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MEGATRENDS
BOOSTING IMAGINATION AND INNOVATION
Gloria Álvarez Hernández, EMEA Sales Operations, Alcatel-Lucent
Smirt Collins, Market & Consumer Insights, Alcatel-Lucent
November 2012


                                  COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
PALEOFUTURE
ONCE IMAGINED FUTURES
ARTS                                                                       LITERATURE & CINEMA




TECHNOLOGY
1999: 2010 NTT Docomo vision                         2009: LTE vision. Alcatel-Lucent                  2010: NTT Docomo vision
2007: 2010 NTT Docomo vision, Old friends            2009: Mocom 2020 vision                           2010: 2014 Future of screen
2008: Nokia morph nanotechnology                     2009: Nokia vision 2015                           2010: Forbes Your life in 2020
                                                     2009: The Wireless Future of Medicine             2011: A day made of glass
                                                                                                       2012: Project Glass: One day
Source:
Paleofuture, concept invented by Mark Novak www.paleofuture.com; Villamard: http://www.urbanghostsmedia.com/2011/03/1910-vintage-postcards-
depict-year-2000/; http://www.flickr.com/photos/amphalon/sets/72157615623434624/with/3367567475/ ; Literature & Cinema: Google images;
Technology: 2012 @guirepso several resources @ http://www.scoop.it/t/paleofuture RESERVED.
                                                      COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS
KEY CONCEPTS IN SCENARII PLANNING
                          MICROTREND                     TREND                COUNTER /               WILD CARD               MEGATREND
                          Seed of Change,                                     ANTI TREND
                            Week Signal




                        • Mini trend                • Behavior Pattern       • Reaction to a          • Low probability    • Significant global
                        • Uncertain future            in economic,             trend                  • High potential       change, Inevitable
                        • Notable change              environmental,         • Low impact               impact on          • Several trends collide
                          with very limited           social conditions                                 society              and generate a
 DEFINITION
                          effects, Low impact       • Medium impact                                                          megatrend
 IMPACT                                                                                                                    • Wide-reaching impact
                        • Maybe a starting
                          trend or only                                                                                      on society
                          regional


                                                                                                      • Short/Mid/
 TIMING                 • Short /Mid term           • Mid /Long term         • Mid/Long term
                                                                                                        Long term
                                                                                                                           • Mid/Long term


                        • “moustache”               • Mobile                 • Low “de-tech”          • Tsunami            • Aging population
                          fashion                     penetration              services               • Terrorist attack   • 24x7 Connectivity
                        • Secure information        • Smartphones            • Open data vs           • Earthquake         • Neo-urbanization
 EXAMPLES
                          in Africa                 • Health                   Privacy
                        • Self suficient house        applications           • “Rural turning”

Source: Gloria Alvarez Hernández & Smirt Collins, Alcatel-Lucent 2012 based on several resources
http://ew.eea.europa.eu/research/info_resources/reports/Final_Literature_Review_Report_FINNov07_9473.pdf
Trends and Megatrends - Ullrich Lorenz & Alexander Storch, Umweltbundesamt – 2010
iKnow several studies – 2011
                                                        COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Alcatel-Lucent megatrends research
MEGATRENDS FRAMEWORK




                                       4
             COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
                         2011
THE STORY OF MEGATRENDS

                                     1980
                                    Naisbitt
                                   invented
                                 the concept
 PEOPLE
ORGANIZATIONS




                BUSINESS
                SCHOOLS    GOVERNMENT/EU VENDORS                                                       CONSULTING COMPANIES

   http://www.scoop.it/t/megatrend             COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
MEGATRENDS RESEARCH
ALCATEL-LUCENT
• Methodology: Expert International Workshop
• Participants: ENCP Business School, Alcatel-Lucent and Telecommunication companies
• Results: Key megatrends impacting ICT sector, megatrends and trends map, market analysis*, blog
  series**




* http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/
                                                       COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
** http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/blogs/corporate/tag/megatrends/
7 MEGATRENDS + 2 IN PROGRESS



           168                              DIGITAL NATIVE                                        ED-YOU-CATION
  “ALWAYS ON” GENERATION                    ACCELERATION                                   INDIVIDUAL CENTERED LEARNING




  SUSTAINABLE BY DESIGN                  REJUVENAGING                                        NETIZENS TO GOVERNMENT
     SUSTAINABILITY AS A      RAPIDLY-INCREASING LIFE EXPECTANCIES                           DIGITAL MEDIA EMPOWERING
   COMPETITIVE IMPERATIVE                                                                             CITIZENS
                                              EN PROCESO




                                                                                                 EN PROCESO
NEO-URBANIZATION BLURRING                                  B2SHE                                              DEVICEOLOGY
    BOUNDARIES BETWEEN
 URBAN, SUBURBAN, AND RURAL
                                                     DIGITAL NATIVE ACCELERATION VIDEO
                                                             7
                                                     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXV-yaFmQNk&feature=youtube_gdata_player
                                COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
                                            2011
USING MEGATRENDS
CREATE INNOVATIONS

   • Mentoring program
     Creativity and innovation sessions

   • Women professionals across different sectors
     Telecommunications, education, retail & food, consulting,
     services, entrepreneurship

   • Techniques and methods




   • Results
     During our sessions two of my entrepreneur mentees discovered
     tangible areas of innovation for their own businesses

                            COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
USING MEGATRENDS
IDENTIFY, ANALIZE AND ASSESS STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES

1   Ideation, imagination
    84 opportunities identified




2   Categorization, grouping, filtering, selection
    8 strategic projects selected




                          COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
USING MEGATRENDS
DEVELOPE FUTURE VISIONS

        Analyzing megatrends                                                                                          New visions and
        intersection - megatrends impact                                                                              business models
        on other megatrends

                             Neo-urbanization



 168 (24x7                                                          Sustainable
 Connectivity)                                                      by design



                               Ed-you-cation


Megatrends
http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-neo-urbanization.php
http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-sustainable-by-design.php
http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-ed-you-cation.php
http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-168-24x7.php




                                                                           COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
CONCLUSIONS


1. Analysis of Megatrends a key tool for sensing the future
2. Combining creativity and innovation tools together with
   megatrends tool can help to generate new visions,
   strategies and translate in product, market and customer
   innovations




                       COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
CONTACT DETAILS



      Gloria Alvarez Hernández
      EMEA Sales Operations, Alcatel-Lucent
      Twitter: @guirepso




      Smirt Collins
      Market & Consumer Insights, Alcatel-Lucent
      Twitter: @SmirtCollins




                        COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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Megatrends boosting imagination and innovation

  • 1. MEGATRENDS BOOSTING IMAGINATION AND INNOVATION Gloria Álvarez Hernández, EMEA Sales Operations, Alcatel-Lucent Smirt Collins, Market & Consumer Insights, Alcatel-Lucent November 2012 COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 2. PALEOFUTURE ONCE IMAGINED FUTURES ARTS LITERATURE & CINEMA TECHNOLOGY 1999: 2010 NTT Docomo vision 2009: LTE vision. Alcatel-Lucent 2010: NTT Docomo vision 2007: 2010 NTT Docomo vision, Old friends 2009: Mocom 2020 vision 2010: 2014 Future of screen 2008: Nokia morph nanotechnology 2009: Nokia vision 2015 2010: Forbes Your life in 2020 2009: The Wireless Future of Medicine 2011: A day made of glass 2012: Project Glass: One day Source: Paleofuture, concept invented by Mark Novak www.paleofuture.com; Villamard: http://www.urbanghostsmedia.com/2011/03/1910-vintage-postcards- depict-year-2000/; http://www.flickr.com/photos/amphalon/sets/72157615623434624/with/3367567475/ ; Literature & Cinema: Google images; Technology: 2012 @guirepso several resources @ http://www.scoop.it/t/paleofuture RESERVED. COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS
  • 3. KEY CONCEPTS IN SCENARII PLANNING MICROTREND TREND COUNTER / WILD CARD MEGATREND Seed of Change, ANTI TREND Week Signal • Mini trend • Behavior Pattern • Reaction to a • Low probability • Significant global • Uncertain future in economic, trend • High potential change, Inevitable • Notable change environmental, • Low impact impact on • Several trends collide with very limited social conditions society and generate a DEFINITION effects, Low impact • Medium impact megatrend IMPACT • Wide-reaching impact • Maybe a starting trend or only on society regional • Short/Mid/ TIMING • Short /Mid term • Mid /Long term • Mid/Long term Long term • Mid/Long term • “moustache” • Mobile • Low “de-tech” • Tsunami • Aging population fashion penetration services • Terrorist attack • 24x7 Connectivity • Secure information • Smartphones • Open data vs • Earthquake • Neo-urbanization EXAMPLES in Africa • Health Privacy • Self suficient house applications • “Rural turning” Source: Gloria Alvarez Hernández & Smirt Collins, Alcatel-Lucent 2012 based on several resources http://ew.eea.europa.eu/research/info_resources/reports/Final_Literature_Review_Report_FINNov07_9473.pdf Trends and Megatrends - Ullrich Lorenz & Alexander Storch, Umweltbundesamt – 2010 iKnow several studies – 2011 COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Alcatel-Lucent megatrends research
  • 4. MEGATRENDS FRAMEWORK 4 COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 2011
  • 5. THE STORY OF MEGATRENDS 1980 Naisbitt invented the concept PEOPLE ORGANIZATIONS BUSINESS SCHOOLS GOVERNMENT/EU VENDORS CONSULTING COMPANIES http://www.scoop.it/t/megatrend COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 6. MEGATRENDS RESEARCH ALCATEL-LUCENT • Methodology: Expert International Workshop • Participants: ENCP Business School, Alcatel-Lucent and Telecommunication companies • Results: Key megatrends impacting ICT sector, megatrends and trends map, market analysis*, blog series** * http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/ COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ** http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/blogs/corporate/tag/megatrends/
  • 7. 7 MEGATRENDS + 2 IN PROGRESS 168 DIGITAL NATIVE ED-YOU-CATION “ALWAYS ON” GENERATION ACCELERATION INDIVIDUAL CENTERED LEARNING SUSTAINABLE BY DESIGN REJUVENAGING NETIZENS TO GOVERNMENT SUSTAINABILITY AS A RAPIDLY-INCREASING LIFE EXPECTANCIES DIGITAL MEDIA EMPOWERING COMPETITIVE IMPERATIVE CITIZENS EN PROCESO EN PROCESO NEO-URBANIZATION BLURRING B2SHE DEVICEOLOGY BOUNDARIES BETWEEN URBAN, SUBURBAN, AND RURAL DIGITAL NATIVE ACCELERATION VIDEO 7 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXV-yaFmQNk&feature=youtube_gdata_player COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 2011
  • 8. USING MEGATRENDS CREATE INNOVATIONS • Mentoring program Creativity and innovation sessions • Women professionals across different sectors Telecommunications, education, retail & food, consulting, services, entrepreneurship • Techniques and methods • Results During our sessions two of my entrepreneur mentees discovered tangible areas of innovation for their own businesses COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 9. USING MEGATRENDS IDENTIFY, ANALIZE AND ASSESS STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES 1 Ideation, imagination 84 opportunities identified 2 Categorization, grouping, filtering, selection 8 strategic projects selected COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 10. USING MEGATRENDS DEVELOPE FUTURE VISIONS Analyzing megatrends New visions and intersection - megatrends impact business models on other megatrends Neo-urbanization 168 (24x7 Sustainable Connectivity) by design Ed-you-cation Megatrends http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-neo-urbanization.php http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-sustainable-by-design.php http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-ed-you-cation.php http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-168-24x7.php COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 11. CONCLUSIONS 1. Analysis of Megatrends a key tool for sensing the future 2. Combining creativity and innovation tools together with megatrends tool can help to generate new visions, strategies and translate in product, market and customer innovations COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 12. CONTACT DETAILS Gloria Alvarez Hernández EMEA Sales Operations, Alcatel-Lucent Twitter: @guirepso Smirt Collins Market & Consumer Insights, Alcatel-Lucent Twitter: @SmirtCollins COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 13. COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 14. COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.