Miller - The Critical Role of Materials in the PV Industry
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Miller - The Critical Role of Materials in the PV Industry

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Dave Miller, President of DuPont Electronics & Communications, presented at the GW Solar Institute Symposium on April 19, 2010. More information at solar.gwu.edu/Symposium.html

Dave Miller, President of DuPont Electronics & Communications, presented at the GW Solar Institute Symposium on April 19, 2010. More information at solar.gwu.edu/Symposium.html

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  • 1. GW Solar Institute Symposium The Critical Role of Materials in the Solar PV Industry Dave Miller President, DuPont Electronics & Communications April 19, 2010
  • 2. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 2 Discussion Topics • PV market background • Materials role in helping reach grid parity • Investment required in materials 2010/4/15 DUPONT © DuPont
  • 3. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 3 The Vision of DuPont To be the world’s most dynamic science company, creating sustainable solutions essential to a better, safer, healthier life for people everywhere. We are a market-driven science company. 2010/4/15 DUPONT © DuPont
  • 4. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 4 DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions Cell metallization Films for backsheets Module Engineering & process chemicals & frontsheets encapsulation resins & components #1 Global PV materials manufacturer (ex-silicon) 2010/4/15 DUPONT © DuPont
  • 5. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 5 Industry Status: Post Financial Crisis Demand Strong Again, but Pricing Weak Return to historical • ~50% installation growth from 2009 to 2010 PV growth rates • Significant growth in USA, China, & Italy • US: ITC (30% subsidy), MTC ($2.3B) Stronger impact from • China: Golden Sun (50% subsidy, ~$3B) stimulus programs • Germany: FIT cut 3Q10 • Bank lending more conservative Continued focus on • Bank lending for CIGS & Concentrator PV developing “bankable” technologies slowly • 2009 module prices down 30-40% yr/yr Continued weak pricing • Expect another 10-20% price decline in 2010 2010/4/15 DUPONT © DuPont
  • 6. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 6 Tremendous Reduction in Module Prices Accelerates the Drive to Grid Parity Crystalline Si Module Selling Prices 4.50 Module 4.00 Price ($/W) 3.50 3.00 2009 Module 2.50 Prices: Down ~38% Financial Crisis 2.00 1.50 1.00 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 Projected 2010/4/15 DUPONT Source: Deutsche Bank © DuPont
  • 7. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 7 Significant growth of PV installations expected to 2014, driven by expanding incentives and cost reduction Annual Installations Volume CAGRs 2010-2014 2010 2014 on GW basis Rank Rank 1 Germany 2014 2 (-1) 2010 2 Japan 4 (-2) Germ. 3 Italy 5 (-2) 2% ROE US Fran 68% 4 USA 1 (+4) Spain 21% China Japan 57% 13% Italy 43% 19% 14% 5 France 7 (-2) India 50% ROA 6 Spain 10 (-4) 23% 7 China 3 (+4) 8 Czech 14 (-6) >50% >50% 9 ROA 12 (-3) Growth 30-50% Growth 30-50% Rate Rate 20-30% 20-30% 10 India 8 (+2) <20% <20% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 GW Total 2010: 12.7 GW CAGR: Market 2014: 30.0 GW 24% 2010/4/15 DUPONT Source: EPIA Policy Driven Scenario, March 2010 © DuPont
  • 8. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 8 U.S. Companies Maintain a Strong Leadership Position in Materials & Equipment for PV Balance Materials Cells Modules Of Systems & Equipment System 10% 6% 37% ROW ROW ROW 2010/4/15 DUPONT Source: DuPont © DuPont
  • 9. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 9 Photovoltaics is an Excellent Creator of Jobs Job Creation Potential of Various Energy Generation Assets Number of 40 Jobs per MW 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Tidal Wind Geothermal Biomass- Solar PV Dedicated Steam Source: INEEL, BC Sustainable Energy Association, Lehman Brothers, Renewable Energy Policy Project 2010/4/15 DUPONT © DuPont
  • 10. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 10 PV Has Higher Materials Content Compared to Other Electronic Products Materials 13% 30% 23% PV Displays Semicon $35B $35B $134B $134B $249B $249B Source: Solar Buzz; Prismark 2010/4/15 DUPONT © DuPont
  • 11. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 11 Materials Cost Impact on PV Cells & Modules Bill of Materials Other Materials (4%) Conductive Ribbon (2%) Reflector Paint (4%) Cost of 1.1 Materials Junction Box (6%) in $/W 1 Other Mat’ls (13%) 0.9 Junction Box (6%) 0.8 Encap Film (7%) Encap Film (9%) Front Glass (7%) 0.7 Gases & Targets (12%) Backsheet Film (10%) 0.6 Metallization Backsheet Film (13%) 0.5 Pastes (13%) 0.4 Module Frame (19%) 0.3 Silicon 0.2 Metal TCO Front (43%) Glass (32%) 0.1 0 Crystalline Silicon Thin Film 2010/4/15 DUPONT Source: DuPont © DuPont
  • 12. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 12 Strong Pipeline of Materials Innovations will Improve System Efficiency, Cost and Lifetime Efficiency Lifetime N-type silicon wafers Improved cell metallization Improved encapsulants Higher aspect ratio metallization Improved anti-soiling/fouling coatings Improved anti-reflective coatings More durable backsheets Textured tabbing ribbons Better edge sealing Improved transparent conductive oxides Higher reliability inverters Better reflector films Thermally conductive substrates Higher blue light transparent materials Microinverters More temperature resistant substrates Flexible moisture barriers Thermally conductive substrates Cost Thinner Si wafers Lower quality UMG (upgraded metallurgical grade) silicon Faster lamination cycle time Simpler mounting & racking systems Lower moisture sensitivity encapsulants Thinner encapsulant films Thinner backsheet films New backsheet constructions Lighter weight materials 2010/4/15 DUPONT © DuPont
  • 13. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 13 Materials Innovations for Higher Cell Efficiency Materials Innovation High Efficiency Metallization Pastes Cell efficiency improvements 114 Next Gen Solamet® for 112 Double Printing • DuPont Solamet® metallization Relative Efficiency 110 pastes enable ~2%/yr 108 efficiency improvement 106 • Double printing technology 104 accelerates efficiency gains Solamet® Metallization 102 Product Launches 100 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2010/4/15 DUPONT © DuPont
  • 14. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 14 Strong Pipeline of Materials Innovations will Improve System Efficiency, Cost and Lifetime Efficiency Lifetime N-type silicon wafers Improved cell metallization Improved encapsulants Higher aspect ratio metallization Improved anti-soiling/fouling coatings Improved anti-reflective coatings More durable backsheets Textured tabbing ribbons Better edge sealing Improved transparent conductive oxides Higher reliability inverters Better reflector films Thermally conductive substrates Higher blue light transparent materials Microinverters More temperature resistant substrates Flexible moisture barriers Thermally conductive substrates Cost Thinner Si wafers Lower quality UMG (upgraded metallurgical grade) silicon Faster lamination cycle time Simpler mounting & racking systems Lower moisture sensitivity encapsulants Thinner encapsulant films Thinner backsheet films New backsheet constructions Lighter weight materials 2010/4/15 DUPONT © DuPont
  • 15. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 15 Materials Innovations for Lower Module Costs Materials Innovation Ionomer Encapsulant Films Lower moisture ingress • DuPont PV5300 ionomer encapsulant films introduced in 2009 Moisture (%) • Unique properties are ideal for glass-glass PV modules • Cost savings of $3/panel by Distance from Edge (cm) elimination of edge sealing 2010/4/15 DUPONT © DuPont
  • 16. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 16 Strong Pipeline of Materials Innovations will Improve System Efficiency, Cost and Lifetime Efficiency Lifetime N-type silicon wafers Improved cell metallization Improved encapsulants Higher aspect ratio metallization Improved anti-soiling/fouling coatings Improved anti-reflective coatings More durable backsheets Textured tabbing ribbons Better edge sealing Improved transparent conductive oxides Higher reliability inverters Better reflector films Thermally conductive substrates Higher blue light transparent materials Microinverters More temperature resistant substrates Flexible moisture barriers Thermally conductive substrates Cost Thinner Si wafers Lower quality UMG (upgraded metallurgical grade) silicon Faster lamination cycle time Simpler mounting & racking systems Lower moisture sensitivity encapsulants Thinner encapsulant films Thinner backsheet films New backsheet constructions Lighter weight materials 2010/4/15 DUPONT © DuPont
  • 17. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 17 Materials Choices Drive System Reliability & Cost Longer-Life Systems Deliver Lower-Cost Power 100% Relative Electricity Cost of PV System 90% 80% Reduction in cost vs. 10 year life system 70% 60% 48% 48% 50% 58% 58% 40% 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 System Life (Years) 25 year warranties becoming standard 2010/4/15 DUPONT Source: Sunpower; DuPont © DuPont
  • 18. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 18 Materials Innovations for Longer System Lifetime Materials Innovation Polyvinyl Fluoride Films Higher aged adhesion 160 140 0 hr • Backsheets require 25+ year Adhesion Strength (N/cm) 120 1000 hrs adhesion under operating 100 conditions 80 60 • DuPont Tedlar® films have a 40 25+ year proven track record 20 in the field 0 All PET Single Layer Tedlar® TPT PVDF PVF Adhesion Change 93% 100% 16% 2010/4/15 DUPONT © DuPont
  • 19. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 19 Strong PV Market Growth Will Put Demands on Materials Suppliers PV Module Production Forecast GW 120 100 100 80 22% CAGR 60 40 37 35% 20.4 CAGR 20 12.4 15.9 6.8 6.1 9.4 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2020 2010/4/15 DUPONT Source: Applied Materials with extrapolation to 2020 © DuPont
  • 20. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 20 Large Capacity Expansions are Required to Keep Pace with PV Industry Growth Balance 2020 scenario 2020 scenario Materials Cells Modules Of Systems (100GW/yr) (100GW/yr) System CapEx to 80 - 100 50 - 100 40 - 60 10 - 20 n.m. 2020 ($B) Sales to CapEx Ratio 1.0 - 1.2 1-2 3-5 5 - 10 n.m. Silicon Glass Metallization Backsheet Encapsulant Pastes CapEx + $60B + $60B + $8B + $8B + $9B + $9B + $6B + $6B + $6B + $6B 2010/4/15 DUPONT Source: DuPont © DuPont
  • 21. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 21 Implications for PV Industry to 2020 Materials are critical component of PV systems Materials are essential to PV industry’s future roadmap: • Improved Efficiency • Reduced Cost • Longer Lifetime Materials companies serving the PV market need: • Strong technology & fast-paced innovation capability • Sufficient capital for capacity expansions • Global footprint to serve customers’ growth 2010/4/15 DUPONT © DuPont
  • 22. DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions 22 2010/4/15 DUPONT © DuPont