Atca Summit When Willx Tca Take Off080107

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  • AdvancedTCA Summit - Europe Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • AdvancedTCA Summit - Europe Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • AdvancedTCA Summit - Europe Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • AdvancedTCA Summit - Europe Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • AdvancedTCA Summit - Europe Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • AdvancedTCA Summit - Europe Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • AdvancedTCA Summit - Europe Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
  • Atca Summit When Willx Tca Take Off080107

    1. 1. Waiting for Godot: When Will xTCA Become Reality? B.W.Stuck Executive Chairman CorEdge Networks Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
    2. 2. It Is All About Gross Margin <ul><li>1970s: Proprietary Computer Systems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>IBM, DEC, HP.. 70%+ gross margins </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2000s: PC Open Standards Computer Systems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dell, Lenova.. 30% gross margins </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2000s: Proprietary Network Equipment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cisco, Ericsson, Alcatel/Lucent..70% gross margins </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2010s: Open Standards Network Equipment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New entrants with 30% gross margins </li></ul></ul>Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
    3. 3. Network Equipment System Value Add Gross Margin Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
    4. 4. Virtuous Economic Cycle <ul><li>Technology Dictates New Design Point </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1965: Peak growth rate for mainframes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1972: Peak growth rate for minicomputers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1979: Peak growth rate for personal computers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1986: Peak growth rate for workstations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1993: Peak growth rate for cellular handsets </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Customers Buy Platforms Based on New Design Point </li></ul><ul><li>Volumes Increase->Costs Drop->Prices Drop </li></ul><ul><li>Customers Buy More Platforms at Lower Cost </li></ul><ul><li>At Some Point, New Design Point </li></ul>Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
    5. 5. Bill of Materials Cost Trends Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
    6. 6. Design Goals vs Reality <ul><li>2006 Goals </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ATCA: US$5,000 per empty chassis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>microTCA: US$500 per empty chassis </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2006 Reality </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ATCA: US$10,000 per empty chassis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>microTCA: US$2,500 per empty chassis </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2008 Goals </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ATCA: US$3,000 per empty chassis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>microTCA: US$300 per empty chassis </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2008 Reality </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ATCA: US$5,000 per empty chassis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>microTCA: US$750 per empty chassis </li></ul></ul>Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
    7. 7. Design Goals Are Becoming Deliverable Reality <ul><li>New business model: open systems </li></ul><ul><li>Value accrues to component makers, not system vendors </li></ul><ul><li>Multiple third parties working on components to drive costs down as volumes increase </li></ul><ul><li>Ecosystem generates positive feedback with end users, contract manufacturers, developers </li></ul><ul><li>Lower first cost </li></ul><ul><li>Lower life cycle costs </li></ul><ul><li>Lower total cost of ownership </li></ul>Chessy, Seine-et-Marne France September 2007
    8. 8. B.W.Stuck Background <ul><li>Managing Director, Signal Lake, early stage venture capital fund (Westport CT, Boston MA), 1998- </li></ul><ul><li>450+ consulting engagements, $60B+ in capital placements, 1984-1998 </li></ul><ul><li>Bell Laboratories, 1972-1984 </li></ul><ul><li>SBEE, SMEE 1969, ScD 1972, Massachusetts Institute of Technology </li></ul><ul><li>http://signallake.com/ for contact information </li></ul>

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