IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.5 by Prof. Janos Tamas
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IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.5 by Prof. Janos Tamas

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IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.5 by Prof. Janos Tamas Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Policy oriented study on remote sensing agricultural drought monitoring methods Activity 5.5. Prof. János Tamás 2nd IDMP CEE Workshop Ljubljana, 8 – 9 April 2014
  • 2. Partners & Outputs Key qualifications of partners • Hungary (University of Debrecen and GWP HU): – Applied hydrological remote sensing and GIS; – Spatial Decision Supporting Systems • Romania (University of Oradea): - Geography and Integrated watershed management • Slovakia (Institute of Hydrology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences): - Agricultural water management, Soil hydrology
  • 3. Task definition • The main objective of this case study is to formulate concrete practical agricultural drought monitoring method and intervention levels with calibrating for the important crops and fruits (wheat, corn and apple)
  • 4. 2. RS tools for vegetation indices 3. Agricultural drought decision support parameters Finalize OUTPUT 1: An analysis report on the role of soil and crop water content status in waterbalance within different agricultural, landuse and water management practices at rain fed and irrigated systems for the most important crops and fruit (wheat, corn and apple) Finalize OUTPUT 2: Toolbox with the concrete identification of remote sensing and GIS data tools for agricultural drought monitoring and forecast Finalize OUTPUT 3: Report on integration of RS and GIS tools and intervention levels into drought monitoring system June 2013-Dec 2013 Sept 2013 – Jun 2014 May 2014 – Jan 2015 2. RS tools for vegetation indices 1. Analysis of green and brown water status 3. Agricultural drought decision support parameters No changes in sceduling of the case study
  • 5. Process flow of RS agricultural drought monitoring methods NDVI Time Series Land use mask Calibration with Yield statistical data Meteorological Data Calibration with Drought Index Soil Physical Data Calibration with available water content SDSS Classification Watch Varning Alert Plant Specific Drought Risk Evaluation
  • 6. What has been done from the 1st IDMP CEE workshop till now (October 2013 – April 2014)? Progress Report  Analysis of brown water status  Analysis of green water content  Spectral time series data sources  Data integration and processing  Yield data assessment
  • 7. What has been done from the 1st IDMP CEE workshop till now (October 2013 – April 2014)? - Brown water status Progress Report Problems with characterization of brown water: 1. National soil mapping methods are partly different from World Reference Base for Soil Resources (WRB). 2. To calculate brown water capacity of watersheds need to select critical parameter list: physical characteristics of soils, TWC, FC, TAW, WP, k. 3. A horizon is under continuous periodic cultivation, therefore the actual porosity is changing continuously in soil. Compaction and sealing are also problem.
  • 8. MODIS NDVI dataset Progress Report What has been done from the 1st IDMP CEE workshop till now (October 2013 – April 2014)? - Spectral time series
  • 9. Model for creating mask and extraction of arable land of a ROI out of a MODIS image What has been done from the 1st IDMP CEE workshop till now (October 2013 – April 2014)? - Data integration and processing Progress Report Regions of Interest (ROI) Shape of a certain ROI Final mask: Arable lands of a certain ROI NDVI of a certain ROI on arable lands
  • 10. Model for extraction process of a final ROI mask from MODIS NDVI images What has been done from the 1st IDMP CEE workshop till now (October 2013 – April 2014)? - Data integration and processing Progress Report
  • 11. Reference years for drought affected and average years based on yields • Green: optimal (wet) years • Red: drought affected years • Blue: extreme precipitation What has been done from the 1st IDMP CEE workshop till now (October 2013 – April 2014)? - Yield data assessment Progress Report
  • 12. At what stage of the final output(s) are you now? Progress Report 05 05 050505 Wet year Dry year
  • 13. At what stage of the final output(s) are you now? Progress ReportAt what stage of the final output(s) are you now?
  • 14. Concerning Activity list: 1. What does it mean: “to predict area-specific yield forecasts?”  Means forecast of yields in the case of extreme drought situation at a certain place 2. The name and type of output 3 are inconsistent. We also suggest to use in the report the same titles which are used in the Activity list.  Type of output three is a guideline for national governments and local stakeholders to integrate RS and GIS tools and intervention levels into drought monitoring system. 3. How 5.5 case study could lead to short-term policy design?  Policy makers can prepare for the effects of a severe drought on the food supply of the society in the impacted regions. It also help proactive redesigning of regional water governance. Milestone 1 was an internal report, which focused on technical problems. Policy orientation will be strongly considered in the final report. Reflection for PRG report:
  • 15. Capacity building “Training for trainers” meeting in Szarvas, Hungary - Consultancy with Ministry, Academic sector, - Engineers Ass. - Farmers Ass. Problem is the permanent reorganization of the water management sectors in Hungary Reflection for PRG report:
  • 16. Concerning the report (milestone 1) 1. Hydrological drought is as complex as agricultural drought  We absolutely agree with that statement. 2. It would be interesting to know how this output will be linked with Act. 5.4 and Act. 1.3.  The possible contributions of the 5.5. case study to other Acts. Will be considered in the 2nd phase of the project. 3. Descriptions of brown and green water are also provided without any reference  Green and brown water were defined in 11th Alps-Adria Scientific Workshop, which was a joint conference of the Slovak Academy of Sciences, Institute of Hydrology and the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Committees of Crop Production, Plant Protection, Soil Science and Agricultural Chemistry. 26-31 March, 2012 Smolenice, Slovakia Reflection for PRG report:
  • 17. Concerning the 6 specific comments 1. The average annual daily temperature is 100 C; Clear mistyping.  Cleared and corrected 2. The minimum and maximum annual precipitations between years 1900 and 1950 were 342 mm and 874 mm, respectively.’  Mistyping corrected , it supposed to be 1950-2000. 3. The yield gains produced by irrigation were statistically significant every year.’ Too strong statement.  After consultation with the Romanian partner we cleared this statement. 4. Information have to be mentioned with references only (for example figures 4 and 5).  These figures were self edited based on yield data. 5. NDVI has Agricultural drought means critical decrease in water content of plants, therefore the identification of this critical water loss is essential.’ It is for the soil water content.  Corrected: „plants which strongly correlates the available water content of soil,” 6. In Hungary information is given with reference to biomass and not to the water content. How was it calculated? (for example fig 4 of the report)  It was calculated based on international patents and references. We calculated by 15 % watercontent in yield which is the harvest ripe status of the grain (Farrer et al. 2006, USDA-ARS 2004) Reflection for PRG report:
  • 18. Thank you for your attention