Seeing  US education through the prism of international comparisons Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Developmen...
Agenda <ul><li>1 . Why we need to care </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A world of change in the demand for skills and the global tal...
„ The world is flat“ (Thomas Friedman)   How education became a key driver for the success of individuals and nations
Growth in baseline qualifications A world of change Approximated by percentage of persons with high school or equivalent q...
Consider Korea 1960s Beginning of 21 st  Century Wealth Below all South American countries. Around level of Afghanistan. 2...
High school completion rates Percentage of graduates to the population at the typical age of graduation %
College-level graduation rates Percentage of tertiary type A graduates to the population at the typical age of graduation ...
  The effects of the higher education expansion:  A high calibre workforce or the overqualified crowding out the lesser qu...
Changes in higher education and changes in unemployment for lower secondary educated adults: late 1990s and early 2000s Pe...
  Relative unemployment rate of adults with tertiary level attainment between 1995 and 2004 Lower secondary unemployment r...
Percentage of 15-year-olds expecting to complete a college degree (2003) A4.1 %
Moving targets Future supply of high school graduates
Future supply of high school graduates Future supply of college graduates
Percentage of science graduates
Getting the fundamentals right. What the top-performers achieve  in terms of quality, equity and efficiency  in schooling ...
Key features of PISA <ul><li>PISA is a three-yearly international assessment that…  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>… examines the p...
Coverage of world economy 77% 81% 83% 85% 86% 87% PISA - OECD’s global assessment of what students know and can do with th...
Deciding what to assess... looking back at what students were expected to have learned … or… looking ahead to how well the...
Average performance of 15-year-olds in mathematics – extrapolate and apply High mathematics performance Low mathematics pe...
Math performance of immigrant students OECD average = 500 Native students Second-generation students First-generation stud...
Strengths and weaknesses in math The real world The mathematical World A real situation A model of reality A mathematical ...
How the demand for skills has changed Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US) (Levy and Murnane) ...
Increased likelihood of postsec. particip. at age 19 associated with reading proficiency at age 15 (Canada) after accounti...
Average performance of 15-year-olds in mathematics Low average performance Large socio-economic disparities High average p...
Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik Low average performance Large socio-economic disparities High av...
School performance and schools’ socio-economic background - Germany Figure 4.13 School proportional to size Student perfor...
School performance and schools’ socio-economic background – United States Figure 4.13 School proportional to size Student ...
Student performance School performance and schools’ socio-economic background - Finland Advantage PISA Index of social bac...
How can we get there? Levers for policy that emerge from  OECD’s international comparisons
Money matters - but other things do too Mexico Greece Portugal Italy Spain Germany Austria Ireland United States Norway Ko...
High ambitions  and universal standards Defining what students should be able to do, not prescribing what teachers should ...
Challenge and support Weak support Strong support Low challenge High challenge Strong performance Systemic improvement Poo...
High ambitions Access to best practice and quality professional development Intelligent accountability  and intervention i...
School autonomy and central exams Pooled international data Woessmann, 2005 PISA math performance
School autonomy and external exams Pooled international data Woessmann, 2005 PISA math performance
Public and private schools Private schools perform better Public schools perform better
Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik Low average performance Large socio-economic disparities High av...
Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik Strong socio-economic impact on student performance Socially equ...
Strong ambitions Access to best practice and quality professional development Accountability Devolved responsibility, the ...
Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik Strong socio-economic impact on student performance Socially equ...
High ambitions Access to best practice and quality professional development Accountability and intervention in inverse pro...
Creating a knowledge-rich profession in which schools and teachers have the authority to act, the necessary knowledge to d...
Paradigm shifts Prescription Informed profession Uniformity Embracing diversity Demarcation Collaboration Provision Outcom...
A second chance? Expected hours in non-formal job-related training (2003) This chart shows the expected number of hours in...
Why care? <ul><li>Progress </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Concerns about skill barriers to economic growth, productivity growth and...
Thank you ! <ul><ul><li>www.oecd.org;  www.pisa.oecd.org </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>All national and international pub...
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Schleicher

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    1. 1. Seeing US education through the prism of international comparisons Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Alliance for excellent education, Washington, 4 October 2007 Prof. Andreas Schleicher Head, Indicators and Analysis Division OECD Directorate for Education
    2. 2. Agenda <ul><li>1 . Why we need to care </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A world of change in the demand for skills and the global talent pool </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2. Where we are – and where we can be </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Quality, equity and efficiency in education in the best performing countries </li></ul></ul><ul><li>3. How we can get there </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Some policy levers that emerge from international comparisons </li></ul></ul>
    3. 3. „ The world is flat“ (Thomas Friedman) How education became a key driver for the success of individuals and nations
    4. 4. Growth in baseline qualifications A world of change Approximated by percentage of persons with high school or equivalent qualfications in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, 45-44 und 25-34 years % 1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference 2004 3. Including some ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003. 13 1 1 27
    5. 5. Consider Korea 1960s Beginning of 21 st Century Wealth Below all South American countries. Around level of Afghanistan. 20 th in OECD. Educational expenditure 1 st in OECD in % of GDP. Educational attainment completing secondary – 24 th in OECD. completing tertiary – 20 th in OECD. completing secondary – 1 st in OECD. completing tertiary – 3 rd in OECD. Educational quality 2 nd in reading, 2 nd in mathematics 4 th in science in OECD. Educational equity 2 nd in OECD.
    6. 6. High school completion rates Percentage of graduates to the population at the typical age of graduation %
    7. 7. College-level graduation rates Percentage of tertiary type A graduates to the population at the typical age of graduation % A3.1 15 2 <ul><li>Rising college-degrees have not led to an “inflation” of the labour-market value of qualifications. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In all but three of the 20 countries with available data, the earnings benefit increased between 1997 and 2003, in Germany, Italy and Hungary by between 20% and 40% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Growing benefits in many of the countries with the steepest attainment growth . </li></ul></ul>Decline of the relative position of the US from 1995 to 2005
    8. 8. The effects of the higher education expansion: A high calibre workforce or the overqualified crowding out the lesser qualified? Lower secondary unemployment rate as a ratio of upper secondary unemployment rate A1.4 In those countries that did not expand higher education (the bottom group), failure to complete high school is now associated with an 80% greater probability of being unemployed, compared to less than 50% in the top group. “ Top group” The nine countries that expanded tertiary education fastest in the 1990s (5.9% on average) “ Middle group” The eight countries with modest increases in tertiary education (2.4% on average) (UK) “ Bottom group” The nine countries with no or very modest increases in tertiary education (0.1% on average)
    9. 9. Changes in higher education and changes in unemployment for lower secondary educated adults: late 1990s and early 2000s Percentage point change within the periods Change in tertiary attainment levels between 1990-1994 and 1995-1999 A1.5 Countries in green had the fastest growth in tertiary attainment and close to zero or negative growth in unemployment. Countries in red had low or no growth in tertiary attainment but substantial growth in unemployment among the lower educated.
    10. 10. Relative unemployment rate of adults with tertiary level attainment between 1995 and 2004 Lower secondary unemployment rate as a ratio of upper secondary unemployment rate Years The extent to which a tertiary degree protects against unemployment risk has deteriorated slightly in the countries with the fastest rates for tertiary expansion, from 37% to 31%, which is less than the risk among those with only upper secondary education. However, the same rate of deterioration has also occurred among countries with the lowest expansion rates, and a faster deterioration occurred among the countries that expanded slowly in the 1990s. “ Middle group” The eight countries with modest increases in tertiary education (2.4% on average) “ Bottom group” The nine countries with no or very modest increases in tertiary education (0.1% on average) “ Top group” The nine countries that expanded tertiary education fastest in the 1990s (5.9% on average
    11. 11. Percentage of 15-year-olds expecting to complete a college degree (2003) A4.1 %
    12. 12. Moving targets Future supply of high school graduates
    13. 13. Future supply of high school graduates Future supply of college graduates
    14. 14. Percentage of science graduates
    15. 15. Getting the fundamentals right. What the top-performers achieve in terms of quality, equity and efficiency in schooling outcomes
    16. 16. Key features of PISA <ul><li>PISA is a three-yearly international assessment that… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>… examines the performance of 15-year-olds in key subject areas as well as a wider range of educational outcomes that include students attitudes to learning, their beliefs about themselves, and their learning strategies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>… collects contextual data from school principals and parents </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Volume </li></ul><ul><ul><li>3½ hours of mathematics assessment, large part open-ended (focus subject changes every three years) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1 hour for each of reading, science and problem solving </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>½ hour for questionnaire on background, learning habits, learning environment, engagement and motivation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Coverage </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Representative probability samples of between 3,500 and 50,000 15-year-old students </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Most federal countries also draw regional samples </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PISA covers roughly nine tens of the world economy </li></ul></ul>
    17. 17. Coverage of world economy 77% 81% 83% 85% 86% 87% PISA - OECD’s global assessment of what students know and can do with their knowledge
    18. 18. Deciding what to assess... looking back at what students were expected to have learned … or… looking ahead to how well they can extrapolate from what they have learned and apply their knowledge and skills in novel settings. For PISA, the OECD countries chose the latter.
    19. 19. Average performance of 15-year-olds in mathematics – extrapolate and apply High mathematics performance Low mathematics performance
    20. 20. Math performance of immigrant students OECD average = 500 Native students Second-generation students First-generation students Where immigrant students succeed – A comparative review of performance and engagement in PISA 2003: Figure 2.2a.
    21. 21. Strengths and weaknesses in math The real world The mathematical World A real situation A model of reality A mathematical model Mathematical results Real results Understanding, structuring and simplifying the situation Making the problem amenable to mathematical treatment Interpreting the mathematical results Using relevant mathematical tools to solve the problem Validating the results
    22. 22. How the demand for skills has changed Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US) (Levy and Murnane) Mean task input as percentiles of the 1960 task distribution
    23. 23. Increased likelihood of postsec. particip. at age 19 associated with reading proficiency at age 15 (Canada) after accounting for school engagement, gender, mother tongue, place of residence, parental, education and family income (reference group Level 1)
    24. 24. Average performance of 15-year-olds in mathematics Low average performance Large socio-economic disparities High average performance Large socio-economic disparities Low average performance High social equity High average performance High social equity Strong socio-economic impact on student performance Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities High mathematics performance Low mathematics performance
    25. 25. Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik Low average performance Large socio-economic disparities High average performance Large socio-economic disparities Low average performance High social equity High average performance High social equity Strong socio-economic impact on student performance Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities High mathematics performance Low mathematics performance Watch out for new data on this on December 4 !
    26. 26. School performance and schools’ socio-economic background - Germany Figure 4.13 School proportional to size Student performance and student SES within schools School performance and school SES Student performance Advantage PISA Index of social background Disadvantage
    27. 27. School performance and schools’ socio-economic background – United States Figure 4.13 School proportional to size Student performance and student SES within schools School performance and school SES OECD OECD Student performance Advantage PISA Index of social background Disadvantage
    28. 28. Student performance School performance and schools’ socio-economic background - Finland Advantage PISA Index of social background Disadvantage Figure 4.13 Student performance and student SES Student performance and student SES within schools School performance and school SES School proportional to size
    29. 29. How can we get there? Levers for policy that emerge from OECD’s international comparisons
    30. 30. Money matters - but other things do too Mexico Greece Portugal Italy Spain Germany Austria Ireland United States Norway Korea Czech republic Slovak republic Poland Hungary Finland Netherlands Canada Switzerland Iceland Denmark France Sweden Belgium Australia Japan R 2 = 0.28 Cumulative expenditure (US$) Performance in mathematics
    31. 31. High ambitions and universal standards Defining what students should be able to do, not prescribing what teachers should teach Access to best practice and quality professional development
    32. 32. Challenge and support Weak support Strong support Low challenge High challenge Strong performance Systemic improvement Poor performance Improvements idiosyncratic Conflict Demoralisation Poor performance Stagnation
    33. 33. High ambitions Access to best practice and quality professional development Intelligent accountability and intervention in inverse proportion to success Devolved responsibility, the school as the centre of action
    34. 34. School autonomy and central exams Pooled international data Woessmann, 2005 PISA math performance
    35. 35. School autonomy and external exams Pooled international data Woessmann, 2005 PISA math performance
    36. 36. Public and private schools Private schools perform better Public schools perform better
    37. 37. Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik Low average performance Large socio-economic disparities High average performance Large socio-economic disparities Low average performance High social equity High average performance High social equity Strong socio-economic impact on student performance Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities High mathematics performance Low mathematics performance
    38. 38. Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik Strong socio-economic impact on student performance Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities High mathematics performance Low mathematics performance <ul><li>School with responsibility for deciding which courses are offered </li></ul><ul><ul><li>High degree of autonomy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low degree of autonomy </li></ul></ul>
    39. 39. Strong ambitions Access to best practice and quality professional development Accountability Devolved responsibility, the school as the centre of action Integrated educational opportunities From prescribed forms of teaching and assessment towards personalised learning
    40. 40. Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik Strong socio-economic impact on student performance Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities High mathematics performance Low mathematics performance <ul><li>Early selection and institutional differentiation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>High degree of stratification </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low degree of stratification </li></ul></ul>
    41. 41. High ambitions Access to best practice and quality professional development Accountability and intervention in inverse proportion to success Personalized learning Devolved responsibility, the school as the centre of action Integrated educational opportunities
    42. 42. Creating a knowledge-rich profession in which schools and teachers have the authority to act, the necessary knowledge to do so wisely, and access to effective support systems The tradition of education systems has been “knowledge poor” (think of the assembly line in Detroit) The best performing education systems are “knowledge rich” (think of Silicon Valley) National prescription Professional judgement Informed professional judgement, the teacher as a “knowledge worker” Informed prescription Uninformed professional judgement, teachers working in isolation Uninformed prescription, teachers implement curricula
    43. 43. Paradigm shifts Prescription Informed profession Uniformity Embracing diversity Demarcation Collaboration Provision Outcomes Bureaucratic – look up Devolved – look outwards Talk equity Deliver equity Hit & miss Universal high standards Received wisdom Data and best practice The old bureaucratic education system The modern enabling education system
    44. 44. A second chance? Expected hours in non-formal job-related training (2003) This chart shows the expected number of hours in non-formal job-related education and training, over a forty year period, for 25-to-64 year olds. % C5.1a
    45. 45. Why care? <ul><li>Progress </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Concerns about skill barriers to economic growth, productivity growth and rates of technological innovation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>One additional year of education equals to between 3 and 6% of GDP </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Rising tertiary level qualifications seem generally not to have led to an “inflation” of the labour-market value of qualifications (in all but three of the 20 countries with available data, the earnings benefit increased between 1997 and 2003, in Germany, Italy and Hungary by between 20% and 40%) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Fairness </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Concerns about the role of skills in creating social inequity in economic outcomes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Both average and distribution of skill matter to long-term growth (high percentages of low skill impede growth) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Value for money </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Concerns about the demand for, and efficiency and effectiveness of, investments in public goods </li></ul></ul>
    46. 46. Thank you ! <ul><ul><li>www.oecd.org; www.pisa.oecd.org </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>All national and international publications </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The complete micro-level database </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>email: pisa@oecd.org </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>… and remember: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Without data, you are just another person with an opinion </li></ul></ul>
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