AAII Bearish Index as of 9/9/2009 and JSCO Pain Index as of 9/11/2009
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AAII Bearish Index as of 9/9/2009 and JSCO Pain Index as of 9/11/2009

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AAII Bearish Index as of 9/9/2009 and JSCO Pain Index as of 9/11/2009 AAII Bearish Index as of 9/9/2009 and JSCO Pain Index as of 9/11/2009 Presentation Transcript

  • AAII Bearish Sentiment Bearish Sentiment + 2 StdDev Current Bearish level Normal Bearish JSCO Pain Index (S&P weekly data) JSCO Pain Index 8 wk Avg S&P 6 months forward performance 80.0% 50.0% Maximum bearish In 2002, 2004, and 2005, bearish sentiment Bearish Sentiment and JSCO Pain Index sentiment in 21 years 40.0% 70.0% was nearly as high as it was in March 2009; 6 months later (as indicated by the 30.0% S&P 6 mo. fws performance 60.0% black dots), share prices rose higher. 20.0% 50.0% 10.0% 40.0% 0.0% -10.0% 30.0% -20.0% 20.0% -30.0% 10.0% -40.0% 0.0% -50.0% Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08
  • 2.0 16000 1.8 14000 1.6 12000 1.4 JSCO Pain Index 10000 1.2 DJIA 1.0 8000 0.8 6000 0.6 4000 0.4 2000 0.2 0.0 0 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 JSCO Pain Index µ DJIA
  • JSCO Pain Index 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 JSCO Pain Index Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 µ Jun-08 Jul-08 DJIA Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 DJIA View slide