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Moss-3dec2002 Moss-3dec2002 Presentation Transcript

  • The Climate Change Science Program’s Strategic Plan for Climate and Global Change Research Richard H. Moss Climate Change Science Program
  • This Presentation
    • Mission of Climate Change Science Program
    • Process for developing the Strategic Plan
    • Strategic Plan overview
      • Near-term (2-4 year) climate change decision support resources
      • Long-term global change research
      • Program Management
    • Request for comments
  • CCSP Mission
    • Provide science-based information on climate and global change to inform public debate, policymaking, and management of natural resources
  • Science-Based Questions Confronting Society
    • With what confidence can we attribute observed changes in climate to human activities?
    • How will the Earth system respond to natural variability and human-induced changes in the future?
    • How sensitive and adaptable are ecosystems—and related socio-economic systems—to interacting changes in climate and other environmental conditions?
    • What are the projected costs and benefits of potential response strategies?
  • Resource Management and Science—Some Examples
    • Anticipating effects of pollution from remote locations through long-range transport processes
    • Linking models of watersheds, agricultural outputs, and economic activity to assess tradeoffs of competing uses
    • Evaluating the sensitivity of forest growth to altered temperature and precipitation
    • Analyzing the role of climate information in managing energy supply/demand
  • CCSP Science for Society and Decision Support Resource Management Models
    • Outcomes
    • New Understanding
    • Public Debate
    • Policy Decisions
    • Management Decisions
    • Educational Resources
    Scenario Comparison and Evaluation Observations Reports and Findings
    • Research
    • Atmosphere
    • Climate
    • Water cycle
    • Land use/cover
    • Carbon cycle
    • Ecosystems
    • Human Dimensions
    Climate and Earth Science Questions Outputs Inputs Decision Support Resources National, Sectoral, and Regional Issues
  • Both Focus and Breadth are Needed to Meet CCSP Objectives
    • Focus on near-term climate change decision support resources (CCRI)
      • Address key climate change uncertainties and their potential implications
    • Continue research on related global change issues (USGCRP)
      • Full range of global change issues
      • Sustained research for issues and products requiring more than 2-4 years
      • Providing foundation for future applications
  • Strategic Plan Development Process
    • National Research Council (NRC) provides ongoing advice
    • Federal scientists and program managers prepare draft
    • Stakeholders provide input for draft plan at CCSP workshop and during comment period
    • CCSP revises plan based on comments
    • Revised plan submitted to Congress and NRC
  • Overview of 2002 Draft
    • Part I: Climate change decision support resources (CCRI)
    • Part II: Broad Earth system research (USGCRP)
    • Part III: Communications, international cooperation, and management
  • Climate Change Focused Decision Support (CCRI)
    • Research Focused on Key Climate Change Uncertainties
    • Climate Quality Observations, Monitoring, and Data Management 
    • Decision Support Resources
  • Research Focused on Key Climate Change Uncertainties
    • What are the relative contributions of different aerosols to climate change?
    • What are the magnitudes and distributions of North American carbon sources and sinks, and what are the processes controlling their dynamics?
    • How much of expected climate change is the consequence of feedback processes?
  • Climate Quality Observations, Monitoring, and Data Management
    • How has global climate changed over the past fifty years or more, and what level of confidence do existing data provide in attributing change?
    • What is the current state of the climate, how does it compare with the past, and how can observations be improved?
    • How real are the differences in surface and tropospheric temperature trends?
    • How do we improve observations of biological and ecological systems to understand their response to climate variability and change?
    • How accessible is the climate record?
  • Decision Support Resources
    • Focus on both national policy analysis and operational resource management
    • Analytic techniques for serving decision needs (including scenario development)
    • Applied climate modeling
    • Resources for risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty
  • Broad, Ongoing Earth System Research (USGCRP)
    • Atmospheric Composition
    • Climate Variability and Change
    • Water Cycle
    • Land Use/Land Cover Change
    • Carbon Cycle
    • Ecosystems
    • Human Contributions and Responses to Global Environmental Change
    • Grand Challenges in Modeling, Observations, and Information Systems
  • Climate Variability and Change: Key Questions
    • What is the sensitivity of climate change projections to feedbacks in the climate system?
    • To what extent can predictions of climate variability and projections of long-term climate change be improved?
    • What is the likelihood of abrupt climate changes?
    • Whether and how are the frequencies, intensities, and locations of extreme events altered by natural climate variations and human-induced climate changes?
    • How can interactions between producers and users of climate information be structured to ensure essential information is identified and provided?
  • Research Elements Include Societal Interactions
    • Atmospheric Composition Q3: Effects of long-range transport of pollution on regional air quality, crops, and ecosystems?
    • Water Cycle Q5: Implications of global water cycle variability and change for human societies and ecosystems?
    • Land Use/Land Cover Change: All questions assess interactions of society and environment, either driving forces or effects
  • …Societal Interactions
    • Carbon Cycle Q6: How will the Earth system respond to options for managing carbon, and what scientific information is needed for evaluating these options?
    • Ecosystems Q2 and 3: Effects of global change on ecosystem goods and services, and options for management?
    • Human Contributions…: Driving forces, and factors affecting sensitivity and adaptation (including health effects)
  • Program Management
    • Distributed program
    • Mechanisms
      • Scientific guidance
      • Interagency planning and implementation
      • CCSP/SGCR role
        • Set and refine integrated program goals/priorities
        • Review all programs that contribute to climate and global change science
        • Interact with external advisory groups
  • CCSP Workshop: Opportunity for Comments
    • Information gathering for further program development, e.g.,
      • Does the proposed focus meet the Nation’s needs for information?
      • Which proposed deliverables are most useful?
      • Is the proposed program feasible?
      • Where are there gaps and overlaps?
      • How can synthesis and integration be improved?
    • Thank you!