Using Simulation for Decision Support: Lessons Learned from FireGrid

Using Simulation for Decision Support: Lessons Learned from FireGrid Gerhard Wickler1 George Beckett2, Liangxiu Han3, Sung Han Koo4, Stephen Potter1, Gavin Pringle2, Austin Tate1 1:AIAI, 2:EPCC, 3:NeSC, 4:SEE, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom www.ed.ac.uk g.wickler@ed.ac.uk Intelligent Systems @ ISCRAM 2009 1

FireGrid 1000s of sensors Emergency responders Grid Command-and- Control Super- I-X Technologies real-time simulation Computational (HPC) models Intelligent Systems @ ISCRAM 2009 2

FireGrid Final Experiment: Architecture Intelligent Systems @ ISCRAM 2009 3

FireGrid Final Experiment: A Real Fire Intelligent Systems @ ISCRAM 2009 4

FireGrid Final Experiment: User Interface 3D schematized overview of relevant locations for each location: – double traffic light (current/future hazard level) per location – time-line window on demand » time slider » hazard points » beliefs with justifications » link for more information Intelligent Systems @ ISCRAM 2009 5

Lessons Learned: Overview model sensor data interpretation simulation acquisition software HPC / Grid questions: can we re-apply the FireGrid approach for in a different scenario, e.g. FloodGrid, QuakeGrid, PandemicGrid, etc. lessons learned structured according to data flow: – data acquisition from sensors – high-performance computing (HPC) – the Grid – models and simulation – intelligent decision support Intelligent Systems @ ISCRAM 2009 6

Data Acquisition from Sensors: Overview aim: collect raw data from available sensors experiment: ca. 140 sensors of different types (mostly thermocouples) used caveats for lessons learned: – sensors used were simple: single quantity at specific location; no image data used/analysed – sensors were pre-installed: exact number and location known; may not be possible in other scenarios (e.g. oil spill) Intelligent Systems @ ISCRAM 2009 7

Data Acquisition from Sensors: Lessons Learned (1) Is all the data required by the models actually available? – problem: models may demand inputs that cannot be measured realistically, e.g. location of furniture, heat release rates over time – problem: number and location of sensors, e.g. centre of room not practical Can the sensor data be channelled to and processed by the simulator? – problem: data logger is set up to write to file, e.g. when aim is post-experimental data analysis – problem: data is in proprietary format, e.g. to protect commercial interest Intelligent Systems @ ISCRAM 2009 8

Data Acquisition from Sensors: Lessons Learned (2) At what frequency can sensor values be expected? – not a problem in FireGrid – problem: sensor readings not synchronized Is there an ontology that describes the required sensor types? – problem: design database to hold sensor readings Is there a reliable way of grading the sensor output? – problem: failing or dislocated sensors give incorrect readings resulting in poor predictions » sensor grading: decide which sensor readings are to be believed » developed a constraint-based algorithm that results in a consistent picture (minimize violated constraints) Intelligent Systems @ ISCRAM 2009 9

High Performance Computing: Lessons Learned (1) How fast does the simulation run on a “normal” computer? – problem: linear speed-up might not be sufficient; expected speed-up due to multiple processors; linear speed-up is best case – problem: current CFD model for fires do not scale well What is the execution bottleneck for the simulation? – problem: computational bottleneck may be input/output operations; using multiple CPUs will not provide solution – problem: inter-process communication may slow down computation Intelligent Systems @ ISCRAM 2009 10

High Performance Computing: Lessons Learned (2) Is the model implementation suitable for running on a (parallel) HPC resource? – problem: domain experts often produce serial code; need to parallelize the simulation software – approach: ensemble computing (used in FireGrid) Can the existing implementation be compiled on the HPC resource? – problem: simulator (in Fortran) using non-standard features; need to port to HPC platform using different compiler and libraries How quickly do simulators need to start running? – problem: batch system causes delay on HPC Intelligent Systems @ ISCRAM 2009 11

The Grid: Background aim: use Grid to provide on-demand access to HPC resources Grid: “… a form of distributed computing whereby a quot;super and virtual computerquot; is composed of a cluster of networked, loosely coupled computers, acting in concert to perform very large tasks. […] What distinguishes grid computing from conventional cluster computing systems is that grids tend to be more loosely coupled, heterogeneous, and geographically dispersed.” issues: – not aiming to fully exploit Grid capabilities – pre-installation of simulation software on heterogeneous systems very difficult Intelligent Systems @ ISCRAM 2009 12

The Grid: Lessons Learned How many (heterogeneous) computing resources should be available through the Grid? – advice: start with small number (one + one spare); minimizes porting effort Is there a Grid expert available? – problem: software for accessing the Grid seems still experimental Can the simulator be adapted to the resource it is running on? – problem: Grid provides unified interface, but setting parameters may be necessary to get optimal performance out of an HPC resource Intelligent Systems @ ISCRAM 2009 13

Models and Simulation: Lessons Learned Have the models ever been used to generate predictions? – problem: models developed in research context; usable for predictions? validation? Can the simulation be “calibrated on the fly”? – problem: model may not be able to assimilate live sensor data – FireGrid approach: parameter-sweep Can the model be used to address “what-if” questions? – problem: model does not take into account hypothetical actions of emergency responders Can the model assess the accuracy of its own results? – problem: responders need confidence in model Intelligent Systems @ ISCRAM 2009 14

Intelligent Decision Support: Lessons Learned Are the model outputs in terms the emergency responders can understand? – problem: model output is large amounts of numbers; need to be contextualized and interpreted; – approaches: AI system vs. expert at emergency Is there a set of standard operating procedures available? – SOPs: give ways in which task can be accomplished; preconditions represent kind of information decision makers need to know Can uncertainty about the model results be conveyed to the user in a useful way? – problem: what do percentages mean? Intelligent Systems @ ISCRAM 2009 15

Conclusions aim of this paper: provide lessons learned for people trying to build a system that: – uses (large amounts of) sensor data to – steer a super-real-time simulation that – generates predictions which are the basis for – decision support for emergency responders. but: for a different type of scenario/model, e.g. – an oil spill simulator – a flood simulator (for a river) creating such a system requires experts from a variety of technical domains, and pitfalls that are obvious to an expert in one field may be far from it to an expert in a different field, even if they are all experts in computing! Intelligent Systems @ ISCRAM 2009 16

Using Simulation for Decision Support: Lessons Learned from FireGrid

by gwickler on May 15, 2009

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Using Simulation for Decision Support: Lessons Learned from FireGrid — Presentation Transcript