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Atca Summit When Willx Tca Take Off080107
 

Atca Summit When Willx Tca Take Off080107

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  • AdvancedTCA Summit - Europe Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • AdvancedTCA Summit - Europe Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • AdvancedTCA Summit - Europe Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • AdvancedTCA Summit - Europe Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • AdvancedTCA Summit - Europe Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • AdvancedTCA Summit - Europe Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • AdvancedTCA Summit - Europe Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007

Atca Summit When Willx Tca Take Off080107 Atca Summit When Willx Tca Take Off080107 Presentation Transcript

  • Waiting for Godot: When Will xTCA Become Reality? B.W.Stuck Executive Chairman CorEdge Networks Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • It Is All About Gross Margin
    • 1970s: Proprietary Computer Systems
      • IBM, DEC, HP.. 70%+ gross margins
    • 2000s: PC Open Standards Computer Systems
      • Dell, Lenova.. 30% gross margins
    • 2000s: Proprietary Network Equipment
      • Cisco, Ericsson, Alcatel/Lucent..70% gross margins
    • 2010s: Open Standards Network Equipment
      • New entrants with 30% gross margins
    Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • Network Equipment System Value Add Gross Margin Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • Virtuous Economic Cycle
    • Technology Dictates New Design Point
      • 1965: Peak growth rate for mainframes
      • 1972: Peak growth rate for minicomputers
      • 1979: Peak growth rate for personal computers
      • 1986: Peak growth rate for workstations
      • 1993: Peak growth rate for cellular handsets
    • Customers Buy Platforms Based on New Design Point
    • Volumes Increase->Costs Drop->Prices Drop
    • Customers Buy More Platforms at Lower Cost
    • At Some Point, New Design Point
    Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • Bill of Materials Cost Trends Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • Design Goals vs Reality
    • 2006 Goals
      • ATCA: US$5,000 per empty chassis
      • microTCA: US$500 per empty chassis
    • 2006 Reality
      • ATCA: US$10,000 per empty chassis
      • microTCA: US$2,500 per empty chassis
    • 2008 Goals
      • ATCA: US$3,000 per empty chassis
      • microTCA: US$300 per empty chassis
    • 2008 Reality
      • ATCA: US$5,000 per empty chassis
      • microTCA: US$750 per empty chassis
    Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • Design Goals Are Becoming Deliverable Reality
    • New business model: open systems
    • Value accrues to component makers, not system vendors
    • Multiple third parties working on components to drive costs down as volumes increase
    • Ecosystem generates positive feedback with end users, contract manufacturers, developers
    • Lower first cost
    • Lower life cycle costs
    • Lower total cost of ownership
    Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • B.W.Stuck Background
    • Managing Director, Signal Lake, early stage venture capital fund (Westport CT, Boston MA), 1998-
    • 450+ consulting engagements, $60B+ in capital placements, 1984-1998
    • Bell Laboratories, 1972-1984
    • SBEE, SMEE 1969, ScD 1972, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    • http://signallake.com/ for contact information