Strategies for Startup Success

Strategies for Startup Success Sim Simeonov Polaris Venture Partners [email_address] http://simeons.wordpress.com

The wiser speakers refused to talk on this subject

The same strategies that have the highest probability of extreme success also have the highest probability of extreme failure --Guy Kawasaki
http://simeons.wordpress.com/2007/02/21/guy-kawasaki-why-good-strategies-fail/

How much risk did PayPal take on?
Livingston, Jessica. Founders At Work. p6 (interview with Max Levchin)

Poor analysis of the wrong data in a mythological context

Limited or inaccurate data
Correlation vs. causation
Omitted variable bias
Sensationalism

Most of the industry’s effort is spent analyzing successes

Revisionist history due to egocentric ex post facto analysis

Why Did YouTube Succeed?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nssfmTo7SZg (talk by YouTube co-founder Jawed Karim)

Success is often the result of avoiding failure by will or luck

Why Do Startups Succeed and Fail? Sim Simeonov Polaris Venture Partners [email_address] http://simeons.wordpress.com

The more thoughtful speakers refused to talk on this subject

What do “success” and “failure” mean?

Company “A” raises $100+M of institutional capital and goes public at $2.4B valuation

Company “F” raises $2M and sells for $20M

Company “M” raises 500K and shuts down six months later

Innovation?
Market share?
Revenues?
Impact?

Employees?
Execs?
Founders?
Angel investors?
Institutional investors?

Efficient experimentation is critical to any evolutionary system

Success and failure are not useful analysis targets

The Startup Environment Sim Simeonov Polaris Venture Partners [email_address] http://simeons.wordpress.com

Emily is a helluva persuader

Experienced investors
National focus
$3B under management
Diversified across stage & sectors
Active partner with entrepreneurs
Great track record

The technology industry has changed substantially in the past few years

Technology

$1,000M $1,000M $100M $100M $10M $40M The leader The #3 player

Winners used to be selected by the market. Now they are anointed through M&A

How successful would Flickr have been without Yahoo?

Sustainable differentiation and solid execution

Superior execution
Cut the right deal(s)
Network effects

Protectable technology enables a defensible business model

It is the best of times, it is the worst of times

Sim Simeonov
Polaris Venture Partners
[email_address]
http://simeons.wordpress.com

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Strategies for Startup Success

by guest68465b on Feb 08, 2008

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Strategies for Startup Success — Presentation Transcript