IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

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  • 1. Assessment of drought impact on forest ecosystem Activity 5.2 Galia Bardarska 2nd IDMP CEE Workshop Ljubljana, 8 – 9 April 2014
  • 2. Partners & Outputs Bulgaria, Lithuania, Slovenia and Ukraine Forests are significantly dependent on water regime and, in turn, have a significant impact on the water regime of territories. Development a good practice for forest management and protection in drought periods
  • 3. 3 Border of area Forest-Steppe Mixed Forests Steppe Area Bulgaria Lithuania Slovenia Ukraine (pilot area) Total Land area, 1000 ha 11100 6530 2027 8193 27850 Forest area, 1000 ha 3927 2160 1253 1095 8435 Project pilot area in north-east part of Ukraine Sumy Kharkiv Lugansk GWP IDMP meeting, Ljubljana,8-9.04.2014
  • 4. Milestone 2: Establishment of methodology for assessment of drought impact on forest ecosystems in 2050 and 2070 Bulgaria: Vesselin Alexandrov and Ivan Raev Lithuania: Dontas Valiukas and Gintautas Stankunavicius Slovenia: Andrej Kobler and Lado Kutnar Ukraine: Igor Buksha, Maksym Buksha, Tatiana Pyvovar Progress Report Training Workshop: IDMP CEE, Activity 5.2, Slovenian Forestry Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 14 – 15 November 2013
  • 5. During the workshop in Ljubljana the participants agreed on the opportunity to use the WorldClim dataset : It was recommended to use the HadGEM2-AO (HD) climate change scenarios for the 2050s and 2070s. The 2100 should be dropped out of the project study because: • is far away from the recent time; • the dataset is already developed for the 2070s; • the dataset is already with high spatial resolution (less than 1 km); • there is no sense to develop another time period i.e. 2100 instead of 2070s as it is time and costs consuming.
  • 6. Surfer GIS
  • 7. ARCGIS
  • 8. Monthly temperature August 1961-1990
  • 9. Mean annual temperature 1961-1990
  • 10. Zoom – Bulgaria Mean annual temperature 1961-1990
  • 11. Climate change scenarios, annual temperature 2050 - scenario1
  • 12. T2 Climate change scenarios, annual temperature 2050 – scenario 2
  • 13. Diagram of the Holdridge Classification Scheme (Holdridge, 1967) The primary approach for evaluating the potential impacts of drought on forest ecosystems will include the use of the Holdridge life zone classification model.
  • 14. For the quantitative assessment of the drought impacts, the values of the drought index after De Martonne will be implemented. J = P/(T+10) (1) where: P and T are the annual precipitation and air temperature
  • 15. De Martonne index (1961-1990), Bulgaria De Martonne index 2050, Bulgaria •Zone A - index with value under 20 (in red color on the map): lasting deficit in moistening, which leads to destruction of the forest ecosystems; •Zone B - index from 21 to 30 (in yellow color on the map): lasting disturbances in the moistening; •Zone C - index from 31 to 40 (in green color on the map): disturbances in the moistening in some years; •Zone D - index from 41 to 70 (in blue color on the map): optimal conditions in the moistening; •Zone E - index above 70 (in purple color on the map): over moistening.
  • 16. 1960-1990 Holdridge Life Zones in Ukraine 16
  • 17. Pilot area 2050_HD26 Holdridge Life Zones 17
  • 18. Pilot area 2070_HD26 Holdridge Life Zones 18
  • 19. Pilot area 2050_HD45 Holdridge Life Zones 19
  • 20. Pilot area 2070_HD45 Holdridge Life Zones 20
  • 21. After determination of vulnerability zones of the forest ecosystems and forest life zones in drought, the mitigation and adaptation measures will be developed for each zone. Main outputs: 1. Development of action plans for 2050 and 2070 2. Contribution at Drought Guidelines of IDMP
  • 22. • Determination of vulnerability zones and some measures to October 2014 • No change of the plan instead of 2100 with 2070 • PRG remarks will be taken into account in the process of team’s work as well as at final report of the case study Plans