Transportation Today & Tommorow
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Transportation Today & Tommorow

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Glen Hiemstra keynote for the 2010 NW Transportation Conference: Transportation Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow. Delivered Feb. 9, 2010, Corvallis, Oregon.

Glen Hiemstra keynote for the 2010 NW Transportation Conference: Transportation Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow. Delivered Feb. 9, 2010, Corvallis, Oregon.

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Transportation Today & Tommorow Transportation Today & Tommorow Presentation Transcript

  • Reflections on Transportation Futures Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow ©
  • ©
  • The Present - How we got here Society A Society B  Everyone lives in 4,000-  Everyone lives in 2,000- square-foot houses and square-foot houses and has has no free time for 45 minutes available for exercise each day. exercise each day.  Everyone lives in 4,000-  Everyone lives in 2,000- square-foot houses and square-foot houses and has has time to get together time to get together with with friends one evening friends four evenings each each month. month.  Everyone lives in 4,000-  Everyone lives in 2,000- square-foot houses and square-foot houses and has has one week of vacation four weeks of vacation each each year. year. Adapted from Robert H. Frank, Falling Behind © View slide
  • 1950 Average New Home 980 square feet for 3.4 people (6) © View slide
  • NOW: 5,000-8,000 Sq. Ft. Homes For 2.6 people ©
  • 1973 Honda Civic 1,500 pounds ©
  • 2010 Honda Civic 2,895 pounds ©
  • ©
  • What Is Your Image Of The Future? ©
  • 'The Next American Economy' Conference, Palo Alto, California, Feb. 3, 2010 The shape of the next American economy must be export-oriented, low carbon, and innovation fueled. This is a vision where we export more and waste less, innovate in what matters, produce and deploy more of what we invent. This is the kind of productive and sustainable economy which must emerge from the rubble of this recession. Bruce Katz, Vice President and Director, Metropolitan Policy Program, Brookings Institute ©
  • Toward 2025  We will transform the transportation system in next 15 years, and we must, to keep us competitive and to respond to reality.  Will require a whole-systems view of community forms, energy, communications, transportation.  Will require Technology + Reconsidered Personal and Community Values  Optimism: We’ll succeed if we choose the right problems and apply the right solutions. ©
  • The Future  Trend 1: Economic volatility  Trend 2: Environmental issues stay in foreground  Trend 3: End of cheaper and cheaper energy  Trend 4: Shifting demographics  Challenge 1: Energy Transition  Challenge 2: Transportation for living, not living for transportation  Challenge 3: Make Philly legal  Challenge 4: Breakthrough Thinking ©
  • Not enough people make enough money to buy what we pretended they could http://ab.typepad.com/.a/6a00e5523754908833010536c48f53970c-800wi ©
  • Arbor Day Planting Map ©
  • ©
  • When is Peak Oil? Image
credit
SuperAlloys.com ©
  • 2009 IEA World Energy Outlook 50 mbd additional output needed by 2030 ©
  • China’ Tsunami of New Cars: Increased China consumption won’t stop soon. ©
  • 27 Florida’s by 2025 States where at least 20% of The population will be elderly ©
  • Generations 2025 5 -45 2 w 1 -79 … no 6 s ow n ial n len s… il er M om Bo ls… o na diti Tra 80+ Post now Generation X Millennial … …now 45-60 now 5-25 ©
  • Challenge 1: Energy Transition Tesla 100% Electric 0-60 in 4 seconds 135 mpg equivalent 250 miles per charge 1 cent/mile AltairNano ©
  • GAO February 2007  Most studies estimate that oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040.  In the United States, alternative fuels and transportation technologies face challenges that could impede their ability to mitigate the consequences of a peak and decline in oil production, unless sufficient time and effort are brought to bear.  However, there is no coordinated federal strategy for reducing uncertainty about the peak’s timing or mitigating its consequences. ©
  • Is the answer More of the Same? ©
  • Re-invent Energy by 2050  Increase efficiency of new appliances and buildings to achieve Zero-carbon emissions, resulting in 25% total reduction by 2050.  Add 3 million 1-megawatt windmills globally, 75 times  Shift 2 billion cars from current capacity. 30 mpg to 60 mpg by 2050.  Add 3000 gigawatts of peak solar photovoltaic,  Decrease driving for 2 1000 times current billion cars in half capacity.  No net new net coal power  Develop Zero-emission vehicles plants ©
  • William Calvin, Global Fever ©
  • 17% Increase = All Electric Fleet William Calvin, Global Fever ©
  • Konarka Technologies, Technology Review July/August 2004 © NanoSolar.com
  • Challenge 3: Transportation for Living ©
  • Mobile Web = Game Changer Car Sharing + Mobile Web ©
  • Critical to Increase Transit & Inter-City Rail But 80% in U.S. Live in Thin Cities & Struggle to Access Transit - A major disconnect to creating a balanced U.S. mobility system ©
  • Missing Ingredient: The Networked Personal Vehicle Right Sized and Right Priced Personal Mobility to Access Transit Based on Dan Sturgis, Intrago ©
  • Challenge 3: Make Philly Legal http://www.rosschapin.com/ ©
  • Case Study: Mountlake Terrace • Suburb of Seattle • Mostly 50s & 60s development • Typical “1st ring” demographics Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace ©
  • Changing Environment • Demographics • Busy lifestyles • More interest in walking, bicycling, transit • Support for Town Center • Awareness of climate change & sustainability Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace ©
  • Mountlake Terrace Development Code 4 Years Ago Single-Household Zone Code Requirements: • Min. 7200 or 8400 sf lots * • Min. 20’ front, rear setbacks * • Min. 12’ combined side setbacks * • Max. 35% lot coverage • 2 parking spaces per unit • ADUs strongly restricted • No design standards * Except for PUDs Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace ©
  • Mountlake Terrace Development Code Now Single-Household Zone Code Requirements: • Min. 7200 or 8400 sf lots—with exceptions • Min. 15’ front, rear setbacks • Min. 5’ side setbacks • Max. 40% lot coverage • Cottage housing OK • ADUs OK • 2 parking spaces per unit (with exceptions for cottage housing) • Design standards required Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace ©
  • Mountlake Terrace Development Code 4 Years Ago Multi-Household Zone Code Requirements: • Max. 8 or 16 du/acre • 35’ height limit • Max. 25% lot coverage • 2 parking spaces per unit • Mixed use not allowed in most areas • No design standards Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace ©
  • Mountlake Terrace Development Code Now Multi-family Household Zone Code Requirements: • No max. density • Max. 50’ height limit in some areas • Max. 45-65% lot coverage • Min. 1 -2 parking spaces per unit • Bicycle storage space required • Mixed uses OK • Design standards required Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace ©
  • Other Code Changes in Mountlake Terrace • Standards for most commercial districts overhauled: – Mixed use (res/commercial) OK – Design standards required – More pedestrian features required • More opportunities for townhomes • Parking standards revised • Permit process made more efficient Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace ©
  • Challenge 4: Breakthrough Thinking Masdar, Abu Dabai: 50,000, Solar, Desalination, Elevated light rail, Mollor Sky Cars, Pedestrian ©
  • Mental Models for Futuring  Stop the future  Adjust and adapt  Predict and prepare  Create and lead ©
  • The future is something we do. The future is not something that just Glen Hiemstra happens to us. Futurist.com ©