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Space and sustainability BIS seminar 25th March 2009
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Space and sustainability BIS seminar 25th March 2009

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Updated presentation on space and sustainability presented to BIS seminar; "Can space save the earth?". 25th March 2009

Updated presentation on space and sustainability presented to BIS seminar; "Can space save the earth?". 25th March 2009

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    • 1. Space Tourism And Sustainability Steven Fawkes 24 th March 2009
    • 2. Space Tourism and Sustainable Development Sustainable development is a vital issue Space tourism links to sustainable development on several levels Space tourism can make a significant positive impact on global sustainability Space tourism industry needs to acknowledge the links
    • 3. Sustainable Development development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs The Brundtland Commission 1987
      • MAJOR INTERCONNECTED ISSUES:
      • Population growth
      • Wealth distribution
      • Resources:
        • Water
        • Energy
        • Minerals
        • Food
      • Environment:
        • Atmosphere
        • Land
        • Sea
      • Culture:
        • Excessive materialism
        • Disaffection – lack of purpose – lack of satisfaction
        • Move away from science and technology
    • 4. Population Growth
      • 2000: 6 billion
      • 2050: 9 billion
    • 5. Population Growth - Cities
      • 2000: 3 billion
      • 2030: 5 billion
    • 6. Population Growth – Mega-Cities
      • 2000: 14
      • 2030: 22
    • 7. Wealth Distribution
    • 8. Energy - inequality Per capita energy use India Europe USA
    • 9. Energy – oil dependence 6 Current energy trends are patently unsustainable – socially, environmentally, economically IEA Saudi Arabias needed by 2030 to offset demand growth and production decline IEA
    • 10. Mineral Resources Providing today’s developed country level of services for copper worldwide (as well as for zinc and, perhaps, platinum) would appear to require conversion of essentially all of the ore in the lithosphere to stock-in-use plus near-complete recycling of the metals from that point forward. R.B.Gordon, M. Bertram and T.E. Graedel Yale University Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 23 rd Jan 2006
    • 11. Eco Footprints USA Malawi UK Brazil China India
    • 12. Resources
    • 13. The Environment – Air Pollution premature deaths a year World Health Organisation 2 million air pollution related deaths a year in China World Bank 170,000
    • 14. The Environment – Climate Change Pre-industrial : 280 ppm Now: 368 ppm 2100: 540 – 970 ppm 1.4 o C – 5.8 o C
    • 15. Space Tourism and Sustainable Development
      • may seem incompatible but…links on several levels:
      • operational
      • cultural
      • economic
      • resources
      • science
      • survival
    • 16. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Operations
      • Design of ground based facilities:
        • energy
        • resource use
        • sustainable design and operation
      • Design of vehicles:
        • emissions (need holistic analysis)
        • cradle to cradle “ C2C ” design
      • Carbon offsets:
    • 17. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Operations
      • FAILURE TO BUILD SUSTAINABILITY INTO ANY BUSINESS IS NOW A MAJOR BUSINESS RISK:
      • Market perception risk
      • Regulatory risk
      • Social pressure risk (NGOs/public opinion)
    • 18. BE CONSISTENT: Failure to be consistent is a business risk Space Tourism and Sustainability – Operations
    • 19. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture
      • POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF SPACE TOURISM ON CULTURE :
        • environmental consciousness
        • inspiration
          • resurgence of science and engineering
        • the frontier culture
        • sense of purpose
        • optimism
    • 20. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture Did this photo kick-start the mass environmental movement?
    • 21. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture Before I flew, I was already aware of how small and vulnerable our planet is; but only when I saw it from space, in all its ineffable beauty and fragility, did I realize that humankind's most urgent task is to cherish and preserve it for future generations. Sigmund Jaehn, first German Cosmonaut Nothing could have prepared me for the beauty of the view. It was breathtaking – watching the Earth from above without seeing borders, wars and divisions and realising how fragile the planet is. Every world leader should make the trip. They ’ d start to see things differently. Anousheh Ansari , private space explorer
    • 22. “ Nothing could have prepared me for the beauty of the view. It was breathtaking – watching the Earth from above without seeing borders, wars and divisions and realising how fragile the planet is. Every world leader should make the trip. They ’ d start to see things differently. ” Anousheh Ansari Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture
    • 23. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture "The way I want to inspire kids is to fly to space and let them know that they can too ” Burt Rutan “ Space, the final frontier ” Star Trek “ Where there is no vision the people perish ” Solomon, Proverbs 29 v8
    • 24. Perhaps the core message is that evolution and exploration are inseparable, that the curious intellect and the wondering spirit are the evolutionary process from inside. They are the hallmarks of humanity and the true propellants of spaceflight. Wyn Wachorst Man must explore and this is exploration at its greatest . Dave Scott, Apollo 15 Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture
    • 25. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Economics
      • Space tourism revenue forecasts:
        • $100 billion/year by 2030
        • $1 trillion/year by 2060
      • Patrick Collins
      • Space tourism facts:
      • $1 billion committed investment in spaceports - 2006
      • A NEW INDUSTRY:
      What this country needs is a really good $500 billion technology - something to reignite popular enthusiasm and the economy. R Samuelson, Washington Post
    • 26. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Resources 3554 Amun, a mile wide lump of iron, nickel, cobalt, platinum, and other metals that has an orbit closely resembling that of the Earth ’ s ……… .3554 Amun contains thirty times as much metal as has ever been mined by human beings in the history of Earth. It ’ s value, at current prices and if mined slowly to keep commodity prices level, is estimated to be 20 trillion dollars. John S. Lewis
    • 27. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Energy Dispatchable Generation Capacity (GW) 2006 2100 USA 1,076 1,754 World 4,000 17,543 Is SPS part of the solution?
    • 28. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Energy Lunar helium–3 for fusion power Estimated value: $140 million/100 kg But one assumption that I know will be justified is that the Moon, the near-Earth asteroids, and the rest of the solar system contain the resources that will take mankind to the next level of civilization and prosperity. Mike Griffin, former NASA Administrator
    • 29.
      • Low cost access to space = more “bang for the buck” in:
      • Earth observation
      • Space environment
      • Astronomy
      Space Tourism and Sustainability - Science
    • 30. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival
      • “ 20 ways the world could end ” include:
        • Pandemic
        • Nuclear war
        • Gamma ray burst
        • Asteroid impact
        • Mega tsunami
        • Super volcanoes
        • Catastrophic climate change etc etc
    • 31. If we were up there among the planets, if there were self-sufficient human communities on many worlds, our species would be insulated from catastrophe. Carl Sagan Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival The long-term survival of the human race is at risk as long as it is confined to a single planet……Sooner or later, disasters such as an asteroid collision or nuclear war could wipe us all out. But once we spread out into space and establish independent colonies, our future should be safe. Stephen Hawking
    • 32. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival The real space race is between spaceflight and extinction J. Richard Gott
    • 33. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Conclusions
      • Space Tourism is coming soon
      • Sustainable Development reflects real problems
      • Space Tourism is linked to Sustainable Development through:
        • operations
        • culture
        • economics
        • resources
        • science
        • survival
    • 34. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Conclusions
      • Space Tourism seen as in opposition to Sustainable Development
      • Space Tourism needs to mitigate business risks by d esigning sustainability into operations and systems
      • Sustainable Development is more than just a “compliance issue” for Space Tourism
    • 35.
      • Space Tourism can have a material positive effect on sustainability on several levels:
      • Cultural
      • Economic
      • Resources
      • Science
      • Survival
      Space Tourism needs to make these connections We need Space Tourism (= low cost access to space) sooner rather than later Space Tourism and Sustainability - Conclusions
    • 36.
      • We need both!
      • Steven Fawkes
      • 2009
      • [email_address]
      Space Tourism and Sustainability

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