Seguridad Hídrica: Esencial para hacer frente al reto de alimentar a nueve mil millones de personas
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Seguridad Hídrica: Esencial para hacer frente al reto de alimentar a nueve mil millones de personas

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por Dr. Mohamed Ait-Kadi, Presidente del Comité Técnico de GWP. Ponencia Magistral-Foro Seguridad Hídrica y Alimentaria

por Dr. Mohamed Ait-Kadi, Presidente del Comité Técnico de GWP. Ponencia Magistral-Foro Seguridad Hídrica y Alimentaria

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  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
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  • Gracias por el interés y le recomendamos la presentación del J.Saudi en donde se ve la situación de nuestra región centroamericana - en donde a veces cuesta encontrar datos. Saludos.
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  • Es muy interesante ver los datos de las ponencias de expertos, donde nos alertan sobre lo que estamos viviendo ahora en el mundo, siendo la seguridad hidrica nuestra preocupacion para eduacar y capacitar a los menos informados sobre el agua en el planeta, para disminuir la contaminacion de la misma, porque creo que ademas de ser limitada no la estamos cuidando.
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  • The first is an increase in biofuel production. Many governments have set fixed mandates specifying the amount of biofuels to be produced, regardless of food and fuel prices. Biofuel production has absorbed a rapidly increasing share of the US maize crop, for instance. According to OECD/FAO (2011), biofuel production is projected to more than double from 2007–09 to 2019 and biofuel demand is expected to grow fourfold from 2008 to 2035 (IEA 2010). In addition, biofuel support is predicted to increase from US$20 billion in 2009 to US$45 billion by 2020 and to US$65 billion by 2035. At the same time, the environmental benefits of biofuel production are being questioned (Al Riffai, Dimaranan, and Laborde 2010a; Laborde 2011). TODAY close to 35% of the US maize production is used for biofuels!
  • The third factor is related to extreme weather and climate events, which played a role in cutting production by some major food exporters in 2007-08 and in 2010-11. To have a better idea our simulations showed that income and demographic changes between 2010 and 2050 result in price increases that range from 10.8 percent for rice in the optimistic scenario (with high income growth and low population growth) to 53.9 percent for maize in the pessimistic scenario (with low income growth and high population growth). These substantial increases show the underlying pressures on the world food system, even in the unlikely event that perfect mitigation is achieved. With climate change, total price increases will range from 31.2 percent for rice in the optimistic scenario to 100.7 percent for maize in the pessimistic scenario.

Seguridad Hídrica: Esencial para hacer frente al reto de alimentar a nueve mil millones de personas Seguridad Hídrica: Esencial para hacer frente al reto de alimentar a nueve mil millones de personas Presentation Transcript

  • Water Security:A Key Driver of GlobalFood Supplies Pr. Mohamed Ait Kadi Chair GWP Technical Committee San Jose, Costa Rica, August 9, 2012
  • Plan of this talk1. Will food supply keep up with growing demand?2. What are the key levers 0f a solution? M. AIT-KADI
  • Since 1992, 80% of countries have embarked on reforms toimprove the enabling environment for water resourcesmanagement based on the application of integratedapproaches as stated in Agenda 21 and affirmed in theJohannesburg Plan of Implementation UN-Water Status Report for Rio+20
  • 21st Centurya Changing & less Predictable World  Profound changes in price relativities with much local variability  >$100 oil; all fossil fuels more expensive  Other non-renewable raw materials – more expensive  Water - scarcer/costlier many places  Land – more competition  A more unpredictable climate  Future increased dependence on what can be grown – Food, Feed, Fiber and Fuel (4Fs) What hasn’t changed ?  The need to eat ~ 9 billion people by 2050 & changing diets >> The challenge = TO BALANCE FUTURE FOOD DEMAND & SUPPLY SUSTAINABLY M. AIT-KADI
  • Governance Food Security Gaps & Interconnected Global Risks Biodiversity Loss Geopolitical Risks Globalization Water Scarcity Env. Food Economic Risks Risks Food Price Security Volatility Extreme Weather F/D/DES Oil Price Societal Volatility Risks Migration Chronic diseaseM. AIT KADI
  •  Problems can’t be solved by countries acting in isolation 800 140 Corn 120 Wheat 600 100 Rice US$/barrelUS$/ton Oil (right scale) 80 400 60 200 40 20 0 0 Source: von Braun 2008 with data from FAO 2008 and IMF 2008.
  • Diverse policy responses to food crisis Trade Trade Consumer Social Increase restriction liberaliz. subsidy protection supplyAsiaBangladesh X X X XChina X X X XIndia X X X X XIndonesia X X XMalaysia X X XThailand X X XLatin AmericaArgentina X X X XBrazil X X XMexico X X XPeru X X XVenezuela X X X XAfricaEgypt X X X XEthiopia X X X XGhana X XKenya XNigeria X X XTanzania X X X Source: von Braun 2008 with data from IMF, FAO, and news reports, 2007-08.
  • « Land – grabs »
  • Energy Security The volatility in food prices in 2008 should be treated as Food a warning sign of what is to Security come! Political Stability RiotsMohamed AIT KADI GWP/TEC
  • The age of consequences Increasing food insecurity More competition over water resources Migrations Difficulties of supplying cities State failuresMohamed AIT KADI GWP/TEC International conflicts
  • Plan of this talk1. Will food supply keep up with growing demand?2. What are the key levers of a solution? M. AIT-KADI
  • Will Food Supply Keep up With Growing Demand?Drivers of Demand are Well Increased Risk and UncertaintyUnderstood on the Supply Side• Population Growth • Limits to Land, Water, Soils, • All in LDCs Biodiversity, Forests, Fisheries• Income Growth • Slowing Productivity Growth Mostly in LDCs • Stagnant Investment levels in R & D• Urbanization: • Energy prices/High input & Up from 50% to 70% transport costs• Shift in Food Preferences: • Increased Risks and Uncertainty Wheat, Maize & from climate change/variability Soybeans for Feed • Interlinked International Markets• Biofuels: maize, oilseeds (Globalization, Information &• Processed Foods Standards, Supermarkets..) M. AIT-KADI
  • Key Drivers of Global Food Suply1. Growing Scarcity of Water & Land2. Increasing Water & Land Ineslasticities3. Declining Agricultural Productivity4. Threats to Agriculture From Climate Change M. AIT-KADI
  • « Thirst for water & Hunger for Land » Comparing regional long term perspectives M. AIT-KADI
  • Regional per capita availability of water is declining‘000 m3 16 14 Africa 12 10 8 World 6 Asia 4 2 MENA 0 1960 1990 2025
  • Rising Water UseIn The 20th Century, Population Grew Three-fold, ButWater Use Grew Six- fold!
  • Rivers are Overtaxed
  • Underground water is being mined at unsustainable rates and10% of world grain production depends on unsustainable aquifer withdrawals.
  •  Asia will be a major importer (China) WANA also;SSA could feed itself with a low increase of per capita food ratio;Latin America will be a major exporter (Brazil, Argentina) but with important ecological risksCanada and Russia could benefit from climate change and increase their export capacityUSA and EU could increase also but in weak proportions>>> Food self-sufficiency is not a viable option M. AIT-KADI
  • Agrimonde Scenario - 2050% Consumption/Production KCAL Regions Agrimonde Agrimonde1 2003 MENA - 32% - 63% SSA - 12% -53% LA + 11 % + 32% Asia - 2% - 19% Ex-USSR -2% +77% OECD-1990 + 6% + 46% M. AIT-KADI
  • Key Drivers of Global Food Suply1. Growing Scarcity of Water & Land2. Increasing Water & Land Ineslasticities3. Declining Agricultural Productivity4. Threats to Agriculture From Climate Change M. AIT-KADI
  • Changes within the agricultural sectorIncreasing land & water inelasticities M. AIT-KADI
  • Maize production and use for fuel ethanol USA 1995-2010
  • Key Drivers of Global Food Suply1. Growing Scarcity of Water & Land2. Increasing Water & Land Ineslasticities3. Declining Agricultural Productivity4. Threats to Agriculture From Climate Change M. AIT-KADI
  • Decapitalisation of Agriculture 2.5 320 World Bank lending for irrigation 280 2.0 Irrigated Area 240 200 1.5 160 1.0 Food price index 120 80 0.5 40Africa Irrigation 0 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 M. AIT-KADI
  • Agricultural productivity growth is slowingSource: World Bank Development Report 2008 (figure refers to developing countries only) M. AIT-KADI
  • World cereal production: Not growing enough 70% Million tons Total Million tons 1,200 2,000 900 1,600 600 1,200 300 0 800 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* Wheat Coarse grains Rice Total (right) Source: Data from FAO 2003, 2005-07. M. AIT-KADI
  • Key Drivers of Global Food Suply1. Growing Scarcity of Water & Land2. Increasing Water & Land Ineslasticities3. Declining Agricultural Productivity4. Threats to Agriculture From Climate Change M. AIT-KADI
  • Climate Change = A threat multiplier Model-Projected Runoff Change (%) [(2041-2060)-(1900-1970)](Milly et al., 2005)
  • Increased Frequency & Intensity of Floods & Droughts
  • eed to Understand the Complexelations Between Climate, Land/Waterse, Surface/Subsurface Flows + Feed Complex Climateack SUPPLY & DEMAND Relations Multiple-Aquifer Stresses GW/SW Relations Multiple-Aquifer Flow Systems & Flow Directions Regional Flow Systems Modified from Puri & Arnold, 2002
  • Climate change risks Expected impact on agricultural output potential (% change1961-90 compared to 2070-90) Without carbon With carbon fertilization fertilizationWorld -15.9 -3.2Industrial countries -6.3 7.7Developingcountries -19.7 -7.7Middle East/North Africa -21.2 -9.4Morocco -39.0 -29.9 Source: Cline 2007.
  • Daily per capita calorie availability with an without climate changeSource: Food Policy Report, IFPRI, September 2009
  • World food price increases and climate change various scenarios (2010-50)
  • Food Security will Detriorate in its 4 dimensions M. AIT-KADI
  • Conclusion: Long term (2050) global food abundance is not totally guaranteed; No reason to become Malthusian and prophesy famines But the constraints { reduction of availble lands, water scarcity,increased risks of natural disasters, biodiversity loss, social responsiveness} are so important that we have to consider a potential risk for temporary food scarcity, And a long term increase of food prices! M. AIT-KADI
  • Plan of this talk1. Will food supply keep up with growing demand?2. What are the key levers of a solution? M. AIT-KADI
  • A NEW EQUATIONProduce more food;With higher yields;In all kinds of agriculture, mainly poor;With higher input pricesWith climate change (water scarcity, floods, droughts) and need for adaptationBeing environmental friendly,But with better prices!! M. AIT-KADI
  • More food must be produced sustainably through better water management, the spread and implementation of existing knowledge, technology and best practices, and by investments in new science and technology and rural and social infrastructures that enable farmers to benefit from all of these; M. Ait-Kadi
  • More Crop Per Drop!
  • • The political and economic governance of the water and food systems (at both national and international levels) must be improved to increase productivity and sustainbility M.Ait-Kadi
  • Policies to help households copeEliminate agricultural trade barriers, incl. stop biofuel subsidies M.Ait-Kadi
  • Comment nourrir l’humanité? Thank you!This is a unique time in history – decisions made now will disproportionately influence the future !!! M. AIT-KADI