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Predictor Model July29915pm

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Predictive modeling of terrorism planned research

Predictive modeling of terrorism planned research

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  • 1. The Social Psychological Predictors of Terrorism Amy Sauers, Ph.D.
  • 2. United Nations Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy: “To pursue ..social inclusion agendas at every level… Reduce marginalization and the subsequent sense of victimization that propels extremism and the recruitment of terrorists.” ( UN Action to Counter Terrorism. Retrieved July 28, 2009 from http://www.un.org/terrorism/UNICRI-Counter-Terrorism.shtml.)
  • 3. Overview
    • Predictors of Terrorism
    • Why Social Psychology?
      • Big Predictor
      • Interventions are Possible
    • Social Psychology Solutions
    • Implications
    • Next Actions
    • Contact Information
  • 4. Predictors of Terrorism
    • Economic Support
    • Geographical Hot Spot
    • Resistance to Modern Society
    • Lack of Access to Political System
    • Young Males
    • Fundamentalism
    • Low Upward Mobility/Entitlement
    • Media Saturation
    • Social Psychological Motivations
      • Tight social bonds with friends inspired joining
      • [Sageman, M. (2004). Understanding Terror Networks . University of Pennsylvania Press: PA.]
  • 5. Why Social Psychology?
    • Social Psychological Predictors
      • Self-perception as marginalized (entitlement)
      • “Rebels” without a cause create one
      • Glorification of sacrifice for the cause
      • Traumatized youth/males
      • Charismatic leader network
      • Lack of clear career path/skills
      • Lack of problem-solving skills
      • [Rice, S. (2009). Emotions and terrorism research: A case for a social-psychological agenda. Journal of Criminal Justice, 37 (3), 248-255.]  
  • 6. Social Psychology Solutions
    • What Can Be Done?
    • First Lines of Prevention:
      • Schools: Identifying and separating ring-leader from pack; inclusion
      • After school: Rebel with a cause programs
        • Mutually-beneficial goals for community
        • Entrepreneurship
        • What works: “Adolescents … participate in concrete, purposeful and common-interest activities”
        • [Williams, R. (2006). Psycho-social consequences of children exposed to terrorism. Current Opinion Psychiatry, 19(4): 337-349, Retrieved July 28, 2009 from http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/533619_6 .]
  • 7. Social Psychology Solutions
    • What Can Be Done?
    • First Lines of Prevention:
      • Policing
        • Identifying and separating leaders from network
        • Freezing economic support
        • Communication undermines the legitimacy of leader
        • Community police partners
        • Refer to programs; mutual common goals for community
        • [Gerwehr, S., & Daly, S. (2006). Al-Qaida: Terrorist selection and recruitment. The RAND Corporation . Retrieved July 28, 2008 from http://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/2006/RAND_RP1214.pdf .]
  • 8. Implications
    • Policing, criminologist, and community programs
      • Mitigate the root causes of terrorism
      • Lessen the need to deploy military ops
        • Military strikes upon communities may seed more terrorism in the long-term
        • Policing is seen as a legitimate defense of community safety
          • Winning hearts and minds to create a more safe society
          • (LaFree, G. (2007). Why Criminologists Must Be Involved in the Fight Against Terrorism. University of Maryland.)
  • 9. Next Actions
    • Future Research Topics/Modeling
      • Predict and Intervene Threats
      • Effective Policing Interventions of Network Leaders
      • Communication Campaigns Undermine Recruitment
      • Community Programs Decrease Terrorist Acts
      • Comparison of Strikes’ Effects and Community-Building Effects
  • 10. Contact Information
    • Amy Sauers, Ph.D.
    • Social Scientist, Predictive Modeling and Interventions Research
      • [email_address]