4. Safe or Not ? Source: IPCC Hurricanes Fires, Floods Extinctions System Losses 600 M Displaced Flooding NY Flooded Catastrophe Planet Crash 450ppm 550ppm 650ppm
21. Our Current Course http://www.solar2006.org/presentations/plenaries/p02-hansen.pdf 450 ppm CO 2 Biosphere
22. Defeatism or Action ? We insure our homes Why not our planet?
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30. Renewable Energy USA! Source: NREL, USDA, NRCS, EIA West, SouthWest have solar… Texas has wind & solar … Southeast has biomass! Rockies have geothermal! Midwest has corn/wheat belt!
31. Regional Co-operation! Source: NREL, USDA, NRCS, EIA Solar Wind Biomass Geothermal We need a power grid from California to Florida
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37. What Are Fossil Fuels’ Externalities? Source: Coghill Capital Management High Medium Low Fossil Fuel Costs (Billions $USD) $640.30 $365.00 $88.10 Total Fossil Fuel Costs $450.00 $237.00 $24.03 Healthcare Treatment and Mortality from Pollution $93.30 $53.00 $14.80 Environmental Monitoring and Clean Up $100.00 $75.00 $49.00 Military Base and Supply Route Security
42. Mascoma Verenium Range Coskata Altra Cilion Hawaii Bio Ethos Tools Solar Natural Gas Mechanical Efficiency Electrical Efficiency Cellulosic Future Fuels Plastics Water Materials Nanostellar Codon Praj Quos NanoH2o Segetis eChromics Calera Stion Ausra Altarock Infinia Coal Efficiency Oil Transonic Streamline Living Homes GIV Seeo Newco1 Great Point Energy Corn/ Sugar Fuels Wind Building Materials Geothermal LS9 Gevo Amyris LanzaTech Khosla Ventures Renewable Portfolio
52. Electricity = biggest and fastest growing carbon problem IEA WEO 2004 Courtesy Steve Koonin, BP 1971 2002 2030
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54. Demographic Transformations source: United Nations 6.3 billion 8.9 billion Oceania Africa N-America S-America Europe Asia Oceania Africa N-America S-America Europe Asia Largest Segment Population 2003 Population 2050
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56. Our Current Course http://www.solar2006.org/presentations/plenaries/p02-hansen.pdf 450 ppm CO 2 Biosphere
57. Solution : Phase Out Coal http://www.solar2006.org/presentations/plenaries/p02-hansen.pdf Biosphere 450 ppm CO 2
63. Standard and Poor’s Assessment Source: Jim Harding Capital Costs: Costs of constructing the plant Direct Generation Cost: Costs of generating electricity Cost W/CCS: Direct Generation Cost + cost of Carbon Capture and Storage – total cost of electricity generation with CCS Cost w/ CO2 Credits ($10-$30 per ton): Direct Generation Cost + cost of CO2 credits - – total cost of electricity generation with Carbon Credits CCS vs. Carbon Credits Cost w/CO2 Credits ($10-$30 per ton) Cost W/CCS (cents/kWh) Direct Generation Cost (cents/kWh) Capital Cost ($/kW) 6.2-7.9 12.0 5.8 2438 Pulverized Coal 7-7.7 9.6 6.8 700 Gas (CCCT) 7.1-8.7 10.2 6.8 2795 Eastern IGCC 7.1 7.1 7.1 1700 Wind 8.9-9.8 8.9-9.8 8.9 4000 Nuclear
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65. Nuclear Plants Are Expensive! Koomey, Jonathan, and Nate Hultman. 2007. “A Reactor-Level Analysis of Busbar Costs for US nuclear plants,” 1970-2005, forthcoming in Energy Policy Source: Jim Harding
66. Wind Doesn’t Match Utility Demand http://www.uwasa.fi/itt/teti/sahko/NEPF/vasa_nordiskvind.ppt Utilities want to buy power when customers need it Not when the wind blows or the sun shines! Stored power is key to increasing value of wind kwh Wind Random vs. Load Lots of power at 2am Lots of Daily Variability (30%+)
67. Untrustworthy Predictions: Natural Gas AEO projected natural gas prices versus actual wellhead prices Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 2006
68. US Electric Power: Coal Is Back www.eia.doe.gov www.oilnergy.com Natural Gas Price “ As natural-gas supplies and prices have become a problem, the power industry is shifting to coal in a big way, with plans to build more than 100 coal-fired power plants in coming years at a potential cost of more than $100 billion” As Utilities Seek More Coal, Railroads Struggle to Deliver “ Wall Street Journal - March 15, 2006
79. Projections Are More Conservative Than Reality Source: Projections – Black and Veatch, Cost estimates from UCS, NyTimes, Other news sources $2,333 Cancelled Kansas (Westar) - PC $3,000 Approval granted in 2007 Cliffside (Duke Energy) – PC $3,500+ Commence ops in 2012 West Virginia (AEP)– IGCC $3,593 Review on hold Mesaba (Excelsior) – IGCC $2,168 Construction starts mid-2008 Big Stone II, South Dakota (Otter) - PC $2,500 Springfield, IL - PC 2,840 2020 B&V Projected - Coal - IGCC 2,750 2005 B&V Projected - Coal - IGCC 2,840 2010 B&V Projected - Coal - IGCC 2,240 2020 B&V Projected - New Coal (SC) $6,000+ Commence ops in 2012 at earliest FutureGen – near zero emission demonstration plant 2,180 2010 B&V Projected - New Coal (SC) 2,120 2005 B&V Projected - New Coal (SC) Capital Cost ($/kW) – 2006$ Install Date Type
82. What is the cost of future CO 2 limits in the US? Source: Synapse Energy Economics, Climate Change and Power: Carbon Dioxide Emissions Costs and Electricity Resource Planning , May 2006.
83. Carbon Dioxide prices Pulverized Coal Uneconomic Source: EIA, “NEMS EMM Factors for AEO06,” spreadsheet, 2006, and Synapse, 2006. The costs are representative of a new coal plant built in the Midwest in 2015. High $30/t, $77/mwh Mid $19/t, $66/mwh Low $8/t, $55/mwh 20 40 60 80 100 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2 ($/ton) Levelized Cost $/mwh
84. Is coal an effective way to avoid carbon? a sample projection Assume 85% capacity factor for all technologies. Source: : “IGCC: Next Step on the Path to Gasification-Based Energy from Coal,” Robert H. Williams, 2004. Cost estimates similar to estimates in “The Cost of Carbon Capture,” by Jeremy David and Howard Herzog (2000) and “Evaluation of Fossil Fuel Power Plants with CO_2 Recovery,” NETL (2002). Compilation: Sylvia Smullin
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91. Who wants to be a millionaire? Knowing each plant =600,000 cars of liability (Starting with $150 billion) Whose $150 billion?
94. The Face (Externalities?) of Coal Source: “ Concentrated Solar Power Potential in China”, Deepak Boggavarapu PhD China GDP growth = China environmental damage? & health care costs?
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98. Air pollution from power plants causes deaths Source: Clean Air Task Force, June 2004. Deaths per 100,000 adults range from <1 (blue) to >30 (pink) … guess where all the coal power plants are?
99. Health Costs of Pollution from Power Plants Source: Robert H. Williams, 2004. “ Pulverized coal” plant incurs high health costs Mean cost for 2004 BACT coal = 2.3 cent/kWh. This means that coal-generated electricity in the US annually incurs $46 bill in health costs
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106. Western US Coal Plants http://www.westernresourceadvocates.org/media/pdf/CA%20Coal%20Shadow.pdf Current Planned
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109. *Projected development assuming states achieve annual renewable energy targets. **If achieved, IA, IL, and ME goals would support an additional 4,400 MW by 2020. HI CA NV IA & WI NJ CT & RI MA ME MN AZ & NM NY TX New renewable energy supported: - 46,270 MW by 2020** Equivalent to: - 17.7 million less cars MD CO & MT PA DC & DE WA Renewable Energy from State Standards* BIG MARKET: BIG CARROT
116. Scalability : Land For All Electricity Carlo Rubbia, SolarPACES2006 earthobservatory.nasa.gov All Worldwide Electricity
117. USA… Looking Good Creating a U.S. Market for Solar Energy, by Rhone Resch, President of the Solar Energy Industries Association. Germany: 57% world PV US: 7% world PV
118. Area requirements to power the USA (150 km) 2 of Nevada covered with 15% efficient solar cells could provide the USA with electricity J.A. Turner, Science 285 1999, p. 687. ½ as much land with 30% efficient turbines
119. How Much California Land? 2005 Load: 52 GW 2020 Load: 69 GW Google Earth California Energy Commission NREL All New Load Through 2020: 17 GW (15x15mi) Shut All The Coal Plants Close All Non-Hydro
129. Three Gorges Dam ~18 GW generating capacity >25 years planning and construction ~1.3 million people displaced ~630 sq km reservoir >$50B estimated actual construction cost CSP would generate 1.7 times the power in same land area at significantly lower capital cost and faster construction time. Source: “ Concentrated Solar Power Potential in China”, Deepak Boggavarapu PhD
142. Solar Correlates with the Load Solar Highly Correlated with CA loads Timeshifted a few hours Very predictable and steady (10%) Demand Generation Larger Solar Array “ Clipped” At Max Output Power More Hours of Peak Load Served
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146. CA Electric Power Black and Veatch, Economic, Environmental, and Energy Benefits of Concentrating Solar Power in California, April 2006; PV www.solarbuzz.com DPT Luz2 250. 200. 25% 0 1 PV, 2006 45.0 45.0 65% n/a 1500 Pulverized Coal, BASE 120 107 25.0% 0 150 Luz2 DPT 150MW 134.0 120.0 40.4% 6 150 Parabolic Trough 2011 173.0 154.0 28.4% 0 100 Parabolic Trough 104.0 104.0 40.0% n/a 500 Combined Cycle Gas, INTERMEDIATE 168.0 168.0 10.0% n/a 85 Simple Cycle Gas, PEAKING Nom LEC, 10%ITC Nom LEC, 30%ITC Capacity Factor Storage, hours Capacity, MW
158. Geothermal Potential Source: Matthew Clyne, Black Mountain Technology, MIT 7,188,200 MWe 12¢ kW/hr 1,251,351 MWe 10¢ kW/hr Geothermal Potential in the United States
163. RISK: Oil vs. Hydrogen vs. Ethanol Source: Khosla High Low Low Low Low Med Low Low Low Low Low Med Med-High Very Low Very Low Very Low Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Med-Low High High ? - Energy Security Risk Cost per Mile Infrastructure Cost Technology Risk Environmental Cost Implementation Risk Interest Group Opposition Political Difficulty Time to Impact Low Med-Low Very High Low Very High Very Low Low High Very High Low High ? Low Very high - Med Very High Very Low Low Very High Very Low Low Med-High Med Low Low High Biofuels Hydrogen Oil
174. Energy Crops: Sorghum 25 tons/acre (Prof. Holtzapple- Texas A&M)
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176. Biomass Will Make a Difference Turning South Dakota into… … a member of OPEC?! Farm acres Tons/acre Gallons/ton Thousand barrels/day Today Tomorrow 44 Million 5 60 857 44 Million 15 80 3,429 Iraq Kuwait Libya Nigeria Thousand barrels/day 1,700 2,600 1,650 2,200 Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE 800 9,400 2,500 South Dakota 3,429 Iran 3,900 Venezuela 2,500 Algeria 1,380 Indonesia 925 Source: Ceres Company Presentation
177. Conservative Cellulosic (24tpy/108gpt) Sugar Cane + Baggasse (11 tpy/102gpt) Corn, Cellulose, Cane Today Large Improvements Are Visible Brazil Energy Cane Cellulosic (10tpy/100gpt) Biodiesel
195. Potential of Synthetic Biology Synthetic Biology Recombinant Small Molecule Bio-Synthetic Pathway Gene 4 Gene 2 Gene 1 Gene 3 Gene 1 Artimisinin Source of genes Custom-Built Microbe Fermentation Diesel Synthetic Biology = Fermentation Diesel X Anti-Malarial
196. Hydrocarbon Biosynthesis: Nature’s Energy Storage Designer Hydrocarbons Metabolic modeling + Synthetic biology Renewable Feedstock LS9 Designer Biofuels & Chemicals X X X X X X X X >90% Energetic Yield From Feedstock Hydrocarbons
223. Hybrids or Ethanol? Ethanol is a far cheaper and more scalable solution! 20-30% Oil reduction High Impact to automakers Battery breakthrough Scalability $5000 Cost 20-30% Carbon reduction Hybrid 90% Low Cellulosic Breakthrough $50 20-30% Corn Ethanol
237. Hieroglyphic Writings… A specimen of an Egyptian language writing ca. 530 B.C. ca. 2000 A.D. A version of graphic representation of “ Top 12 DOE platform chemicals from glucose” letters syllables words poems
238. Enabling Renewable Value Chains for Sustainable Chemical Industry Renewable Feedstocks (crops & forestry) Industrial Bioproducts New Industrial Bioproducts Triglycerides (vegetable oils) Soybean, Linseed, Corn, Canola Carbohydrates Starch Sucrose Cellulose/Wood Bioplastics Specialty polymers Polymer additives Performance Surfactants Adhesives Coalescent Solvents Other Biodiesel Compound set A Compound set B Fuel ethanol Compound C Other Products Technologies: Synergy of Renewable Feedstocks
247. DuPont Sorona http://www.azom.com/images/dn_photo_swim229x275.jpg DuPont Sorona http://www.dupont.com/corp/news/daily/images/dn_photo_sorona270x270.jpg DuPont Sonona http://www.jobwerx.com/images/DuPont_sorona_apparel.jpg DuPont Sorona polymer; part of polymer is 1,3-propanediol from fermentation
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252. What Are Fossil Fuels’ Externalities? Source: Coghill Capital Management High Medium Low Fossil Fuel Costs (Billions $USD) $640.30 $365.00 $88.10 Total Fossil Fuel Costs $450.00 $237.00 $24.03 Healthcare Treatment and Mortality from Pollution $93.30 $53.00 $14.80 Environmental Monitoring and Clean Up $100.00 $75.00 $49.00 Military Base and Supply Route Security
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