The Social Psychological Predictors of Terrorism Amy Sauers, Ph.D.
United Nations Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy: “To pursue ..social inclusion agendas at every level…   Reduce marginali...
Overview <ul><li>Predictors of Terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>Why Social Psychology? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Big Predictor </li...
Predictors of Terrorism <ul><li>Economic Support </li></ul><ul><li>Geographical Hot Spot </li></ul><ul><li>Resistance to M...
Why Social Psychology? <ul><li>Social Psychological Predictors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Self-perception as marginalized (enti...
Social Psychology Solutions <ul><li>What Can Be Done? </li></ul><ul><li>First Lines of Prevention: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>S...
Social Psychology Solutions <ul><li>What Can Be Done? </li></ul><ul><li>First Lines of Prevention: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>P...
Implications <ul><li>Policing, criminologist, and community programs  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mitigate the root causes of te...
Next Actions <ul><li>Future Research Topics/Modeling </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Predict and Intervene Threats </li></ul></ul><u...
Contact Information <ul><li>Amy Sauers, Ph.D.  </li></ul><ul><li>Social Scientist, Predictive Modeling and Interventions R...
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Predictor Model July29915pm

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Predictor Model July29915pm

  1. 1. The Social Psychological Predictors of Terrorism Amy Sauers, Ph.D.
  2. 2. United Nations Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy: “To pursue ..social inclusion agendas at every level… Reduce marginalization and the subsequent sense of victimization that propels extremism and the recruitment of terrorists.” ( UN Action to Counter Terrorism. Retrieved July 28, 2009 from http://www.un.org/terrorism/UNICRI-Counter-Terrorism.shtml.)
  3. 3. Overview <ul><li>Predictors of Terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>Why Social Psychology? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Big Predictor </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interventions are Possible </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Social Psychology Solutions </li></ul><ul><li>Implications </li></ul><ul><li>Next Actions </li></ul><ul><li>Contact Information </li></ul>
  4. 4. Predictors of Terrorism <ul><li>Economic Support </li></ul><ul><li>Geographical Hot Spot </li></ul><ul><li>Resistance to Modern Society </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of Access to Political System </li></ul><ul><li>Young Males </li></ul><ul><li>Fundamentalism </li></ul><ul><li>Low Upward Mobility/Entitlement </li></ul><ul><li>Media Saturation </li></ul><ul><li>Social Psychological Motivations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tight social bonds with friends inspired joining </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>[Sageman, M. (2004). Understanding Terror Networks . University of Pennsylvania Press: PA.] </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Why Social Psychology? <ul><li>Social Psychological Predictors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Self-perception as marginalized (entitlement) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“Rebels” without a cause create one </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Glorification of sacrifice for the cause </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Traumatized youth/males </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Charismatic leader network </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lack of clear career path/skills </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lack of problem-solving skills </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>[Rice, S. (2009). Emotions and terrorism research: A case for a social-psychological agenda. Journal of Criminal Justice, 37 (3), 248-255.]   </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Social Psychology Solutions <ul><li>What Can Be Done? </li></ul><ul><li>First Lines of Prevention: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Schools: Identifying and separating ring-leader from pack; inclusion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>After school: Rebel with a cause programs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Mutually-beneficial goals for community </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Entrepreneurship </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>What works: “Adolescents … participate in concrete, purposeful and common-interest activities” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>[Williams, R. (2006). Psycho-social consequences of children exposed to terrorism. Current Opinion Psychiatry, 19(4): 337-349, Retrieved July 28, 2009 from http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/533619_6 .] </li></ul></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Social Psychology Solutions <ul><li>What Can Be Done? </li></ul><ul><li>First Lines of Prevention: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Policing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Identifying and separating leaders from network </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Freezing economic support </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Communication undermines the legitimacy of leader </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Community police partners </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Refer to programs; mutual common goals for community </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>[Gerwehr, S., & Daly, S. (2006). Al-Qaida: Terrorist selection and recruitment. The RAND Corporation . Retrieved July 28, 2008 from http://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/2006/RAND_RP1214.pdf .] </li></ul></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Implications <ul><li>Policing, criminologist, and community programs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mitigate the root causes of terrorism </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lessen the need to deploy military ops </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Military strikes upon communities may seed more terrorism in the long-term </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Policing is seen as a legitimate defense of community safety </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Winning hearts and minds to create a more safe society </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>(LaFree, G. (2007). Why Criminologists Must Be Involved in the Fight Against Terrorism. University of Maryland.) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Next Actions <ul><li>Future Research Topics/Modeling </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Predict and Intervene Threats </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Effective Policing Interventions of Network Leaders </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Communication Campaigns Undermine Recruitment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Community Programs Decrease Terrorist Acts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Comparison of Strikes’ Effects and Community-Building Effects </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. Contact Information <ul><li>Amy Sauers, Ph.D. </li></ul><ul><li>Social Scientist, Predictive Modeling and Interventions Research </li></ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul>
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