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Bridging the gap 070410 berlin
Bridging the gap 070410 berlin
Bridging the gap 070410 berlin
Bridging the gap 070410 berlin
Bridging the gap 070410 berlin
Bridging the gap 070410 berlin
Bridging the gap 070410 berlin
Bridging the gap 070410 berlin
Bridging the gap 070410 berlin
Bridging the gap 070410 berlin
Bridging the gap 070410 berlin
Bridging the gap 070410 berlin
Bridging the gap 070410 berlin
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Bridging the gap 070410 berlin

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  • 1. Bridging the Gap Burma/Myanmar Six Months Later Marina Kramer Berlin, 07 April 2010
  • 2. “ Seven-Step Roadmap to Democracy” (2003) <ul><li>STEP 5 “ Holding of free and fair elections for Pyithu Hluttaws (legislative bodies) according to the new constitution.” </li></ul><ul><li>Announced for 2010 </li></ul>
  • 3. Electoral Laws (08.03.2010) <ul><li>1. Union Election Commission Law (SPDC Law No. 1/2010) </li></ul><ul><li>2. Political Parties Registration Law (SPDC Law No. 2/2010) </li></ul><ul><li>3. Pyithu Hluttaw (lower house) Election Law (SPDC Law No. 3/2010) </li></ul><ul><li>4. Amyotha Hluttaw (upper house) Election Law (SPDC Law No. 4/2010) </li></ul><ul><li>5. Region Hluttaw or State Hluttaw Election Law (SPDC Law No. 5/2010) </li></ul><ul><li>6. Bylaws under laws no. 2 – 5 </li></ul>
  • 4. Elections <ul><li>1990 Electoral Law repealed </li></ul><ul><li>Electoral legislation- „ fair “, but not free elections? (e.g. Press Scrutiny Board) </li></ul><ul><li>The most important political shift in a generation-> generational cleavage </li></ul><ul><li>Many political groups contemplating registration (e.g. 1990: 235 in 1990-> 130 participated-> 27 won seats) </li></ul><ul><li>Citizenship requirements more inclusive (e.g. Rohingya-temporary registration certificates) </li></ul><ul><li>Restriction in the PPR: in the 1990 Electoral Law no restrictions on prisoners being members of political parties </li></ul>
  • 5. The Military Government <ul><li>New Business Ventures (e.g. Myanmar Economic Holdings Company) </li></ul><ul><li>USDA (24 million members)-> regrouping as a political party? </li></ul><ul><li>PM Gen Thein Sein may leave his current post to head the new political wing of USDA </li></ul><ul><li>Retired officers and loyalists to take part in the „civilian government“? </li></ul>
  • 6. Ethnic States <ul><li>Constitution: gives them more political legitimacy, but no autonomy </li></ul><ul><li>Integration into the „Border Guard Forces“ (extended deadline 28 February 2010) </li></ul><ul><li>-> United Wa State Army- United Wa State Party </li></ul><ul><li>-> Kokang‘s Myanmar National Alliance (declared unlawful) </li></ul><ul><li>-> Kachin Independence Army, Shan State Army-N, UWSA etc.- deadline 22, 28 April </li></ul><ul><li>PPR (Section 12(a)(iii)): forbids „direct or indirect contacts with armed insurgent groups, terrorists or unlawful associations“ </li></ul><ul><li>e.g. Kachin State Progressive Party-> KIO </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on States/Regions- > Marginalisation of the „national races“ on the national level? </li></ul>
  • 7. Political Parties/ Opposition <ul><li>Deadline for registration (existing parties): 07 May 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>NLD </li></ul><ul><li>Reopens offices </li></ul><ul><li>Reiterates the position voiced in the „ Schwegondaing Declaration“ </li></ul><ul><li>ASSK </li></ul><ul><li>NLD challenges Electoral Law (Supreme Court) </li></ul><ul><li>Conflict-prone cleavage between the Government and democratic opposition </li></ul>
  • 8. National Parties (until 07.04.2010) <ul><li>Union of Myanmar Federation of National Politics (registered) </li></ul><ul><li>88 Generation Student Youths (Union of Myanmar) (registered)* </li></ul><ul><li>National Unity Party </li></ul><ul><li>National Political Alliance </li></ul><ul><li>Union Democratic Alliance </li></ul><ul><li>Democratic Party* </li></ul><ul><li>Union Solidarity and Development Association (expected to form more than one party)* e.g. USDA Party, Guidance Democracy Party? </li></ul><ul><li>United Democratic Party* </li></ul><ul><li>Peace and Diversity Party </li></ul><ul><li>A party formed by Phyo Min Thein (the name of the party hasn't been announced yet) </li></ul><ul><li>A party formed by self-described “Myanmar Bengalis” (the name of the party hasn't been announced) </li></ul><ul><li>New Age People‘s Party </li></ul>
  • 9. Regional Parties (until 07.04.2010) <ul><li>Kachin State Progressive Party* </li></ul><ul><li>The Union of Myanmar National Force Arakan State  </li></ul><ul><li>Mon National Democratic Front (not contesting) </li></ul><ul><li>Karen People's Party </li></ul><ul><li>Nationalist NLD* </li></ul><ul><li>Scientific National Politics Party, based in Maymyo (Pyin Oo Lwin) </li></ul><ul><li>Shwe Ohn‘s Party (Union Democracy Party?)* </li></ul><ul><li>Union of Myanmar National Political Forces (Rakhine State)* (gvt line) </li></ul>
  • 10. Contested in the 1990 elections, not registered yet: <ul><li>National League for Democracy (will not contest) </li></ul><ul><li>National Unity Party (applied for registration)* (BSPP) </li></ul><ul><li>Shan National League for Democracy </li></ul><ul><li>Union Pa-o National  Organization </li></ul><ul><li>Shan State Kokang Democratic Party </li></ul><ul><li>Mro or Khami National Solidarity Organization </li></ul><ul><li>Lahu National Development Party </li></ul><ul><li>Union Karen League </li></ul><ul><li>Kokang Democracy and Unity Party </li></ul><ul><li>Wa National Development Party </li></ul><ul><li>Arakan League for Democracy (will not contest)* </li></ul>
  • 11. Opposition in Exile <ul><li>The majority is against the elections </li></ul><ul><li>National Council of the Union of Burma ( NCUB) : rejects the five electoral laws </li></ul><ul><li>National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB) : rejects the process </li></ul><ul><li>Ethnic Nationalities Council (ENC) : does not accept the Constitution nor the elections, but encourages ethnic parties and candidates to participate </li></ul>
  • 12. <ul><li>PCIA, p. 51 </li></ul><ul><li>„ Compromise is conflict prevention </li></ul><ul><li>Crucial to conflict prevention will be how much compromise can be found between Government and opposition plans and how much the Government Roadmap turns out to be a genuine vehicle for democratisation. The three crucial issues are: </li></ul><ul><li>1. How willing are different opposition groups to accommodate the different steps? </li></ul><ul><li>2. How willing will the Government be to consult the opposition groups and accommodate their wishes to modify these steps or take on board their views during implementation? </li></ul><ul><li>3. To what extent does the Government see the Seven Steps as a genuine transition exercise, as opposed to a way of justifying continued military rule?“ </li></ul><ul><li>Any prospect of the regime recognising „in some way“ the results of the 1990 elections does not seem realistic </li></ul><ul><li>Any hope of engaging the opposition („tripartite dialogue“) seems unrealistic </li></ul>
  • 13. <ul><li>Thank you! </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul>

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