IDMP CEE Activity 5.4 by Tamara Tokarczyk

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Drought Risk Management Scheme: a decision support system

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IDMP CEE Activity 5.4 by Tamara Tokarczyk

  1. 1. Activity 5.4 Drought Risk Management Scheme: a decision support system Tamara Tokarczyk Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute POLAND 1st IDMP CEE Workshop, 16th October 2013, Slovakia
  2. 2. The main objective Providing multi-sectoral and international perspective on: • visualization and communication drought hazard (the probability of occurrence of different phases of droughts), • impacts of drought including socio-economic and environmental aspects, • functional risk maps for various end-users and decision makers, in order to develop an integrated framework for drought risk management. The Activity 5.4 concentrate on promoting standard approaches to vulnerability and impact assessment.
  3. 3. Contributing organizations and experts POLAND LITHUANIA ROMANIA • Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute, Wroclaw Branch (IMGW-PIB) Tamara Tokarczyk Wiwiana Szalińska • Institute of Technology and Life Sciences (ITP) Leszek Łabędzki • Vilnus University, Department of Hydrology and Climatology (UV) Gintautas Stankūnavičius, Edvinas Stonevičius • National Meteorological Administaration (NMA) Elena Mateescu • National Research and Development Institute for Soil-Agrochemistry and Environment (ICPA), Bucuresti Catalin Simota
  4. 4. Outputs and milestones 1. Measures for the assessment of susceptibility and vulnerability to drought • 1.1. Identification of the national measures for drought susceptibility (drought hazard) assessment. • 1.2. Identification of the national measures for drought vulnerability assessment 2. Methods for the drought hazard and risk management • 2.1. Developing methodology for drought hazard mapping with the use of measures for drought susceptibility assessment • 2.2. Framing methodology for vulnerability to drought assessment based on available GIS information including population map, type of economic activity map and protected area to showing the potential adverse consequences 3. Framework for Drought Risk Management Scheme • 3.1. Drought Risk Management Scheme for Odra River • 3.2. Recommendations for operational support system in drought risk management
  5. 5. Partner‘s tasks • Developing framework for drought risk mapping scheme on international level, • Demonstrating its application for different drought context and regions, • Estimating meteorological and hydrological drought indices for study basin in Poland • Developing thematic maps for meteorological and hydrological risk presentations • Developing methodology for meteorological and hydrological drought hazard, susceptibility and vulnerability mapping for a river basin • Providing information for agricultural drought risk management in Poland, • Estimating agricultural drought indices for study basin in Poland, • Developing thematic maps for agricultural risk presentations
  6. 6. Partner‘s tasks • Providing information on national context for drought risk mapping scheme, • Developing thematic maps for meteorological and hydrological drought risk presentation, • Developing methodology for hydrological drought hazard, susceptibility and vulnerability mapping for a river basin, • Harmonization of the methodologies for meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought map generation • Providing information on national context for drought risk mapping, • Developing guidelines for drought indicators application including EU resolution and national specifications, • Mapping climatologically characteristics (average summer precipitation, heat waves, droughts, crop sensitivity, soil moisture, etc.) • Providing information for agricultural drought risk management in Romania, • Developing thematic maps for agricultural drought risk presentations, • Developing methodology for agricultural drought hazard, susceptibility and vulnerability mapping for a river basin.
  7. 7. Schedule of milestones 1.1 1.2 2.1 2.2 3.1 3.2 30.12.2013 30.12.2013 30.06.2014 30.06.2014 30.12.2013 15.03.2015
  8. 8. Ongoing work Milestone 1.1. Identification of the national measures for drought susceptibility (drought hazard) assessment • inventory of national data resource available for drought hazard assessment: climate, water, crop and soil parameters • assessment of the adequacy of the existing monitoring networks (meteorological, hydrological, ecological, remote sensing) for drought monitoring on a regular basis • identification and evaluation of existing national comprehensive, integrated drought monitoring systems along with the data delivery and information dissemination to the user community • existing, nationally applied indicators and indices, GIS methods to characterize the magnitude, spatial extend, trends and drought duration • examination of current national arrangements and procedures for coordinating the collection and analysis of meteorological, hydrological and ecological data, data sharing and their applications for drought monitoring, preparedness, mitigation and response.
  9. 9. Ongoing work Milestone 1.2. Identification of the national measures for drought vulnerability assessment (drought impact) • Identification of national vulnerable economic sectors: a) rain-fed agricultural production g) heath b) irrigated agricultural production h) tourism and recreation c) livestock production i) energy d) water quality and available resources j) society e) environment k) education f) transportation l) cost of emergency response programs • Existing, nationally applied indicators and indices to characterize drought impacts: social, economy and environmental parameters, revision of national drought impact records • Elicit key national stakeholders and their needs for information on drought risk on global, regional and local levels and specific requirements for time sensitive decisions.
  10. 10. Ongoing work Milestone 3.1. Drought Risk Management Scheme for Odra River SMOK CBDH real-time measurements, operational database meteorological & hydrological observations databse Pd PF EDI Dd DF FDC Pm Dm SPI SRI drought indicies estimation vulnerability assessment climatological vulnerability streamflow vulnerability SPI-SRI class drought hazard prediction meteorological drought hazard level hydrological drought hazard level reports SH graphs warnings maps products generation data acquisition & management, analysis routines, models, forecasts existing infrastructure SOK Customer Service System developed components Pd – daily precipitation, Pm – monthly precipitation, PF – precipitation forecast Dd – daily discharges, Dm – monthly precipitation, DF – discharge forecast
  11. 11. Implementation plan OUTPUT 2. Methods for the drought hazard and risk management Milestone 2.1. Developing methodology for drought hazard mapping with the use of measures for drought susceptibility assessment. • • • State of the art, ongoing research to characterize and visualize the magnitude, spatial extend and trends, duration and potential impact of droughts on social, environmental and economic aspects of the country/region Capability of the users and policy makers to apply and disseminate the drought indices used and the validation of their appliance Recommendation on standards for drought product visualization Milestone 2.2. Framing methodology for vulnerability to drought assessment based on available GIS information including population map, type of economic activity map and protected area to showing the potential adverse consequences. • Development of risk assessment profiles showing physical, social economic and environmental pressure on a community for global, regional and local scale. Providing regional examples of who and what is at drought risk and why. • Development of criteria to weight the importance of drought impacts and vulnerability factors • Development of common terminology and methodologies to assess drought vulnerability to facilitate the assessment of drought risk across the CEE region at multiple spatial scales • Recommendation on standards for data and products sharing with all sectors concerned with the impact of drought
  12. 12. Thank for your attention!
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