Mary Meeker Tech Trends Web 2.0 11/05/08
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Mary Meeker Tech Trends Web 2.0 11/05/08

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Mary Meeker Tech Trends Web 2.0 11/05/08

Mary Meeker Tech Trends Web 2.0 11/05/08

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Mary Meeker Tech Trends Web 2.0 11/05/08 Mary Meeker Tech Trends Web 2.0 11/05/08 Presentation Transcript

  • Technology / Internet Trends November 5, 2008 Web 2.0 Summit – San Francisco mary.meeker@ms.com / www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers of Morgan Stanley in the US can receive independent, third-party research on companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at www.morganstanley.com/equityresearch or can call 1-800-624-2063 to request a copy of this research. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
  • Outline • Economy 1. Recession – a long time coming, how long will it last? 2. Technology & Advertising Spending – closely tied to GDP growth • Technology / Internet 1. Digital Consumer – Undermonetized social networks / video / VoIP driving powerful usage growth 2. Mobile – Innovation in wireless products / services accelerating 3. Emerging Markets – Pacing next wave of technology adoption • Closing Thoughts 1. Companies with cogent business models that provide consumer value should survive / thrive – consumers need value more than they have needed it in a long time… 2
  • Economy 1) Recession – a long time coming, how long will it last? 1 year? 5 years? 3
  • Roots of Economic Challenge? 10+ Years of Rising Home Ownership + Declining Interest / Savings Rates U.S. Homeownership Rates vs. Interest Rates vs. Personal Savings Rates, 1965-2008 70% June 2004: US home ownership = 73MM 20% 68% 16% U.S. Interest Rate & Personal Savings Rate U.S. Home Ownership Rate 66% January 1993: HUD began promoting broader home ownership. US home ownership = 62MM 12% 64% 8% 62% 4% 60% 58% 0% 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 U.S. Home Ownership Rate U.S. Interest Rate U.S. Home Ownership Rate 30-year (1965-1995) Trendline U.S. Personal Savings Rate Note: HUD is Department of Housing & Urban Development. Interest rate is the overnight federal funds rate. 4 Source: Federal Reserve, DOC Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Morgan Stanley Research.
  • 10 Years of Rising Home Prices – Up ~2x U.S. Real Home Price & Building Cost Indexes, % Change 1965 - 2007 90% 80% 70% 60% % Change From 1965 Level 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 U.S. Real Home Price Index U.S. Real Building Cost Index Note: Real home prices & building costs are adjusted for inflation; Source: Robert Shiller. 5
  • USA Total Debt = Up ~2x Over 30 Years to 3x GDP Foreign Ownership Ramped to ~60% US Treasuries – Helped Pace ‘Easy Money’ + Leverage 300% 70% Foreign Ownership of U.S. Treasuries, % of Total 275% 60% 250% U.S. Total Debt, % of GDP 50% 225% Market Cap 40% 200% 30% 175% 20% 150% 125% 10% 100% 0% 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 U.S. Total Debt, % of GDP Foreign Ownership of US Treasuries, % of Total Market Capitalization Source: Bridgewater, total debt include both public and private debt, US government debt = ~65% GDP, Morgan Stanley Research. 6
  • -0.3% Q/Q US GDP Growth in CQ3 / Consumer Spending Fell 3.1% Biggest Q/Q Decline Since 1980 – October < September < August < July U.S. Real GDP vs. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Q/Q % Change, 2005-2008 6% 5% 4% 3% Q/Q Growth Rates 2% 1% 0% CQ1:05 CQ3:05 CQ1:06 CQ3:06 CQ1:07 CQ3:07 CQ1:08 CQ3:08 -1% -2% -3% U.S. Real GDP Q/Q Growth U.S. Real PCE Q/Q Growth Note, Real GDP and real PCE are inflation-adjusted, Real PCE is seasonally adjusted. CQ3:08 data is “advanced,” may differ from final reported #s. 7 Source: BEA, Morgan Stanley Research.
  • Global GDP Growth Forecasts Have Downward Bias – Decelerating / Negative Growth for 2008E + 2009E Difference from IMF Forecasts, 10/08 7/08 IMF Forecasts Country / Region 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E USA 2.8% 2.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.3% -0.7% Euro zone 2.8 2.6 1.3 0.2 -0.4 -1.0 UK 2.8 3.0 1.0 -0.1 -0.8 -1.8 China 11.6 11.9 9.7 9.3 -- -0.6 India 9.8 9.3 7.9 6.9 -0.1 -1.1 Russia 7.4 8.1 7.0 5.5 -0.7 -1.8 Brazil 3.8 5.4 5.2 3.5 0.3 -0.5 Developed Markets(1) 3.0 2.6 1.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.9 Emerging Markets(2) 7.9 8.0 6.9 6.1 -- -0.7 World 5.1 5.0 3.9 3.0 -0.2 -0.9 Note: (1) IMF equivalent of “advanced economies”; (2) IMF equivalent of “emerging and developing economies”; Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) database, 10/08. Morgan Stanley Research. 8
  • Stock Market = Leading Indicator of Economic Growth China off 71% vs. 12-Month Peak, Russia -67% / Japan -50% / Oil -53% / S&P500 -36% 600 2006 2007 2008 500 Indexed Value (base = 100) 400 300 200 100 0 10/05 1/06 4/06 7/06 10/06 1/07 4/07 7/07 10/07 1/08 4/08 7/08 10/08 S&P 500 NASDAQ Composite Index China Shanghai SE Composite India SENSEX Russia RTS Light Crude Oil - Continuous Contract Gold - Continuous Contract Japan Nikkei 225 Note: all indices start at a value of 100 on 10/31/05; data as of 10/31/08; Source: FactSet. 9
  • S&P500 – Your Customers Have Taken Big Hits Total Mkt % Change Cap ($B) 2008 Peak to S&P Sector 10/31/08 2006 2007 YTD Current (1) Market Cap Leaders Financials 1,314 16% -20% -41% -53% JPMorgan, Bank of America Consumer Discretionary 722 9 -18 -35 -46 McDonald's, Walt Disney Telecom Services 281 32 -12 -39 -44 AT&T, Verizon Industrials 930 8 7 -36 -41 GE, United Technologies Information Technology 1,393 11 12 -37 -40 Microsoft, IBM Materials 274 10 14 -37 -40 Monsanto, DuPont Utilities 325 17 6 -29 -33 Exelon, Southern Energy 1,118 14 36 -33 -30 Exxon, Chevron Health Care 1,192 1 1 -23 -27 Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer Consumer Staples 1,218 8 10 -14 -13 Wal-Mart, Procter & Gamble S&P 500 Total (2) 8,767 11% 1% -33% -38% Note: (1) % Change from S&P 500 peak of 10/9/07 to 10/31/08; (2) S&P 500 total market cap and % change, different from SP50 index price & % change. Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research. 10
  • Economy 2) Technology + Advertising Spending – closely tied to GDP growth…also, remembering 2000-2003 11
  • Retail Sales Growth Rates Slowing Retail Sales vs. Adjusted E-Commerce Sales Y/Y Growth, CQ3:01 - CQ2:08 40% 30% Y/Y Growth 20% 10% 0% CQ3:01 CQ3:02 CQ3:03 CQ3:04 CQ3:05 CQ3:06 CQ3:07 US Adjusted Retail E-Commerce Sales US Total Retail Sales Note: E-Commerce adjusted for eBay by adding eBay US gross merchandise volume and subtracting eBay US transaction revenue; Source: US Dept. of Commerce (CQ2:08), Morgan Stanley Research. 12
  • Advertising Growth Rates Slowing U.S. Advertising Spending by Medium, Y/Y % Change 25% 20% 15% 10% Y/Y Growth Rate 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 Overall Cable+Broadcast TV Magazines Newspapers Internet* Outdoor Radio *Note: Internet is adjusted to include search ad spending - TNS excludes search revenue from Internet ad spending, thus unadjusted data may under-report online ad spending / growth. Source: TNS, IAB, Morgan Stanley Research. 13
  • Advertising Spending & GDP Growth = High Correlation of 81% U.S. Advertising Spending Y/Y Growth vs. Real GDP Y/Y Growth, 1986 – 2007 20% 15% U.S. Ad Spend vs. GDP, Y/Y Growth 10% Median Y/Y Ad Spend Growth Rate = 5% 5% 0% 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 -5% 1991 Ad Growth = -2% 2001 Ad Growth = -12% -10% U.S. Real GDP Y/Y Growth U.S. Ad Spend Y/Y Growth Source: Zenith Optimedia, IMF, Morgan Stanley Research. 14
  • Simple Regression Analysis: 1) Ad spend growth 3x sensitivity of real GDP growth 2) If GDP flat (current MS forecast), ad spend could decline ~4% Y/Y U.S. Advertising Spending vs. Real GDP y = 3.0263x – 0.0394 20% 1986 – 2007 R2 = 0.6553 y – ad spend growth x – real GDP growth 15% Ad Spend Y/Y Growth If real GDP Ad spend Y/Y growth Y/Y growth 10% is… could be… 5% 11% 4 8 5% 3 5 2 2 1 -1 0% 0 -4 -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% -1 -7 -2 -10 -5% -3 -13 Real GDP Y/Y Growth -4 -16 -5 -19 -10% U.S. Ad Spend vs. Real GDP Y/Y Growth Linear Regression Line (y = 3.0263x - 0.0394 R^2 = 0.6553) Note: R2 of 0.655 indicates that correlation is not perfect (n=22), and correlation does not equal causation. Source: Zenith Optimedia, IMF, Morgan Stanley Research. 15
  • Online Ad Spending Bad News = From 2000 to 2002, USA Spending Fell 27% $25,000 U.S. Online Advertising Spending & Y/Y Growth Rates, 1996-2007 250% $21,206 200% $20,000 U.S. Online Ad Spending ($MM) $16,879 150% Y/Y Growth Rate $15,000 $12,542 100% $10,000 $9,475 $8,225 $7,134 $7,267 50% $6,009 $4,621 $5,000 0% $1,921 $907 $267 $0 -50% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 U.S. Internet Ad Spending Y/Y Growth Rate Source: IAB, Morgan Stanley Research. 16
  • Online Ad Spending Good News = Now, Less Ad ‘Over Spending’ vs. Trend Line However, Q/Q Pattern Looks a Bit Like Early 2001 U.S. Online Advertising Spending & Y/Y Growth Rates, CQ1:96-CQ2:08 $6,000 300% U.S. Online Spending & Search Revenue ($MM) 250% $5,000 Total U.S. Online Spend Y/Y Growth 200% $4,000 150% $3,000 100% $2,000 50% $1,000 0% $0 -50% 3/96 3/97 3/98 3/99 3/00 3/01 3/02 3/03 3/04 3/05 3/06 3/07 3/08 U.S. Online Ad Spending Spending on Search Y/Y Growth Online Ad Spend Polynomial Trendline Source: IAB, Morgan Stanley Research. 17
  • Tech Spending 2000-2003 – 2 Years of Negative / Flat Growth – -1% in 2001 / 0% in 2002 / +13% in 2003 2500 Global Technology Sector Revenue & Y/Y Growth, 1998-2008E 30% $2,261 $2,173 25% $1,959 2000 Average Y/Y $1,789 $1,708 20% Growth = 10% $1,484 Revenue ($B's) 1500 Y/Y Growth $1,331 $1,311 $1,313 15% $1,087 10% 1000 $911 5% 500 0% 0 -5% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E Total Revenue Y/Y Growth Note: Revenue and growth rates compiled from 570 publically traded global technology companies as of 10/30/08. Certain data points unavailable in earlier periods. 18 Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research.
  • 5 Quarters of Negative Q/Q Growth, Then 5 Quarters of Flat / Modest Growth – Trough Y/Y Decline of 13% in CQ4:01, Current CH2:08 Forecasts Show Faster Rate of Decline than CH2:01 Global Technology Sector Revenue & Y/Y Growth, 1998-2008E 700 30% 25% 600 Average Y/Y Growth = 10% 20% 500 15% Revenue ( $B's) Y/Y Growth (%) 400 10% 300 5% 0% 200 -5% 100 -10% 0 -15% CQ3:08E CQ4:08E CQ1:98 CQ1:99 CQ1:00 CQ1:01 CQ1:02 CQ1:03 CQ1:04 CQ1:05 CQ1:06 CQ1:07 CQ1:08 Total Revenue Y/Y Growth Note: Revenue and growth rates compiled from 570 publically traded global technology companies as of 10/30/08. Certain data points unavailable in earlier periods. 19 Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research.
  • Technology / Internet 1) Digital Consumer – Undermonetized social networks / video / VoIP driving powerful usage growth – opportunity for innovative marketers to capitalize on low CPMs 20
  • YouTube + Facebook Gained 500 Basis Points of Relative Share in Past 2+ Years While Yahoo! + MSN Lost Share Global Minute Share 7% 6% % Share of Global Minutes 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 6/06 9/06 12/06 3/07 6/07 9/07 12/07 3/08 6/08 9/08 Yahoo.com Msn.com YouTube.com Facebook.com Google.com Source: ComScore Global 9/08, Morgan Stanley Research. 21
  • Undermonetized Internet Usage Growth Drivers – Video + Social Networking + VoIP + Payments Users Y/Y Growth Comments #3 site in global minutes; 5B views of online video in the US (Americans watched a total of 12.6B videos / 591MM hours online in 9/08); 329MM(1) +52% #2 global search engine – search queries on YouTube reached 9.2B in 8/08 (+123% Y/Y), surpassing Yahoo! sites with 8.5B searches (+2% Y/Y).(1,2,3,6) #5 site in global minutes; 120MM+ active users; 50%+ users outside of college; 24K+ 161MM(1) +119% applications + 95% of Facebook members have used at least one(1,4) If ‘carrier’ then #2 behind China Mobile; $1.55 annualized revenue per registered user (-3% 370MM(5) +51% Y/Y); 2.2B Skype Out minutes (+54% Y/Y); 16.0B Skype-to-Skype minutes (+63% Y/Y)(5) $15B total payment volume (TPV), +28% Y/Y, higher than eBay’s global gross merchandise 65MM(5) +19% volume; Off-eBay payment volume +49% Y/Y to 51% of TPV(5) Source: (1) comScore global 9/08; (2) comScore Video Metrix 8/08; (3) YouTube; (4) Facebook; (5) eBay CQ3, (6) comScore qSearch, 8/08. Morgan Stanley Research. 22
  • Ad Supply > Ad Demand – Ad Impressions Growing Rapidly…CPMs Declining U.S. Banner Ad Impressions & CPM, U.S. Rich Media Impressions & CPM, 2005-2007 2005-2007 1,000,000 $3.50 35,000 $40 900,000 $35 $3.00 30,000 800,000 $30 700,000 $2.50 25,000 Impressions (MM) Impressions (MM) $25 600,000 20,000 $2.00 CPM CPM 500,000 $20 $1.50 15,000 400,000 $15 300,000 $1.00 10,000 $10 200,000 $0.50 5,000 $5 100,000 0 $0.00 0 $0 05 05 06 06 07 07 05 05 06 06 07 07 3/ 9/ 3/ 9/ 3/ 9/ 3/ 9/ 3/ 9/ 3/ 9/ Banner Ads Impressions Banner Ads CPM Rich Media Impressions Rich Media CPM Source: Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB), Nielsen NetRatings, Morgan Stanley Research. 23
  • Technology / Internet 2) Mobile – Innovation in wireless products / services accelerating – changes should create + destroy significant wealth 24
  • Mobile – A New Computing Cycle With Game Changer Products with Extraordinary Ease-of-Use Nintendo Wii Apple iPhone 3G 30MM consoles since 11/06 launch 1MM units sold in three days (10MM – raised bar with motion sensors + apps downloaded over the same playability period); mobile browser market share already 50% > Windows Mobile – raised bar with ease-of-use + functionality Microsoft Xbox 360 3 Skype Phone 12MM Xbox Live members (+100% 500K+ units in < 200 days. Leverage Y/Y) since 11/02 launch – raised large Skype user base of 370MM bar with online playability (+51%Y/Y) + create a low-cost web- enabled VoIP, social networking, digital presence phone. INQ1 next… Amazon.com Kindle Garmin + TomTom + Dash PND With free EV-DO + 190K titles + 18MM+ units sold in 2007 (+125% Y/Y) newspaper / magazine / blog – lower price points + innovative subscriptions. Amazon may do with features such as spoken street names books what Apple did with tunes. have driven NA / Western Europe PND Kindle accounts for 12% of penetration of 11% in 2007 AMZN’s sales for titles available on Kindle Source: Nintendo (CQ2:08), Microsoft, Amazon.com, Apple, TechCrunch estimates, eBay (CQ3), Garmin, TomTom, Net Applications 12/07, Morgan Stanley Research. 25
  • Notebooks Retrofitting to Cloud Via 3G – PCs Retrofitted to Internet Via Dial-Up ~1995 Deja Vu?! • Global cellular modem to rise from 5MM in 2006E to 68MM+ shipments in 2012E (53% CAGR) - ABI Research, 5/07 • 64% of new Austrian broadband subs used cellular modems, CQ2:07 • 66MM global WiFi unit shipments, C2007E - Synergy Research • 13MM cellular modem users in USA, CQ2:08E - Nielsen Mobile Source: ABI Research (Cellular modem shipments includes PC Cards / ExpressCards, USB modems, internal modems + 3G/Wi-Fi routers); Synergy Research Group (Access Points, Wireless Gateways / Routers, Wireless Client Adaptors, VoWLAN phones); Nielsen Mobile. 26
  • Opera Mobile Web Browser Illustrates Mobile Internet Growth - ~17MM Users (+357% Y/Y), 4.1B Page Views (+337% Y/Y), 8/08 A full web experience + 50% faster Pages transcoded per month − Remote Server first pre- processes requested web pages − Web content is then compressed to reduce the size of data transfer − Fully-rendered web pages sent to your phone − Advantage: full web rendering and faster browsing on simpler phones 2006 2007 2008 Source: Opera Software, Morgan Stanley Research. 27
  • Mobile Internet Evolving Very Quickly Date Important Announcements in the Mobile Industry 10/01/08 AT&T announces reorganization to better align broadband, TV and mobile services for consumers. 10/01/08 Apple drops the non-disclosure agreement (NDA) for iPhone application developers. 9/30/08 Nokia to acquire leading consumer email and instant messaging provider OZ Communications. 9/29/08 Nokia’s Chief Technology Officer Bob Iannucci resigns. 9/28/08 Motorola to build a 350-person Android team. 9/24/08 Google, T-Mobile and HTC launch G1, the first phone based on Google’s Android open mobile platform. 8/04/08 Motorola hires Qualcomm’s Sanjay Jha as co-chief executive to oversee the mobile devices division. 7/23/08 Nokia, Qualcomm settle patent dispute. 7/11/08 Apple and AT&T launch iPhone 3G in the U.S. 6/24/08 Nokia acquires Symbian Limited and establishes the Symbian Foundation. 5/12/08 RIM introduces the BlackBerry Bold smartphone. 5/12/08 RIM, RBC and Thomson Reuters to anchor a $150MM BlackBerry Partner Fund focused on developing mobile applications. 5/08/08 Apple, KPCB launches $100MM iFund venture capital pool to support iPhone / iPod Touch application development. Source: Nokia, AT&T, Apple, Motorola, Google, T-Mobile, RIM, as of 10/01/08. Morgan Stanley Research. 28
  • Symbian Dominates Smartphones But Losing Share – USA Could Gain Lead in Mobile Internet Innovation!? 35 Quarterly Worldwide Smartphone Sales by OS Vendor 30 Units Shipped (MM) 25 20 15 10 5 0 CQ1:05 CQ2:05 CQ3:05 CQ4:05 CQ1:06 CQ2:06 CQ3:06 CQ4:06 CQ1:07 CQ2:07 CQ3:07 Symbian Linux Access Microsoft RIM Apple Others CQ3:07 Dist.of Smartphone Sales 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% EMEA Japan China North America ROW Source: Canalys, Symbian, 2007. 29
  • Still Early in 3G+ Ramp But… 2010 Should Be Inflection Point @ ~22% of Subscribers Global 3G+ Penetration 5 40% % of Total Wireless Subscribers 4 30% Subscribers (B) 3 20% 2 10% 1 0 0% 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2.5G and Below Subscriptions 3G and Above Subscriptions % 3G and Above Penetration Note: 2.5G can be compared to ‘narrowband’ Internet access, while 3G can be compared to ‘broadband ’ Internet access. Source: Ovum, Morgan Stanley Research. 30
  • Asia / Europe Lead in Mobile $s – Mobile Data 25% of Carrier Revenue in Asia vs. 18% in US, 2007 1,600 1,400 30% 25% 25 Subscribers (MM) 1,200 20% 1,000 20 18% 800 15 600 10 400 200 5 0 Mobile Subscribers Mobile Data Subscribers Mobile Data as % of Revenue (leading carrier in region) Asia Pacific Europe LatAm ROW N. America Source: ITU, Informa, Company Reports. Includes SMS; (1) Leading carriers by wireless subscribers in Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America are: China Mobile, Vodafone (Europe only), and AT&T, respectively. 31
  • Japan Leads in Mobile Internet Usage – Mobile Nearly Matches PC Japan Internet Users by Access Device 100% 90% 81% 81% 83% % of Japan Internet Users 80% 73% 70% 58% 60% 50% 40% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 % using PC % using Mobile Source: Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication. 32
  • TV + Internet + Mobile (CBS) – Complementary Platforms 2007 Football Season 2007 Football Season Thursday CBS Television Kickoff NFL CBSSports.com Sundays CBS Mobile Patriots vs. Colts • Plasma Screen TV – HD Quality Event • PC Screen – Fantasy, Stats, and Injury Reports • Mobile Screen – Highlights, Scores Source: CBS Sports Interactive. 33
  • Technology / Internet 3) Emerging Markets – Pacing next wave of technology adoption – leading players in many emerging markets aren’t the usual suspects… 34
  • Broadband + Mobile + Internet = Especially High Global Growers 2002 Y/Y 2007 Y/Y Global 2007 Net Category Growth Rate Growth Rate Market Size Additions Broadband Subscribers 78% 23% 349MM 64MM Mobile Subscribers 20 20 3,319MM 563MM (1) Internet Users 26 16 1,352MM 182MM (2) Financial Cards 12 11 8,016MM 804MM Installed PCs 12 8 900MM 66MM Cable / Satellite TV Subscriptions 8 6 761MM 40MM GDP per Capita 2 3 22K 1K Population 2 1 6,501MM 77MM Telephone Lines 5 -0 1,277MM -4MM Note: (1) Include mobile Internet users, based on ITU’s compilation of country reports, surveys and estimates; (2) Includes credit / debit / ATM / charge cards in circulation; Source: Morgan Stanley Research. 35
  • Top 10 Emerging Markets to Surpass Top 10 Developed Markets in Internet Users in 2008 Top 10 Emerging Markets vs. Top 10 Developed Markets – Internet Users 700 80% 600 70% 60% Internet Users (MM) 500 Y/Y Growth 50% 400 40% 300 30% 200 20% 100 10% 0 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E Top 10 Emerging Markets Top 10 Developed Markets Top 10 EM Y/Y Growth Top 10 DM Y/Y Growth Note: Emerging / developed markets as defined by IMF; Top 10 chosen based on largest GDP. Top 10 emerging markets: China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia, Iran, Poland, and Saudi Arabia; Top 10 developed markets: U.S., Japan, Germany, U.K., France, Italy, Spain, Canada, South Korea, and Australia; Source: IMF, ITU, Morgan Stanley Research. 36
  • Internet User Net Additions – China, Brazil, Pakistan, Columbia, India, Iran, Russia Impressive 2007 Net Internet Users Added 2007 Penetration Rank Country (000's) Y/Y Growth Level 1 China 73,000 53% 16% 2 United States 9,800 5 73 3 Brazil 7,400 17 26 4 Pakistan 5,500 46 11 5 Colombia 5,395 80 25 6 India 5,000 7 7 7 Iran 5,000 28 32 8 Russia 4,311 17 21 9 Germany 3,900 10 52 10 France 3,553 12 55 11 Vietnam 3,188 22 21 12 Canada 3,000 12 85 13 Egypt 2,620 44 12 14 Indonesia 2,424 23 6 15 United Kingdom 2,400 6 66 16 Mexico 2,248 11 22 17 Thailand 2,003 18 20 18 Nigeria 2,000 25 7 19 Poland 1,915 14 42 20 Venezuela 1,580 38 21 Note: Penetration is per person. Source: ITU, Morgan Stanley Research. 37
  • Mobile Subscriber Net Additions – Pakistan = 226% more than USA, Indonesia = 33% more than USA, Iran just 5% less than USA 2007 Net Mobile Subs 2007 Penetration Rank Country Added (000's) Y/Y Growth Level(1) 1 China 86,228 19% 41% 2 India 67,570 41 21 3 Pakistan 44,346 129 50 4 Brazil 21,062 21 64 5 Russia 19,326 13 120 6 Indonesia 18,032 28 36 7 United States 13,596 6 85 8 Iran 12,910 77 42 9 Egypt 12,046 67 41 10 Germany 11,499 13 118 11 Mexico 11,237 20 65 12 Thailand 10,654 26 78 13 Turkey 9,313 18 90 14 Argentina 8,891 28 103 15 Saudi Arabia 8,718 44 117 16 Vietnam 8,225 53 28 17 Nigeria 8,073 25 28 18 Philippines 7,306 17 57 19 Peru 6,645 76 55 20 Algeria 6,565 31 80 Note: (1) Penetration is per person; mobile subscribers include all active SIM card subscriptions; people in many countries outside of the US use more than one SIM cards on a regular basis, which may results in greater than 100% penetration levels. 38 Source: Morgan Stanley Research.
  • Closing Thoughts 1) Companies with cogent business models that provide consumer value should survive / thrive – consumers need value more than they have needed it in a long time…and the Internet should be the best place to find it… 39
  • Lots of Retail Share to Gain USA Online Penetration = 6% and Rising Categories’ Online Penetration of US Retail Market, 2007 >20% 10 - 20% <10% Computer products 45% Toys / video games 19% Home furnishings 9% Other event tickets 27% Baby products 19% Cosmetics / fragrances 9% Books 24% Consumer electronics 18% Sporting goods / apparel 8% Music / video 24% Office supplies 13% OTC meds / personal care 6% Gift cards / certificates 21% Flowers / cards 12% Appliances / tools 5% Jewelry 11% Pet supplies 4% Apparel / footwear 10% Auto / auto parts 2% Movie tickets 10% Food / beverage / grocery 1% Source: The State of Retailing Online 2008 (Forrester Research). 40
  • Amazon.com Should Continue to Gain Share High Customer Satisfaction / Recommendation Engine / Impressive Metrics Amazon.com vs. US Retail Amazon.com 45% (1) E-Commerce Sales Key Operating Metrics 40% CQ4:07 CQ1:08 CQ2:08 CQ3:08 35% Revenue $5,673 $4,135 $4,063 $4,264 30% Y/Y Growth 42% 37% 41% 31% Y/Y Growth 25% Active Customers 76 79 82 85 ~27ppts 20% Y/Y Growth 19% 19% 18% 17% TTM Revenue per $195 $202 $210 $215 15% Active Customer Y/Y Growth 17% 17% 19% 18% 10% Total Units 241 196 190 203 5% Y/Y Growth 33% 31% 32% 30% 0% (All metrics in MMs, except for TTM Revenue per Active Customer) CQ2:02 CQ2:03 CQ2:04 CQ2:05 CQ2:06 CQ2:07 CQ2:08 US Adjusted Retail E-Commerce Sales Amazon.com North America Revenue US Total Retail Sales (1) Adjusted for eBay by adding eBay US gross merchandise volume and subtracting eBay US transaction revenue; Source: Amazon.com (CQ2:08), US Dept. of Commerce (CQ2:08), Morgan Stanley Research. 41
  • Lots of Ad Share to Gain $288 Per Home vs. $818 for Newspapers Implies Upside 2007 Advertising Ad Spending / Medium Spending ($B) Households (MM) Household ($) Direct Telephone $110 107 $1,032 Promotions 116 115 1,011 Newspapers 46 56 818 Classifieds 15 56 260 Direct Mail 61 114 532 Broadcast TV 44 112 390 Cable TV 27 80 327 Internet / Online 21 71 288 Radio 20 113 172 Yellow Pages 16 114 141 Outdoor 7 114 63 Total $469 $4,774 Average 47 477 Newspapers include Classifieds. Promotions ($116B) include: incentives ($30B), promotional products ($27B), point-of- purchase ($19B), specialty printing ($9B), coupons ($7B), premiums ($7B), promotional licensing ($7B), promotional fulfillment ($6B), product sampling ($2B), and in-store marketing ($2B). Households may use multiple advertising mediums. Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, IAB, Jupiter Research, McCann-Erickson, Morgan Stanley Research. 42
  • Search Should Continue to Become More Important – 34% Y/Y Google Query Growth (CQ3:08) % of New Online Customers for Online Retailers / Marketing Spend Mix 40% % Customers acquired from source 35% 30% 30% 27% 20% 18% 13% 11% 9% 10% 7% 6% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% N/A N/A N/A 0% es g ls s ts es g ls c s s s s ne tin sin ffi m ad ea ea ke lis og sit sit tra ra ke gi ta ld rti ld al g er eb og en ng in ps ar ve at ic ta rta nn rW ct pr ki C m an ee ad or on Ba po pe or te lp ne rg Sw he ris w e os ia ew O na in gi et pa ot fil pr ffl en ln N itio Af m on O o cia co ch lt ad n ai So ar tio Tr ng Em Se ra pi st op gi Sh re o- C 2006 2007 Source: The State of Retailing Online 2007 / 2008 (Forrester Research), comScore global 9/08, Morgan Stanley Research. 43
  • While CPMs / CPCs May be Under Near-Term Pressure, If Targeting / ROI Continue to Improve (as they should) There Should Be Long-Term Upside Estimated CPMs Source: Yahoo! Investor Presentation, 3/08. 44
  • Best News = History Proves That Ads Follow Eyeballs, It Just Takes Time 1996 – Morgan Stanley Global Estimates in ‘The Internet Advertising Report’ 2007 – We’re @ Internet Users: 1.35B(1) Online Ad Revenue: $41B(2) Ad Revenue per User: $30(3) Note: (1) ITU, Morgan Stanley Research estimate, comScore reports a lower number for global unique visitors due to their sampling method; (2) ZenithOptimedia; (3) Using comScore’s #s, global online ad revenue per unique user would have been ~$53; Source: ITU, ZenithOptimedia, Morgan Stanley Research. 45
  • Disclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared by Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, and/or Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A. and their affiliates (collectively, quot;Morgan Stanleyquot;). For important disclosures, stock price charts and rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures, or contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Equity Research Management), New York, NY, 10036 USA. Analyst Certification The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report: Mary Meeker. Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are research analysts. Global Research Conflict Management Policy Morgan Stanley Research has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy, which is available at www.morganstanley.com/institutional/research/conflictpolicies. Important US Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies The following analyst, strategist, or research associate (or a household member) owns securities (or related derivatives) in a company that he or she covers or recommends in Morgan Stanley Research: Mary Meeker - Amazon.com (common stock, common stock), eBay (common stock, common stock), Yahoo! (common stock, common stock). Morgan Stanley policy prohibits research analysts, strategists and research associates from investing in securities in their sub industry as defined by the Global Industry Classification Standard (quot;GICS,quot; which was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and S&P). Analysts may nevertheless own such securities to the extent acquired under a prior policy or in a merger, fund distribution or other involuntary acquisition. As of September 30, 2008, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research: Amazon.com, eBay, Google, GSI COMMERCE, WebMD Health Corp., Yahoo!. As of October 31, 2008, Morgan Stanley held a net long or short position of US$1 million or more of the debt securities of the following issuers covered in Morgan Stanley Research (including where guarantor of the securities): Amazon.com, eBay, GSI COMMERCE, Yahoo!. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from Dice Holdings, Inc., eBay, GSI COMMERCE. In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Amazon.com, Dice Holdings, Inc., eBay, Google, GSI COMMERCE, TechTarget, Inc., WebMD Health Corp., Yahoo!. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from eBay. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has provided or is providing investment banking services to, or has an investment banking client relationship with, the following company: Amazon.com, Dice Holdings, Inc., eBay, Google, GSI COMMERCE, TechTarget, Inc., WebMD Health Corp., Yahoo!. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has either provided or is providing non-investment banking, securities-related services to and/or in the past has entered into an agreement to provide services or has a client relationship with the following company: eBay, Google. The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of Morgan Stanley Research have received compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues and overall investment banking revenues. An employee or director of Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated is a director of Yahoo!. Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated makes a market in the securities of Amazon.com, drugstore.com, eBay, Google, GSI COMMERCE, TechTarget, Inc., WebMD Health Corp., Yahoo!. Certain disclosures listed above are also for compliance with applicable regulations in non-US jurisdictions. 46
  • Disclosure Section STOCK RATINGS Morgan Stanley uses a relative rating system using terms such as Overweight, Equal-weight or Underweight (see definitions below). Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover. Overweight, Equal-weight and Underweight are not the equivalent of Buy, Hold and Sell. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Morgan Stanley Research. In addition, since Morgan Stanley Research contains more complete information concerning the analyst's views, investors should carefully read Morgan Stanley Research, in its entirety, and not infer the contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations. Global Stock Ratings Distribution (as of October 31, 2008) For disclosure purposes only (in accordance with NASD and NYSE requirements), we include the category headings of Buy, Hold, and Sell alongside our ratings of Overweight, Equal- weight and Underweight. Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover. Overweight, Equal-weight, and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, hold, and sell but represent recommended relative weightings (see definitions below). To satisfy regulatory requirements, we correspond Overweight, our most positive stock rating, with a buy recommendation; we correspond Equal-weight to hold and Underweight to sell recommendations, respectively. Coverage Universe Investment Banking Clients (IBC) Stock Rating Category Count % of Total Count % of Total IBC % of Rating Category Overweight/Buy 869 39% 275 42% 32% Equal-weight/Hold 983 44% 286 44% 28% Underweight/Sell 403 18% 89 14% 22% Total 2,255 650 Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley or an affiliate received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months. 47
  • Disclosure Section Analyst Stock Ratings Overweight (O). The stock's total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. Equal-weight (E). The stock's total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. Underweight (U). The stock's total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12- 18 months. More volatile (V). We estimate that this stock has more than a 25% chance of a price move (up or down) of more than 25% in a month, based on a quantitative assessment of historical data, or in the analyst's view, it is likely to become materially more volatile over the next 1-12 months compared with the past three years. Stocks with less than one year of trading history are automatically rated as more volatile (unless otherwise noted). We note that securities that we do not currently consider quot;more volatilequot; can still perform in that manner. Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in Morgan Stanley Research is 12 to 18 months. Analyst Industry Views Attractive (A): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be attractive vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. 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  • Disclosure Section © 2008 Morgan Stanley 50