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Lushetsky - Solar Vision Forum

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John Lushetsky, Program Manager of the Solar Energy Technologies Program at the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, presented on April 19, 2010 at the GW Solar Institute Second …

John Lushetsky, Program Manager of the Solar Energy Technologies Program at the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, presented on April 19, 2010 at the GW Solar Institute Second Annual Symposium. more information at http://solar.gwu.edu/Symposium.html

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  • In Northeast, Hudson Valley will cover only PV and Kennebec Valley will cover only SHC
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    • 1. Challenges to Solar as a Leading Solution to Climate and Energy Problems
      George Washington University Solar Institute | April 19, 2010
      John LushetskyProgram ManagerSolar Energy Technologies ProgramU.S. Department of Energy
    • 2. Challenges to Solar
      Costs
      Hardware
      Installation and other soft costs
      Access to land, transmission, and financing
      Grid Integration
      2
    • 3. SETP is focused on enabling high penetration of solar energy technologies
      Slide 3
      3
    • 4. Solar Vision Study
      Goals of the study
      Evaluate the technical, economic, and environmental feasibility of meeting 10-20% of electricity demand from solar energy technologies by 2030; and
      Identify technology Research, Development, Demonstration, Deployment (RD3) and Policy options that could be employed to help achieve this vision.
      Scope of Study
      Includes PV (central and distributed), CSP, and Solar Water Heating/Cooling.
      Committee Members and Working Group
      Over 100 participants from Industry, National Labs, and DOE
      Scheduled for release in mid-2010
    • 5. Residential PV: LCOE Targets
      2015
      • With the 30% ITC, PV is broadly competitive with residential electricity rates.
      • 6. Without the ITC, PV is broadly competitive under all conditions except that with the most expensive financing and worst insolation.
      2030
      • Without the ITC, PV has levelized costs that are lower than most residential electricity rates.
      • 7. Standard financial assumptions overestimate LCOE due to combination of tax effects and higher cost of capital than in the market.
      * No state, local or utility incentives are included. The range in residential PV LCOE is due to different insolation and financing conditions. For a complete list of assumptions, see DOE Solar Cost Targets (2009 – 2030), in process.
      ‡ The electricity rate range represents one standard deviation below and above the mean U.S. residential electricity prices.
      $ The system is located in Phoenix, AZ and financed with a real cost of capital of 7.0%. The capital recovery factor does not take into account the ITC or financing tax preferences.
    • 8. Utility PV: LCOE Targets
      2015
      • With the 30% ITC, PV is broadly competitive with wholesale electricity rates.
      • 9. With the 10% ITC, PV is equal to or below the CA MPR and competitive with high wholesale electricity rates under the best insolation and financing conditions
      2030
      • With the 10% ITC, PV is broadly competitive with wholesale electricity rates.
      • 10. Standard financial assumptions yield LCOE estimates that are towards the high end of the program’s range due to excluding the 10% ITC and depreciation
      * Assumes IOU or IPP ownership of PV, and thus the LCOE includes the taxes paid on electricity generated. Includes 5-year MACRS but not state or local incentives. The range in utility PV LCOE is due to different insolation and financing conditions. For a complete list of assumptions, see DOE Solar Cost Targets (2009 – 2030), in process.
      ‡ The electricity rate range represents one standard deviation below and above the mean U.S. wholesale electricity prices.
      § The 2009 CA MPR includes adjustments by utility for the time of delivery profile of solar (low case: SDG&E, mid case: PG&E, high case: SCE).
    • 11. Historical and Projected PV Learning Curve
    • 12. Reaching Grid Parity Targets will require advances in all system components
    • 13. Solar Instructor Training Network$27M over 5 years
      Slide 9
      Kennebec Valley Community College
      Supporting the training for up to 1400 instructors, resulting in a projected capacity to train up to 170,000 students
      Midwest Renewable Energy Association
      Hudson Valley Community College
      California Community Colleges Board of Governors, California Energy Commission, California Centers for Sustainable Energy, the Labor Management Cooperation Committee
      Salt Lake Community College; Solar Energy International; Utah Solar Energy Association
      Pennsylvania State University
      North Carolina Solar Center at NCSU
      Activities:
      • Sponsor instructors at “train the trainer” workshops and equip labs
      • 14. Create and modify curricula and align them to highest standards
      • 15. Create replicable training models for local instructors
      • 16. Use innovative approaches such as online tools and mobile labs
      • 17. Leverage resources and share best practices
      REGIONS:
      Northeast
      Northern Mid-Atlantic
      Southern Mid-Atlantic
      Southeast
      Midwest
      South-Central
      Rocky Mountain
      California/Hawaii
      Providers
      Partnership
      The Energy Institute at HCC - Northeast
      Florida Solar Energy Center at UCF
    • 18. Slide 10
      25 Solar America Cities Partnerships
    • 19. Solar Guide for Local GovernmentsPublished in July 2009
      Slide 11
      Solar Powering Your Community: A Guide for Local Governments
      Provides policy and program descriptions, implementation tips and options, and real life examples in areas of:
      Organizing and strategizing efforts
      Accelerating demand through policies and incentives
      Updating and enforcing local rules and regulations
      Engaging utilities
      Creating jobs and supporting economic development
      Accelerating demand through outreach and education
      Leading by example with installations on government properties
      www.solaramericacities.energy.gov/resources
    • 20. Utility CSP: LCOE Targets
      2015
      • With the 30% ITC, CSP is below the CA MPR under all conditions and competitive with high wholesale electricity rates under the best financing conditions
      • 21. With the 10% ITC, CSP is equal to the CA MPR under almost all conditions
      2030
      • With the 10% ITC, CSP is broadly competitive with wholesale electricity rates under all conditions
      • 22. Standard financial assumptions overestimate LCOE due to excluding the 10% ITC and depreciation, and higher capital intensiveness.
      CSP LCOE with standardized financial assumptions
      * Assumes IOU or IPP ownership of CSP, and thus the LCOE includes the taxes paid on electricity generated. Includes 5-year MACRS but not state or local incentives. The range in utility CSP LCOE is due to different technologies, capacity factors and financing conditions. For a complete list of assumptions, see DOE Solar Cost Targets (2009 – 2030), in process.
      ‡ The electricity rate range represents one standard deviation below and above the mean U.S. wholesale electricity prices.
      § The 2009 CA MPR includes adjustments by utility for the time of delivery profile of solar (low case: SDG&E, mid case: PG&E, high case: SCE).
    • 23. CSP Signature Concept
      Slide 13
      Small Demonstrations – Phase I
      • 4 to 6 demonstration plants 1-10 MW each – approximately 30 MW total
      • 24. Demonstrations of operating facilities fully representative of utility-scale systems.
      • 25. Project selected based on technology performance and cost and environmental benefit evaluated by qualified engineering and financial companies.
      • 26. Projects will be privately owned and supported by government funding.
      Full Scale Demonstrations – Phase II
      • Successful Phase I demonstrations qualify for a site in Solar Demonstration Zone to be identified by DOE based on multiple factors including environmental and commercial viability.
      • 27. Successful demonstrations may qualify for DOE Loan Guarantee.
      • 28. Site planning and infrastructure and transmission arranged under DOE leadership.
      • 29. Environmental studies will be completed by DOE/BLM.
    • Grid Integration Issues
      High Variability due to clouds
      PV Variability (ramp rates)
      Understanding PV output vs. geographic diversity
      Solar Forecasting (scheduling other generation)
      Need better models for large-scale PV at the transmission level
      Both CAISO and Hawaii Utilities (HECO, MECO, and HELCO) have proposed new rules on solar installations to address concerns about grid disruptions
      • CAISO – Interconnection Standards Review Initiative – Draft Straw-man Proposal
      • 30. Hawaii – Rule 14h (Docket #2010-0015) and Feed-In-Tariff (Docket #2008-0273)
      These rules could limit market penetration of distributed and centralized solar
    • 31. High Penetration Solar Deployment
      Arizona Public Service Company - Study the impacts of 1.5 MW of photovoltaic (PV) generation connected to a typical residential feeder
      Commonwealth Edison Company - Evaluate consumer reactions when a utility provides advanced metering and price signals for electric power with PV, without PV, and with both PV and energy storage
      Florida State University - Identify the need for technical solutions to address any issues identified with high-penetration levels of grid-connected photovoltaics including protection, control strategies, and technologies
      National Renewable Energy Laboratory - Utilize modeling and simulation, laboratory testing, and field demonstrations to determine the effect of high penetrations of up to 500 MW of mostly commercial scale rooftop PV systems on electrical distribution systems
      Sacramento Municipal Utility District - Determine the value of advanced metering infrastructure, PV, and the additional value of storage
      University of California San Diego - Develop advanced modeling tools and electric power control strategies to optimize electric power value and to mitigate the impact of PV-sourced electricity on existing microgrids and the SmartGrid
      Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University - Evaluate both existing and prototype power conditioners designed at Virginia Tech to identify cost-effective approaches to address issues associated with high-penetration PV systems
    • 32. Solar Vision StudyPreliminary Key Messages & Insights
      For both 10% and 20% scenarios, major technology breakthroughs are not required for PV and CSP.
      10% scenario is achievable with the current electricity infrastructure; 20% scenario would require significant transmission expansion and grid operations advancement.
      Siting poses significant, but not insurmountable, challenges to achieving the 20% scenario.
      Financing growth on supply chain/corporate side is not an issue, however, on the project side will need to move beyond tax equity markets to meet targets.
      Slide 16
      Preliminary Results
      Not for official release
    • 33. Thank You
      John LushetskyProgram ManagerSolar Energy Technologies ProgramU.S. Department of Energy
      john.lushetsky@ee.doe.gov
      202-287-1685
      www.solar.energy.gov
      17