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Potential Impact of Climate Change on Land Use in the Lao PDR Mike Salazar / Laura Collet A short study  implemented by th...
Components of the Report <ul><li>Climate Change </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Land Use Change  </li></ul><ul...
Climate Change
Climate Variables <ul><li>Change from 1901 until 2002 in: </li></ul><ul><li>Annual Min. Temperature </li></ul><ul><li>Annu...
Results 1901 – 2002: Annual Mean Temp. 2 <ul><li>Variable countrywide increase </li></ul><ul><li>Most of north & central a...
Results 2020 & 2050: Annual Mean Temp. 2
Results 2020 & 2050: Annual Mean Temp. 2 Example: Sayabouri  Annual Mean Temperature  1982 – 2002: 23.7 °C Modeled 2020: 2...
Climate  Change  in Laos: <ul><li>During the 20 th  Century:  </li></ul><ul><li>Based on analysis of the CRU dataset   (an...
Climate  Change  in Laos: <ul><li>During the 21 st  Century:  </li></ul><ul><li>Based on the IPCC A1b scenario and the mea...
Impacts
Sugarcane: Current & Future Suitability
Arabica coffee: Current & Future Suitability
Land Use Change
Assessing Land Use & Land Use Change <ul><li>Land Use Statistics </li></ul><ul><li>FAO statistics (1961 – 2007) (crops, ti...
Detecting Land Use Change – Results  2000 2009 Bare Land:  < 0.5 Dense Vegetation:  > 0.75
Detecting Land Use Change – Results  Example of Sayabouri Province 2000 2009 Maiz
Detecting Land Use Change – Results  Main Decrease:  -150 - -7 Main Increase:  20 - 100  Mean:  -2.32
Fire Patterns Spatial distribution of fire mapped over an elevation gradient by the years 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 & 2...
Spatial pattern of vegetation activity Geographical distribution of 5 clusters classified in a time series (8-years) and l...
Spatial pattern of vegetation activity Geographical distribution of 5 clusters classified in a time series (8-years) and l...
Conclusion and Recommendations <ul><ul><li>The resilience and sustainability of many farming systems is very low </li></ul...
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Potential Impact Of Climate Change On Land Use In The Lao Pdr

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  • A three-level hierarchical land use classification scheme based on the time series of forest/crop related land use change maps
  •   (A &amp; B) Comparison of variability NDVI data in vegetation covers on day 81/Mar. 22 for 2000 and 2009 series.
  • (C) Trends map depicting patterns of change vegetation. (D) Preliminary spatial pattern map of land cover on day 81 2009.
  • (C) Trends map depicting patterns of change vegetation. (D) Preliminary spatial pattern map of land cover on day 81 2009.
  • Transcript of "Potential Impact Of Climate Change On Land Use In The Lao Pdr"

    1. 1. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Land Use in the Lao PDR Mike Salazar / Laura Collet A short study implemented by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical – CIAT)
    2. 2. Components of the Report <ul><li>Climate Change </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Land Use Change </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts in the context of current land use </li></ul>
    3. 3. Climate Change
    4. 4. Climate Variables <ul><li>Change from 1901 until 2002 in: </li></ul><ul><li>Annual Min. Temperature </li></ul><ul><li>Annual Mean Temperature </li></ul><ul><li>Annual Max. Temperature </li></ul><ul><li>Annual Precipitation </li></ul><ul><li>April Precipitation </li></ul><ul><li>May Precipitation </li></ul><ul><li>October Precipitation </li></ul>
    5. 5. Results 1901 – 2002: Annual Mean Temp. 2 <ul><li>Variable countrywide increase </li></ul><ul><li>Most of north & central areas: 0.1 to 0.5 ºC/100 yr </li></ul><ul><li>Southern parts: 0.5 to 1.0ºC/100 yr </li></ul>
    6. 6. Results 2020 & 2050: Annual Mean Temp. 2
    7. 7. Results 2020 & 2050: Annual Mean Temp. 2 Example: Sayabouri Annual Mean Temperature 1982 – 2002: 23.7 °C Modeled 2020: 24.4 °C Modeled 2050: 25.7 °C
    8. 8. Climate Change in Laos: <ul><li>During the 20 th Century: </li></ul><ul><li>Based on analysis of the CRU dataset (and supported by local data and anecdotal evidence from villagers): </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature Significant increase in annual minimum, mean, & maximum temperatures throughout the country, but particularly in the south </li></ul><ul><li>Rainfall Significant trends in rainfall (some areas increasing, others decreasing), but not large compared to the inter-annual variations </li></ul>
    9. 9. Climate Change in Laos: <ul><li>During the 21 st Century: </li></ul><ul><li>Based on the IPCC A1b scenario and the mean of 7 Global Circulation models (GCMs): </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature Predict significant increase in annual minimum, mean, & maximum temperatures throughout the country, but particularly in the south </li></ul><ul><li>Rainfall Predict s ignificant and variable changes in rainfall (some areas increasing, others decreasing), but changes still small compared to the current variability in rainfall </li></ul>
    10. 10. Impacts
    11. 11. Sugarcane: Current & Future Suitability
    12. 12. Arabica coffee: Current & Future Suitability
    13. 13. Land Use Change
    14. 14. Assessing Land Use & Land Use Change <ul><li>Land Use Statistics </li></ul><ul><li>FAO statistics (1961 – 2007) (crops, timber, land-use) </li></ul><ul><li>MAF crop statistics for the Province (District) (1976-2008) </li></ul><ul><li>Land Use Change Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>MODIS 10-day 250 m NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) product for 2000-2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Compared 22 March 2000 with 22 March 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis of vegetation cover (NDVI) </li></ul><ul><li>Detection of vegetation change </li></ul>
    15. 15. Detecting Land Use Change – Results 2000 2009 Bare Land: < 0.5 Dense Vegetation: > 0.75
    16. 16. Detecting Land Use Change – Results Example of Sayabouri Province 2000 2009 Maiz
    17. 17. Detecting Land Use Change – Results Main Decrease: -150 - -7 Main Increase: 20 - 100 Mean: -2.32
    18. 18. Fire Patterns Spatial distribution of fire mapped over an elevation gradient by the years 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 & 2007, 2008 and 2009 in Xieng Ngeung and Botene districts
    19. 19. Spatial pattern of vegetation activity Geographical distribution of 5 clusters classified in a time series (8-years) and labeled to land coverage in Botene
    20. 20. Spatial pattern of vegetation activity Geographical distribution of 5 clusters classified in a time series (8-years) and labeled to land coverage in Xieng Ngeun
    21. 21. Conclusion and Recommendations <ul><ul><li>The resilience and sustainability of many farming systems is very low </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More integrated crop and livestock systems, with a much higher degree of resource management, are needed </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Such systems changes, while reducing risk and introducing greater resilience for the current situation will also prepare for the hotter and more water-challenged future predicted with climate change </li></ul></ul>
    22. 22. Thank you

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