Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia former IPCC WG2 vicechair
”The Squeeze” Human growth 20/80 dilemma Ecosystems 60 % loss dilemma Climate 550/450/350 dilemma Surprise 99/1 dilemma
Climate change is not isolated from other problems: the importance of converging trends
Population dynamics: Until 2050 population growth will lead to a world population between 8.7 and 9.3 billion people.
Resource consumption: rise in consumption of energy and resources: it is expected that by 2030 primary energy needs will increase by more than 50%.
Urbanisation is advancing: By 2030 up to 60% of the world’s population could be living in cities. The largest growth in city populations ~ 50% will be in Africa and Asia.
Result: Number of destabilising, mutually amplifying factors
Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA) Energy Climate Change Water Increased demand 30% by 2030 (IFPRI) Food Increased demand 50% by 2030 (FAO) Key Questions Can 9 billion people be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably? Can we cope with the future demands on water? Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty? Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change? Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and preserving ecosystems? Biodiversity The Perfect Storm? (Beddington, 2009)
Risks in key sectors Agriculture:Decreasing agricultural production, economic decline, more unempoyment, food shortages, increasing competition of demand Water: decresing water availability, changes in precipitation, melting of glaciers, extreme weather events, increasing competition of demand Climate change Urban space Energy Infrastructure transport Governance Water Food Land use Infrastructure, energy supply and transport: environmental change due to climate change increases running costs (damages, flooding etc) or reduces energy production (hydro) Urbanisation: Increasing disaster risks, health risks, growing population dynamics, growing slums