Blunden - Solar Photovoltaic Electricity

2,151 views

Published on

Julie Blunden, VP of Public Policy and Corporate Communications for SunPower Corp, presented at the GW Solar Institute Symposium on April 19, 2010. More information at solar.gwu.edu/Symposium.html

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
3 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
2,151
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
122
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
144
Comments
0
Likes
3
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Blunden - Solar Photovoltaic Electricity

  1. 1. SunPower Overview April, 2010
  2. 2. Safe Harbor This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are statements that do not represent historical facts and may be based on underlying assumptions. The company uses words and phrases such as "expects," “believes,” “plans,” “anticipates,” "continue," "growing," "will," to identify forward-looking statements in this presentation, including forward-looking statements regarding: (a) our plans and expectations regarding our cost reduction roadmap, (b) cell manufacturing ramp plan, (c) financial forecasts, (d) future government award funding, (e) future solar and traditional electricity rates, and (f) future percentage allocation of SunPower solar panels within our systems business. Such forward-looking statements are based on information available to the company as of the date of this release and involve a number of risks and uncertainties, some beyond the company's control, that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by these forward-looking statements, including risks and uncertainties such as: (i) the company's ability to obtain and maintain an adequate supply of raw materials and components, as well as the price it pays for such; (ii) general business and economic conditions, including seasonality of the industry; (iii) growth trends in the solar power industry; (iv) the continuation of governmental and related economic incentives promoting the use of solar power; (v) the improved availability of third-party financing arrangements for the company's customers; (vi) construction difficulties or potential delays, including permitting and transmission access and upgrades; (vii) the company's ability to ramp new production lines and realize expected manufacturing efficiencies; (viii) manufacturing difficulties that could arise; (ix) the success of the company's ongoing research and development efforts to compete with other companies and competing technologies; and (x) other risks described in the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended January 3, 2010, and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These forward-looking statements should not be relied upon as representing the company's views as of any subsequent date, and the company is under no obligation to, and expressly disclaims any responsibility to, update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. 2
  3. 3. SunPower >1 GW solar PV deployed 2009 revenue of $1.5B Diversified portfolio: roofs to power plants 550 MW 2010 production ~1000 dealers and growing rapidly 5,000+ Employees; 100% solar 4+ GW power plant pipeline Publicly listed NASDAQ: SPWRA, SPWRB Residential Commercial Power Plants © 2010 SunPower Corp. 3
  4. 4. History  Original funding VC/DOE/EPRI  Utility-scale solar dish application  High performance required  All-back-contact cell developed  NASA & Honda early customers  Great technology, high cost © 2010 SunPower Corp. 4
  5. 5. SunPower’s Leading Solar Cell Efficiency Percent 22.4% 22 In Production Today 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 = Average production efficiency 6 Thin Film Conventional SunPower A-300 SunPower Gen 2 © 2010 SunPower Corp. 5
  6. 6. SunPower: Most Energy Per Meter Squared Most powerful solar technology on the planet Direct Control: Ingot through Systems Polysilicon Ingot Wafer Solar Cell Solar Panel System © 2010 SunPower Corp. 6
  7. 7. Superior Performance, Superior Quality World’s Most Efficient Solar Cell Residential Rooftop Commercial Rooftop Ground Systems SunPower SunTile® SunPower ® T10 Roof Tile SunPower ® T20 Tracker Class A Fire Rated Up to 10% More Energy Up to 30% More Energy © 2010 SunPower Corp. 7
  8. 8. Value Chain Cost Distribution Polysilicon Ingot Wafer Solar Cell Solar Panel System $/W 2006 US Solar System Cost Allocation by Category 50% 30% 20% © 2010 SunPower Corp. 8
  9. 9. SunPower’s US Jobs Growth  SunPower US Direct Jobs – 2004: 40 – 2009: 700 – 2010: 900  2010 US Manufacturing: +100  2010 Dealers: >4000  2011 CVSR: 100s © 2010 SunPower Corp. 9
  10. 10. Manufacturing Location Siting Criteria 2009 New Capacity (MW) 1 California 220  Tax Credits / Exemptions 2 New Jersey 57  Local Incentives 3 Florida 36 4 Arizona 23  Long-term demand 5 Colorado 23 6 Hawaii 14 7 New York 12 8 Massachusetts 10 9 Connecticut 9 10 North Carolina 8 Other 29 Total 441 Source: SEIA 2009 Year in Review © 2010 SunPower Corp. 10
  11. 11. Grid-Tied, U.S. PV Installations Up 38% in 2009 New Grid-Tied PV Installations (MW) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009p Source: SEIA 2009 Year in Review © 2010 SunPower Corp. 11
  12. 12. Solar PV Scale: 20 GW Installed Base 2009 30,000 Global Annual Demand Forecasts (MW) 26,500 25,000 20,000 15,000 13,000 10,000 3rd Party - High 5,000 3rd Party - Average 3rd Party - Low - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sources: Barclays, UBS, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, BofA/Merrill Lynch © 2010 SunPower Corp. 12
  13. 13. Solar PV Uniquely Flexible to Serve All Segments Rooftops Distributed Central Station Power Plant Power Plant Solar policy design drives relative segment growth © 2010 SunPower Corp. 13
  14. 14. Power Plants for Utilities  Experience – SCE – 200 MW distributed rooftop – Florida Power and Light – 35MW – Exelon 8 MW urban infill – Xcel 17 MW under construction – PG&E 210 MW in permitting  Technology – T5 Rooftile & T0 tracker: most W/meter2 – T20 tracker: highest capacity factor  Return – LCOE competitive with gas peaker – Bankability, ease of permitting © 2010 SunPower Corp. 14
  15. 15. Over 250 MW of power plants installed in Europe Serpa, Portugal Isla Mayor, Spain Olivenza, Spain Jumilla, Spain Montalto, Italy Muehlhausen, 11 MW 8 MW 18 MW 23 MW 24 MW ©Germany, 6 MW Corp. 2010 SunPower 15
  16. 16. Solar PV Power Plants Are Cost Competitive LCOE by Resource $/MWh: 2009 - 2012 Renewables Solar PV $87 - 196 Solar Thermal $129 - 206 Wind $57 - 113 Conventional $216- 334 Gas Peaking Gas Combined 0 $69-96 Cycle 0 50 75 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Levelized Cost ($/MWh) Prices include federal incentives Source: Lazard Capital Markets 3/18/2009 © 2010 SunPower Corp. 16
  17. 17. PV Power Plant LCOE Drivers  Capital cost dominated by PV, BOS, and land – PV costs driven down per experience curve + technology – BOS costs reduced by larger plant sizes, experience curve, and higher panel efficiencies – Land development costs lowered by panel efficiency and scale  Capacity factor increased with tracking systems – Tracking also delivers more energy during peak demand periods  Cost of capital function of the perceived risk by investors – Proven technologies and performance lower cost of capital © 2010 SunPower Corp. 17
  18. 18. Crystalline Silicon PV Returns to Learning Curve Panel Average Sales Price (ASP) 2008$ 100 1979 $33/W 81% Progress Ratio Module ASP (2008$) 10 2008 $3.17/W Silicon Shortage 2012 $1.40/W 1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Cumulative Production (MW) Last 4 data points: the Prometheus Institute - Thinner wafers 300  145 microns - Efficiency 16%  22+% - Factories 100MW  1,000MW © 2010 SunPower Corp. 18
  19. 19. Pre-manufactured T20 Trackers Lower BOS Cost 18 MW Olivenza T20 Tracking System © 2010 SunPower Corp. 19
  20. 20. Constant Power Plant Capacity: 6.5 MW SunPower Conventional Thin Film / Fixed 34k m2 52k m2 72k m2 SPWR 150% m2 SPWR 210% m2 / -20% kWh © 2010 SunPower Corp. 20
  21. 21. Annual and Summer Peak Capacity Factor by System Technology 40% 38% 36% 34% 32% 30% Annual CF 28% Summer CF 26% 24% 22% 20% Fixed Tilt T20 Tracker T0 Tracker - Tracker annual Capacity Factors > 30% AC - Peak Summer Capacity Factors > 35% - Optimize technology choice for land use and delivery preferences Las Vegas, NV Plant Capacity Factor based on PV Grid v.11.1 © 2010 SunPower Corp. 21
  22. 22. Approximate Financed Solar Power Plant Capacity 5 GW 1 GW 0.5 GW Silicon PV Thin Film PV Trough CPV Heliostat / Tower CLFR CSP Dish Sterling © 2010 SunPower Corp. 22
  23. 23. Consistent Energy Production: Bavaria Solarpark 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 Expected Energy Production Actual Energy Production Actual vs Expected Production (MWh): 106% © 2010 SunPower Corp. 23 23
  24. 24. SunPower Power Plants: any scale, anywhere, fast © 2010 SunPower Corp. 24

×