Cees de Haan Consultant World Bank Where are the livestock - in what systems, what genetic background and what do they eat? With some implications

Overview of presentation Production and consumption trends The Livestock Revolution Demand and supply drivers Including feed and genetics Systems and location Implications for the three public goods Equity, environment and health

Production and consumption trends

The Livestock Revolution

Demand and supply drivers

Including feed and genetics

Systems and location

Implications for the three public goods

Equity, environment and health

Production and consumption trends

Trends World Meat Production and Trade Source FAOSTAT

Consumption levels Source FAOSTAT

Trends Global food consumption growth Source OECD-FAO 2008

Drivers

Demand drivers Population Growth Source: UN 2003 millions

Demand drivers Urbanization number of persons Source: UN 2003

Demand drivers Higher income, higher meat consumption Source Delgado et al (1999)

Demand drivers Income Growth Per capita GDP growth rates at market prices Source: WB 2005

Supply Drivers: Livestock Technology index; 1961=100 Source: LLS (2006)

Supply drivers Genetics Source Collin et al (2008)

Supply drivers Narrowing genetic base Holstein-Friesian now in 128 countries, Large White pigs in 117. Of the 7544 local breeds 1491 are at risk. Highest share in Europe and Americas. Policies often promote exotic breeds Subsidized or free AI and subsidized feed; Advice and extension etc. Source: FAO (2007)

Holstein-Friesian now in 128 countries, Large White pigs in 117.

Of the 7544 local breeds 1491 are at risk. Highest share in Europe and Americas.

Policies often promote exotic breeds

Subsidized or free AI and subsidized feed;

Advice and extension etc.

Supply Drivers Grain prices and regional use Maize, US, US$ per bushel, deflated Source: LLS (2006) and FAOSTAT

Supply drivers Feed categories consumption Source FAOSTAT

Where are they?

Where are they? Estimated distribution of livestock production systems Source: LLS (2006)

Trends Regional meat production Million metric tons Source: LLS (2006)

Where are they? Production systems Source: LLS (2006)

Where are they? Geographical shift over time Four movements Dispersed w/access to local markets Close to markets (poor transport infrastructure) Close to feed resources (developed transport infrastructure) In areas characterized by low human population density (environmental regulations)

Four movements

Dispersed w/access to local markets

Close to markets (poor transport infrastructure)

Close to feed resources (developed transport infrastructure)

In areas characterized by low human population density (environmental regulations)

Where are they? Location of industrial pig sector in southern Viet Nam Source: LLS (2006)

Where are they? South Brazil - Geographical shifts 1992 - 2001 period Hens birds/year/mun. Soy bean tons/year/mun. Humans persons/year/mun. Swine heads/year/mun.

Where are they? Enterprise form Livestock is important for the poor More than 950 million have livestock at least as a part of their livelihood, be it for income, food security, traction and fertilizer Smallholders dominate in most developing countries Indonesia: Only 3 percent poultry meat from large farms India: 5.5 percent of national workforce in dairy sector But larger commercial enterprises are substituting in middle income countries.

Livestock is important for the poor

More than 950 million have livestock at least as a part of their livelihood, be it for income, food security, traction and fertilizer

Smallholders dominate in most developing countries

Indonesia: Only 3 percent poultry meat from large farms

India: 5.5 percent of national workforce in dairy sector

But larger commercial enterprises are substituting in middle income countries.

Some Implications for global public goods Environment Social equity Public Health

Environmental effects Negative: Use one third of arable land, contributed to 20 percent rangeland degradation, 18 percent of anthropogenic GHG emission 15 percent of global agriculture water evapo-transpiration Bio-diversity threat to 306 of the 825 terrestrial eco-regions and loss of domestic animal genetic resources Positive Potential for carbon sequestration Energy savings ¼ cultivated w/ animal traction Fertilizer savings Could supply 50 percent of nutrients GHG emission per kg product declining?

Negative:

Use one third of arable land, contributed to 20 percent rangeland degradation,

18 percent of anthropogenic GHG emission

15 percent of global agriculture water evapo-transpiration

Bio-diversity threat to 306 of the 825 terrestrial eco-regions and loss of domestic animal genetic resources

Positive

Potential for carbon sequestration

Energy savings

¼ cultivated w/ animal traction

Fertilizer savings

Could supply 50 percent of nutrients

The equity implications Smallholders are not benefitting from Livestock Revolution China: 70 million poultry farm exits between 1996 and 2005 Brazil: 30 percent decline in dairy farmers around Rio between 1997 and 2000 Thailand: Major decline in smallholder poultry But is a push or a pull??

Smallholders are not benefitting from Livestock Revolution

China: 70 million poultry farm exits between 1996 and 2005

Brazil: 30 percent decline in dairy farmers around Rio between 1997 and 2000

Thailand: Major decline in smallholder poultry

But is a push or a pull??

The health implications Negative Zoonotic and potential pandemic diseases; One new emerging disease each year , of which 75 percent zoonotic. Economic impact considerable; Of 1415 known pathogens, 62 percent of animal origin; 1.6 million annual TB fatalities of which 2-15 percent (?) of bovine origin; Food borne pathogens important contributor to diarrheal diseases. Contribution to obesity and other food related health risks Positive Provision of critical nutrients to vulnerable groups Strong relationship between intake of animal source food and growth, cognitive behavior in children and pregnant and nursing women morbidity

Negative

Zoonotic and potential pandemic diseases;

One new emerging disease each year , of which 75 percent zoonotic. Economic impact considerable;

Of 1415 known pathogens, 62 percent of animal origin;

1.6 million annual TB fatalities of which 2-15 percent (?) of bovine origin;

Food borne pathogens important contributor to diarrheal diseases.

Contribution to obesity and other food related health risks

Positive

Provision of critical nutrients to vulnerable groups

Strong relationship between intake of animal source food and growth, cognitive behavior in children and pregnant and nursing women morbidity

Conclusion Reduce consumption? Unlikely in the developing world Make it safer and more sustainable Internalize externalities but will result in higher price Increase the share of the poor in the benefits of the Livestock Revolution Higher environmental (GCC) and public health risks

Reduce consumption?

Unlikely in the developing world

Make it safer and more sustainable

Internalize externalities but will result in higher price

Increase the share of the poor in the benefits of the Livestock Revolution

Higher environmental (GCC) and public health risks

Editorial: Meat and the Planet …… .. There are no easy trade-offs when it comes to global warming — such as cutting back on cattle to make room for cars. The human passion for meat is certainly not about to end anytime soon. As “Livestock’s Long Shadow” makes clear, our health and the health of the planet depend on pushing livestock production in more sustainable directions. NYT, December 27, 2006