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Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue by Lučka Kajfež Bogataj
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Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue by Lučka Kajfež Bogataj


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Economic growth and water: an integrated approach helps

Economic growth and water: an integrated approach helps

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  • 1. Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue
    Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
    former IPCC WG2 vicechair
  • 2. ”The Squeeze”
    Human growth
    20/80 dilemma
    60 % loss dilemma
    550/450/350 dilemma
    99/1 dilemma
  • 3. Climate change is not isolated from other problems: the importance of converging trends
    • Population dynamics: Until 2050 population growth will lead to a world population between 8.7 and 9.3 billion people.
    • 4. Resource consumption: rise in consumption of energy and resources: it is expected that by 2030 primary energy needs will increase by more than 50%.
    • 5. Urbanisation is advancing: By 2030 up to 60% of the world’s population could be living in cities. The largest growth in city populations ~ 50% will be in Africa and Asia.
    • 6. Result: Number of destabilising, mutually amplifying factors
  • Increased demand
    50% by 2030 (IEA)
    Climate Change
    Increased demand
    30% by 2030
    Increased demand
    50% by 2030
    Key Questions
    Can 9 billion people be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably?
    Can we cope with the future demands on water?
    Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty?
    Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change?
    Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and preserving ecosystems?
    The Perfect Storm?
    (Beddington, 2009)
  • 7. Climate Change
    • Is the climate change an environmental issue or becomes to be a threat to international peace and security?
  • Global temperature rise
    • 1 - 2 billion additional people with water stress
    • 8. Impacts on cereal productivity at low latitudes
    • 9. Increased coastal flooding and storms
    • 10. Greater depth of seasonal permafrost thaw
    • A 16ºC increase in the Arctic
    • 11. 1.1 - 3.2 billion additional people with water stress
    • 12. Widespread coral mortality; risk of major extinctions around the globe
    • 13. Substantial global impact on major crops
    • 14. Long-term prospect of sea level rise
  • 15. Risks in key sectors
    Agriculture:Decreasing agricultural production, economic decline, more unempoyment, food shortages, increasing competition of demand
    Water: decresing water availability, changes in precipitation, melting of glaciers, extreme weather events, increasing competition of demand
    Climate change
    Urban space
    Land use
    Infrastructure, energy supply and transport: environmental change due to climate change increases running costs (damages, flooding etc) or reduces energy production (hydro)
    Urbanisation: Increasing disaster risks, health risks, growing population dynamics, growing slums
  • 16. The water conflict scenario
    • The scarcity of water is replacing oil as a flashpoint for conflict between nations in an increasingly urbanized world
    • 17. The danger of international competition for adequate water resources will grow inevitably. The increased demand for water could produce intense competition for this essential substance
  • 18. Climate change effects & migration: Hotspots & Trajectories
    Main trajectories
    WGBU 2007 (modified)
  • 19. Climate Change as a Threat
    Climate change
    • is a threat multiplier
    • 20. will overstretch the adaptive capacities of many societies
    • 21. increases number and intensity of conflicts and reduces capacity for peaceful conflict resolution
    • 22. leads to new lines of conflict in the international arena
  • Water Scarcity
    Crop Decline
    Coastal Risks
    Recent Conflicts
    A Multiplier for Instability
  • 23. National Security – Climate change linkages
    • Climate change could trigger national and international distributional conflicts and intensify problems already hard to manage such as state failure, the erosion of social order, and rising violence
    • 24. Climate change will degrade human security and livelihoods via increased risks of disasters, food insecurity, energy poverty etc.
  • Recommendation for states policies
    • In every country National Security Strategy should directly address the threat of climate change to the state’s national security interests.
    • 25. Evaluate preparedness for natural disasters from extreme weather events
    • 26. Evaluate the capacity of all levels of government and other institutions to respond to the consequences of climate change.
  • Conclusions
    • There is no military solution to climate security, but mainly disaster prevention through good governance, human rights, de-marginalization and empowerment
    • 27. Conflict prevention regarding climate change means mitigation and adaptation – ambitious global climate policy must be put into operation
    • 28. Mitigation and adaptation serve as prevention of non-climate-change-connected threats and conflicts e.g. energy security, water and food security