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  1. 1. Global Climate Change Issues, Trends, Outlook Community Advisory Council Terry Dressler, Air Pollution Control Officer December 14, 2005
  2. 2. The Greenhouse Effect
  3. 3. 2002 California Greenhouse Gases (493 million metric tons) HFCs Nitrous Oxide 3% 7% Methane 6% Carbon Dioxide 84%
  4. 4. 2002 California Greenhouse Gas Emission Sources Carbon Dioxide Transportation — 41% Fossil fuel combustion Industrial — 23% Methane Electric Power — 20% Fossil fuels Ag & Forestry — 8% Landfills, agriculture Nitrous Oxide Others — 8% Agriculture, cars Hydrofluorocarbons Refrigerants, solvents
  5. 5. Climate Change Indicators Average temperature changes Earth’s temperature increased by 1.5ºF during the 20th century 10 warmest years of the last century all occurred with the last 15 years 2001, 2002 and 2003 were three of the hottest years ever recorded Rising sea level – 7 inches in California since 1850 Shrinking snow pack – Spring runoff decreased by 10% Glacial retreat
  6. 6. Example of Glacial Retreat – Glacier National Park 1911 - 2000
  7. 7. Potential Climate Change Impacts Health Air quality, weather-related mortality, infectious diseases Agriculture Crop yields, irrigation demands Forests Forest composition, geographic range, forest productivity Water resources Water supply, water quality, competition for water resources Coastal areas Beach erosion, inundation of coast wetlands, costs to protect coastal communities Species and natural areas Loss of habitat and species
  8. 8. Climate Change Projections for California – Next 100 Years Greenhouse gas emissions are anticipated to rise by 32% between 1990 and 2020 Projections for warming suggest a global increase of 2.5ºF - 10.4ºF by 2100, with warming in California even higher Increased temperatures will result in more ground- level ozone formation Reduced snow-pack and stream flow in the Sierra Nevada will affect water supplies
  9. 9. U.S. Impacts The U.S. is responsible for about 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions to date, and our emissions continue to increase.
  10. 10. Current Programs to Address Climate Change International Kyoto Protocol emission targets — went into effect on February 16, 2005 without US participation Cities for Climate Change Protection milestones National Research Other States – Climate Action Plans and inventories
  11. 11. Current Programs to Address Climate Change California Emission reduction targets - Signed June 1, 2005 Goals: Reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 2000 levels by 2010 to 1990 levels by 2020 to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 California is the first state to regulate motor vehicle greenhouse gas emissions Reductions phased in starting model year 2009 Expected emissions reductions By 2020: 18% GHG emissions, 6 tons/day of ozone forming pollution By 2030: 27% GHG emissions, 10 tons/day of ozone forming pollution
  12. 12. Current Programs to Address Climate Change California Climate Registry Voluntary effort with industries and utilities to inventory and track their GHG emissions California Energy Commission and Public Utilities Commission Energy efficiency and conservation measures, Renewable Portfolio Standard
  13. 13. Current Programs to Address Climate Change Local Air districts criteria pollutant reduction programs also reduce greenhouse gases Public outreach programs energy efficiency, alternate transportation Bay Area AQMD, San Luis Obispo APCD Adopted programs to inventory and address greenhouse gas emissions Santa Barbara County APCD Public outreach, plans to develop database structure next year
  14. 14. Global Climate Change Questions, Discussion, Recommendations