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Overcoming Imposible Projects

Overcoming Imposible Projects

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Overcoming Imposible Projects Overcoming Imposible Projects Presentation Transcript

  • Overcoming Impossible Projects By Orlando Moreno, PMP Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 1
  • How Many Projects Fail? Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 2
  • Standish Group, 1998 • 26% Successful (on time/on budget) • 46% “Challenged” (late, over budget, etc.) • 28% Cancelled “75% of All Projects Fail” Behind the numbers: • Software Development Projects, averaging $2M • Reported by CIOs, IT Managers, CTOs Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 3
  • Real Projects: The Truth Is Out There Projects “Fail” for Three Reasons: 1. The Objective (Scope) Is Actually Impossible. 2. The Project Is Overconstrained. 3. The Project Is Poorly Planned and Executed. Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 4
  • Project Risk Management Depends on Project Planning to: • Identify (and Avoid) Truly Impossible Projects. • Develop Negotiation Data for Overconstrained Projects. • Eliminate Poorly Planned and Executed Projects. Two Sides of the Same Coin: You Cannot Manage What Might Go Wrong Until You Know What “Going Right” Looks Like. Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 5
  • PERIL Database Project Experience Risk Information Library • Over 200 Project Records • Primarily IT and Product Development Projects • World-wide • All Risk Impacts Normalized to Schedule Slippage Americas Asia Eur/ME Total IT/Solution 67 25 13 105 Product Development 56 45 16 117 Total 123 70 29 222 Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 6
  • PERIL Database Risk Types Risk Types: • Scope (Changes, Defects) • Resources (People, Outsourcing, Money) • Schedule (Delay, Dependency, Estimates) Cumulative Average Impact Count Impact (weeks) (weeks) Scope 76 478 6.3 Schedule 82 306 3.7 Resource 64 361 5.6 Total 222 1145 5.2 Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 7
  • of Weeks Impact Project Orlando Moreno 100 150 200 250 300 50 0 Scope Change Scope Defect Resource People Schedule Delay Resource Outsourcing omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 Schedule Dependency Schedule Estimates PERIL Relative Risk Severity Resource Money 8
  • PERIL Scope Risks • Changes (Scope Creep, Gaps, Dependencies) • Defects (Hardware, Software, Integration) Cumulative Average Impact Scope Count Impact (weeks) (weeks) Change 46 280 6.1 Defect 30 198 6.6 Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 9
  • PERIL Scope Risk Severity 200 160 Weeks of 120 Project Impact 80 40 0 Gap Change Defect Software Integration Defect Hardware Dependency Defect Change Scope Creep Change Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 10
  • Scope Risk Remedies • Scope Planning • Work Breakdown Structure • Change Control • Worst Case and System Analysis • Evolutionary or Cyclic Development Methods Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 11
  • PERIL Resource Risks • People (Loss, Temporary Loss, Late Start, Queuing) • Outsourcing (Delay, Turnover, Late Start) • Money Cumulative Average Impact Resource Count Impact (weeks) (weeks) People 45 194 4.3 Outsourcing 17 109 6.4 Money 2 58 29.0 Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 12
  • of Weeks Impact Project Orlando Moreno 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 Outsourcing Delay Money Limitation People Loss People Late start People Queuing People Temp. loss omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 People Motivation Outsourcing Late start Outsourcing Turnover PERIL Resource Risk Severity People 13 Conflict
  • Resource Risk Remedies • Resource Planning • Project Staffing—by Name • Sponsorship • Contracting Competence • Co-Location Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 14
  • PERIL Schedule Risks • Delay (Hardware, Parts, Decisions, Information) • Dependency (Projects, Support, Other) • Estimates (Judgment, Learning Curve, Deadline) Cumulative Average Impact Schedule Count Impact (weeks) (weeks) Delay 46 134 2.9 Dependency 21 102 4.9 Estimates 15 70 4.7 Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 15
  • of Weeks Impact Project 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 Orlando Moreno Dependency Project Delay Parts Estimation Judgment Delay Decision Delay Hardware Dependency Support omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 Estimation Learning Delay Information Estimation PERIL Schedule Risk Severity Deadline Dependency 16 Other
  • Schedule Risk Remedies • Dependency Analysis • Interface Analysis • Estimation Methods and Metrics • Worst Case Analysis Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 17
  • PERT Schedule Analysis Program Evaluation and Review Technique 0 to tm t e tp Duration 1% 50% 99% But… What About Parkinson’s Law? Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 18
  • Worst Case Schedule Analysis 0 tm te tw Duration to “Worst Case” Estimating Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 19
  • Project Risk Management • Use Qualitative (and When Appropriate, Quantitative) Analysis to Assess Risk Severity. • Avoid or Mitigate All Severe Preventable Risks. • Transfer or Establish Contingency Plans for All Other Severe Risks. • Reduce Project Size, Complexity. • Establish Reserves for Schedule and/or Budget Based on Risk Analysis. • Negotiate Project Objectives Consistent with Credible Plans. Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 20
  • So… If Planning and Analysis Show Your Project Is Impossible: • Change It, Avoid It, or Stop It, Early. If Planning Shows the Project Is Overconstrained: • Negotiate the Constraints. • Set Appropriate Reserves. Schedule Resources • Manage Risks. If Planning is Poor, or Not Done: • You are part of the “75%.” Scope Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 21
  • Questions? Orlando A. Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 22
  • “One of the things we always like to remind ourselves before we do any job was to expect the unexpected. Right? Right. Always sounds like good advice. Except of course, if you are expecting the unexpected, well, then it really isn’t unexpected anymore, is it? And that leaves you vulnerable to the truly unexpected, because you are not expecting it.” —Bruce Willis’s character in Bandits (2001) Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 23