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Global Economic Rundown
Global Economic Rundown
Global Economic Rundown
Global Economic Rundown
Global Economic Rundown
Global Economic Rundown
Global Economic Rundown
Global Economic Rundown
Global Economic Rundown
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Global Economic Rundown


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  • 1. Global Economic rundown How We can improve global efficiency
    • Current & Projected GDP Growth & Unemployment
    • How are different Economies responding?
    • Measuring response effectiveness
    • How to improve Global economic efficiency?
  • 2. GDP Growth & Unemployment Global GDP % Change Global Unemployment % rate Source: NBER
  • 3. US v Europe
    • For maximum productive efficiency US is extremely quick to ‘layoff’ employees
    • There are relatively few employee protection laws in the US v Europe
    • When the US turns around in 2010, it will have to hire quickly to respond
    • Europe is typically very slow to layoff employees – ‘Socialist’ employment laws
    • There is a looming Europe-wide gap between too low GDP to justify such high employment
  • 4. US unemployment is growing exponentially whilst GDP decline is projected to be in recovery shortly Shortfall between unemployment & GDP growth post recession Pre recessionary GDP Growth/Unemployment gap
  • 5. German unemployment rate stable whilst GDP slumps Shortfall between GDP decline - Unemployment rate unchanged
  • 6. Differing response to the same problem?
    • US Companies geared exclusively toward ‘shareholder value’ & short term quarterly targets
    • European companies’ articles state a range of responsibilities including – employees, consumers, community & environment
    • Perhaps some US firms are using the downturn as an ‘excuse’ to layoff ‘unproductive’ employees?
    • Explains strong recent quarterly results for US companies
    • ‘ Unproductive’10% is gone, leaving US firms leaner & more efficient?
  • 7. How could we improve Global Economic efficiency?
    • Become more vigorous in making tough decisions to respond to the economy
    • Don’t be ‘afraid’ to spend money or make quick decisions
    • - More is lost due to indecision than wrong decision!
    • Become more flexible – adapt rather than ‘hanging on’ to out-dated models & personnel – Both management & regular employees
    • US has a strong entrepreneurial culture unlike much of Europe - Do not be afraid of failure!
    • ‘ Success is going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm’ Winston Churchill
  • 8. US Unemployment rates – Democrats v Republicans Unsurprisingly Democrats have a better record on US unemployment rates Democrat Republican Overall rate increased though ‘Professional’ Unemployment fell Unemployment down from 7.5 – 4%
  • 9.
    • Assumptions are based on the projections for Global economies to 2010
    • - NBER
    • - The Economist
    • Markets are unpredictable…..
    • And so are people!