Analysis Frameworks for Sustainability: Linking Energy and the Environment Rudolf B. Husar Director, Center for Air Pollution and Trends Analysis (CAPITA) Professor, Department of Energy, Environmental & Chemical Engineering Friday, November 2, 2007, 11:00am, Lopata 101, Washington University

Rudolf B. Husar

Director, Center for Air Pollution and Trends Analysis (CAPITA) Professor, Department of Energy, Environmental & Chemical Engineering

Friday, November 2, 2007, 11:00am,

Lopata 101, Washington University

Sustainable Development (SD) A process of reconciling society’s developmental needs with the environmental limits over the long term. But, What should be developed , what should be sustained? SD as an uncertain and adaptive process, “in which society's discovery of where it wants to go is intertwined with how it might try to get there”. During the SD ‘ journey ’ toward sustainability, the pathways have to be ‘ navigated ’ adaptively . National Academy, 1999

A process of reconciling society’s developmental needs with the environmental limits over the long term. But, What should be developed , what should be sustained?

SD as an uncertain and adaptive process, “in which society's discovery of where it wants to go is intertwined with how it might try to get there”.

During the SD ‘ journey ’ toward sustainability, the pathways have to be ‘ navigated ’ adaptively

.

Life and non-life on Earth form a combined system (Gaia Theory) Carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, calcium are in constant circulation between the earth’s major environmental compartments Earth’s compartments remain in balance as long as the rate of flow of matter and energy in and out of the compartments is unchanged. Changes in the environmental compartments will occur if the circulation (in and out flow) of the substances is perturbed. Atmospheric CO 2 has been increasing because the rate of input is larger than the rate of output from the atmosphere.

Major Biogeochemical Processes Visualized by Aerosols Dust storms Volcanoes Anthropogenic pollution Fires

Analysis Frameworks Sensory-Motor Feedback Loop (System Science) Biogeochemical Cycling Loop (Materials Balance) Causality Loop (Combined Social-Physical)

Sensory-Motor Feedback Loop (System Science)

Biogeochemical Cycling Loop (Materials Balance)

Causality Loop (Combined Social-Physical)

Analysis Framework I: Sensory-Motor Loop Assessment Compare to Goals, Plan Reductions Track Progress Controls (Actions) Monitoring (Sensing) Set Goals Assessment turns data into knowledge for decision making & actions through analysis (science & eng.) Monitoring collects multi-sensory data from surface and satellite platforms and Human activities exert pressures , e.g burning fossil fuels, that alter the state of environment. The impaired environmental state, elicits responses , such as regulations in a feedback loop All living organisms use this type of sensory-motor feedback to maintain their existence. Monitoring, Assessment, Control are the necessary steps for sustainable development.

Monitoring: New Global Measurements - Satellites ERBS Terra Aqua Grace IceSat QuikScat Sage SeaWinds TRMM Toms-EP UARS Jason Landsat 7 SORCE SeaWiFS ACRIMSAT TOPEX/Poseidon EO-1

A-Train Satellite Constellation

Trends of tropospheric NO 2 Eskes at al Source Identification of NO 2

NO 2 Weekly Cycle

Setting Goals: Air Quality Goal: Attaining Natural Condition by 2064

Controls: Sustainability Transition

Analysis Framework II: Materials & Energy Flow Loop

Analysis Framework II:

Materials & Energy Flow Loop

Biogeochemical Cycles - Carbon

Nitrogen Cycle

Consequences of Ecosystem Changes

How and what to Control?? Analysis Framework III – Causality Loop Economic Development with Due Care of the Environment The system approach links human activities and their consequences in closed loop It is the minimum set of linked components – if any missing, the system is crippled Each component depends on its causal upstream driver – and external environment The causal loop can be used as an organizing principle for sustainability analysis

The system approach links human activities and their consequences in closed loop

It is the minimum set of linked components – if any missing, the system is crippled

Each component depends on its causal upstream driver – and external environment

The causal loop can be used as an organizing principle for sustainability analysis

Analysis Framework III – Causality Loop Economic Development with Due Care of the Environment Health-Welfare Energy-Environment Socio-Economic

Causality: Linear System Model

Trend of Indicators SOx = Pop x GDP/P x Btu/GDP x Sox/Btu 1960s 1980s 1990s

SOx = Pop x GDP/P x Btu/GDP x Sox/Btu

Population - Energy/Goods Consumption– Materials Flow - Emissions E k =  c jk EM j =   b ij c jk GE i =    a i b ij c jk P Industr. Energy Transp. Energy ResCom.Engy Coal Oil Gas Electric Energy SOx NOx HC PM Goods &Energy,(GE) i Fuels&Mater.(FM), j Emission (EM), k Ind. Chemicals Industr. Goods Pop., P Metals Mercury a i Consump./Person b ij Fuels/Energy c jk Emission/Fuel- j j i i i j Consumption of Goods and Energy: GE =  a i P Fuels and Materials Flow: FM =   a i b ij P Emission of Pollutants: EM =    a i b ij c jk P Industrial Prod. Transportation ResComercial EconMeasure(EM)

E k =  c jk EM j =   b ij c jk GE i =    a i b ij c jk P

Coal Production and S Content

Coal Sulfur Flow in 1980 and 1998 In 1980, a major flow of sulfur in coal originated in Illinois and was transported to Florida Arrows indicate the flow of coal from the mines to the consumer By 1990, the transport of high sulfur coal from the Midwest has bee replaced by low sulfur western coal

In 1980, a major flow of sulfur in coal originated in Illinois and was transported to Florida

By 1990, the transport of high sulfur coal from the Midwest has bee replaced by low sulfur western coal

Pollutant Transfer by Fuels and Minerals: Spatial Transfer Matrices

Carbon Emission Drivers for Transportation Env 449 - 2007

Carbon Emission Drivers for Housing

Close-Loop Frameworks Three Frameworks: Sensory-Motor Feedback Loop (System Science) Biogeochemical Cycling Loop (Materials Balance) Causality Loop (Social-Material Science) Main Challenges: - Balancing Loops - Network Effects in Causality - Integrating Socio-economic, Physico-chemical, Health-Welfare

Three Frameworks:

Sensory-Motor Feedback Loop (System Science)

Biogeochemical Cycling Loop (Materials Balance)

Causality Loop (Social-Material Science)

Main Challenges:

- Balancing Loops

- Network Effects in Causality

- Integrating Socio-economic, Physico-chemical, Health-Welfare