postdoc) – Fellows pursue innovative self-directed projects in addition to mentored research project ~$400k (~2 postdocs) – Modeled after Google and HP ~$400k (~2 postdocs) Objective Develop the next generation of scientific leaders in APPLICATIONS DUE JUNE 30,2011 Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energyhttp://www1.eere.energy.gov/education/postdoctoral_fellowships/U.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 19
  • 20. SunShot Initiative Policy FellowshipsMotivated young scientists and engineersimplementing national energy policy – SunShot Initiative announced by DOE Secretary Steven Chu in conjunction with the President’s 2011 State of the Union address – Modeled on the AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellowships and the ARPA-E Fellowship – Targets rising Ph.D. candidates and recent gradsSunShot Policy Fellows: – Work in Washington, D.C. at DOE Headquarters – Develop a deep understanding of solar energy science and technology, and of the solar industry Fellowship Duration (years) – Help design, manage, assess, and prioritize new 1 (renewable for 2nd year) solar energy funding opportunities Fellowship Award ($) Salary for Ph.D. start at $75K + benefits Objective APPLICATIONS ACCEPTED ON A Bring motivated young scientists and engineers to Washington to help achieve the SunShot Initiative ROLLING BASIS http://www1.eere.energy.gov/education/stp_fellowships.htmlU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 20
  • 21. Transformational PV Science and Technology: Next Gen PV II – TRL 2-3 • Exceeding the Shockley-Queisser limit PERFORMANCE • Overcoming the Staebler-Wronski effect • Advanced light trapping • Novel earth-abundant PV materials • Biomimetic PV concepts • ??? TIME Contract Duration (years)• Bridge gap between basic and applied 4 years with stage gate at year 2 research Max Contract Award ($) – Solar energy science  PV technology solutions $1.5M ($375k/yr for 4 yrs) – Demonstrate proof-of-concept in a PV device or component Approx. Annual Cost to DOE ($)• Seed the technology pipeline with high payoff $10M (13 new awards every 2 years) long-term projects Cost Share Minimum – Jump learning curves – Revolutionary & disruptive 0% – Accelerate to SunShot targets Objective• Support innovative researchers 4 years with stage gate at year 2U.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 21
  • 22. Foundational Program to Advance Cell Efficiency (F-PACE) – TRL 2-4• Close the PV efficiency gaps – Significant potential – esp. for thin film PV – Scientific foundation for overcoming technical barriers – Improved understanding of materials and devices• Position technology for $0.50/W modules Topic 1 Topic 2 Topic 3 (Sub-cell) (Cell level) (Barrier Focus Teams) – Will feed into Module Contract Duration (years) Performance Accelerator 3• Collaborate with NSF Max Contract Award ($) – Engineering Directorate $1.5M ($1M typical) $1.5M $6M will provide $6M in funds Approx. Annual Cost to DOE ($) – Academic physical sciences ~$3M, (~9 Awards) ~$4M, (~8 Awards) ~$4-8M (~2-4 awards) researchers Objective Scientific advances in Cell level foundational Teams with very high materials, device, and research closing the gaps level of focus on process research between theoretical, lab, overcoming barriers to & production efficiencies improved performanceU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 22
  • 23. $1/W PV Incubator – TRL 3-5 Sample awardees: Alta Devices• Foster domestic innovation & growth Tier 1 (Prototype) Tier 2 (Pilot Line) – New technologies – clearly differentiated Contract Duration (years) – Commercial potential – market entry by 2015 – Laboratory-scale proof-of-concept  prototype 1 1.5  pilot production Max Contract Award ($)• Help start-up companies overcome first $1M $4M “Valley of Death” Approx. Annual Cost to DOE ($) – Access NREL’s expertise and resources – Fixed firm pricing contracts – clear milestones ~$3M, (~3 Awards) ~$9M, (~3 Awards)• Spur private investment Objective – Since 2007, $59M in DOE funds have leveraged Accelerate transition of a Proof Scale-up Prototype to Pilot over $1.2B in private capital of Concept to Prototype Scale Production – Frequent solicitationsU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 23
  • 24. PV Supply Chain andCross-Cutting Technologies – TRL 4-6 Sample awardees: Contract Duration (years) High Impact Technologies 3 – Cost reductions & performance improvements with Max Contract Award ($) broad application $5M ($3.5M Typical) – Strengthen the entire domestic supply chain Approx. Annual Cost to DOE ($) Commercial impact in 2-5 years ≈$7M, (~6 awards) – Accelerate towards module cost-competitiveness Objective – Directly drop-in to current manufacturing processes Broad based industry wide impactU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 24
  • 25. SunShot Advanced ManufacturingPartnerships – TRL 4-6Coordinated hubs with critical mass Topic 1 (Academia) Topic 2 (Industry) Contract Duration (years)Strengthen U.S. PV manufacturing & 5supply chain: • Directly engage industry Max Contract Award ($) $25M $100M • Catalyze industry collaboration – pool resources and talent Approx. Annual Cost to DOE ($) • Link universities and national labs to industry $5M, (1-2 Awards) $20M, (1-3 Awards) • Speed and reduce the cost of innovation Minimum Cost Share (%) – manufacturing & process technologies 20% 50%Leverage industry & regional funds ObjectiveEstablish financial self-sufficiency Advance technologies with near Manufacturing pilot line scale term impact on US manufacturing development of new technologiesU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 25
  • 26. U.S. PV manufacturing and industrialscale-up – new approaches? Loan Guarantee Program • U.S. manufacturing is moving overseas, enticed by access to capital • Building domestic manufacturing – Scaling from 1-10 MW to 50MW – Scaling from 50MW to 250 MW • Gaps (supply side) – Access to expansion capital – Validation of off-take for bankability • Maximize impact by leveraging state and private investments?U.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 26
  • 27. Concentrating Solar Power also haspathway to cost-competitiveness Troughs Towers DishesU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 27
  • 28. Vision for the Future DOE’s Solar Program efforts to accelerate the research, development and deployment of solar energy: • Working to reduce carbon emissions and create clean energy jobs • Aggressively funding research and discovery of fundamentally new technologies • Fueling the growth of the solar market by supporting strategic partnershipsU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 29
  • 29. Thank You Contact Information: Minh Le Chief Engineer U.S. Department of Energy Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program Email: minh.le@ee.doe.gov Phone: 202-287-1372 On the web: http://www.solar.energy.govU.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 30