Ken Zweibel | A Solar Solution

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  • Ken Zweibel | A Solar Solution

    1. 1. A Solar Solution (with a little help from wind and electric vehicles) Ken Zweibel Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy George Washington University www.solar.gwu.edu [email_address]
    2. 2. A Fast, Practical Path to Stabilizing Energy Prices and Reducing CO2
    3. 3. There’s Plenty of Solar 1 DAY of unconverted US solar energy: 48,000 TWh 1 YEAR of US electricity: 4000 TWh
    4. 4. Annual renewables Total Non- renewables Analysis in Perez, Fall 2008, “Architecture and Daylight,” Velux Magazine
    5. 5. Let’s Remind Ourselves that Solar Already Exists at the Multi-TWh Level
    6. 8. <ul><li>European PV Industries Association </li></ul>Past and Projected Growth of Solar PV Installations Worldwide (gigawatts) One GW produces about 1-1.7 TWh/yr (depending on sunlight), and there were about 5.5 GW installed last year alone. Each installation produces for about 30 years 1 nuclear power plant in kWh
    7. 9. Deployment Stages in the US <ul><li>Experimental (now) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Discover issues </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Intermittent fuel and CO2 reduction (next) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduce CO2 and fuel, no firmness or dispatchability </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Intermittent additional energy production (in parallel with Stage 2) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Add new, nondispatched electricity to smarter grid, e.g., for plug-in hybrids and EVs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Firm peak and daytime power (mostly after Stages 1-3) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Add limited storage or other means to firm solar output </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Firm nondaytime power (mostly after Stage 4) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Complete dispatchability for selected solar outputs </li></ul></ul>
    8. 10. Two Paths in Parallel <ul><li>Subtract Fuel and CO2 </li></ul><ul><li>Add solar and wind, and subtract the avoided fossil fuels </li></ul><ul><li>Use the existing fossil fuel generators to fill in the gaps </li></ul><ul><li>Potential about 2000 TWh/yr of electricity with minimal storage costs </li></ul><ul><li>Provide New Electricity </li></ul><ul><li>Add solar and wind to charge plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles </li></ul><ul><li>Use the smart-grid customer connection to handle intermittent charging </li></ul><ul><li>Not add a single new fossil fuel electron to power all new vehicles, thus eliminating all CO2 from displaced gasoline </li></ul><ul><li>Another 1000 TWh/yr potential </li></ul>US now uses 4000 TWh/yr electricity
    9. 11. What Would This Take in Infrastructure Changes? <ul><li>Smart grid </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Better forecasting of electricity demand and solar and wind availability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Better dispatching of regional resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Fast, rapid ramping natural gas turbines </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Some aggregation of regional grid balancing units </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Two-way pinging of grid for cost-effective battery charging for EVs and PHEVs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Transmission for wind </li></ul><ul><li>Some transmission from Southwest for solar, depending on mix of geographic locations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Solar works almost anywhere in US, but SW is best </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Some small, smart, fast electric storage, but no large-scale storage </li></ul>See recent NERC, “Accommodating High Levels of Variable Generation,” April 2009 (www.nerc.com)
    10. 12. Comparing Electric and Gasoline Operating Costs for Light-Duty Vehicles (not including battery costs) This is a way to use solar and save money versus today’s gasoline Gasoline Price Vehicle Cost @25 mpg What Electricity Could Cost and Still be More Economical than Gasoline (at 0.333 kWh/mi) $1/gal 4 ¢/mi 12 ¢/kWh $2/gal 8 ¢/mi 24 ¢/kWh $3/gal 12 ¢/mi 36 ¢/kWh $4/gal 16 ¢/mi 48 ¢/kWh $5/gal 20 ¢/mi 60 ¢/kWh $6/gal 24 ¢/mi 72 ¢/kWh
    11. 13. So, What Happens on a Rainy Day? To first order, NOTHING! – We use conventional fuels just like we do now! {or we “pipe in” solar or wind electrons}, and we still reduce CO2 and fuel use on the other days
    12. 14. Any Gotchas? <ul><li>Let’s not have any surprises like we did with corn ethanol… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Land </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Air </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Water </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Demand matching </li></ul></ul>
    13. 16. Land Use is a Strength for Solar Conventional Solar Hydro <ul><li>Hydro lakes over 1% US land </li></ul><ul><ul><li>7% electricity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>300 TWh/yr </li></ul></ul><1% US land could make 4000 TWh/yr (100% US electricity) 15 times less land than hydro per kWh Coal About the same as solar when strip mining is not “stripped away”* With solar, the land is not destroyed Biomass Plant efficiency less than 0.1% after conversion to useful work Efficiency and land use about 40-100 times better than biomass (and no water or food issues) Farm set-aside program 34 million acres Solar for all electricity – 20 million acres
    14. 18. Energy Will Use Land <ul><li>That is why we must have clarity about comparative land use </li></ul><ul><li>Shoving off energy production somewhere else does not help the planet or nation </li></ul><ul><li>NIMBY has to be replaced by Enlightened IMBY for both energy security AND environmental reasons </li></ul><ul><li>Can Google help defuse a simmering green civil war between renewable energy advocates and wildlife conservationists in the American West? That’s the idea behind a new Google Earth mapping project launched Wednesday by the Natural Resources Defense Council and the National Audubon Society. Map Green Energy will identify areas in 13 western states potentially suitable for massive megawatt solar power plants, wind farms, transmission lines and other green energy projects. The app will also pinpoint critical habitat for protected wildlife such as the desert tortoise in California and Wyoming’s sage grouse as well as other environmentally sensitive lands. “This was information that was unavailable or very scattered,” said Google.org program director David Bercovich at a press conference. “The potential cost savings from this will be enormous. If we can get people to the right areas and streamline the process that will have enormous benefits in getting clean energy online faster.” </li></ul>
    15. 19. Energy Payback Times (EPBT) Crystal Clear & BNL Studies 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Ribbon-Si 11.5% Multi-Si 13.2% Mono-Si 14.0% CdTe 9% EPBT (Years) BOS Frame Frameless Module 2.2 2.7 1.1 1.7 Insolation: 1700 kwh/m2-yr Based on data from 13 US and European PV manufacturers
    16. 20. GHG Emissions from Life Cycle Energy of Electricity Production 24 24 32 Fthenakis and Kim , Energy Policy , 2007 Fthenakis et al., Environmental Science & Technology , 2008. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Coal (Kim and Dale 2005) Natural Gas (Kim and Dale 2005) Petroleum (Kim and Dale 2005) Nuclear (Baseline - Fthenakis and Kim, 2007 PV, CdTe (Fthenakis et al, 2008) PV, mc-Si, (Fthenakis et al, 2008) GHG (g CO2-eq./kWh) Materials Operation Transportation Fuel Production
    17. 21. “ Energy Use and Water Use,” Report to Congress 2006
    18. 22. Water Use <ul><li>PV and wind use essentially zero water during operation and a small amount over their life cycle </li></ul><ul><li>Most thermal plants use huge amounts of cooling water “once through” or can be adapted to recirculating water at about 1 gal/kWh (est.) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Once through” cooling trails irrigation (40%) as the second largest use of water in the US (39%) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>But actual consumption from water system is much smaller (but will rise as “once through” is phased out) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>CSP uses a lot but can be made “dry cooling” at a cost </li></ul>
    19. 23. Wind and Sun Are Complementary High Plains Express Feasibility Study, June 2008, p. 35 Solar is on when wind is off (midday and mid-year)
    20. 24. Fast, Sensible Path to a Major Fraction of Our Electricity and Avoided CO2 <ul><li>Build wind and transmission for wind </li></ul><ul><li>Build large PV and solar thermal electric in Southwest (and PV in central FL) and transmission to CA and TX </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Add transmission from SW through windy regions to markets like Chicago (combine solar and wind on transmission line) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Build distributed PV on large flat roofs and parking lots all over the country </li></ul><ul><li>Incentivize plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles and mass transit, using wind and solar for every new kWh </li></ul><ul><li>Add smart grid, faster responding gas turbines, larger balancing regions, and a tiny amount of storage to stabilize the grid for up to ~40% solar and wind penetration (2030) </li></ul>
    21. 25. Measurable Targets <ul><li>Flat-line carbon dioxide emissions in the US at today’s level </li></ul><ul><ul><li>IEA estimates a growth rate of about 40 million MT/yr CO2 to 2030 (this is a rough estimate) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>About 70 TWh/yr of additional non-CO2 electricity would offset this (at 0.6 kg CO2/kWh, based on national electric mix) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>This is only ~34 GW/yr of new installed capacity (for a blended capacity wind & solar capacity factor of ~25%) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>With additions of 17 GW/yr of solar and 17 GW/yr of wind, we can stop the growth of CO2 emissions in the US </li></ul><ul><ul><li>This is an attractive, easily attainable , near-term goal </li></ul></ul>
    22. 26. More Ambitious Goals: Reverse CO2 Build Up <ul><li>Reduce by 1% per year (Easy by 2025) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>60 million MT/yr more CO2 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Add 100 TWh/yr or 50 GW/yr combined wind and solar </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Reduce by 5% per year (Challenging but achievable by 2025) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>300 million MT/yr </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Add 500 TWh/yr or 250 GW/yr (plus 34 GW to stabilize) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Reduce by 10% per year (Very hard) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>0.6 gigatons/yr CO2 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Add 1000 TWh/yr or 500 GW/yr </li></ul></ul>
    23. 27. Which Brings Up Cost <ul><li>How much would it cost to reach the 5% annual CO2 reduction goal? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Does it “break the bank”? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Which seems to have a new meaning lately </li></ul></ul></ul>
    24. 28. How Do We Calculate Cost? <ul><li>Cost of </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Installed solar and wind systems and their operation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Added cost of transmission and modified fossil-fuel back-up </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Choice of solar locations (highest sunlight versus distributed nationally) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Avoided costs (“externalities”) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fuel (including gasoline) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduced price increases of fossil fuels (including gasoline if we charge batteries for transportation) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased employment and tax base </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased circulation of money within our region (instead of a balance of payments deficit) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduced CO2 and NOx </li></ul></ul>
    25. 29. First-Order Solar and Wind Estimates To Get to 2000 TWh/yr Output in 2025 <ul><li>Solar – ~650 GW produces >1000 TWh </li></ul><ul><li>Wind – ~400 GW produces >1000 TWh </li></ul><ul><li>Capital cost $2.2 trillion through 2025 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>At $2.5/W* solar, $1.6 trillion (replaced every 60? years)** </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>At $1.5/W* wind, $0.6 trillion (replaced every 20? years) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Operating cost at these levels </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Solar @ $15/kW-yr: $10 billion/yr (~1 ¢/kWh) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wind @ $40/kW-yr: $16 billion/yr (~1.6 ¢/kWh) </li></ul></ul>*Weighted average now to 2025, large systems in above average sunlight ** 0.5% annual degradation ignored
    26. 30. Costs of Solar and Wind to 2000 TWh/yr <ul><li>System annual capital cost at 5% loan (low-risk rate): $143 billion/yr (P&I) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>7 c/kWh </li></ul></ul><ul><li>System O&M: 1.3 c/kWh </li></ul><ul><li>Transmission and back-up: ~3 c/kWh (ouch) </li></ul><ul><li>Raw cost of solar and wind electricity: 11 c/kWh (2025) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Conventional fuels might be higher than 11 c/kWh by then </li></ul></ul>
    27. 31. Top 15 Module Makers 2008 (PV News)
    28. 32. Steady Cost Reduction to $1/W
    29. 33. Lowest Cost, Large Systems <ul><li>Southern Cal Edison rooftops ($3.5/W after 30% ITC) </li></ul><ul><li>Blythe, CA market referent, 12 c/kWh after 30% ITC </li></ul><ul><li>Sempra 10 MW, called the lowest priced PV in world </li></ul><ul><li>3 euro/watt juwi group 53 MW in Lieberose </li></ul>
    30. 34. Module Roadmap to $1/W Price
    31. 35. Roadmap Implications <ul><li>Total system cost about $1.6/W </li></ul><ul><li>With 20% margin (for commodity product), $2/W price installed </li></ul><ul><li>Credible roadmap to $2/W from experienced, proven manufacturer with history of achieving more than they claim </li></ul>Fortune April 15, 2009 on First Solar modules used in Sempra system in Nevada “ Those two power plants provide us with a substantial competitive advantage in both timing and cost,” said Allman (Sempra Generation CEO ). “These two initial projects will be the lowest cost energy delivered out of a solar project anywhere in the world.”
    32. 36. What of post-2025? <ul><li>It doesn’t matter, we can wait and find out over the next 10 years </li></ul><ul><li>But just to fill in the gaps a little…at least through Stage 4 (firm solar and wind) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>More transmission to facilitate access to the best resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Unified grid (national, international) to facilitate geographic separation and smoothing of intermittent sources (take out the local weather-driven kinks) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Selective mass storage to firm power when needed (e.g., when adding non-fossil peak generation) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Enabling Technologies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Improved car batteries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improved mass storage of electricity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improved solar and wind </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Less expensive (and lower loss) transmission (and access to corridors) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Electric transportation of all kinds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Switch to solar(geo)-thermal electric heat pumps </li></ul></ul>
    33. 37. Summary <ul><li>Can stop the rise of carbon dioxide easily with sun and wind </li></ul><ul><li>Can reverse the growth of carbon dioxide by about 5%/yr with aggressive substitution of sun/wind for fossil fuels </li></ul><ul><li>In parallel and addition, can easily meet all new electricity demand for electric transport with sun and wind, and avoid all the CO2 from the gasoline that is replaced </li></ul><ul><li>Can prevent ratcheting up of fuel prices </li></ul>
    34. 38. Acknowledgements Vasilis Fthenakis and Richard Perez for essential input

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