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euroFOT: large scale field operational tests - Impact Assessment


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  • 1. euroFOT: Large Scale Field Operational Tests – Impact Assessment ITS World Congress Ahmed Benmimoun Institut für Kraftfahrzeuge, RWTH Aachen University Martijn van de Noort TNO - Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research Stockholm, September 2009
  • 2. Contents • Motivation and Objectives • Approach Safety Impacts Traffic Efficiency Impacts Environmental Impacts • Summary and Outlook September 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC
  • 3. Objectives of Data Analysis (1/2) To quantify the impacts on EU level of the functions tested in the FOT on traffic efficiency, safety and the environment Taking into account various penetration rates Providing input for the socio-economic cost-benefit analysis (CBA) September 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC
  • 4. Objectives of Data Analysis (2/2) The following impacts will be quantified for use in the CBA: Traffic safety: changes in the number of accidents with fatalities, injuries (severe, slight) or material damage only Traffic efficiency: direct effects: travel time changes, but also homogenisation/reduction of congestion effects for environmental impact assessment indirect effects: changes in the amount of accident related congestion (based on changes in number of accidents) Environment: changes in fuel consumption and emissions of CO2 due to direct traffic efficiency effects due to changes in accident related congestion September 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC
  • 5. Data Analysis Approach ... Questionnaires VMC-Fleet CO-, CV-, CV+E-data Data quality  Data quality  analysis analysis SQL Database Cost Benefit Analysis Data processing Data processing Quality Quality specific  hypotheses specific  hypotheses assessment assessment Testing of VMC  Testing of VMC  PI‐calculation PI‐calculation Global  Global  Data quality Data quality assessment assessment analysis analysis Data mining Data mining Testing of common Testing of common hypotheses hypotheses VMC-Specific Common Data Analysis September 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC
  • 6. General Approach for the Impact Assessment The two following methods are planned for the impact assessment, which needs to provide input for the CBA: •Direct route: Impact assessment directly from the FOT-data (scaling up via situational variables) Direct impacts are more reliable because data from the FOT is used without assumptions •Modelling route: Impact assessment using models to assess effects for higher penetration rates (also includes scaling up via situational variables) Especially for functions that influence behaviour of other vehicles (e.g. ACC) the direct route is not sufficient Use of FOT data as input for models (e.g. changes in driving behaviour) Interaction with other (equipped and non-equipped) vehicles can be modelled Higher penetration rates than found on the road in the FOT can be modelled Possibility to analyse network effects September 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC
  • 7. Tools for Modelling Activties PELOPS September 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC
  • 8. Safety Impacts September 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC
  • 9. Efficiency Impacts September 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC
  • 10. Environmental Impacts September 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC
  • 11. Summary and Outlook Current status: • Basic methodology defined so far and described in a Data Analysis Plan for each Vehicle Management Centre in euroFOT Next steps • Refinement of methodology and approach for impact assessment Translation of surrogate measures (changes in driver and driving behaviour) into changes in accident risk Translation of decrease of incidents into decrease of accidents ... • Test and evaluation of the methodology with data from FOT Pilot • Finalisation of methodology for impact assessment • Conduction of impact assessment for the considered functions • Conduction of a socio-economic cost-benefit analysis • Final results are to be expected for summer 2011 September 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC