Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue by Lučka Kajfež Bogataj

Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue
Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
former IPCC WG2 vicechair

”The Squeeze”
Human growth
20/80 dilemma
Ecosystems
60 % loss dilemma
Climate
550/450/350 dilemma
Surprise
99/1 dilemma

Climate change is not isolated from other problems: the importance of converging trends
Population dynamics: Until 2050 population growth will lead to a world population between 8.7 and 9.3 billion people.
Resource consumption: rise in consumption of energy and resources: it is expected that by 2030 primary energy needs will increase by more than 50%.
Urbanisation is advancing: By 2030 up to 60% of the world’s population could be living in cities. The largest growth in city populations ~ 50% will be in Africa and Asia.
Result: Number of destabilising, mutually amplifying factors

Increased demand
50% by 2030 (IEA)
Energy
Climate Change
Water
Increased demand
30% by 2030
(IFPRI)
Food
Increased demand
50% by 2030
(FAO)
Key Questions
Can 9 billion people be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably?
Can we cope with the future demands on water?
Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty?
Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change?
Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and preserving ecosystems?
Biodiversity
The Perfect Storm?
(Beddington, 2009)

Climate Change
Is the climate change an environmental issue or becomes to be a threat to international peace and security?

Global temperature rise
+2°
PROBLEMATIC
1 - 2 billion additional people with water stress
Impacts on cereal productivity at low latitudes
Increased coastal flooding and storms
Greater depth of seasonal permafrost thaw
DISASTROUS
A 16ºC increase in the Arctic
1.1 - 3.2 billion additional people with water stress
Widespread coral mortality; risk of major extinctions around the globe
Substantial global impact on major crops
Long-term prospect of sea level rise
+4°

Risks in key sectors
Agriculture:Decreasing agricultural production, economic decline, more unempoyment, food shortages, increasing competition of demand
Water: decresing water availability, changes in precipitation, melting of glaciers, extreme weather events, increasing competition of demand
Climate change
Urban space
Energy
Infrastructure
transport
Governance
Water
Food
Land use
Infrastructure, energy supply and transport: environmental change due to climate change increases running costs (damages, flooding etc) or reduces energy production (hydro)
Urbanisation: Increasing disaster risks, health risks, growing population dynamics, growing slums

The water conflict scenario
The scarcity of water is replacing oil as a flashpoint for conflict between nations in an increasingly urbanized world
The danger of international competition for adequate water resources will grow inevitably. The increased demand for water could produce intense competition for this essential substance
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Climate change effects & migration: Hotspots & Trajectories
Main trajectories
WGBU 2007 (modified)

Climate Change as a Threat
Climate change
is a threat multiplier
will overstretch the adaptive capacities of many societies
increases number and intensity of conflicts and reduces capacity for peaceful conflict resolution
leads to new lines of conflict in the international arena

Water Scarcity
Demography
Crop Decline
Hunger
Coastal Risks
Recent Conflicts
A Multiplier for Instability

National Security – Climate change linkages
Climate change could trigger national and international distributional conflicts and intensify problems already hard to manage such as state failure, the erosion of social order, and rising violence
Climate change will degrade human security and livelihoods via increased risks of disasters, food insecurity, energy poverty etc.

Recommendation for states policies
In every country National Security Strategy should directly address the threat of climate change to the state’s national security interests.
Evaluate preparedness for natural disasters from extreme weather events
Evaluate the capacity of all levels of government and other institutions to respond to the consequences of climate change.

Conclusions
There is no military solution to climate security, but mainly disaster prevention through good governance, human rights, de-marginalization and empowerment
Conflict prevention regarding climate change means mitigation and adaptation – ambitious global climate policy must be put into operation
Mitigation and adaptation serve as prevention of non-climate-change-connected threats and conflicts e.g. energy security, water and food security

Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue by Lučka Kajfež Bogataj

by Global Water Partnership Central and Eastern Europe on Sep 22, 2011

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Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue by Lučka Kajfež Bogataj — Presentation Transcript