Strategies for Startup Success Sim Simeonov Polaris Venture Partners [email_address] http://simeons.wordpress.com

The wiser speakers refused to talk on this subject

The wiser speakers refused to talk on this subject

The same strategies that have the highest probability of extreme success also have the highest probability of extreme failure --Guy Kawasaki http://simeons.wordpress.com/2007/02/21/guy-kawasaki-why-good-strategies-fail/

The same strategies that have the highest probability of extreme success also have the highest probability of extreme failure --Guy Kawasaki

How much risk did PayPal take on? Livingston, Jessica. Founders At Work. p6 (interview with Max Levchin)

How much risk did PayPal take on?

Poor analysis of the wrong data in a mythological context

Poor analysis of the wrong data in a mythological context

Limited or inaccurate data Correlation vs. causation Omitted variable bias Sensationalism

Limited or inaccurate data

Correlation vs. causation

Omitted variable bias

Sensationalism

Most of the industry’s effort is spent analyzing successes

Most of the industry’s effort is spent analyzing successes

Revisionist history due to egocentric ex post facto analysis

Revisionist history due to egocentric ex post facto analysis

Why Did YouTube Succeed? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nssfmTo7SZg (talk by YouTube co-founder Jawed Karim)

Why Did YouTube Succeed?

Success is often the result of avoiding failure by will or luck

Success is often the result of avoiding failure by will or luck

Why Do Startups Succeed and Fail? Sim Simeonov Polaris Venture Partners [email_address] http://simeons.wordpress.com

The more thoughtful speakers refused to talk on this subject

The more thoughtful speakers refused to talk on this subject

What do “success” and “failure” mean?

What do “success” and “failure” mean?

Company “A” raises $100+M of institutional capital and goes public at $2.4B valuation

Company “A” raises $100+M of institutional capital and goes public at $2.4B valuation

Company “F” raises $2M and sells for $20M

Company “F” raises $2M and sells for $20M

Company “M” raises 500K and shuts down six months later

Company “M” raises 500K and shuts down six months later

Innovation? Market share? Revenues? Impact?

Innovation?

Market share?

Revenues?

Impact?

Employees? Execs? Founders? Angel investors? Institutional investors?

Employees?

Execs?

Founders?

Angel investors?

Institutional investors?

Efficient experimentation is critical to any evolutionary system

Efficient experimentation is critical to any evolutionary system

Success and failure are not useful analysis targets

Success and failure are not useful analysis targets

The Startup Environment Sim Simeonov Polaris Venture Partners [email_address] http://simeons.wordpress.com

Emily is a helluva persuader

Emily is a helluva persuader

Experienced investors National focus $3B under management Diversified across stage & sectors Active partner with entrepreneurs Great track record

Experienced investors

National focus

$3B under management

Diversified across stage & sectors

Active partner with entrepreneurs

Great track record

The technology industry has changed substantially in the past few years

The technology industry has changed substantially in the past few years

Technology

$1,000M $1,000M $100M $100M $10M $40M The leader The #3 player

Winners used to be selected by the market. Now they are anointed through M&A

Winners used to be selected by the market. Now they are anointed through M&A

How successful would Flickr have been without Yahoo?

How successful would Flickr have been without Yahoo?

Sustainable differentiation and solid execution

Sustainable differentiation and solid execution

Superior execution Cut the right deal(s) Network effects

Superior execution

Cut the right deal(s)

Network effects

Protectable technology enables a defensible business model

Protectable technology enables a defensible business model

It is the best of times, it is the worst of times

It is the best of times, it is the worst of times

Sim Simeonov Polaris Venture Partners [email_address] http://simeons.wordpress.com

Sim Simeonov

Polaris Venture Partners

[email_address]

http://simeons.wordpress.com