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  • Moss-3dec2002

    1. 1. The Climate Change Science Program’s Strategic Plan for Climate and Global Change Research Richard H. Moss Climate Change Science Program
    2. 2. This Presentation <ul><li>Mission of Climate Change Science Program </li></ul><ul><li>Process for developing the Strategic Plan </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Plan overview </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Near-term (2-4 year) climate change decision support resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long-term global change research </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Program Management </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Request for comments </li></ul>
    3. 3. CCSP Mission <ul><li>Provide science-based information on climate and global change to inform public debate, policymaking, and management of natural resources </li></ul>
    4. 4. Science-Based Questions Confronting Society <ul><li>With what confidence can we attribute observed changes in climate to human activities? </li></ul><ul><li>How will the Earth system respond to natural variability and human-induced changes in the future? </li></ul><ul><li>How sensitive and adaptable are ecosystems—and related socio-economic systems—to interacting changes in climate and other environmental conditions? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the projected costs and benefits of potential response strategies? </li></ul>
    5. 5. Resource Management and Science—Some Examples <ul><li>Anticipating effects of pollution from remote locations through long-range transport processes </li></ul><ul><li>Linking models of watersheds, agricultural outputs, and economic activity to assess tradeoffs of competing uses </li></ul><ul><li>Evaluating the sensitivity of forest growth to altered temperature and precipitation </li></ul><ul><li>Analyzing the role of climate information in managing energy supply/demand </li></ul>
    6. 6. CCSP Science for Society and Decision Support Resource Management Models <ul><li>Outcomes </li></ul><ul><li>New Understanding </li></ul><ul><li>Public Debate </li></ul><ul><li>Policy Decisions </li></ul><ul><li>Management Decisions </li></ul><ul><li>Educational Resources </li></ul>Scenario Comparison and Evaluation Observations Reports and Findings <ul><li>Research </li></ul><ul><li>Atmosphere </li></ul><ul><li>Climate </li></ul><ul><li>Water cycle </li></ul><ul><li>Land use/cover </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon cycle </li></ul><ul><li>Ecosystems </li></ul><ul><li>Human Dimensions </li></ul>Climate and Earth Science Questions Outputs Inputs Decision Support Resources National, Sectoral, and Regional Issues
    7. 7. Both Focus and Breadth are Needed to Meet CCSP Objectives <ul><li>Focus on near-term climate change decision support resources (CCRI) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Address key climate change uncertainties and their potential implications </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Continue research on related global change issues (USGCRP) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Full range of global change issues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sustained research for issues and products requiring more than 2-4 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Providing foundation for future applications </li></ul></ul>
    8. 9. Strategic Plan Development Process <ul><li>National Research Council (NRC) provides ongoing advice </li></ul><ul><li>Federal scientists and program managers prepare draft </li></ul><ul><li>Stakeholders provide input for draft plan at CCSP workshop and during comment period </li></ul><ul><li>CCSP revises plan based on comments </li></ul><ul><li>Revised plan submitted to Congress and NRC </li></ul>
    9. 10. Overview of 2002 Draft <ul><li>Part I: Climate change decision support resources (CCRI) </li></ul><ul><li>Part II: Broad Earth system research (USGCRP) </li></ul><ul><li>Part III: Communications, international cooperation, and management </li></ul>
    10. 11. Climate Change Focused Decision Support (CCRI) <ul><li>Research Focused on Key Climate Change Uncertainties </li></ul><ul><li>Climate Quality Observations, Monitoring, and Data Management  </li></ul><ul><li>Decision Support Resources </li></ul>
    11. 12. Research Focused on Key Climate Change Uncertainties <ul><li>What are the relative contributions of different aerosols to climate change? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the magnitudes and distributions of North American carbon sources and sinks, and what are the processes controlling their dynamics? </li></ul><ul><li>How much of expected climate change is the consequence of feedback processes? </li></ul>
    12. 13. Climate Quality Observations, Monitoring, and Data Management <ul><li>How has global climate changed over the past fifty years or more, and what level of confidence do existing data provide in attributing change? </li></ul><ul><li>What is the current state of the climate, how does it compare with the past, and how can observations be improved? </li></ul><ul><li>How real are the differences in surface and tropospheric temperature trends? </li></ul><ul><li>How do we improve observations of biological and ecological systems to understand their response to climate variability and change? </li></ul><ul><li>How accessible is the climate record? </li></ul>
    13. 14. Decision Support Resources <ul><li>Focus on both national policy analysis and operational resource management </li></ul><ul><li>Analytic techniques for serving decision needs (including scenario development) </li></ul><ul><li>Applied climate modeling </li></ul><ul><li>Resources for risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty </li></ul>
    14. 15. Broad, Ongoing Earth System Research (USGCRP) <ul><li>Atmospheric Composition </li></ul><ul><li>Climate Variability and Change </li></ul><ul><li>Water Cycle </li></ul><ul><li>Land Use/Land Cover Change </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon Cycle </li></ul><ul><li>Ecosystems </li></ul><ul><li>Human Contributions and Responses to Global Environmental Change </li></ul><ul><li>Grand Challenges in Modeling, Observations, and Information Systems </li></ul>
    15. 16. Climate Variability and Change: Key Questions <ul><li>What is the sensitivity of climate change projections to feedbacks in the climate system? </li></ul><ul><li>To what extent can predictions of climate variability and projections of long-term climate change be improved? </li></ul><ul><li>What is the likelihood of abrupt climate changes? </li></ul><ul><li>Whether and how are the frequencies, intensities, and locations of extreme events altered by natural climate variations and human-induced climate changes? </li></ul><ul><li>How can interactions between producers and users of climate information be structured to ensure essential information is identified and provided? </li></ul>
    16. 17. Research Elements Include Societal Interactions <ul><li>Atmospheric Composition Q3: Effects of long-range transport of pollution on regional air quality, crops, and ecosystems? </li></ul><ul><li>Water Cycle Q5: Implications of global water cycle variability and change for human societies and ecosystems? </li></ul><ul><li>Land Use/Land Cover Change: All questions assess interactions of society and environment, either driving forces or effects </li></ul>
    17. 18. …Societal Interactions <ul><li>Carbon Cycle Q6: How will the Earth system respond to options for managing carbon, and what scientific information is needed for evaluating these options? </li></ul><ul><li>Ecosystems Q2 and 3: Effects of global change on ecosystem goods and services, and options for management? </li></ul><ul><li>Human Contributions…: Driving forces, and factors affecting sensitivity and adaptation (including health effects) </li></ul>
    18. 19. Program Management <ul><li>Distributed program </li></ul><ul><li>Mechanisms </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scientific guidance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interagency planning and implementation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CCSP/SGCR role </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Set and refine integrated program goals/priorities </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Review all programs that contribute to climate and global change science </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Interact with external advisory groups </li></ul></ul></ul>
    19. 20. CCSP Workshop: Opportunity for Comments <ul><li>Information gathering for further program development, e.g., </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Does the proposed focus meet the Nation’s needs for information? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Which proposed deliverables are most useful? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Is the proposed program feasible? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Where are there gaps and overlaps? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How can synthesis and integration be improved? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>… </li></ul></ul>
    20. 21. <ul><li>Thank you! </li></ul>