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Challenges to Solar as a Leading Solution to Climate and Energy Problems<br />George Washington University Solar Institute...
Challenges to Solar<br />Costs<br />Hardware<br />Installation and other soft costs<br />Access to land, transmission, and...
SETP is focused on enabling high penetration of solar energy technologies<br /> Slide 3<br />3<br />
Solar Vision Study<br />Goals of the study<br />Evaluate the technical, economic, and environmental feasibility of meeting...
Residential PV: LCOE Targets<br />2015<br /><ul><li>With the 30% ITC, PV is broadly competitive with residential electrici...
Without the ITC, PV is broadly competitive under all conditions except that with the most expensive financing and worst in...
Standard financial assumptions overestimate LCOE due to combination of tax effects and higher cost of capital than in the ...
Utility PV: LCOE Targets<br />2015<br /><ul><li>With the 30% ITC, PV is broadly competitive with wholesale electricity rates.
With the 10% ITC, PV is equal to or below the CA MPR and competitive with high wholesale electricity rates under the best ...
Standard financial assumptions yield LCOE estimates that are  towards the high end of the program’s range due to excluding...
Historical  and Projected PV Learning Curve<br />
Reaching Grid Parity Targets will require advances in all system components<br />
Solar Instructor Training Network$27M over 5 years <br /> Slide 9<br />Kennebec Valley Community College<br />Supporting t...
Create and modify curricula and align them to highest standards
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Lushetsky - Solar Vision Forum

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John Lushetsky, Program Manager of the Solar Energy Technologies Program at the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, presented on April 19, 2010 at the GW Solar Institute Second Annual Symposium. more information at http://solar.gwu.edu/Symposium.html

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  • In Northeast, Hudson Valley will cover only PV and Kennebec Valley will cover only SHC
  • Transcript of "Lushetsky - Solar Vision Forum"

    1. 1. Challenges to Solar as a Leading Solution to Climate and Energy Problems<br />George Washington University Solar Institute | April 19, 2010<br />John LushetskyProgram ManagerSolar Energy Technologies ProgramU.S. Department of Energy<br />
    2. 2. Challenges to Solar<br />Costs<br />Hardware<br />Installation and other soft costs<br />Access to land, transmission, and financing<br />Grid Integration<br />2<br />
    3. 3. SETP is focused on enabling high penetration of solar energy technologies<br /> Slide 3<br />3<br />
    4. 4. Solar Vision Study<br />Goals of the study<br />Evaluate the technical, economic, and environmental feasibility of meeting 10-20% of electricity demand from solar energy technologies by 2030; and<br />Identify technology Research, Development, Demonstration, Deployment (RD3) and Policy options that could be employed to help achieve this vision.<br />Scope of Study<br />Includes PV (central and distributed), CSP, and Solar Water Heating/Cooling.<br />Committee Members and Working Group<br />Over 100 participants from Industry, National Labs, and DOE<br />Scheduled for release in mid-2010<br />
    5. 5. Residential PV: LCOE Targets<br />2015<br /><ul><li>With the 30% ITC, PV is broadly competitive with residential electricity rates.
    6. 6. Without the ITC, PV is broadly competitive under all conditions except that with the most expensive financing and worst insolation. </li></ul>2030<br /><ul><li>Without the ITC, PV has levelized costs that are lower than most residential electricity rates.
    7. 7. Standard financial assumptions overestimate LCOE due to combination of tax effects and higher cost of capital than in the market.</li></ul>* No state, local or utility incentives are included. The range in residential PV LCOE is due to different insolation and financing conditions. For a complete list of assumptions, see DOE Solar Cost Targets (2009 – 2030), in process. <br />‡ The electricity rate range represents one standard deviation below and above the mean U.S. residential electricity prices. <br />$ The system is located in Phoenix, AZ and financed with a real cost of capital of 7.0%. The capital recovery factor does not take into account the ITC or financing tax preferences.<br />
    8. 8. Utility PV: LCOE Targets<br />2015<br /><ul><li>With the 30% ITC, PV is broadly competitive with wholesale electricity rates.
    9. 9. With the 10% ITC, PV is equal to or below the CA MPR and competitive with high wholesale electricity rates under the best insolation and financing conditions </li></ul>2030<br /><ul><li>With the 10% ITC, PV is broadly competitive with wholesale electricity rates.
    10. 10. Standard financial assumptions yield LCOE estimates that are towards the high end of the program’s range due to excluding the 10% ITC and depreciation</li></ul>* Assumes IOU or IPP ownership of PV, and thus the LCOE includes the taxes paid on electricity generated. Includes 5-year MACRS but not state or local incentives. The range in utility PV LCOE is due to different insolation and financing conditions. For a complete list of assumptions, see DOE Solar Cost Targets (2009 – 2030), in process. <br />‡ The electricity rate range represents one standard deviation below and above the mean U.S. wholesale electricity prices. <br />§ The 2009 CA MPR includes adjustments by utility for the time of delivery profile of solar (low case: SDG&E, mid case: PG&E, high case: SCE). <br />
    11. 11. Historical and Projected PV Learning Curve<br />
    12. 12. Reaching Grid Parity Targets will require advances in all system components<br />
    13. 13. Solar Instructor Training Network$27M over 5 years <br /> Slide 9<br />Kennebec Valley Community College<br />Supporting the training for up to 1400 instructors, resulting in a projected capacity to train up to 170,000 students <br />Midwest Renewable Energy Association<br />Hudson Valley Community College<br />California Community Colleges Board of Governors, California Energy Commission, California Centers for Sustainable Energy, the Labor Management Cooperation Committee<br />Salt Lake Community College; Solar Energy International; Utah Solar Energy Association<br />Pennsylvania State University<br />North Carolina Solar Center at NCSU<br />Activities: <br /><ul><li>Sponsor instructors at “train the trainer” workshops and equip labs
    14. 14. Create and modify curricula and align them to highest standards
    15. 15. Create replicable training models for local instructors
    16. 16. Use innovative approaches such as online tools and mobile labs
    17. 17. Leverage resources and share best practices</li></ul>REGIONS:<br />Northeast<br />Northern Mid-Atlantic<br />Southern Mid-Atlantic<br />Southeast<br />Midwest<br />South-Central<br />Rocky Mountain<br />California/Hawaii<br />Providers<br />Partnership<br />The Energy Institute at HCC - Northeast<br />Florida Solar Energy Center at UCF <br />
    18. 18. Slide 10<br />25 Solar America Cities Partnerships<br />
    19. 19. Solar Guide for Local GovernmentsPublished in July 2009<br /> Slide 11<br />Solar Powering Your Community: A Guide for Local Governments<br />Provides policy and program descriptions, implementation tips and options, and real life examples in areas of:<br />Organizing and strategizing efforts<br />Accelerating demand through policies and incentives<br />Updating and enforcing local rules and regulations<br />Engaging utilities<br />Creating jobs and supporting economic development<br />Accelerating demand through outreach and education<br />Leading by example with installations on government properties<br />www.solaramericacities.energy.gov/resources<br />
    20. 20. Utility CSP: LCOE Targets<br />2015<br /><ul><li>With the 30% ITC, CSP is below the CA MPR under all conditions and competitive with high wholesale electricity rates under the best financing conditions
    21. 21. With the 10% ITC, CSP is equal to the CA MPR under almost all conditions</li></ul>2030<br /><ul><li>With the 10% ITC, CSP is broadly competitive with wholesale electricity rates under all conditions
    22. 22. Standard financial assumptions overestimate LCOE due to excluding the 10% ITC and depreciation, and higher capital intensiveness.</li></ul>CSP LCOE with standardized financial assumptions <br />* Assumes IOU or IPP ownership of CSP, and thus the LCOE includes the taxes paid on electricity generated. Includes 5-year MACRS but not state or local incentives. The range in utility CSP LCOE is due to different technologies, capacity factors and financing conditions. For a complete list of assumptions, see DOE Solar Cost Targets (2009 – 2030), in process. <br />‡ The electricity rate range represents one standard deviation below and above the mean U.S. wholesale electricity prices. <br />§ The 2009 CA MPR includes adjustments by utility for the time of delivery profile of solar (low case: SDG&E, mid case: PG&E, high case: SCE). <br />
    23. 23. CSP Signature Concept<br /> Slide 13<br />Small Demonstrations – Phase I<br /><ul><li>4 to 6 demonstration plants 1-10 MW each – approximately 30 MW total
    24. 24. Demonstrations of operating facilities fully representative of utility-scale systems.
    25. 25. Project selected based on technology performance and cost and environmental benefit evaluated by qualified engineering and financial companies.
    26. 26. Projects will be privately owned and supported by government funding.</li></ul>Full Scale Demonstrations – Phase II<br /><ul><li>Successful Phase I demonstrations qualify for a site in Solar Demonstration Zone to be identified by DOE based on multiple factors including environmental and commercial viability.
    27. 27. Successful demonstrations may qualify for DOE Loan Guarantee.
    28. 28. Site planning and infrastructure and transmission arranged under DOE leadership.
    29. 29. Environmental studies will be completed by DOE/BLM.</li></li></ul><li>Grid Integration Issues<br />High Variability due to clouds<br />PV Variability (ramp rates)<br />Understanding PV output vs. geographic diversity<br />Solar Forecasting (scheduling other generation)<br />Need better models for large-scale PV at the transmission level<br />Both CAISO and Hawaii Utilities (HECO, MECO, and HELCO) have proposed new rules on solar installations to address concerns about grid disruptions<br /><ul><li>CAISO – Interconnection Standards Review Initiative – Draft Straw-man Proposal
    30. 30. Hawaii – Rule 14h (Docket #2010-0015) and Feed-In-Tariff (Docket #2008-0273)</li></ul>These rules could limit market penetration of distributed and centralized solar<br />
    31. 31. High Penetration Solar Deployment<br />Arizona Public Service Company - Study the impacts of 1.5 MW of photovoltaic (PV) generation connected to a typical residential feeder<br />Commonwealth Edison Company - Evaluate consumer reactions when a utility provides advanced metering and price signals for electric power with PV, without PV, and with both PV and energy storage<br />Florida State University - Identify the need for technical solutions to address any issues identified with high-penetration levels of grid-connected photovoltaics including protection, control strategies, and technologies<br />National Renewable Energy Laboratory - Utilize modeling and simulation, laboratory testing, and field demonstrations to determine the effect of high penetrations of up to 500 MW of mostly commercial scale rooftop PV systems on electrical distribution systems<br />Sacramento Municipal Utility District - Determine the value of advanced metering infrastructure, PV, and the additional value of storage<br />University of California San Diego - Develop advanced modeling tools and electric power control strategies to optimize electric power value and to mitigate the impact of PV-sourced electricity on existing microgrids and the SmartGrid<br />Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University - Evaluate both existing and prototype power conditioners designed at Virginia Tech to identify cost-effective approaches to address issues associated with high-penetration PV systems<br />
    32. 32. Solar Vision StudyPreliminary Key Messages & Insights <br />For both 10% and 20% scenarios, major technology breakthroughs are not required for PV and CSP.<br />10% scenario is achievable with the current electricity infrastructure; 20% scenario would require significant transmission expansion and grid operations advancement.<br />Siting poses significant, but not insurmountable, challenges to achieving the 20% scenario.<br />Financing growth on supply chain/corporate side is not an issue, however, on the project side will need to move beyond tax equity markets to meet targets.<br /> Slide 16<br />Preliminary Results<br />Not for official release<br />
    33. 33. Thank You<br />John LushetskyProgram ManagerSolar Energy Technologies ProgramU.S. Department of Energy<br />john.lushetsky@ee.doe.gov<br />202-287-1685<br />www.solar.energy.gov<br />17<br />
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