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Potential Impact Of Climate Change On Land Use In The Lao Pdr
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Potential Impact Of Climate Change On Land Use In The Lao Pdr

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  • A three-level hierarchical land use classification scheme based on the time series of forest/crop related land use change maps
  •   (A & B) Comparison of variability NDVI data in vegetation covers on day 81/Mar. 22 for 2000 and 2009 series.
  • (C) Trends map depicting patterns of change vegetation. (D) Preliminary spatial pattern map of land cover on day 81 2009.
  • (C) Trends map depicting patterns of change vegetation. (D) Preliminary spatial pattern map of land cover on day 81 2009.

Potential Impact Of Climate Change On Land Use In The Lao Pdr Potential Impact Of Climate Change On Land Use In The Lao Pdr Presentation Transcript

  • Potential Impact of Climate Change on Land Use in the Lao PDR Mike Salazar / Laura Collet A short study implemented by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical – CIAT)
  • Components of the Report
    • Climate Change
    • Impacts
    • Land Use Change
    • Impacts in the context of current land use
  • Climate Change
  • Climate Variables
    • Change from 1901 until 2002 in:
    • Annual Min. Temperature
    • Annual Mean Temperature
    • Annual Max. Temperature
    • Annual Precipitation
    • April Precipitation
    • May Precipitation
    • October Precipitation
  • Results 1901 – 2002: Annual Mean Temp. 2
    • Variable countrywide increase
    • Most of north & central areas: 0.1 to 0.5 ºC/100 yr
    • Southern parts: 0.5 to 1.0ºC/100 yr
  • Results 2020 & 2050: Annual Mean Temp. 2
  • Results 2020 & 2050: Annual Mean Temp. 2 Example: Sayabouri Annual Mean Temperature 1982 – 2002: 23.7 °C Modeled 2020: 24.4 °C Modeled 2050: 25.7 °C
  • Climate Change in Laos:
    • During the 20 th Century:
    • Based on analysis of the CRU dataset (and supported by local data and anecdotal evidence from villagers):
    • Temperature Significant increase in annual minimum, mean, & maximum temperatures throughout the country, but particularly in the south
    • Rainfall Significant trends in rainfall (some areas increasing, others decreasing), but not large compared to the inter-annual variations
  • Climate Change in Laos:
    • During the 21 st Century:
    • Based on the IPCC A1b scenario and the mean of 7 Global Circulation models (GCMs):
    • Temperature Predict significant increase in annual minimum, mean, & maximum temperatures throughout the country, but particularly in the south
    • Rainfall Predict s ignificant and variable changes in rainfall (some areas increasing, others decreasing), but changes still small compared to the current variability in rainfall
  • Impacts
  • Sugarcane: Current & Future Suitability
  • Arabica coffee: Current & Future Suitability
  • Land Use Change
  • Assessing Land Use & Land Use Change
    • Land Use Statistics
    • FAO statistics (1961 – 2007) (crops, timber, land-use)
    • MAF crop statistics for the Province (District) (1976-2008)
    • Land Use Change Analysis
    • MODIS 10-day 250 m NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) product for 2000-2009
    • Compared 22 March 2000 with 22 March 2009
    • Analysis of vegetation cover (NDVI)
    • Detection of vegetation change
  • Detecting Land Use Change – Results 2000 2009 Bare Land: < 0.5 Dense Vegetation: > 0.75
  • Detecting Land Use Change – Results Example of Sayabouri Province 2000 2009 Maiz
  • Detecting Land Use Change – Results Main Decrease: -150 - -7 Main Increase: 20 - 100 Mean: -2.32
  • Fire Patterns Spatial distribution of fire mapped over an elevation gradient by the years 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 & 2007, 2008 and 2009 in Xieng Ngeung and Botene districts
  • Spatial pattern of vegetation activity Geographical distribution of 5 clusters classified in a time series (8-years) and labeled to land coverage in Botene
  • Spatial pattern of vegetation activity Geographical distribution of 5 clusters classified in a time series (8-years) and labeled to land coverage in Xieng Ngeun
  • Conclusion and Recommendations
      • The resilience and sustainability of many farming systems is very low
      • More integrated crop and livestock systems, with a much higher degree of resource management, are needed
      • Such systems changes, while reducing risk and introducing greater resilience for the current situation will also prepare for the hotter and more water-challenged future predicted with climate change
  • Thank you