IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Recent Achievements in Drought research by Henny A.J. van Lanen

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IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Recent Achievements in Drought research by Henny A.J. van Lanen

  1. 1. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Henny A.J. van Lanen Recent achievements in drought research and science-policy interfacing
  2. 2. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Water under future climate Schewe et al. (PNAS, 2013) Change annual flow
  3. 3. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Urgent questions What is the current situation globally, and in Europe? What are the observed trends? ● Do we observe more frequent or severe drought? What will the future bring? ● Shall we face more frequent, longer or severe drought? ● Will water become more scarce? What to do?
  4. 4. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Drought: recurrent phenomenon EEA (2012)
  5. 5. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Drought – trends observed flow Stahl et al., HESS (2010) OBSERVED mean annual flow OBSERVED August flow
  6. 6. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Lack of observed river flow Unequal spatial distribution Stahl et al. (HESS, 2010) Drought – trends observed flow
  7. 7. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Drought: pan-European trends Trends in SIMULATED August flow (1963-2001) decreasing increasing Stahl et al. (HESS, 2012)
  8. 8. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Drought: model uncertainty Van Huijgevoort et al. (J of Hydrometeo, 2013) Model agreement: drought in runoff
  9. 9. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Trends and interdecal variability Hannaford et al. (HESS, 2012) Start year dryer wetter
  10. 10. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Trends and interdecal variability Hannaford et al. (HESS, 2012)
  11. 11. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Drought trend identification Confidence limited / uncertainty: lack of observational data definitional issues inability of models to include all the factors that influence droughts e.g. IPCC-SREX (2012)
  12. 12. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Urgent questions What is the current situation globally, and in Europe? What are the observed trends? ● Do we observe more frequent or severe drought? What will the future bring? ● Shall we face more frequent, longer or severe drought? ● Will water become more scarce? What to do?
  13. 13. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Drought
  14. 14. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Future DROUGHT IPCC SPM WGI (2013) Photo: Jay Janner IPCC – AR5: Likelihood of further changes Early 21st century: low confidence Late 21st century: likely (medium confidence) on a regional to global scale
  15. 15. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Future drought Orlowski & Seneviratne (HESS, 2013) Mediterranean soil moisture drought meteorological drought
  16. 16. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Future drought Orlowski & Seneviratne (HESS, 2013) Mediterranean soil moisture drought Central Europe meteorological drought
  17. 17. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Future drought Mediterranean Number of droughts Wanders & Van Lanen, (NHESSD, 2013)
  18. 18. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Future drought Mediterranean Average drought duration Wanders & Van Lanen, (NHESSD, 2013)
  19. 19. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Future drought Future hydrological drought (model performance past) Van Huigevoort et al. (JoH, 2014) Kolyma (Siberia) Meuse (F-B-NL)
  20. 20. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Future drought Future hydrological drought (change in low flows) Van Huigevoort et al. (JoH, 2014) Kolyma (Siberia) Meuse (F-B-NL)
  21. 21. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Future drought Future hydrological drought (change in low flows) Van Huigevoort et al. (JoH, 2014)
  22. 22. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Future Water stress in Europe Floerke et al. (2011); EEA (2012)
  23. 23. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Challenges (example folllow-up) Dialogue Fora (e.g. scientists, policy makers, stakeholders) Science-Policy interfacing across scales  Case Study Dialogue Platform Fora (6 Case Study Areas)  pan-European Dialogue Platform Forum
  24. 24. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 EU-FP7 DROUGHT-R&SPI Dialogue Fora: different scales/novel formats www.eu-drought.org
  25. 25. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Challenges (examples-follow-up) DROUGHT and WATER SCARCITY platforms: ● EU-WFD Expert Group on Water Scarcity and Drought ● European Drought Centre (EDC) ● European Drought Observatory (EDO) ● GWP Integrated Drought Management Programme (e.g. IDMP CEE)
  26. 26. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 European Drought Centre (EDC) www.geo.uio.no/edc
  27. 27. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 European Drought Centre (EDC) EDC: signing up www.geo.uio.no/edc
  28. 28. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 European Drought Centre (EDC) EDC: signing up www.geo.uio.no/edc
  29. 29. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Drought and Water Scarcity Concluding Remarks ● Observed trends in drought heavily depend on selected period (climate variability vs. change) ● Drought projection are uncertain, but we should distinguish between types/typologies ● Water scarcity depends on socio-economic/environmental scenario we decide to follow ● Drought management is part of integrated land and water management and should combine both natural and social sciences ● Various platforms to exchange knowledge and experiences across drought expertise’ fields
  30. 30. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Thank you

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