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IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea
IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea
IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea
IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea
IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea
IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea
IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea
IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea
IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea
IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea
IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea
IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea
IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea
IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea
IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea
IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea
IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea
IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea
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IDMP CEE Activity 5.6 by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea

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Activity 5.6 upgrading agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting - UA and MD

Activity 5.6 upgrading agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting - UA and MD

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  • 1. IDMP: Activity 5.6 upgrading agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting - UA and MD 1st Workshop IDMP in CEE, 15-16 October 2013, Hodrusa Hamre, Slovakia
  • 2. Main outcomes Upgraded climate-zoning of Ukraine territory and Dniester River Basin territory Drought risk maps for agro sector of Ukraine and Dniester RB – identification of drought prone areas Development of forecasting models for identification of crop yield losses caused by droughts (3 crops) UA Development of proposals for the precipitation harvesting and practices for moisture conservation in agro lands - MD Drought remedial measures for the agro sector Policy makers and stakeholders awareness raising on DM, planning
  • 3. Agro climatic zoning of Ukrainene Made in 1990s based on meteorogical data 1956-1985 for efficient using of climatic resources and increasing productivity of crops. To assess water holding capacity of the territory. Key index for zoning- hydro-thermic index Selyaninova (HTI) ГТК = R/0.1∑ T R – Sum of precipitation for period with air t > +10º С ∑ T - sum of average daily air t >+10º С 3 agro-climatic zones Marshy- possibility of soil droughts 0-10%; Forest-Steeper - possibility of droughts 15-40%; Steeper - droughts possibility 40-70%.
  • 4. Agricultural climatic zones Ukraine Marshy Agricultural climatic zones Forest-steppe Marshy-over norm moisture zone Annual precipitation – 570-760 мм Forest-steppe-normal moiture zone Annual precipitation – 575-650 мм Steppe- lower moisture zone Annual precipitation – 350-540 мм Steppe-
  • 5. 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 Anomalies of regional average annual air temperature (°С) in Ukraine as compared with the baseline period (1961-1990) 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 1901- 1911- 1921- 1931- 1941- 1951- 1961- 1971- 1981- 1991- 2000- 20111910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012 2.5 Anomalies of the average annual air temperature (° С) during the period of 1989-2012 years as compared with the baseline period (1961-1990) 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
  • 6. • • • • • • Uninterrupted data of 136 stations for 60-140 observation period were analyzed for Ukraine Temperature and .precipitation data analyzed Nowadays climate of Ukraine is characterized by unsymmetrical warming in space ( on territory) especially in winter and summer months. Average annual t increases more then on 0,8°С. Increasing t in cold period is in average 1,35°С, in warm period – 1,1°С. Average annual precipitation quantity in Ukraine has no changed. For base line period19611990 – 576 mm, for period 1991-2012 - 595 mm. There is substantial changes in the precipitation distribution during year. In winter (January, February) there is a decreasing on 1/5. in summer the precipitation quantity has increased on 515% in average. There is no positive effect of precipitation increasing in summer time because of intensive increasing of air t in the same time.
  • 7. 800 700 600 500 Annual amount of 400 precipitation in Ukraine, mm 300 200 100 0 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 20 % • Changes of precipitation amount (% of the norm of 19611990) in Ukraine by months for the period of 19912012 years. 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII год
  • 8. • • • • • • Planning for the next 6 months Analysis of long term data of water holding capacity of different laywers of soil (0-20 and 0-100 cm) The experimental data on accessible water holding ( for winter wheat and spring barley) in typical soils for each of zones on test fields for changes assessment during 1961-2012 the data of 15 meteorological stations will be used. Trends in soil water holding under climate change will be analyzed. The droughts risk zones changing possibility will be preliminary assessed.
  • 9. Schema regiunilor teritoriale şi bazinele de apă a Republicii Moldova K Agroclimatic zones of the Republic of Moldova based on the annual precipitation sum U R 1 P ru 2 t R Edineţ Soroca 3 1 3 A 2 O 5 4 Rîbniţ a Bălţi 4 I River basin in the Republic of Moldova M 5 Danube basin Forest steppeOrhei zone 6 6 with precipitation 7 level 500-550 mm Ungeni Ă N Dnester basin Dubăsari Chiş in ău 8 7 9 Bazinele rîurilor principale 3 Nistru 10 Leovo Steppe zone with annual 2 precipitation level 270-300 Comrat 11 mm Cahul 1 A Dunărea: Prut;1-Lopatinca; 2-Racovăţ; 3-Ciugur ; 4-Camenca; 5-Gîrla-Mare; 6-Delia;7-Brătuleanca; 8- Nîrnova; 9-Lăpuşna;10-Sărata; 11-Larga; Ialpuh; Lunga; Catlabuh; Chitai; Cahul. A I Bazinele rîurilor de ordinea I Nistru: 1-Camenca; 2- Beloci; 3-Ciornaia; 4-Iagorlîc;5-Răut; 6-Icheli; 7-Bîc; 8- Botna; Cogîlnic; Ciaga; Hadjidăr ; etc. 8 Căuşeni N Dunărea Tiraspol Bender Hî nceşti
  • 10. Statistical data on the slope inclination on the arable lands in Moldavian part of the Dnester basin in th. ha Arable < 1 lands degre e 1-2 degre e 2-3 degre e 3-5 degre e 5-7 degre e 7-10 degre e 10-15 degre e > 15 degre e 1175 210 240 270 155 28 29 6 234
  • 11. There are 178 soil types on the territory of Moldova (including Dnester basin). All soils differently degraded and various types contain different content of moisture.
  • 12. Experimental fields for moisture research (superficial runoff measurements - solid and liquid part)
  • 13. Moisture determination is conducted on a scientific experiment of the Institute of Pedology, and Agrochemistry and Soil Protection “N. Dimo” , which has 500 hectares of the experimental fiedls in the southern part of the Republic of Moldova with different types ofcrops. The fields are placed on the slopes with a different slant: 1-30, 3-50, >70.
  • 14. Fire of the straw after harvesting
  • 15. 1887 1889 1891 1893 1895 1897 1899 1901 1903 1905 1907 1909 1911 1913 1915 1917 1919 1921 1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Annual temperature modifications 1887-2012 (a) and anomalies for the period 1961-1990 (b) 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 -0,5 -1 -1,5 -2 -2,5 -3
  • 16. 1891 1893 1895 1897 1899 1901 1903 1905 1907 1909 1911 1913 1915 1917 1919 1921 1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1941 1943 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Annual precipitation in the Dnester basin 1000 900 y = 0,6448x + 484,88 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
  • 17. Further steps • • • • • Identification of the moisture retention capacities of soil in different parts of the Dnester basin Harvest losses due to the different moisture conservation practices in Moldova (Dnester basin) Identification of vulnerable areas due to the moisture content in soils Estimation of best soil processing and landscape management practices of agricultural lands. Development of recommendations (hand book) for farmers, sectoral authorities etc on soil moisture conservation practices

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