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IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: IPCC new reports by Kajfez Bogataj
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IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: IPCC new reports by Kajfez Bogataj

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  • 1. Monitoring of climate system
  • 2. Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2003-2012 average) 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC/yr 27% 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC/yr 92% +0.8 ± 0.5 GtC/yr 8% 2.6 ± 0.8 GtC/yr 27% Calculated as the residual of all other flux components 4.3±0.1 GtC/yr 45%
  • 3. It is extremely likely that more than 50% of the warming since 1951 is due to the increase in greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings together
  • 4. IPCC AR5 2013 It is warmer across the globe than it was a century ago
  • 5. Global natural disasters 1980 – 2013 Geophysical, meteorological, hydrological events
  • 6. Representative Concentration Pathways Vir: Van Vuuren et al (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
  • 7. Ranges for predicted surface warming
  • 8. Projections Europe (RCP4.5) 2081-2100 versus 1986-2005 Temperature (oC) Precipitation (%) winter summer winter half summer half
  • 9. 2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089 20 40 60 80 100 PERCENTAGEOF YIELDPROJECTIONS 0 2090-2109 0 – -5% -5 – -10% -10 – -25% -25 – -50% -50 – -100% 50 – 100% 25 – 50% 10 – 25% 5 – 10% 0 – 5% Range of Yield Change Increase in Yield Decrease in Yield Crop Yield Change
  • 10. Alleviating rivalries between economic sectors? Climatic change Water resources Tourism Agriculture Mining Conflict mitigation through improved water governance? Energy
  • 11. WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS INCREASE RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE